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Award of 3.4 GHz andAward of 3.4 GHz and10 GHz Licences10 GHz Licences
FWACC13th December 2000
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Steve JonesIntroduction
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IntroductionIntroductionIntroductionIntroduction
www.radio.gov.uk 26th January 2001
www.radio.gov.uk 26th January 2001
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James KinsleyOverview
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Today…….Today…….Today…….Today…….
Overview of Programme to Date…. Scenarios modelled Summary of preliminary findings Markets/Revenue Report Technical/Costs Report Financial/Valuation Report Economic Report Way forward
Overview of Programme to Date…. Scenarios modelled Summary of preliminary findings Markets/Revenue Report Technical/Costs Report Financial/Valuation Report Economic Report Way forward
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13thDecember
2
11thDecember
Basic ProgrammeBasic ProgrammeBasic ProgrammeBasic Programme
Analysis(Stage 2)
Analysis(Stage 4)
Workshops
informationmemorandum
20thSeptember
steering group
Industry group
6-8 weeks 4-6 weeks
**Late February!**
1 3
Analysis
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Licence ScenariosLicence ScenariosLicence ScenariosLicence Scenarios
Look at a range of business cases
48 licence scenarios !!
Defined generic licence types New and existing operators
Look at a range of business cases
48 licence scenarios !!
Defined generic licence types New and existing operators
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Main Licence Scenarios x 6Main Licence Scenarios x 6Main Licence Scenarios x 6Main Licence Scenarios x 6
New
Venture
New
Venture
Existing operatorExisting operator
CityCity RegionalRegional NationalNational
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Main Licence ScenariosMain Licence ScenariosMain Licence ScenariosMain Licence Scenarios
City = 9 cities combined = area of 4,500 km2
Regional = rest of the country - City = area of 240,000 km2
National = City + Regional
City = 9 cities combined = area of 4,500 km2
Regional = rest of the country - City = area of 240,000 km2
National = City + Regional
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Licence ScenariosLicence ScenariosLicence ScenariosLicence Scenarios
Defined generic licence types New and existing operators 4 cellular configurations
Defined generic licence types New and existing operators 4 cellular configurations
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Licence Scenarios x 24Licence Scenarios x 24Licence Scenarios x 24Licence Scenarios x 24
New
Venture
New
Venture
Existing operatorExisting operator
CityCity RegionalRegional NationalNational
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
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Licence ScenariosLicence ScenariosLicence ScenariosLicence Scenarios
Defined generic licence types New and existing operators 4 cellular configurations Basic and optimistic (“lucky break”) cases
Defined generic licence types New and existing operators 4 cellular configurations Basic and optimistic (“lucky break”) cases
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Licence Scenarios x 48Licence Scenarios x 48Licence Scenarios x 48Licence Scenarios x 48
New
Venture
New
Venture
Existing operatorExisting operator
CityCity RegionalRegional NationalNational
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
BasicBasic
“Lucky”“Lucky”
BasicBasic
“Lucky”“Lucky”
BasicBasic
“Lucky”“Lucky”
BasicBasic
“Lucky”“Lucky”
BasicBasic
“Lucky”“Lucky”
BasicBasic
“Lucky”“Lucky”
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Preliminary Findings (1):Preliminary Findings (1):Limiting factorsLimiting factorsPreliminary Findings (1):Preliminary Findings (1):Limiting factorsLimiting factors Size of spectrum - this dictates:
– subscriber density that is supportable (i.e. market share is not really limited by competition from other access technologies or by subscriber take-up), and therefore…….
– …..nature of overall usage (i.e. “infill”/complementary);– …..initial targeting of customers (“cherry-picking”,
because demand is likely to exceed supply)….– “upgradeability” - an increased hunger for bandwith from
the customer base over time will effect overall viability of the business case of the spectrum on offer
– number of licences per region (i.e. 1-2); Backhaul costs - these are high, unless you use microwave
Size of spectrum - this dictates:– subscriber density that is supportable (i.e. market share is
not really limited by competition from other access technologies or by subscriber take-up), and therefore…….
– …..nature of overall usage (i.e. “infill”/complementary);– …..initial targeting of customers (“cherry-picking”,
because demand is likely to exceed supply)….– “upgradeability” - an increased hunger for bandwith from
the customer base over time will effect overall viability of the business case of the spectrum on offer
– number of licences per region (i.e. 1-2); Backhaul costs - these are high, unless you use microwave
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Preliminary Findings (2):Preliminary Findings (2):Limiting FactorsLimiting FactorsPreliminary Findings (2):Preliminary Findings (2):Limiting FactorsLimiting Factors Rural areas unattractive to operators Banks cautious about lending to sector
– FSA letter sent to banks following review by FSA of 34 banks’ exposure to telecoms sector. (FT 8/12/00)
– “Banks are capping the amount of exposure to this sector” (FT 8/12/00)
– banks expect conditions to improve in about 6 - 9 months
Rural areas unattractive to operators Banks cautious about lending to sector
– FSA letter sent to banks following review by FSA of 34 banks’ exposure to telecoms sector. (FT 8/12/00)
– “Banks are capping the amount of exposure to this sector” (FT 8/12/00)
– banks expect conditions to improve in about 6 - 9 months
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Preliminary Findings (3):Preliminary Findings (3):City vs Regional vs NationalCity vs Regional vs NationalPreliminary Findings (3):Preliminary Findings (3):City vs Regional vs NationalCity vs Regional vs National
Regional licences (i.e. assuming no rural roll-out) and national licences are viable….
Regional licence is more attractive than National licence….
City licence is not viable– high capital costs (i.e. more base stations)
associated with smaller cell radius– assumption of no microwave backhaul
Regional licences (i.e. assuming no rural roll-out) and national licences are viable….
Regional licence is more attractive than National licence….
City licence is not viable– high capital costs (i.e. more base stations)
associated with smaller cell radius– assumption of no microwave backhaul
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Preliminary Findings (4):Preliminary Findings (4):Cellular configurationsCellular configurationsPreliminary Findings (4):Preliminary Findings (4):Cellular configurationsCellular configurations 4 cellular configurations - allows us to model
the relative impact on the main business case scenarios of different cell radii:– lower (infrastructure) costs and lower (subscriber)
revenues
vs
– higher (infrastructure) costs and higher (subscriber) revenues
[NB: A & B are more profitable than C & D]
4 cellular configurations - allows us to model the relative impact on the main business case scenarios of different cell radii:– lower (infrastructure) costs and lower (subscriber)
revenues
vs
– higher (infrastructure) costs and higher (subscriber) revenues
[NB: A & B are more profitable than C & D]
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Preliminary Findings (4):Preliminary Findings (4):New vs Existing OperatorsNew vs Existing OperatorsPreliminary Findings (4):Preliminary Findings (4):New vs Existing OperatorsNew vs Existing Operators Business cases for new operator and
existing operator are broadly comparable– new operator will have more ambitious
aspirations than existing operators, thus revenues will be higher, especially in the early years
– ...new operator will have a higher cost base, which goes someway to redress their advantage in terms of higher revenues
Business cases for new operator and existing operator are broadly comparable– new operator will have more ambitious
aspirations than existing operators, thus revenues will be higher, especially in the early years
– ...new operator will have a higher cost base, which goes someway to redress their advantage in terms of higher revenues
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Preliminary Findings (6):Preliminary Findings (6):Licence ConfigurationLicence ConfigurationPreliminary Findings (6):Preliminary Findings (6):Licence ConfigurationLicence Configuration
This is clearly critical to the success of the award programme….
No business case for a combined City licence Licence configuration based on (artificial)
geographical boundaries/regions is inappropriate…. ……configuration based around a detailed knowledge
of potential subscriber locations, is critical Further discussion on configuration of licences later
in this presentation….
This is clearly critical to the success of the award programme….
No business case for a combined City licence Licence configuration based on (artificial)
geographical boundaries/regions is inappropriate…. ……configuration based around a detailed knowledge
of potential subscriber locations, is critical Further discussion on configuration of licences later
in this presentation….
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Bérangère Mira-SmithQualitative Market Research
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ProgressProgressProgressProgress
Interviewed a further 10 companies– Operators
Eurobell, Internet Central, Balloon-A-Gram
– Manufacturers
Adaptive broadband, PipingHot Networks, Tandberg TV
– Banks
Royal Bank of Scotland, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America
Interviewed a further 10 companies– Operators
Eurobell, Internet Central, Balloon-A-Gram
– Manufacturers
Adaptive broadband, PipingHot Networks, Tandberg TV
– Banks
Royal Bank of Scotland, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America
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Industry Views:Industry Views:Services and target market Services and target market Industry Views:Industry Views:Services and target market Services and target market
Services– Always-On/Fast link to the Internet– Voice telephony
Market share expectations – Large operators 10-15%– Small operators ‘00s or ‘000s of subscribers
Target markets– Primarily SMEs and SOHOs– High-end residential market
Services– Always-On/Fast link to the Internet– Voice telephony
Market share expectations – Large operators 10-15%– Small operators ‘00s or ‘000s of subscribers
Target markets– Primarily SMEs and SOHOs– High-end residential market
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Industry Views:Industry Views:Overview of Access TechnologiesOverview of Access TechnologiesIndustry Views:Industry Views:Overview of Access TechnologiesOverview of Access Technologies
Access Typical speeds* Target market
Leased lines
28/40 GHz>2 Mbps Corporate market
3.4/10 GHz
xDSL 64Kbps-4MbpsSMEs and SOHOs
High-end residential
3.4 GHz
ADSL
Cable modem
512 Kbps
ISDN/Dialup 128Kbps
Residential market
* Typically to be found (or soon to be found) in the market place
Access Typical speeds* Target market
Leased lines
28/40 GHz>2 Mbps Corporate market
3.4/10 GHz
xDSL 64Kbps-4MbpsSMEs and SOHOs
High-end residential
3.4 GHz
ADSL
Cable modem
512 Kbps
ISDN/Dialup 128Kbps
Residential market
* Typically to be found (or soon to be found) in the market place
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Industry Views:Industry Views:Location of target marketLocation of target marketIndustry Views:Industry Views:Location of target marketLocation of target market
Prime location is suburban areas of cities, towns and business parks– strong competition in city centres (fibre,
copper and in July 2001 ULL) – need to target densely populated areas to
achieve base station “fill factor” and adequate return
No business case to roll out in rural areas
Prime location is suburban areas of cities, towns and business parks– strong competition in city centres (fibre,
copper and in July 2001 ULL) – need to target densely populated areas to
achieve base station “fill factor” and adequate return
No business case to roll out in rural areas
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Industry Views:Industry Views:Operators’ strategies (1)Operators’ strategies (1)Industry Views:Industry Views:Operators’ strategies (1)Operators’ strategies (1) For large operators the spectrum will be
complementary to existing portfolio– e.g ASDL; other spectrum e.g at 28GHz or
2GHz; and support overall strategy “do not put all your eggs in one basket”
Smaller operators will only have FWA
For large operators the spectrum will be complementary to existing portfolio– e.g ASDL; other spectrum e.g at 28GHz or
2GHz; and support overall strategy “do not put all your eggs in one basket”
Smaller operators will only have FWA
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Industry Views:Industry Views:Operators’ strategies (2)Operators’ strategies (2)Industry Views:Industry Views:Operators’ strategies (2)Operators’ strategies (2)
Rollout approach will :– Start from existing points of presence– Go where demand/population density is
highest– But above all go where competition is not
strong to establish footprint
Rollout approach will :– Start from existing points of presence– Go where demand/population density is
highest– But above all go where competition is not
strong to establish footprint
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Industry View:Industry View:Regulatory & licensing matters (1)Regulatory & licensing matters (1)Industry View:Industry View:Regulatory & licensing matters (1)Regulatory & licensing matters (1)
Large operators want a national licence Small operators want a regional licence
(but wasteful at boundaries) The amount of spectrum can only support
one licence holder Licence duration needs to be 15-20 years
Large operators want a national licence Small operators want a regional licence
(but wasteful at boundaries) The amount of spectrum can only support
one licence holder Licence duration needs to be 15-20 years
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Industry View:Industry View:Regulatory & licensing matters (2)Regulatory & licensing matters (2)Industry View:Industry View:Regulatory & licensing matters (2)Regulatory & licensing matters (2)
Some licence clauses would be acceptable, e.g.:– “Use It or Lose It” – Rollout clauses with deadlines & penalties– No backhaul on band
Service clauses would make the licence unattractive
Some licence clauses would be acceptable, e.g.:– “Use It or Lose It” – Rollout clauses with deadlines & penalties– No backhaul on band
Service clauses would make the licence unattractive
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Industry Views:Industry Views:Auction vs Comp. SelectionAuction vs Comp. SelectionIndustry Views:Industry Views:Auction vs Comp. SelectionAuction vs Comp. Selection
Comparative selection is the preferred award mechanism– auctions might be clear cut but take money out
of the industry– comparative selection has the means to
ensure that the licence will be used– the banking community would not support an
auction
Comparative selection is the preferred award mechanism– auctions might be clear cut but take money out
of the industry– comparative selection has the means to
ensure that the licence will be used– the banking community would not support an
auction
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Nicholas BladesMarket Scenarios
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Market & Revenue ModelMarket & Revenue ModelMarket & Revenue ModelMarket & Revenue Model
Objectives– addressable market sizing based on three
geographic areas• cities : nine UK urban centres modelled as one whole
• regional : remaining UK suburban areas
• coverage assumptions consistent with cost model
– revenues generated• telephony, Internet access & value added
• service take-up tailored to match max. subscriber density– focus on most profitable subscribers / services
Objectives– addressable market sizing based on three
geographic areas• cities : nine UK urban centres modelled as one whole
• regional : remaining UK suburban areas
• coverage assumptions consistent with cost model
– revenues generated• telephony, Internet access & value added
• service take-up tailored to match max. subscriber density– focus on most profitable subscribers / services
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Model OutputsModel OutputsModel OutputsModel Outputs
Series of revenue forecasts– city, regional, whole UK licence
Consistent assumptions with cost model Opex
– interconnect, other CoGS (e.g. CPE & installation)– marketing, SG&A costs
Subscriber forecast for input into cost model
Series of revenue forecasts– city, regional, whole UK licence
Consistent assumptions with cost model Opex
– interconnect, other CoGS (e.g. CPE & installation)– marketing, SG&A costs
Subscriber forecast for input into cost model
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FWA’s Position in the MarketFWA’s Position in the MarketFWA’s Position in the MarketFWA’s Position in the Market
FWA is small component of overall broadband market– limited spectrum– large number of
competing service providers
• over 100 service providers for DSL
• cable modem available to 50% of households
FWA is small component of overall broadband market– limited spectrum– large number of
competing service providers
• over 100 service providers for DSL
• cable modem available to 50% of households
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Broadband Subscribers (million)
Maximum Take-up of FWA
Other Access Technologies
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SensitivitiesSensitivitiesSensitivitiesSensitivities
Spectrum usage and build assumptions– limits the services and subscribers which can
be addressed– restricts market share aspirations
Rollout impact– denser networks take longer to rollout– revenues come on stream later– impact on return?
Spectrum usage and build assumptions– limits the services and subscribers which can
be addressed– restricts market share aspirations
Rollout impact– denser networks take longer to rollout– revenues come on stream later– impact on return?
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Nat - Sensitivity to Build Nat - Sensitivity to Build AssumptionsAssumptionsNat - Sensitivity to Build Nat - Sensitivity to Build AssumptionsAssumptions
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Half spectrum per cell - baseline cell size
Full spectrum per cell - baseline cell size
Half spectrum per cell - reduced cell size
Full spectrum per cell - reduced cell size
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Result of Spectrum AllocationResult of Spectrum AllocationResult of Spectrum AllocationResult of Spectrum Allocation
Lack of spectrum limits the maximum subscriber density achievable– spectrum driven subscriber density below the
market share objectives assumed for most scenarios
– operators will focus on the highest margin customers• lower likelihood of small businesses and residential
customers being addressed
Lack of spectrum limits the maximum subscriber density achievable– spectrum driven subscriber density below the
market share objectives assumed for most scenarios
– operators will focus on the highest margin customers• lower likelihood of small businesses and residential
customers being addressed
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Abdul LadakInfrastructure Rollout
Cost Model
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Stage 2 WorkStage 2 WorkStage 2 WorkStage 2 Work
Outline Planning and Dimensioning Outline Design Infrastructure and Rollout Costing Radio Modelling Further Work - Stage 4
Outline Planning and Dimensioning Outline Design Infrastructure and Rollout Costing Radio Modelling Further Work - Stage 4
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Outline Planning and DimensioningOutline Planning and DimensioningOutline Planning and DimensioningOutline Planning and Dimensioning
UK Footprint (1991 Census Data)
20,000 Sq. Km = 56% Population
therefore reasonable to assume
40,000 Sq. Km = 70% Population
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Capacity PlanningCapacity PlanningCapacity PlanningCapacity Planning
Half Spectrum Full Spectrum
F = 3.5 MHz (3.4 GHz) or 7 MHz (10 GHz) F = 7 MHz (3.4 GHz) or 14 MHz (10 GHz)
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Cell CapacityCell CapacityCell CapacityCell Capacity
Band Cell Structure Capacity
3.4 GHz A 21 Mbps
3.4 GHz B 42 Mbps
10 GHz A 42 Mbps
10 GHz B 84 Mbps
Assuming:
4QAM or QPSK
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Traffic and ServicesTraffic and ServicesTraffic and ServicesTraffic and Services
3.4 GHz Service
2 x 32K POTS + IP 512K Downlink / 128K Uplink
Contention Ratio Subscribers per Cell4:1 20010:1 40020:1 800
10 GHz Services
Contention Ratio Subscribers per CellISDN 2B+D N/A 50128K Leased Lines N/A 20Fraction E1 up to 2 Mbps 4:1 50Fraction E1 up to 2 Mbps 10:1 150Fraction E1 up to 2 Mbps 20:1 300
ISDN and leased lines are not considered viable services at 3.4 GHz due to lack ofspectrum.
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Design ModelsDesign ModelsDesign ModelsDesign ModelsA total of four design models have been created and costed. Cellular configurations foreach are defined as follows:
A = half spectrum per cell - normal cell sizeB = full spectrum per cell - normal cell sizeC = half spectrum per cell - reduced cell sizeD = full spectrum per cell - reduced cell size
Normal cell radius is shown in the table below:
3.4 GHz 10 GHzCity 8 Km 3 KmRegional 15 Km 8 KmRural 25 Km 15 Km
Reduced cell radius is shown in the table below:
3.4 GHz 10 GHzCity 3 Km 1 KmRegional 7 Km 3 KmRural 10 Km 7 Km
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SubscribersSubscribersSubscribersSubscribers
CellularConfiguration
3.4 GHz2x32K POTS +
512/128 K
10 GHzISDN 2B+D
10 GHz128K Leased
10 GHzUp To 2 Mbps
A City 16,800 7,500 3,000 45,000A Regions 40,800 9,000 3,600 54,000Total A 57,600 16,500 6,600 99,000B City 33,600 15,000 6,000 90,000B Regions 81,600 18,000 7,200 108,000Total B 115,200 33,000 13,200 198,000C City 120,000 67,300 26,920 403,800C Regions 188,800 64,100 25,640 384,600Total C 308,800 131,400 52,560 788,400D City 240,000 134,600 53,840 807,600D Regions 377,600 128,200 51,280 769,200Total D 617,600 262,800 105,120 1,576,800
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Outline Design ArchitectureOutline Design ArchitectureDesign Model ADesign Model AOutline Design ArchitectureOutline Design ArchitectureDesign Model ADesign Model A
2 x E1 (3.4 GHz)4 x E1 (10 GHz)
Add/Drop Mux
PTOPSTN
SDH RINGATM BACKBONE
CARRIERHUB
ACCESSCONCENTRATOR
ATM SWITCH
ST = SUBSCRIBER TERMINALSSME, CORPORATE, MULTI-TENANT
BS = BASE STATION SHELFCONTROLLERS, RF MODULES
STST
ST
ST
ST
BS
BS
BS
BS
BS
10 x E1 (3.4 GHz)1 x T3 (10 GHz)
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Outline Design ArchitectureOutline Design ArchitectureDesign Models C and DDesign Models C and DOutline Design ArchitectureOutline Design ArchitectureDesign Models C and DDesign Models C and D
AC
STST
ST
ST
ST
BS
BS
BS
BS
BS
AC
AC
Backbone
Switch
2/4/8 E1s
1/2 T3s
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““Lucky Break”Lucky Break”““Lucky Break”Lucky Break”
3.4 GHz and 10 GHz Site Sharing Low Site Acquisition Overheads Maximised Economies of Scale Rock Bottom Equipment Prices Increased Microwave Backhaul No Dark Fibre Lease Discounted Rate for Backbone Bandwidth
3.4 GHz and 10 GHz Site Sharing Low Site Acquisition Overheads Maximised Economies of Scale Rock Bottom Equipment Prices Increased Microwave Backhaul No Dark Fibre Lease Discounted Rate for Backbone Bandwidth
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Backhaul ProportionsBackhaul ProportionsBackhaul ProportionsBackhaul Proportions
Normal
Lucky Break
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Radio Modelling - Radio Modelling - ITU-R 525/526/530ITU-R 525/526/530Radio Modelling - Radio Modelling - ITU-R 525/526/530ITU-R 525/526/530
High Resolution (2m) 3D Data
CitySuburban Region 1Suburban Region 2
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Radio Coverage - CityRadio Coverage - CityRadio Coverage - CityRadio Coverage - City
City Centre - Building Height = 100m
3.4 GHz
10 GHz
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Radio Coverage - RegionRadio Coverage - RegionRadio Coverage - RegionRadio Coverage - Region
Suburban Region 1 - Building Height = 35m
3.4 GHz
10 GHz
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Radio Coverage - RegionRadio Coverage - RegionRadio Coverage - RegionRadio Coverage - Region
Suburban Region 2 - Building Height = 32m
10 GHz
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The Way It Works…ConceptuallyThe Way It Works…ConceptuallyThe Way It Works…ConceptuallyThe Way It Works…Conceptually
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Radio Modelling - Interference ITU-R 452Radio Modelling - Interference ITU-R 452Radio Modelling - Interference ITU-R 452Radio Modelling - Interference ITU-R 452
3.4 GHz
Class 1 Subscriber Antenna Mask
Back-to-Front Ratio or Side and Back Lobes Reduced by:-
0 dB :81% Interference10 dB:54% Interference20 dB:2% Interference
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Conclusions and What Next ?Conclusions and What Next ?Conclusions and What Next ?Conclusions and What Next ?
Cell structure ‘D’ works….provided.. Optimum cell radius = reduced cell radius 16QAM is reasonable Target dense subscriber regions FDD vs TDD - co-existence Access Technologies co-existence Spectrum surveys and interference
Cell structure ‘D’ works….provided.. Optimum cell radius = reduced cell radius 16QAM is reasonable Target dense subscriber regions FDD vs TDD - co-existence Access Technologies co-existence Spectrum surveys and interference
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Saule ZhonkebayevaFinancial Modelling
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Purpose of the financial modelPurpose of the financial modelPurpose of the financial modelPurpose of the financial model
Examine under what conditions, operators of FWA licences will have a viable business
Model sensitivities to spectrum allocation
Examine under what conditions, operators of FWA licences will have a viable business
Model sensitivities to spectrum allocation
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Financial ModellingFinancial ModellingFinancial ModellingFinancial Modelling
COST DATA
Capital Expenditure
Licence Value
Operating Costs
MARKET DATA
Revenue
Direct Costs
Operating
Margin
FORECAST FINANCIALSTATEMENTS
Profit & loss accountBalance sheetSources & application of fundsCash flow
VALUATION
IRR - 18 %
FINANCINGLoan repayment term
Loan interest rates
Financing Charges
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Licence Valuation (base case)Licence Valuation (base case)Licence Valuation (base case)Licence Valuation (base case)
New
Venture
New
Venture
Existing operatorExisting operator
CityCity RegionalRegional NationalNational
Not ViableNot Viable
Not ViableNot Viable
ViableViable
ViableViable
ViableViable
ViableViable
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Licence Valuation (“lucky break”)Licence Valuation (“lucky break”)Licence Valuation (“lucky break”)Licence Valuation (“lucky break”)
New
Venture
New
Venture
Existing operatorExisting operator
CityCity RegionalRegional NationalNational
Not ViableNot Viable
ViableViable
ViableViable
ViableViable
ViableViable
ViableViable
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Ian JewittEconomic Analysis
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The Economic ObjectiveThe Economic ObjectiveThe Economic ObjectiveThe Economic Objective
EV = CS + PS + a x LV– a > 0 ?– Shadow price of funds
• estimated in US at 0.3
– Appropriately Discounted?• Discount EV at different rate than used in market and
financial models?
EV = CS + PS + a x LV– a > 0 ?– Shadow price of funds
• estimated in US at 0.3
– Appropriately Discounted?• Discount EV at different rate than used in market and
financial models?
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Consumer and Producer SurplusConsumer and Producer SurplusConsumer and Producer SurplusConsumer and Producer Surplus
Quantity
Price
marginal cost
CS
PS
p
q
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Efficient EntryEfficient EntryEfficient EntryEfficient Entry
Q
P
cost entrant
cost existing
q1 q2
A
B
EV = A+B+C
C
initial supply
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Inefficient EntryInefficient EntryInefficient EntryInefficient Entry
Q
P
cost entrant
cost existing
q1 q2
A
B
EV = A-B
initial supply
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Modelling AssumptionsModelling AssumptionsModelling AssumptionsModelling Assumptions
But predicted market shares must be modelled
Demand and Cost Conditions– Usual assumptions: OFTEL, KPMG, ...– Linear demand– Constant Unit Costs
Strategic Model– Base model, Cournot competition
But predicted market shares must be modelled
Demand and Cost Conditions– Usual assumptions: OFTEL, KPMG, ...– Linear demand– Constant Unit Costs
Strategic Model– Base model, Cournot competition
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Competition with other means of Competition with other means of access. access. Competition with other means of Competition with other means of access. access.
The market is for access, it competes with other products/bandwidth.
Leads to consideration of vertically differentiated products.
The market is for access, it competes with other products/bandwidth.
Leads to consideration of vertically differentiated products.
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Number of Licences: Competition Number of Licences: Competition versus Bandwidthversus BandwidthNumber of Licences: Competition Number of Licences: Competition versus Bandwidthversus Bandwidth
Splitting spectrum enhances competition at lower (bandwidth) end of market.
Possibly at expense of competition at the upper (bandwidth) end of the market.
Splitting spectrum enhances competition at lower (bandwidth) end of market.
Possibly at expense of competition at the upper (bandwidth) end of the market.
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Number of Licences: Competition Number of Licences: Competition versus Bandwidth (II)versus Bandwidth (II)Number of Licences: Competition Number of Licences: Competition versus Bandwidth (II)versus Bandwidth (II)
Effect of increasing number of licences
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 2 3 4 5 6
number of licences
total bandwidth supplied price incumbent price licencees
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Summary of AimsSummary of AimsSummary of AimsSummary of Aims
Aim to get licences to firms which have lowest costs of providing access.
To enhance competition. Especially in areas where it is currently
weak. Especially in areas where close substitute
services are not available.
Aim to get licences to firms which have lowest costs of providing access.
To enhance competition. Especially in areas where it is currently
weak. Especially in areas where close substitute
services are not available.
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Nicholas BladesWay Forward and
Spectrum Packaging
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Influencing Factors (1)Influencing Factors (1)
Business case– modelling can point to the key drivers in the business case– will not cover all of the possible variants– shows that a business case is possible not that it will be the one
used by any potential bidder Rollout
– licence clauses and packaging should enable as wide a roll-out as possible in terms of consumer coverage, not geographical coverage
– avoid sterilising areas containing customer concentrations that any spectrum package winner will not address
Spectrum efficiency
– don’t break up the licences into too many packages so that spectrum is wasted
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Influencing Factors (2)Influencing Factors (2)Influencing Factors (2)Influencing Factors (2) Market Sentiment
– operators are likely to borrow to pay for both a licence and the network capex
– the level and the terms of lending are critical to understanding what the financial markets will support
– although analysis may point to one licence value, this assumes that there is a highly liquid capital market
Simple and robust process– the configuration and process should be driven by the influencing
factors– tempered with pragmatic approach to a workable process
Enhance competition– not as dominant a requirement in the cities and suburbs where xDSL
and cable modem will provide choice in the delivery of broadband
Market Sentiment– operators are likely to borrow to pay for both a licence and the network
capex– the level and the terms of lending are critical to understanding what the
financial markets will support– although analysis may point to one licence value, this assumes that
there is a highly liquid capital market Simple and robust process
– the configuration and process should be driven by the influencing factors
– tempered with pragmatic approach to a workable process Enhance competition
– not as dominant a requirement in the cities and suburbs where xDSL and cable modem will provide choice in the delivery of broadband
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Way Forward:Way Forward:Main Outputs from Stage 5Main Outputs from Stage 5Way Forward:Way Forward:Main Outputs from Stage 5Main Outputs from Stage 5
Allow viable business cases to bid Avoid sterilisation of rural areas
– allows rural cases to be explored by the market : Rural White Paper
Efficient spectrum usage Simple and robust process
Allow viable business cases to bid Avoid sterilisation of rural areas
– allows rural cases to be explored by the market : Rural White Paper
Efficient spectrum usage Simple and robust process
Spectrum Package(s) Delivery Processes
Influencing factors Inputs from Stage 4 Modelling
Influencing factors Inputs from Stage 4 Modelling
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Five Options for Spectrum Five Options for Spectrum Packaging (1)Packaging (1)Five Options for Spectrum Five Options for Spectrum Packaging (1)Packaging (1)
National Licences
– one to four depending on whether 3.4 & 10GHz are packaged together
Regional (“Critical Mass”) Licences
– creating areas of critical mass, not just using a standard regional definition
“Hot Spots”
– licences for metropolitan areas (cities and suburbs) have proved viable in the Stage 2 analysis
– viability of each hotspot can be tested further
• packages likely to sell? - market test
– further work needed to define approach to rural areas
National Licences
– one to four depending on whether 3.4 & 10GHz are packaged together
Regional (“Critical Mass”) Licences
– creating areas of critical mass, not just using a standard regional definition
“Hot Spots”
– licences for metropolitan areas (cities and suburbs) have proved viable in the Stage 2 analysis
– viability of each hotspot can be tested further
• packages likely to sell? - market test
– further work needed to define approach to rural areas
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Five Options for Spectrum Five Options for Spectrum Packaging (2)Packaging (2)Five Options for Spectrum Five Options for Spectrum Packaging (2)Packaging (2)
No sale at present
– reflect market sentiment
– wait until more spectrum is available Use for purpose other than FWA
No sale at present
– reflect market sentiment
– wait until more spectrum is available Use for purpose other than FWA
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Stage 4 ModellingStage 4 ModellingStage 4 ModellingStage 4 Modelling
Model 3.4 GHz and 10 GHz separately increase granularity of modelling and
focus on a few likely scenarios, selecting those with combination of:– best business case– highest EV
look at impact of inclusion of rural areas, as well as effect of de-averaged pricing
look at impact of price declines
Model 3.4 GHz and 10 GHz separately increase granularity of modelling and
focus on a few likely scenarios, selecting those with combination of:– best business case– highest EV
look at impact of inclusion of rural areas, as well as effect of de-averaged pricing
look at impact of price declines
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Ian JewittAward Process
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The Process?The Process?The Process?The Process?
Variables under consideration are:– Licence Configurations– Means of Payment– Conditions on Licences– Method of Assignment
Variables under consideration are:– Licence Configurations– Means of Payment– Conditions on Licences– Method of Assignment
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The Process? (II)The Process? (II)The Process? (II)The Process? (II)
Licence Configuration– National– Regional – Other
• Hotspots
• Critical mass
Licence Configuration– National– Regional – Other
• Hotspots
• Critical mass
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The Process? (III)The Process? (III)The Process? (III)The Process? (III)
Means of Payment– Cash up front?– Annual fees?– Royalties?
Conditions on Licences– Roll out conditions?
• Penalties
• Credits
– Use-it-or-lose-it?
Means of Payment– Cash up front?– Annual fees?– Royalties?
Conditions on Licences– Roll out conditions?
• Penalties
• Credits
– Use-it-or-lose-it?
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The Process? (IV)The Process? (IV)The Process? (IV)The Process? (IV)
Method of Assignment– Auction
• pre-qualification?
• sealed tender, ascending open ...
– Comparative Selection• criteria ...
– Hybrids• comparative selection with fee as one criteria
• incentives for roll out
– First-come-first-served (in rural areas?)
– Lottery
Method of Assignment– Auction
• pre-qualification?
• sealed tender, ascending open ...
– Comparative Selection• criteria ...
– Hybrids• comparative selection with fee as one criteria
• incentives for roll out
– First-come-first-served (in rural areas?)
– Lottery