Download - Avcj 06262014 final
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The New Japan as No1 - Mobile and Beyond
GLOBIS CAPITAL PARTNERS
Shinichi (Shin) TakamiyaPartner/Chief Strategy Officer GLOBIS Capital PartnersEmail: [email protected]
June 2014
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Partner/Chief Strategy Officer,GLOBIS Capital Patners
Board Representative:nanapi, Kayac, Pixta, Beyond, Lancers, Viibar,and Mercari etc
Shinichi (Shin) Takamiya
GLOBIS CAPITAL PARTNERS 1
and Mercari etc
Track Record:iStyle, Shimauma Print System, and Aucfan etc
BA in Economics from University of Tokyo (graduation thesis with Honor's Award)MBA from Harvard Business School (Second Year Honor)
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1996 GLOBIS Incubation Fund JPY0.54B1999 Apax GLOBIS Japan Fund JPY20B2006 GLOBIS Fund III JPY18B2014 GLOBIS Fund IV JPY11.5B
Capital
Overview GLOBIS Capital Partners
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People• GLOBIS University, Graduate
School of Management, • GLOBIS Management School• GLOBIS Organization Learning
Knowledge• GLOBIS MBA Series, best
selling MBA text books• G1 Summit and Aska
Conference• Research institute
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8%
Japan Struggled During the “Lost 2 Decades”
Real GDP Growth Rate (%)
Lost 2 Decades
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(6%)
(4%)
(2%)
0%
2%
4%
6%
'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
3
Source: IMF
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15,000
17,500
2.3%2.5%
3.0%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
… However, Re-Growth in the Last 2 YearsQuarterly Real
GDP Growth Rate (%)Nikkei Stock Price
PerformanceAbe’s era (JPY)
x1.7
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7,500
10,000
12,500
12/712/912/1213/313/613/913/1214/314/6
-0.2% -0.3%
0.1%
1.2%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
20123Q 4Q
20131Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
20141Q
4Source: IMF, Cabinet office, Yahoo
-0.3%20123Q 4Q
20131Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
20141Q 2Q
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“Abenomics” Stimulating Growth
1st ArrowMonetary
Policy• 2% inflation target• Radical quantitative easing
2nd Arrow
“Abenomics”
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2nd ArrowFiscal Policy
• Expansion of public investment• Buying government bonds
3rd ArrowEconomic
Growth
• Corporate tax decrease• Accounting standard reform • Maximize working population• Improve mobility of human resources
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13.5%
7.6%10%
15%
Mobile Internet as “The New Japan as No1”Real GDP Compound Annual Growth Rate (%)
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0.9% 0.6% 0.4%
-0.4% -1.2% -1.6%
-3.7% -4.4%(5%)
0%
5%
InternetServices Mobile
Communication
RetailElectric
Machinery
Other IT
Transportation
SteelTransportMachinery
WholesaleConstruction
6
Note: Compound Annual Growth rate from 2005 to 2011Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
Average -1.0%
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The Most Attractive Mobile Market in the World
Mobile Contents Market 8.5B 6.8B1>
1.2x
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1 Calculated based on global digital goods market size and U.S. market share among global mobile contents market
Source: Mobile Contents Forum, Deutsche Bank, ResearchMoz, ITU - ICT Statistics, United Nations, IMF and GCP analysis
Contents Market
Mobile Contract
Population
GDP
120M 330M
>2.7x
127M 310M
>2.4x
6.0T 15.7T
>2.6x
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10 Years Ahead - Long Going History1999
Japanese developers
15 years
2007 2014
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NTT docomo“i-mode”
iPhone1st generation
leading theglobal market
7 years
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2.1
11.9
Big Fish Casino(Big Fish Games)
Puzzle & Dragons(GungHo Online)
Sophisticated UsersNurturing Unique Services
Highly Profitable Users(Example of Games)
Sophisticated and Profitable Users
Monthly Average Revenue per User (USD)Coupons/CRMCommerce
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0.2
0.8
1.3
2.1
0 5 10 15
Zynga Poker(Zynga)
Candy CrushSaga (King)
Clash of Clans(Supercell)
(Big Fish Games)
Note: April 2013 – March 2014Source: Superdataresearch.com
9
Real Payment E-Ticketing
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Carrier BillingTransaction Fee 6.0%1 35.0%2
4G 20.7% 9.8%3
Mobile Carriers Building the Cornerstone
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4G Penetration 20.7% 9.8%3
Mobile Data Transmission Speed 3.2Mbps 2.1Mbps3
Developer Support
SDK, OSdevelopment
subsidy-
10
1 Epsilon (Payment agency handling 3 carrier’s settlement)2 AT&T, 3 Average of U.S., UK, Germany, Australia
Source: bango, mobiThinking, CISCO VNI Mobile
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318
250
300
350
Accessible IPO MarketMedian Market Cap at IPO at Small Cap Markets (2013)
(USD M)
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55
0
50
100
150
200
TSE Mothers NASDAQ
Source: NASDAQ, Bloomberg
11
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32.0x
Highly Attractive IPO MarketLiquidity and Valuation at IPO
TSEMothers
Turnover Offering PER Opening PER
19.6x775%
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16.9x
18.9x
12
Mothers
SGX
Hong KongNote: Turnover(2013), PER (2012)
Source: TSE report
13.6x
13.3x
59%
209%
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1,604 1,500
2,000
Great Fund Raising Environment
Name Sector $M
Akatsuki Game 14.0
Mercari C2C market 14.5
Example of Sizable Private FinanceVC Investment(USD M)
+84%
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872
0
500
1,000
2009 2013
13
Gunosy News App 12.0
Antenna News App 20.0
gumi Game 19.0
Metaps AD 10.0
Note: Mobile internet related financing deal in 2013-2014Source: VEC, News, GCP
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Investment period
% of Serial or Seasoned
Management
# of investment
Apax Globis 1999 - 47
Rise of Quality Entrepreneurs
25%
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Apax GlobisJapan Fund
1999 -2006 47
Fund IIl & IV
2006 -2014 57
14
49%
25%
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“Beyond i” IoT is the Next Big ThingThe Next Big Thing “Internet of Things (IoT)”
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Summary: The New Japan as No1• Abenomics stimulating the re-growth of Japan• Mobile internet “The New Japan as No1”
− Driving Japan’s growth− Making Japan the most attractive mobile internet market in the world
• Japan has become a great nurturing ground for innovativeand unique mobile services
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and unique mobile services− 15 years of long history− Mobile carriers’ initiatives− Sophisticate users
• Highly accessible and attractive capital markets• Rise of quality entrepreneurs and startups• “Beyond i”: Japan’s opportunity lies beyond mere mobile
internet - “Internet of Things (IoT)”16
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