Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Automation
OpportunityorDisruption?
January18,2017
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Artificial intelligence
Machine Learning
Automation
Robotics
• Semantics
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• RecentTechnicalCapabilityAdvancement
u Pattern Recognition• MachineLearning-supervised,unsupervised,reinforcementü Collecting,analyzing,recognizingàPredicting,prescribing,acting
Source–“TheSecondMachineAge”,E.BrynjolfssonandA.McAfee,2014
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• RecentTechnicalCapabilityAdvancement
u Complex Communication• Audio,Visual,Kinestheticü Interactionthroughspeech,display,touch
Source–“TheSecondMachineAge”,E.BrynjolfssonandA.McAfee,2014
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• RecentTechnicalCapabilityAdvancement
u Digital Fluency• Translationü Instantaneouscapability,broadscopeofcombinations
Source–“TheSecondMachineAge”,E.BrynjolfssonandA.McAfee,2014
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• RecentTechnicalCapabilityAdvancement
u Robotics and ChatBots• Mobility,navigation,interaction–machine-to-machine,machine-to-humanü Automatedfactories,warehouses,assemblylines;Customerservice
Source–“TheSecondMachineAge”,E.BrynjolfssonandA.McAfee,2014
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• RecentTechnicalCapabilityAdvancement
u Writing• Prose,reportsü Buildsummariesbyconsuminglarge,detaileddocuments
Source–“TheSecondMachineAge”,E.BrynjolfssonandA.McAfee,2014
www.beagle.ai
https://automatedinsights.com/wordsmith
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• RecentTechnicalCapabilityAdvancement
u 3D Printing• Ink,Metal,Plastic,Concrete,Cellsü Prototyping,Toys,Manufacturingreplacementparts,humanbodyparts
Source–“TheSecondMachineAge”,E.BrynjolfssonandA.McAfee,2014
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• FactorsDrivingtheIncreasingPaceofChangeu Exponential Growth of Computing
• Moore’slaw–doublingofcomponentsonanintegratedcircuit• We’reinthe“secondhalfofthechessboard”(1965-???)• Appliestoprocessors,memory,sensors
ü SimultaneousLocalizationAndMapping(SLAM)
Source–“TheSecondMachineAge”,E.BrynjolfssonandA.McAfee,2014
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• FactorsDrivingtheIncreasingPaceofChange
u Digitization of Everything • TheInternetofThings(IoT)–volume,velocity,variety• Theeconomicsofbits–non-rival,closetozeromarginalcostofreproduction• Approachingyottabytesofinformation(1024)ü Waze–digitalmaps,GPS,sensor,social
Source–“TheSecondMachineAge”,E.BrynjolfssonandA.McAfee,2014
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• FactorsDrivingtheIncreasingPaceofChange
u Recombinant Innovation• Productivity,GrowthandGeneralPurposeTechnologies• Theprimaryconstrainttogrowthistheabilitytogothroughallcombinations• Businessmodelsthatarenewand/ortechnology-enabledü Affinova–crowdsourcing,choice-modelingalgorithms
Source–“TheSecondMachineAge”,E.BrynjolfssonandA.McAfee,2014
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Discussion–whatareyourfeelingsaboutArtificialIntelligence?
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• Wherethethoughtleadersare…
Source-http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03/elon-musk-billion-dollar-crusade-to-stop-ai-space-x
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Source–CBInsights:"TheStateofArtificialIntelligenceReport”,April2017,
• Wheretheinvestmentsare…
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• Whattheresearchsays…
Study PerspectiveFO OccupationsAGZ TasksPWC Hybrid
Source–“UKEconomicOutlook,Section4:WilltheRobotsStealOurJobs?”,PWC,March2017
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24% of the 702 jobs listed had at least a .9 probability of automation
Source–“TheFutureofEmployment:HowSusceptibleareJobstoComputerisation”,C.FreyandM.Osborne,Sept2013
• Whattheresearchsays(continued)…
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Exchanging informationTraining othersPresenting……….Planning own activitiesPlanning activities of others……….Reading instructionsWriting articlesFilling out formsCalculating shares or percent………Using programming languageUsing communication software
Source–“TheRiskofAutomationforJobsinOECDCountries”,M.Arntz,T.GregoryandU.Zierahn,June2016
• Whattheresearchsays(continued)…
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• Whattheresearchsays(continued)…
Source–“AFutureThatWorks:Automation,EmploymentandProductivity”,McKinseyGlobalInstitute,January2017
About half the activities…have the potential to be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technology…..
While less than 5% of all occupations can be automated entirely….about 60% of all occupations have at least 30% of constituent activities that could be automated….
More occupations will change than will be automated away.
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• Samplingrecentheadlines…
http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/26/technology/future/farming-ai-tomatoes/index.html
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• Samplingrecentheadlines…
https://consumerist.com/2017/03/29/yum-brands-ceo-robots-will-take-over-fast-food-jobs-in-next-10-years/
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• Samplingrecentheadlines…
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/business/dealbook/blackrock-actively-managed-funds-computer-models.html
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• Samplingrecentheadlines…
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/uber-freight-its-just-truck-drivers-whose-jobs-risk-john-mcdermott
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• Samplingrecentheadlines…
http://www.npr.org/2017/01/16/510096767/robot-lawyer-makes-the-case-against-parking-tickets
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• Workforceview…
http://fortune.com/2017/05/01/automation-jobs-will-put-10000-humans-to-work-study-says/
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• Workforceview…
https://www.cbinsights.com/research/jobs-automation-artificial-intelligence-risk/?utm_source=CB+Insights+Newsletter&utm_campaign=2457e5fe09-Top_Research_Briefs_10_14_2017&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_9dc0513989-2457e5fe09-89185621
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• Workforceview…
Source–https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/
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Discussion–whatwillbetheimpactonyourworkforce?
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• Whattheresearchsays(continued)…
Source–“ReshapingBusinessWithArtificialIntelligence”,MITSloanManagementReview,Fall2017
The gap between ambition and execution is large at most companies.
Our research reveals large gaps between today’s leaders – companies that already understand and have adopted AI – and laggards.
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• Samplingrecentheadlines…
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mariyayao/2017/08/08/industrial-ai-factories-of-future/#113be5ba128e
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• Workforceview…
http://fortune.com/2017/05/01/automation-jobs-will-put-10000-humans-to-work-study-says/
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• Workforceview…
https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/artificial-intelligence-jobs/
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• Workforceview…
https://www.indeed.com/q-Artificial-Intelligence-jobs.html
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• Workforceview…
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• Workforceview…
https://www.udacity.com/ai
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• Workforceview…
https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2017/09/12/author-discusses-new-book-about-making-college-graduates-robot-proof-era-artificial
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• Workforceview…
https://www.wired.com/story/googles-learning-software-learns-to-write-learning-software/
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Discussion–wherewillyourArtificialIntelligencecompetenciescomefrom?
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• Abalancedperspective…
Source–“TheSevenDeadlySinsofAIPredictions”,RodneyBrooks,MITTechnologyReview,Vol120|No6
1. OverestimatingandUnderestimating2. ImaginingMagic3. PerformanceversusCompetence4. SuitcaseWords5. Exponentials6. HollywoodScenarios7. SpeedofDeployment
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• Apersonalperspective…
Networks
CoreSystems
Web,Mobile,Social,BI
ArtificialIntelligence
Four eras of Technology advancement…
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• Apersonalperspective…
Some technology trends will continue…
ü Decreasingphysicalhardwareon-premiseinthedatacenter(Hardwarevs.Software)Cloud,SoftwareDefinedNetworks,OpenNetworkAutomationPlatform,etc.
ü IncreasingtechnologyoutsideoftheITdepartment(ITvs.OT)DigitalProperties–marketing/salesIoT,AR/VR-everywhereRobotics,Chatbots–operations,backofficeAnalytics,MachineLearning–operations,backoffice
ü Increasingrequirements(andthereforedemand)fortechnology(More…)
Moredevices,moresensors,moredata,morecapabilities,moreintegration,moreusers,moreusage
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• Apersonalperspective…
Some things are constant with Technology…
ü Technologyisnotastrategy(hint:itcanbeameanstosupportstrategy)
ü Technologyisnotanobjective(hint:itcanbepartofthescopetoachieveanobjective)
ü TechnologyIQisfundamental(hint:itsinherentcomplexityfavors“whitebox”over“blackbox”management)
ü Technologyispartofalargersystem(hint:don’tforgetabouttalent,culture,process,metrics,rewards,etc.)
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• Whatdoyouthink?
What will this latest advancement in automation mean for your:
Organization?
Industry? Region?
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• ThankYou!Kurt HahlbeckHugo [email protected]/in/kurthahlbeck
Oliver BuechseMy Strategy [email protected]/in/oliverbuechse
AdvancingAIWisconsin.com