DREAM 18 octobre 2012CONFIDENTIELPROPRIÉTÉ RENAULT
Automotive Industry: Vision 2033
Wien October 3rd & 4th
Energy is cheap
10 kWh = 100 bulbs of 100 W in 1 h
1,9 €
1 liter of gasoline = 10 Kwh
= 40 cents
Spot electricity stock exchange
Barrel price in current dollars
Barrel price in constant dollars
Energy in constant Euros
Orders of magnitude
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Energy demand is exploding
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33 days
48 days
10 % trafic
700 Billion dollars saved
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Evolution of artic ice between 1979 et 2012
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Evolution artic surface
Coal
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1950 2000 2050 2100
Worldwide possible coal production M toe
North America
China
Pacific
Africa
Europe
Asia
FSU
lignite
Year
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1950 2000 2050 2100
Worldwide possible coal production M toe
North America
China
Pacific
Africa
Europe
Asia
FSU
lignite
Year
Worldwide Possible Coal Production
Coal will survive after oil
Pic coal
World Coal reserves
Coal reserves are important in big energy cosumers countries
Coal consumption evolution
World Coal Consumption
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
Qua
d B
TU OECD
Non-OECD
Total
Consumption will rise essentially in non OCDE countries
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Number of coal fire plants construction
Nuclear energy
There is a road map !
Available Technology
Road-Map
Early PrototypeReactors
Generation I
- Shippingport
- Dresden, Fermi
- Magnox
Commercial Power
Reactors
Generation II
- LWR-PWR, BWR
- CANDU- VVER/RBMK
- AGR
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Generation IV
- Highly Economical
- Enhanced Safety
- Minimize Wastes
- Proliferation Resistant
AdvancedLWRs
Generation III
- ABWR
- System 80+- AP600
- EPR
Gen I Gen II Gen III Gen III+ Gen IV
Generation III+
Generation III Evolutionary Designs Offering Improved Economics
http://gen-iv.ne.doe.gov/
Fission Fusion
Renewable Sources
EMETTEUR DATE STRICTEMENT CONFIDENTIEL
Wind Gaz PV Oil CoalEnergie
Cap
acité
de
prod
uctio
n (G
Wh)
New capacities of electrique production installed in Europe in2008
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Wind Gaz PV Oil CoalEnergie
Pui
ssan
ce N
omin
ale
(GW
)
Wind Gaz PV Oil CoalEnergie
Cap
acité
de
prod
uctio
n (G
Wh)
EN PUISSANCE NOMINALE(Puissance maximale)
EN CAPACITE A FOURNIR DE L’ENERGE(Sur une année)
Take care of absolute figures
Wind Energy
World Wind Power Total installed Capacity (GWp)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Cap
acity
(G
Wp)
2010 World installed capacity 160 GW160 Wind GWp ���� 45 nuclear GW ���� 12% Nuclear world power
Limits:• Grid management (intermittency, …) => penetration limit of 20%• Environmental impact• … Still progressing
Central in Portugal 11 MW :Porcheville : 3000 MW
CONFIDENTIELPROPRIÉTÉ RENAULT 25
EMETTEUR DATE STRICTEMENT CONFIDENTIEL
Cost of production of electricity
Bio fuels
TOE production for 1 ha
�Oil 1 to 2 TOE/year�Ethanol 2 to 4 TOE/year
�2nd Generation 3 to 6 TOE/year�
French transportation needs: 57 MTOE ≈> 100% of French farming area
Bio fuel is only a small brick of the solution
Origin of Hydrogen
H2
Ren
ewab
leBiomas
s
HydroWindSolar
Non
-Ren
ewab
le
Coal
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Oil Distributed Generation
Seq
uest
ratio
n
Transportation
48%
30%
18%
4%
Natural Gaz
Oil
Coal
Hydrolyze
H2 originH2 as Vector
Electricity
©O
EC
D/IE
A 2
009
Worldwide electricity generation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1992 2007
Coal Oil Gas
©O
EC
D/IE
A 2
009
gCO2 / kWh for some countries
Reference Approach
Sectoral Approach
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Afrique du
Sud
Brésil Chine Etats-Unis Inde Fédération de
Russie
Union
Européenne
Monde
g C
O2
pa
r k
Wh
1992
2007
Electricity production
Données 2005 :IEA www.iea.org
Some countries have atypic production
Distribution de la production d ’électricité
Données 2005 :IEA www.iea.org
Electricity is coal
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Towards 95 g of CO2
Main OEM CAFE
Groupe Renault (R+Dacia) est TOP1 EU 27suivi de Toyota et Peugeot
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CO2 emission reduction
Pol
luta
nt e
mis
sion
red
uctio
n (
NO
x+10
PM
)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Euro6 D
Euro4/6 G
Euro5 D
EGR LPvariable Swirl
Extra Heavydownsizing
MildHybrid
MicroHybrid
Milddownsizing
Milddownsizing
GDI
Heavydownsizing
e-driveHybrid
Diesel
Gasoline
Hybrids
2010
2015
2020Electrical
Plug-in hybrid
Battery EV (Range Extender)
Battery EV + Fuel Cell + on-board H2
Renault powertrain technologies roadmap
Breakthru: Powertrain electrification
Energie : Fuel Cell
BCONFIDENTIELPROPRIETE RENAULT
Scenic ZEV-H2 en 2008
� PàC 90 kW
� Batterie Li-ion : 1.2 kWh
� Réservoir H2 350 bars, 3,74 kg
BCONFIDENTIELPROPRIETE RENAULT
Hydrogen costSource : A fact-based analysis for powertrains in Europe - the role of BEV, PHEV and FCEV
Energie : Fuel Cell
Every technical problem is solved :
� Cold start (-30°)
� Performance (0 – 100 km/h -> 12 s)
� Range (500 km)
Cost is the challenge
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Electronics & power electronics
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«More than Moore» Multiscale integration
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150 euros
Memory cost is collapsing
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Memory cost is collapsing
25 DVD on a stamp !
World record: 1 million Giga on a DVD
Mobile phone distribution
Macro trends (2012 vs 2008)
Growing population 7,5 milliards d’humains (+10% vs. 2008)
Urbanisation 55% population mondiale(+12% vs. 2008)
Mégapoles 12 villes de plusde 15 millions habitants(6 en 2008)
More seniors 1 milliard over 60 ans(x2 vs. 2008)
54CONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY
B
Worldwide market
Euromed
Eurasia
Asia & Africa
China
USA + Canada
w/o USA + Canada
(million units)
w/o China
Americas
TotalTotal
1.3
3.3
15.1
7.8
17.8
5.4
68.868.8
1.1
1.8
15.2
12.9
11.9
5.1
64.064.0
France & Europe 18.1 15.9 15.3
1.3
2.2
16.5
16.0
13.3
5.9
70.570.5
France 2.5 2.7 2.6Europe 15.6 13.2
18.6
1.9
4.9
22.7
26.4
17.6
8.2
100.4100.4
2.616.0
16.3 17.8
1.4
3.5
18.9
19.3
16.6
6.9
82.882.8
1.7
4.4
20.8
23.0
17.7
7.5
92.892.8
2.5 2.513.8 15.312.7
20072007 20092009 20102010PM11PM11
2020202020132013 20162016 10-yearchange10-yearchange
3.3
0.6
2.7
6.2
10.4
4.3
2.3
0.03.3
29.929.9
Asia is 50% of the market in 2010 and will reach 60% en 2020
2000
2010
2020
Europe & Africa
Asia & OthersNorth America
South America
34%
32%
30%
27%
50%
17%
22%
60%
13%
4%
6%
5%
56CONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY
B
5 major trends
� A great need for mobility in an urbanized worldLack of public infrastructure & traffic limitations
� Raw materials and oil more and more expensive with shortage risks
� Accelerating Global Warmingand more severe regulations
� The financial crisis not overwith high risk of some states insolvency Financially constrained middle class
© Coe-Rexecode
Oil price (Brent, barrel) in US$
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
© Coe-Rexecode
Oil price (Brent, barrel) in Euro
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
20
40
60
80
100
30
© Coe-Rexecode
US$, January 1988 = 100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
© Coe-Rexecode
Euro, January 1988 = 100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
70
100
130
160
190
220
250
280
Oil Price in EUR Oil Price in USD
Industrial metal
Price Index
EUR
Industrial metal
Price Index
USD
City core
Near suburb
Far outskirt
� Economic and TIVs growth unevenly splitbetween mature (ageing) and emerging (younger) countries
Time to recover 2007 TIV level (by Region)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
100
= 20
07 T
IV
France & Europe
EuroMedEurAsia
Americas (South&Central)
Asia & Africa
USA & Canada
World
2007 TIV (M. units)18
13 5
23 18
0
5
10
15
20
25
France &Europe
EuroMed
EurAsia
Americas Asia &Africa
USA &Canada
2007 TIV (M. units)18
13 5
23 18
0
5
10
15
20
25
France &Europe
EuroMed
EurAsia
Americas Asia &Africa
USA &Canada
January 2011 vision
Debt and Deficit Indicators (2010)
Source: DataInsight, 2011
-12,0
-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
0 50 100 150 200
Public Debt / GDP (%)
Belgium
Germany
France
Italy
Portugal
UK
Netherlands
USA
JapanEurozone
Spain
Bud
get D
efic
it / G
DP
(%
)
Greece
Debt and Deficit Indicators (2010)
Source: DataInsight, 2011
-12,0
-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
0 50 100 150 200
Public Debt / GDP (%)
Belgium
Germany
France
Italy
Portugal
UK
Netherlands
USA
JapanEurozone
Spain
Bud
get D
efic
it / G
DP
(%
)
Greece
Oil price
Metals index
20082005 2011 20082005 2011
57CONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY
B
Conséquences for automotive industry industry
� Optimize raw materials use per car (less weight, bi o-materials, criticality…) and boost recycling
� In addition to ZEV, develop low CO2 and low cost en ginesand anticipate always more severe regulations
� Reduce drastically all costsand focus on technologies for costs breakthroughs
� Adapt to changes in customers needs (downgrading, d ownsizing…)and invest in alternative mobility schemes and serv ices
� Be where growth will beand be prepared for the next BRICs
58DREAMCONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY
B
02/10/2012
Environmental Footprint
Life Cycle Acessment
18 oct 2012CONFIDENTIELPROPRIÉTÉ RENAULT 59
Scraps are a market
18 oct 2012CONFIDENTIELPROPRIÉTÉ RENAULT 60
Scraps market is like a raw material market
Exportation USA => Chineen Valeur (2005)
cow hides and skins
electric apparatus
auto data equip. auto parts
cotton
soybeans
aircraft and parts
digital int. circuits
ferrous scrap
copper scrap
scrap/waste paper aluminum scrap
0 1 2 3 4 5
b $
Need to be an actor of recycling process
18 oct 2012CONFIDENTIELPROPRIÉTÉ RENAULT 61
Guiyu (Chine) appelée "e-waste »100 000 personnes employées dans le secteur
Condition de travail, Salaires, combustion des plastiques, pollution des sols
Baie d’Alang40 000 personnes
CONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY
BDGA PPP/ DPE 18 octobre 2012
China investments in mines worldwide…
2004 01/2009
01/2010
63DREAMCONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY
B
02/10/2012
Ultra-intuitive use of Advanced Systems by All
64
CONFIDENTIELPROPRIÉTÉ RENAULT 65
Exemple PIONEER (Japon) Système de navigation à réalité augmentée
� Système de navigation avec écran motorisé 7" intégré à un autoradio 2 DIN
� Superpose sur la carte les images réelles d'une caméra sans fil en haut du pare-brise
� Commercialisation prévue au Japon juin 2011 (2600 €)
66DREAMCONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY
B
02/10/2012
Service-based car business
CONFIDENTIELPROPRIÉTÉ RENAULT 67
A car will be part of a global offer of services
CONFIDENTIELPROPRIÉTÉ RENAULT 68
Sale
Finance
ExpensesServicing
Gasoline
Inssurance
Parking
MEDIAConnectivité
Entertainment
Navigation
Global offer
69DREAMCONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY
B
02/10/2012
EV
Mild-hybrid
Full-hybrid
(parapllel)
Full-hybrid
(power-spilt)
plug-in hybrid
EV
range-extender
Pure E
V
Mild-hybrid
Full-hybrid
(parapllel)
Full-hybrid
(power-spilt)
plug-in hybrid
EV
range-extender
Pure E
V
Mild-hybrid
Full-hybrid
(parapllel)
Full-hybrid
(power-spilt)
plug-in hybrid
EV
range-extender
Pure E
V≤ 2012 2013 - 2015 2016 - 2020
71DREAMCONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY
B
02/10/2012
72DREAMCONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY
B
02/10/2012
73DREAMCONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY
B
02/10/2012
L’énergie liquide est reine
La quantité d’énergie embarquée: un critère fondamental pour les applications mobiles
BCONFIDENTIELPROPRIETE RENAULT
Well to Wheel CO2 emission (2010 technology)
Electricity / Nat Gas
Electricity / Coal
Electricity / Wind, Hydro
Electricity / Nuclear
Electricity / EU Mix
Electricity / FR Mix
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Nat Gas Reforming
Coal Gasification
Electrolysis / Nat Gas
Electrolysis / Coal
Electrolysis / Wind, Hydro
Electrolysis / Nuclear
Electrolysis / EU Mix
Electrolysis / FR Mix
Fluence ZE14 kWhe/100km
Scenic ZEV-H21.15 kgH2/100km
gCO2/km
� Present/mid-term context of H2 and electricity production in EU
���� FCEV carbon footprint is twice BEV and close to Diesel
� Best carbon footprint long term scenario (electrolysis with green electricity), ���� FCEV energy footprint is 3 times higher than BEV (70% x 85% x 50%)
� Present/mid-term context of H2 and electricity production in EU
���� FCEV carbon footprint is twice BEV and close to Diesel
� Best carbon footprint long term scenario (electrolysis with green electricity), ���� FCEV energy footprint is 3 times higher than BEV (70% x 85% x 50%)
Most representative
Most representative
BEV
FCEV
Li-ion family
Cathode Anode
Li Li ++
Cobalt Cobalt (Li(LiCoCoOO22))
Manganèse (LiMn2O4)
Phosphate de fer (LiFePO4)
NCA (LiNiCoAl O2)
NMC (LiNiMnCo O2)
GraphiteGraphite
Hard CarboneHard Carbone
TitanateTitanate
Oxyde de Lithium :Oxyde de Lithium :
Li-ion picture: courtesy of Prof. M. Winter
Manganèse
NCA
Phosphatede fer
NMC