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ASEAN and Great Powers:
Lessons and Challenges AheadBy
Kavi [email protected]
17 August, 2010Chulalongkorn University(for classroom used ony)
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Todays lectureFirst Session:
-Panoramic view: Political and Security cooperation in Aseansince its inception in1967
-Asean engages great powers: Asean Regional Forum, newregional architecture, expanded East Asia Summit (outcomeof Hanoi meeting, July 19-23, 2010)
Second Session :
- Asean Security Community (ASC) and other regional securityorganizations
-Key issues: Terrorism, drugs and human trafficking, nuclearproliferation (North Korea, Burma), South China Sea,Maritime Security
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If we dont hang together,we will be hung separately.
S Rajaratnam
Singapore FM, 1967
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Four Asean instruments on
political and security cooperation The Bangkok Declaration: first Asean document,
political commitment (respect for justice, rule of law)to ensure stability and security, free from outside
interferences (but need in a clear term!) The Bali Declaration of Asean Concord: formalized
political cooperation, envisioned a balance in political,economic and functional cooperation (1967-76)
Declaration on the Zone of Peace, Freedom and
Neutrality (ZOPFAN): imbalance prevailed, politicalcooperation slower pace (1976-1997) The Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in
Southeast Asia (1976): fail as a conflict resolutionmechanism but useful as diplomatic tools
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Asean Declaration 1967Countries of Southeast Asia share
primary responsibility for strengthening
economic and social stability of theregion and for ensuring their peacefuland progressive national development.
Our security depends on our ability to provideall the goods of life for our people and tobuild societies which are just and fair toall.Malaysian PM Hussein Onn
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ASEAN CONCORD (1976) Expanding political cooperation Adopting principles for regional stability and a
program of action for political cooperation. Holding ASEAN summits, settling intraregional
disputes by peaceful means as soon aspossible
Improving the ASEAN machinery tostrengthen political cooperation
Strengthening solidarity by promoting theharmonization of views (still difficult today!)
Coordinating positions and common action
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Zone of peace, freedom and
neutrality (ZOPFAN) ZOPFAN established 1971 as one of the earliest concepts
of Asean for security
Seek recognition ofZOPFAN and broaden the areas of
cooperation to increase solidarity and closer relationshipbetween Asean and outside world
recognizesthe right of every state, large or small, tolead its national existence free from outside interferencein its internal affairs
ZOPFAN later included concept of national resilience:
nation security through self-help and self-reliance 1983 Indonesia/Malaysia proposed SEANWFZ as part ofZOPFAN
After September 11, 2001, less mentioning ofZOPFAN
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ASEAN Concord II (2003) nurture common values--habit of consultation
to discuss politicalissues
willing to share information on matters ofcommon concern: environmental degradation,maritime security cooperation,
enhance defense cooperation in ASEAN,
develop a set of socio-political values and
principles settle long-standing disputes through peaceful
means (reemphasis of Concord I)
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1976 Treaty of Amity & Cooperation Mutual respect for the independence,
sovereignty, territorial integrity and nationalidentity of all nations;
Right of every state to lead its nationalexistence free from external interference,subversion or coercion;
Noninterference in the internal affairs of one
another; Settlement of disputes by peaceful means; Renunciation of the threat or use of forces
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Update on TAC signatories China, India signed in 2003, Japan in Nov. 2004 South Korea, Mongolia, E Timor, Australia in 2005 France acceded Jan 2007, North Korea in July 2008 US July 2009 Canadas and Turkeys ascension to TAC in 23 July
2010 in Hanoi EU still has to wait being the first international
organization to accede to TAC (Protocol 3 not yetcompletely rafified)
28 signatories in all Future ofTAC with further amendments?
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Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapon
Free Zone (SEANWFZ) Signed in Dec 1995 in Bangkok, SEANWFZ
aims: nuclear disarmament, promoteinternational peace and security, preventenvironmental pollution, hazards posed byradio-active waste/other toxic materials.
SEANWFZ treaty came into force in 1997.China first to express to accede but Asean is
reluctant Asean wants all big 5 to sign SEANWFZ at
once (sticky issue is access of aircraft carrierswith nuclear weapons on board)
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Post 1976:security
cooperation The Cambodian conflict was the only Asean
political agenda
Highlighted political differences within Asean(Kuantan principles, called for compromisewith VN on Cambodia)
Reinforcing principle of non-interference Asean vs Indochina over new regional order
Fear of VN as Asians second largest armedforces (need to bring in VN into Asean at
once)
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Dialogue system (plus one) At summit in 1977, Asean expanded ties with
Western countries that had money, technological
know-how, economic/ political clouts EU was first in 1977 followed by Japan as dialogue
partners (Japan-Asean celebrates 25th anniversary in2003)
An instrument for North-South and South-South talksand cooperation
Political, security and economic issues dominatedtalks with dialogue partners (Cambodian conflictsfrom 1975-90, followed by Burma, terrorism andfrom now could be South China Sea)
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Norm-setting in Asean A region order through the TAC i.e. the Declaration
on the Conduct of Parties in South China Sea in 1992
Interstate relations with Dialogue partners expanded
through the post ministerial conferences Indonesia-Malaysia settled Sipadan-Ligitan,
Singapore-Malaysia over Pedro Blanca thru WC
Indonesia and Malaysia help the Philippines on theMoro, Thailand and the Philippines help Indonesia on
Aceh--with Asean/EU peacekeeping forces Thailand and Malaysia might go to the world court to
settle their demarcation line in Sugai Golok
Thai-Cambodia over the Preah Vihear TempledisputesUN or Asean?
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Aseans intervention in Cambodia
-Using its mechanism for conflict resolution,peace making/peace-buildingthe Asean
Way-Resolving their conflicts through commonendeavorsThailand, Singapore
-Facing the reality of weak interstate
relationship within the grouping-Impacts of crisis in Burma, Thailand (April-May 2010) over Asean solidarity
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Asean Regional Forum (ARF) Set up in 1994 for Asean, Asia and Pacific to
foster dialogue/consultations on security issues
To build up confidence, exercise preventive
diplomacy (currently) and conflict resolution Only security-wide forum in the region
Decided by consensus and non-interference
27 members: 10 Asean and 17 non-Asean nations
East Timor was admitted in July, 2005
China has become the driving force of ARF?
Future of ARF: Vision statement
Other competing regional mechanisms: Six PartyTalks, Shanghai Cooperation Organization
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ARF criteria (1994) Commitment to Asean decisions and norms
Has geographic footprint of key ARF
activities (i.e. Northeast and Southeast Asiaand Oceania).
Gradual expansion with moratorium stillinplace
Consultations and consensus needed andapproved by Asean
But in July 2004, Pakistan was admitted asmember, change of geographicalfootprints
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Reinventing ARF Less talk, more action
Give the chair more power
Move to the prevention diplomacy Allow defence officials to participate
Allow non-Asean to host the ARF
Discuss democracy and human rights
Move towards conflict resolutions
The Shangri-la process in Singapore
Asean Defence Ministerial Meeting
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Key Asean security issues Transnational issues: climate change, disastrous
management, pandemics, terrorism, environment,human and arms smugglings, food and energy
security,haze, HIV/aids, anti-narcotics Nuclear proliferation (N Korea and Burma/The Korean
Peninsula) The Burmese political situation South China Sea/Maritime security War on terrorContainer Security Initiative (CSI) and
Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) Mekong sub-regional development with major powers
involvement i.e. China, US, Japan
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South China Sea syndrome Territorial disputes involved Malaysia, Brunei,the
Philippines, Vietnam with China/Taiwan 1992: ASEAN urged parties concerned to exercise
restraint to create atmosphere of trust ASEAN wants to resolve sovereignty/jurisdictional
issues through peaceful means The Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the
South China Sea (DOC), signed in Phnom Penh,
December 2002 is currently the mechanism China localized and kept the issue within the region
between China and Asean claimants VN current Asean chair is keen on multilaterizing SCS China wants to work on non-sovereignty issues first
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South China Sea syndrome Asean wants Declaration on the Conduct of
Parties in the South China Sea to be a legal-binding document but China declines
Eight years no progress on SCS, China dealswith Asean claimants only, not as a groupwhich Asean opposes
China looks for new paradigm for their
relations with Asean Set up Asean Development Fund to quell
down angry voices in Asean in 2008 forinfrastructure improvement
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Korean Peninsula crisis Threats to Asean security also Medium range missiles, taepodong, capable
of hitting Asean major cities Six-party talks (SPT) progress at the expense
of ARF All SPT members are in ARF framework but
fail to utilize the forum Institutionalizing SPT in the futureM ARF need major reviews to serve a premier
region-wide security consultative forum
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Korean crisis: asylum seekers Thailand has become one of the largest
transit points for N Korean asylum seekers
Average 4-5 person daily arriving at theThaiborder in Chiangsaen
More than 5,000 North Korean wererepatriated to S Korea in the past years
N Korea moves closer to Asean, joined ARF in
2000 and acceded to TAC 2008 Remained in US terrorist list and is helping
Burma with nuclear technology
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End of first session
15-minute break
Email address:[email protected]
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Asean Security Community Indonesias brainchild
Jakarta moved from away from lowest to
largest common denominators
To moral high-ground, 7 years inertia
Thailand supported the idea, treats Indonesia
as a natural ally Fit in broad strategic environment
Different views and pace
Vientiane action plan
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Indonesias plan To create a security community inAsean 2020 to compliment the Asean
economic and social communities. Allthree could reinforce each other andmake peaceful and stable Asean.
Drafting Asean Charter What is Indonesia is up to the Asean
chair 2011?
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Asean charter Law-binding principles
Promote Asean identity in global politics
In line with UN charter
Eminent Persons Group was set up inDec-2005 in KL during EAS, with 10
members, each from Asean memberAli Alatas, Fidel Ramos, Musa Hitam,
Jayakumar, Kasemsamosorn
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Asean charter and global changesAsean way of doing..
Informal and flexible
Deadline not alwaysclear
Implementationsubjective/non
confrontational Low priority
Inadequate resources
With Change
Formal (Asean Charter)
Clear targets (2015;roadmaps withmilestones)
Rules-based based and
accountability (reportcard to Asean leaders)
Compliance-oriented
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Asean Charter & institutional changes Provide legal framework for Asean
Codifies all Asean norms, rules, and values
High Level Legal Experts Groups: study disputesettlement mechanisms in Asean
SG Asean bigger mandate and role: monitoringprogress and compliance, interpret Asean Charterif/when necessary, interacting and speaking on
behalf of Asean Establishing Asean human right body
2 summits a year, a committee to permanentrepresetnatives
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Asean security community Proposed byIndonesia at July 2003
ASC Plan of Actions explained, not yetapproved
Seeks to change the Asean way of doing things
No change in renunciation of the use offorce
Possible change in non-interference
Regards its security as linked to other
members Their collective destiny bounds by common
norms, history, political experience, andgeographicallocation
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Gist of ASC Political development
Shaping and sharing of norms
Conflict prevention
Conflict resolution
Post-conflict peace-building
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Political development in ASC Promote understanding of political systems of
members through people to people contactsand track 2 (non-official) activities
Promote human rights and obligations Lay the groundwork to establish an
institutional framework for free flow ofinformation among Asean
Strengthening rule of law, judiciary systemsand legal infrastructure and good governancein public and private sectors
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Asean human rights body-AHRB High Level Panel established July 2008 to draftTOR
for AHRB First draft July 2009 AHRB then was transformed in Oct 2009 as Asean
Intergovernmental Commission for Human Rights(AICHR)
TOR of AHRBnot less than international norms andstandard
Promote HR first, protect HR later (easy said thandone) Declaration of Asean Human Rights (to be completed
in 2011 for the summits approval in Jakarta) Human Rights Resource Centre for Asean to be
launched in later in 2010 in Jakarta
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Shaping and sharing norms Building a just, democratic and
harmonious environment with Asean
charter
Asean mutual legal assistanceagreement
Asean Convention on Counter Terrorism
Asean Extradition Treaty
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Conflict prevention/resolution Working toward greater transparency
Asean defense ministerial meeting Promoting maritime security cooperation
Strengthening cooperation to address
threats and challenges posed byseparatism
Innovative ways to solve conflicts
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Post conflict peace building Secure peace and prevent a resurgence
of conflicts through humanitarian
assistance,
human resource development,education, reconstruction in affected
areas Promote culture of peace
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Asean ongoing fear Iraq war: failure of regional org to develop
adequate political mechanisms on interstate
relations--tempt outside intervention Asean needs a rule-based order to handle
problems effectively to preempt outsideinterference
Conflicts among members (Thai-Cambodia) Asean needs the security community to
prevent war
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New regional architecture Various existing Asean frameworks: Asean
Regional Forum, Asean Plus Three, Asia
Europe Meeting, East Asia Summit, AsiaPacific Economic Cooperation
Asean worries about its own rule: Aseancentrality (must earn it?)
Proposals by Australia (July 2008) and Japan(August 2009) were aborted
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Asean plus three -1990: PM Mahathirs East Asian Economic Group
-1995: PM Goh met leaders of China, Japan, S Koreain BKK
-Asian economic crisis 1997
-Asians can help Asians better
-Growing regional integration outside Asean
-Acted as a fulcrum for China, Japan, S. Korea to
meet and cooperate (first time in 1999, Manila Summit)--now on their
own
-1998 Hanoi: agreed to APT summit annually
-48 committees including energy and food security
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APT: future to come
-Maintaining the same format
-strengthening/broadening cooperationincluding security matters
-a pillar for the East Asian community
-holding APT summit outside Asean
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EAS: Future to come -Remaining a leaders-led forum
-EAS will remain open and inclusive
-engaging major powers including US, Russia
-adopting selective moratorium
-a new playground for great powers
-Reviewing ofTreaty of Amity andCooperation (1976)
-holding EAS outside Asean
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East Asia Summit(EAS)
-In Singapore 2000, Malaysia proposed to change thename of APT to EAS
-In Brunei 2001, East Asia Vision Group suggested:
APT to evolve to an East Asian Summit -In 2002 Phnom Penh Summit, Singapore suggested
the first EAS should be held in 10 years and thesecond one in 5-10 years.
-In Vientiane 2004, Asean leaders decided APT and
EAS were two separate paths Indonesia backed Australia, NZ; Singapore opted for
India as EAS members -Laos was first to propose to host the first EAS -First EAS in KL, used East Asian Summit but then
changed to East Asia Summit
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New ideas at Hanoi summit Asean plus eight: Asean plus India, NZ,
Australia, Japan, China, Korea with the US
and Russia (Singapores proposal) Expanded EAS: East Asia Summit with two
dialogue partners: the US and Russia(Indonesias proposal)
US and Russia could attend Octobers Aseansummit as observers with their FMs
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Asean and lessons learned Asean has to speak with one voice on global
issues (working on it)
Asean has to be more broad-based Asean has to engage with major powers with
international norms and standard
Asean has to be open, transparent,
democratic (Indonesias model) Asean must incorporate civil society at all
levels