Asia Pacific to add 78 million pay TV subs
The Asia Pacific pay TV sector is bucking the downward trends in much of the rest of the world. Subscribers will grow by 78 million and revenues by $2.73 billion between 2017 and 2023, according to the Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts report.
Source: Digital TV Research Ltd
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “China and India together will account for 81% of the region’s 686 million pay TV subscribers by 2023. China will add 33 million subscribers between 2017 and 2023 and India will increase its total by 28 million. However, six of the 22 countries covered in this report will lose subscribers between 2017 and 2023. Taiwan will be the biggest loser – with subscribers down by 10.3%.”
Digital cable will supply 37 million – half - of the pay TV subscriber additions between 2017 and 2023. However analog cable subscriptions will fall by 52 million – leaving cable down overall. IPTV will bring in an extra 67 million subs, with pay satellite TV up by 26 million.
Asia Pacific pay TV revenues will increase by $2.73 billion between 2017 and 2023. China, India and Japan will together account for two-thirds of the $37.89 billion pay TV revenues by 2023. Pay TV revenues will fall in six countries between 2017 and 2023 including Japan (down $623 million), South Korea (down $225 million) and Hong Kong (down $89 million). On the plus side, India will contribute $1.6 billion in additional revenues, with China bringing in $924 million more and Indonesia an extra $472 million.
2010 2017 2023
Others 28,621 43,455 51,789
Vietnam 4,560 10,131 11,141
Indonesia 1,053 6,950 11,352
Pakistan 8,550 11,526 15,670
S Korea 15,704 18,605 18,272
Japan 24,448 24,246 23,118
India 116,080 151,589 179,951
China 194,500 342,180 375,085
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Asia Pacific pay TV subscribers by country (000)
Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts
Table of Contents
Published in April 2018, this 228-page PDF and excel report comes in five parts:
• Executive summary and regional forecasts, with handy comparison tables to reveal the best growth prospects;
• Regional forecasts summary from 2010 to 2023 by platform, by household penetration, by pay TV subscribers and by pay TV revenues;
• Country profiles for 23 territories;
• Detailed country forecasts for 22 countries, including 75 pay TV operators and 98 platforms.
• NEW FOR 2018: Prospects. Summary subscriber forecasts for 22 countries in a graphically appealing 46-page document.
For more information, please click here or contact [email protected]
If you do not want the full report, you can buy the Asia Pacific Pay TV Prospects report for half the price of the full report. Please contact [email protected] for more details, including the table of contents and sample pages.
Forecasts for the following 22 countries and 75 platforms:
Country Forecasts No of ops Platform forecasts
Australia * 1 Foxtel
Bangladesh * 1 RealVU
Cambodia * 3 CDN; One TV; SM Telemedia
China * 4 China Radio & TV; China Telecom; BesTV; China Unicom
Hong Kong * 2 i-cable; Now TV
India * 11 Hathway; Siti; In Digital; DEN; Dish TV; Tata Sky; Videocon; Airtel; Sun Direct; Reliance; MTNL
Indonesia * 10 Linknet; Transvision; Indovision; Top TV; Okevision; Orange TV; Big TV; K Vision; Telkom; NexMedia
Japan * 3 SkyPerfecTV; J:Com; NTT
Laos *
Malaysia * 2 Astro; TM
Mongolia * 2 Univision; DDish
Myanmar * 2 SkyNet; 4TV/MRTV (Forever)
Nepal * 1 Dish Media
New Zealand * 2 Sky; Vodafone
Pakistan * 1 PTCL
Philippines * 2 Sky Cable/Sky Direct; Cignal
Singapore * 2 StarHub; SingTel TV
S Korea * 9 CJ Hellovision; T Broad; D’Live; CMB; Hyundai HCN; KT Olleh; Skylife; B TV; LG U+
Sri Lanka * 2 Dialog; Peo
Taiwan * 4 Taiwan Broadband; TWM; CNS; CHT
Thailand * 3 Truevisions; TOT; AIS
Vietnam * 8 SCTV; VTVCab; HTV-CMS; VNPT; Viettel; FPT; K+; MobiTV
SAMPLE: Indonesia pay TV insight
• After years of sluggish growth, Indonesian multichannel TV is finally taking off. Digital TV penetration was 38% (15.64 million) in end-2017, with 100% expected beyond 2023. DTT will account for 31 million of the 2023 total, up from 6 million at end-2017.
Main assumptions behind the forecasts • Pay TV penetration will remain low.
• Too many pay TV operators are chasing too few subscribers.
• There are many satellite TV operators in Indonesia. Not all of them will survive, with several already folding.
• The flurry of satellite TV activity now will be replaced by a flurry of IPTV activity, with Telkom gaining the most.
• Substantial investment in broadband networks will result in more bundle offers.
• Intense competition is forcing down ARPUs.
• Freeviewsat began operations in January 2017.
• Analog terrestrial switch-off is scheduled for 2018, but we do not expect it to happen until after 2023.
• Above average GDP growth is forecast; lower than the last edition.
• Population growth forecasts are also above the regional average.
Source: Digital TV Research
• Pay TV penetration reached only 16.8% (6.95 million) of TV households by end-2017. This proportion will climb slowly to 23.8% (11.35 million) by 2023. The number of IPTV homes will rise from 2.90 million in 2017 to 6.34 million in 2023. The number of paying IPTV homes will overtake pay satellite subs in 2018.
• Pay TV revenues will surge from $719 million in 2017 to $1,191 million in 2023. IPTV will provide $585 million of the 2023 total; more than double the 2017 total.
• Despite its huge potential, Indonesian pay TV will remain underdeveloped during the forecast period. Pay TV penetration is low, partly due to the multitude of FTA terrestrial channels on offer and partly due to the low disposable income for most homes.
• Piracy remains a major problem, with 2-3 million homes receiving illegal signals from as many as 2,500 operators (charging as little as a tenth of the average fee from the legitimate operators).
• MNC Skyvision (also known as MSky and trading as Indovision, Okevision and Top TV) had 2.50 million satellite TV subs by end-2016; flat year-on-year. We forecast a total of 3.03 million subscribers by 2023.
MNC Skyvision subscriber growth (000) ARPU IDR Total Indovision Top TV Okevision
2010 143,845 804 631 173 0
2011 125,430 1,163 752 335 76
2012 123,203 1,720 933 583 204
2013 114,259 2,300 1,175 774 351
2014 101,247 2,529 1,289 838 402
2015 102,946 2,433 1,139 881 412
2016 92,060 2,496 1,222 898 376
Source: MNC Skyvision
• MNC Skyvision raised IDR2.15 billion ($160 million) via an IPO in July 2012, which involved the sale of 20% of its equity. Global Mediacom controls 79.52% of Sky Vision Network (the holding company for its pay TV, digital and broadband assets) and also owns four major FTA broadcasters such as RCTI, MNC, iNewsTV and Global TV. Its satellite TV platforms provide 138 channels, including 36 exclusive ones.
• MNC Kabel Mediakom is a fledgling FTTH network, with 1 million homes passed by end-2016. MNC Play had 116,000 residential customers at end-2016. Its IPTV platform supplies 162 channels, including 38 exclusive ones as well as those from beIN. MNC Play is not available as a standalone service.
• Transvision had about 879,000 satellite TV (mainly pre-paid) and cable TV subscribers at end-2014. We estimate 453,000 subscribers across all platforms by end-2017, rising to 556,000 by 2023. In June 2013, CT Corp, owned by billionaire Chairul Tanjung and through its Transmedia subsidiary, acquired an 80% stake in TelkomVision from Telkom.
• The Diamond pack costs IDR399,000/month ($29.98) for 111 channels, with the 75-channel Gold pack at IDR199,000 ($14.95) and 98-channel Platinum for IDR299,000/month ($22.47).
• In October 2011, Mega Media (controlled by the Sinar Mas Group) launched the Orange TV satellite platform, with up to 75 channels (IDR160,000-238,000/month, $12.02-17.89). Orange also offer beIN channels. Orange offers both prepaid and postpaid subscriptions. The company targets middle to lower income subscribers. Orange launched an OTT mobile service in late 2013. We forecast 134,000 satellite TV subs by 2023.
• IMTV started its satellite TV operation, BigTV, in September 2013 – aiming to attract the growing middle class with 62-96 channels for INR130,000-510,000/month ($9.77-38.33). IMTV, Indonesia Media Televisi, is a subsidiary of the Lippo Group, which also owns First Media. We expect 56,000 subscribers by 2023.
• There are 20 licensed satellite TV operators. Skynindo is among the smaller
satellite platforms. Launched in December 2010, Aora Satellite TV went bust
in late 2015, followed by Viva Plus. Owned by Kompas Gramedia Group, K-
Vision launched a prepaid platform in March 2014.
• Premium channels beIN Sports hold the European Champions League soccer rights from 2015/16 to 2017/18 as well as action from Europe’s top domestic leagues from England, France, Italy and Spain. beIN Sports is carried by Orange, Nexvision, Indovision, K-Vision, Usee and Transvision.
• Philippines-based ABS and Sarana Media Vision launched a 60-channel FTA satellite TV platform called FreeSat in February 2017. SMV holds a satellite TV license.
LinkNet operating data (000) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q17
Homes passed 933 1,194 1,433 1,673 1,826 1,944
TV subs 266 304 363 433 503 541
Broadband subs 290 333 392 457 521 561
RGUs 755 890 1,024 1,102
Cable TV ARPU IDR00 150 151 186
Source: LinkNet
• LinkNet, trading as HomeCable, passed 2 million premises by end-2017 and wants to pass 2.8 million homes by 2021. LinkNet is also constructing an ADSL and fiber network. About 95% of customers take both TV and broadband services. We forecast 878,000 TV subs by 2023. LinkNet launched an IPO in mid-2014 for a third of its equity. Lippo Group-owned First Media controls 34.8%, with CVC taking 34.4%.
• The government aims to increase broadband premises passed from 30% of households (20 million) by end-2015 to 40% (25 million) by 2018 and more than 50% (35 million) in 2025. Telkom will construct the national broadband network, called True Broadband, at a cost of $24 billion. Speeds range from 20Mbps to 100Mbps. The ITU estimated 4,897,860 million fixed broadband subscribers by end-2016.
• About 52.09% owned by the government, Telkom had 4.75 million fixed broadband subscribers (up to 100Mbps) by September 2017. The company had passed 16.4 million premises with fiber by end-2016. Telkom also had 190 million mobile subs by September 2017.
• Launched in late 2014, Telkom had 1.1 million triple-play subs (IndiHome) by end-2015; rising to 1.62 million by end-2016. This figure had risen to 2.34 million by September 2017 (including 581,000 dual-play subs. Dual-play (broadband and linear TV) was introduced in late 2016). Standalone TV services are not available. We expect 6.03 million TV subs by 2023.
• IndiHome provides 100 SD channels and 31 HD ones as part of its triple-play fiber packs. IndiHome also gives access to Catchplay, HOOQ and Iflix. Its IPTV network (confusingly called Usee TV Cable) also incorporates on-demand services such as HBO.
• Part owned by Sinar Mas, broadband operator MyRepublic had 140,000 subscribers (up to 300Mbps) by mid-2017 from 500,000 homes passed. Its TV package provides 60 channels for IDR180,000/month.
• National analog terrestrial switch-off was scheduled for January 2018, but it was postponed for legal and technical reasons to March 2023. We do not believe that this will happen until after 2023. The Ministry of Communications and Information announced the adoption of the DVB-T2 standard in February 2012. The government has allocated IDR300 billion for 1 million settop boxes, which will be distributed to poorer households.
• Sister company of MNC Skyvision, Media Nusantara Citra is constructing a DTT network. Running the MNCTV, RCTI, iNewsTV and Global TV terrestrial FTA channels, MNC also operates 23 pay TV channels. Viva Group, owner of the tvOne and ANTV channels, also holds a DTT multiplex license (covering Java).
• Launched in November 2011, Nexmedia, a division of the Emtek Group which also runs FTA channels SCTV and IVM/Indosiar, began as a pay DTT operator (DVB-T2) in the Greater Jakarta area, with expansion soon after to east Java. Nexmedia (also known as Mediatama Anugrah Citra) had 124,000 subscribers by end-2014, up from 80,000 at end-2013 and 43,000 a year earlier. We forecast 191,000 subs by 2023.
• The basic NexFamily package costs IDR99,000/month ($7.44) for 26 channels. NexSports provides 20 channels for the same price. NexSports and NexFamily together cost IDR170,000/month ($12.78) for 32 channels. Nexmedia also carries beIN Sports.
• The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product will grow above the regional average for the next five years. GDP per capita was $3,859 in 2017. Indonesia’s population was 262 million in 2017.
• Joko Widodo was elected as president in July 2014 in a closely fought election. Widodo, known as Jokowi, is not part of the dynasty that has ruled Indonesia since independence. Appealing to ordinary Indonesians, he aims to deal with the widespread corruption.
Indonesia pay TV forecasts
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Total households (000)
TV households (000)
Digital cable subs (000)
Analog cable subs (000)
Pay IPTV subscribers (000)
Pay digital Satellite TV subs (000)
Digital free Satellite TV hholds (000)
Analog Satellite TV Hholds (000)
Analog terrestrial households (000)
Primary FTA DTT households (000)
Primary Pay DTT households (000)
Digital homes (000)
Analog homes (000)
Pay TV subscribers (000)
Total DTT households (000)
Digital cable subs/TV HH
Analog cable subs/TV HH
Pay IPTV subs/TV HH
Pay Satellite TV/TV HH
Digital free Satellite TV/TV HH
Analog Satellite TV/TV HH
Analog terrestrial/TVHH
Primary FTA DTT/TV HH
Primary pay DTT/TV HH
TVHH/Total HH
Digital/TV HH
Analog/TV HH
Pay TV Subs/TV HH
Total DTT/TV HH
Stand-alone digital cable subs (000)
Dual-play digital cable subs (000)
Triple-play digital cable subs (000)
Stand-alone pay IPTV subs (000)
Dual-play pay IPTV subs (000)
Triple-play pay IPTV subs (000)
Indonesia pay TV forecasts
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Revenues (US$ million)
Stand-alone digital cable revs
Dual-play digital cable TV revenues
Triple-play digital cable TV revs
Digital cable TV subs revenues
Digital cable TV on-demand revs
Digital cable TV revenues
Analog cable TV subs revs
Cable TV revenues
Stand-alone IPTV revenues
Dual-play IPTV revenues
Triple-play IPTV revenues
IPTV subscription revenues
IPTV on-demand revenues
IPTV revenues
Satellite TV subscription revenues
Satellite TV on-demand revenues
Satellite TV revenues
DTT subscription revs
DTT on-demand revenues
DTT revenues
Subscription revenues
On-demand revenues
Total revenues
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$)
Stand-alone digital cable subs
Dual-play digital cable TV subs
Triple-play digital cable TV subs
Average digital cable (subs & VOD)
Analog cable TV subs
Stand-alone IPTV subs
Dual-play IPTV subs
Triple-play IPTV subs
Average IPTV (subs and VOD)
Pay Satellite TV (subs)
Pay Satellite TV (subs and PPV)
Pay DTT (subs)
Pay DTT (subs and PPV)
Average monthly ARPU
Indonesia pay TV forecasts
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Pay TV subscribers by operator (000)
Linknet (digital cable)
Transvision (digital cable)
Transvision (satellite)
Transvision (total)
Indovision (satellite)
Top TV (satellite)
Okevision (satellite)
MNC Skyvision (total)
Orange TV (satellite)
Big TV (satellite)
K Vision (satellite)
Telkom (IPTV)
NexMedia (DTT)
Others
Share of pay TV subs by operator %
Linknet (digital cable)
Transvision (digital cable)
Transvision (satellite)
Transvision (total)
Indovision (satellite)
Top TV (satellite)
Okevision (satellite)
MNC Skyvision (total)
Orange TV (satellite)
Big TV (satellite)
K Vision (satellite)
Telkom (IPTV)
NexMedia (DTT)
Others
Indonesia pay TV forecasts
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Subscription & VOD revenues (US$ million)
Linknet (digital cable)
Transvision (digital cable)
Transvision (satellite)
Transvision (total)
Indovision (satellite)
Top TV (satellite)
Okevision (satellite)
MNC Skyvision (total)
Orange TV (satellite)
Big TV (satellite)
K Vision (satellite)
Telkom (IPTV)
NexMedia (DTT)
Others
Share of pay TV revenues by operator %
Linknet (digital cable)
Transvision (digital cable)
Transvision (satellite)
Transvision (total)
Indovision (satellite)
Top TV (satellite)
Okevision (satellite)
MNC Skyvision (total)
Orange TV (satellite)
Big TV (satellite)
K Vision (satellite)
Telkom (IPTV)
NexMedia (DTT)
Others
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$)
Linknet (digital cable)
Transvision (digital cable)
Transvision (satellite)
Indovision (satellite)
Top TV (satellite)
Okevision (satellite)
Orange TV (satellite)
Big TV (satellite)
K Vision (satellite)
Telkom (IPTV)
NexMedia (DTT)
Source: digital TV research
Indonesia pay TV subscriber prospects
2017 2018 2019 2023
A terres 25,733 21,902 18,350 1,765
Pay DTT 165 169 174 191
Free DTT 6,206 9,532 13,014 31,003
Free satellite 2,482 2,965 3,254 3,577
Pay Satellite 3,186 3,220 3,210 3,720
IPTV 2,896 3,813 4,555 6,344
A Cable 0 0 0 0
D cable 703 763 824 1,097
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Homes by platform (000)
610
463
1,288
966
370
116
48
39
3,622
169
273
878
556
1,488
1,116
428
134
56
45
6,027
191
434
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Linknet
Transvision
Indovision
Top TV
Okevision
Orange TV
Big TV
K Vision
Telkom
NexMedia
Others
Subscribers by operator (000)
2023 2018
Indonesia pay TV revenue prospects
2017 2018 2019 2023
Pay DTT 19 19 20 21
Pay Satellite 377 382 382 425
IPTV 213 304 384 585
A Cable 0 0 0 0
D cable 111 119 127 160
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Revenues by platform ($m)
95
60
164
106
41
12
5
4
289
19
29
128
70
183
118
45
13
6
4
555
21
48
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Linknet
Transvision
Indovision
Top TV
Okevision
Orange TV
Big TV
K Vision
Telkom
NexMedia
Others
Revenues by operator ($m)
2023 2018
Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2018 Title Publication Price
1 Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1440/$1560
2 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV Forecasts February £1200/€1440/$1560
3 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560
4 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560
5 North America Pay TV Forecasts March £500/€600/$650
6 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560
7 Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560
8 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts May £1500/€1800/$1950
9 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950
10 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950
11 Pay TV Operator Prospects June £800/€960/$1040
12 Pay TV Revenue Prospects July £800/€960/$1040
13 Netflix Forecasts July £600/€720/$780
14 Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts August
£1000/€1200/$1300
15 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts
August £1000/€1200/$1300
16 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300
17 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300
18 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £500/€600/$650
19 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300
20 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300
21 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1800/€2160/$2340
22 Global SVOD Forecasts November £1500/€1800/$1950
23 OTT TV & Video Prospects November £1000/€1200/$1300
24 SVOD Prospects December £900/€1080/$1170
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Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2017 Title Publication Price
Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts May £1800/€2160/$2340
Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts May £1800/€2160/$2340
Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts May £1800/€2160/$2340
Netflix Forecasts June £750/€900/$975
Global Pay TV Subscriber Databook June £750/€900/$975
Global Pay TV Revenue Databook June £750/€900/$975
Global Pay TV Operator Databook June £750/€900/$975
Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £1000/€1200/$1300
Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts July
£1000/€1200/$1300
Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts August £1000/€1200/$1300
Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts August £1000/€1200/$1300
North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £600/€720/$780
Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300
Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300
Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1800/€2160/$2340
Global AVOD Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300
Global SVOD Forecasts October £1500/€1800/$1950
Online TV Piracy Forecasts November £1200/€1440/$1560
SVOD Digest November £500/€600/$650
OTT & Pay TV Forecasts December £1500/€1800/$1950
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