Download - AXTA Final Pitch (1)
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Axalta CoatingSystemsLtd.BruinValueInvestingPresentedBy:
AllenKhatchatrianJonathanZouVatsal Gupta
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CompanyOverview2
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Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
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NYSE: AXTAPosition: LongCurrentPrice: $27.49MarketCap: $6.52billion
Headquarters: Philadelphia,PennsylvaniaUSAEmployees: 12,80052WeekRange: $20.67– $36.50
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Basic Company Information
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NetSales $4.1BillionAdjustedEBITDA $867MillionAdjustedEBITDAMargin 20%
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Refinish Segment Sales, Marketing and Distribution
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Transportation Coatings Sales, Marketing and Distribution
• Fulltime technical representatives stationed at OEM facilities around the world• Onsite representatives provide customer support, monitor the painting process
and track paint demand at each assembly plant
• Sell and ship products directly to light vehicle OEM customers in each of their four regions coordinated via a global point of contact for each customer
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Axalta Employs a Service-Led Business Model
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InvestmentThesis8
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Investment ThesisWe believe Axalta is a high quality business that is undergoing transformation from being a small business segment under DuPoint to being an independent company. With a strong moat, ability to pay down LBO incurred debt, predictable free cash flow, a management to lead the company to meet its goals, and a 60% upside from today’s price, we believe this presents us with an attractive investment opportunity. We see foreign exchange volatility and the continued bearish view on the automotive as potential risks to realizing the upside.
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Investment Highlights
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GlobalMarketLeader11
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Global Sales Distribution
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Geographical Breakdown of Sales
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33.6%
34.9%
17.6%
14.0%
GeographicalBreakdownofSales
NorthAmerica EMEA AsiaPacific LatinAmerica
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Global Market Leader in an Attractive Industry
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Performance Coatings: Refinish Transportation Coatings: Light Vehicles Transportation Coatings: Commercial Vehicles
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CompetitiveAdvantage15
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Sustainable Competitive Advantage
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Network Effect
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• Axalta’s product is 30% cheaper than its competitor
• Our primary research shows that repair cost estimation is irrespective of the paint used
• ‘Mom and Pop’ body shops would want to switch to Axalta to increase margins
Fig.: Actual estimate of a collision damage by Axalta body shop
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Barriers to Entry
Manufacturers will not risk switching to a different supplier if launching new line
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95% Customer Retention Rate
9 of 10
Top Auto Producers are Customers
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Environmentally-Friendly Paint
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Variable Cost Structure and Low Capital Intensity
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Pricing Power in Major Business Segment
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3.3%
4.8%
1.9% 2.0%
3.4% 3.6%
1.5%
1.5%
0.6%
6.2%
1.7% 1.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15
Performance Coating Sales Growth ex-FX
VolumeIncreases HigherAverageSellingPrice
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FinancialOverview22
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Revenue and EBITDA Projections
$-
$1,000.0
$2,000.0
$3,000.0
$4,000.0
$5,000.0
$6,000.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Revenue Projections
PerformanceCoatings TransportationCoatings
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
19.5%
20.0%
20.5%
21.0%
$-
$200.0
$400.0
$600.0
$800.0
$1,000.0
$1,200.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Adjusted EBITDA
AdjustedEBITDA AdjustedEBITDAMargin%
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Prioritization of Capital Spending; Focus On High IRR CapEx
$12.0
$53.0 $49.4 $46.6 $48.3 $50.3 $47.1 $48.7$38.0
$75.0
$31.2 $42.4 $43.9$48.0 $54.1
$58.5$59.0
$60.0
$57.6
$59.3$61.4
$61.7$63.6
$63.3
$-
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
$140.0
$160.0
$180.0
$200.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CapitalExpenditureProjections
Growth Productivity Maintenance
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Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
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Totaladjustmentsfornon-cashcharges 211.5$ 266.2$ 334.6$ 311.4$ 319.8$ 336.8$ 345.4$ 357.3$
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020AdjustedEBITDA 730.2$ 832.5$ 837.0$ 824.2$ 857.0$ 918.2$ 944.6$ 1,002.0$NOPAT 356.5$ 520.8$ 457.8$ 369.3$ 386.8$ 412.8$ 425.4$ 457.7$
TotalChangesinOperatingAssets&Liabilities 198.8$ (118.4)$ (169.4)$ (7.2)$ (25.5)$ (54.6)$ (22.2)$ (35.6)$MaintenanceCapEx 59.0$ 60.0$ 57.6$ 59.3$ 61.4$ 61.7$ 63.6$ 63.3$
1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00UnleveredFreeCashFlow 707.8$ 608.6$ 565.5$ 614.2$ 619.7$ 633.3$ 685.1$ 716.0$
UsingUnleveredFreeCashFlowandEnterpriseValue
DiscountRate(WACC) 6.0% PVofTerminalValue: $10,721TotalDebt 3,442.0$ SumofPVofFreeCashFlows: 2,839.9$CostofDebt 4.25% ImpliedEnterpriseValue: $13,561TotalEquity 1,141.2$ Less:Totaldebt 3,442.0$CostofEquity 15% Plus:Cash 485.0$EffectiveTaxRate 28% Equityvalue $10,604
Dilutedsharesoutstanding 239.7BaselineTerminalUFCFGrowthRate: 1.0% ImpliedperSharePrice $44.24BaselineTerminalValue: $14,369 Priceasof5/23/2016 27.71$
Upside 59.6%
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Comparable Companies AnalysisPublicComparables
Refinish LightVehiclesMarketCap(inmillions)
%ofTotalSales
EBITDAMargin
%ofTotalSales
EBITDAMargin
ROIC(EBIT/(NWC+NFA))
EV/(EBITDA -Main.CapEx) P/FCF MCX/Revenue
PPG $29,070.00 57.2% 21.6% 35.7% 24.7% 28.9% 16.9x 19.9x 2.4%AkzoNobel € 17,686.18 40.1% 15.8% N/A N/A 30.9% 13.2x 40.8x 3.3%BASF € 61.68 4.5% 12.0% 9.0% 12.0% 18.9% 3.7x 0.02x 6.3%
AXTA $6,598.94 41.6% 22.6% 32.1% 19.3% 21.9% 12.3x 26.26x 1.4%
Mean $17,166.55 37% 18% 25% 20% 29% 11.24x 22.25x 4.4%Median $19,454.80 40.1% 15.8% 22.3% 18.4% 28.9% 13.2x 19.9x 3.3%75thPercentile $29,070.00 57.2% 21.6% N/A N/A 30.9% 16.9x 40.8x 6.3%25thPercentile € 61.68 4.5% 12.0% N/A N/A 18.9% 3.7x 0.0x 2.4%
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Comparable Companies Analysis (cont’d)ImpliedperSharePriceCalculation
EBITDA,lastFY $837.0
(-)MaintenanceCapEx $57.6
*MedianEV/(EBITDA - Main.CapEx) 13.2x
ImpliedEV $10,260.3
(-) NetDebt $2,957.0
EquityValue $7,303.3
/
DilutedWeightedSharesOutstanding $239.7
ImpliedperSharePrice $30.5
Priceasof5/23/2016 $27.7
Upside 10.0%
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Risks28
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Risks
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30% • Carlyle acquired Axalta - February 2013
• IPO – November 2014
• 12 of 16 Senior Executives from Carlyle
• Carlyle may have motives that may adversely affect Axalta
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Risks (cont’d)
• FX Risk – Volatile Currency Market• 6.4% Unfavorable Currency
Impact in Q1 - 2016
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EUR/USD
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Conclusion31
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What is the Market Missing? • Investors worry about the impact on Axalta whenever new vehicle sales
decline• Those fears are probably overblown -- new cars account for only about 11% of
the company’s sales in the U.S., and a similar amount in Europe
• Mr Market is valuing Axalta in line with its peers, but intrinsically, the company is worth more because of its market share and inherently better business model• Mr Market is wrongly correlating the cyclical auto-industry and crude oil
prices with the value it assigns to Axalta• Its peers highly depend on oil for their raw materials and are also subjected to
auto-market cycles
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Catalysts to Unlock Value• Market consolidation of MSOs in the United States• Axalta has a dominant share of larger body shops’ business, and should benefit
as these players buy mom-and-pop operations
• Stabilization of the US dollar and recovery of global currencies • More than 65% of Axalta’s sales come from outside the US
• Rapid growth of middle-class in emerging economies• China car parc estimated to grow at 15% annually till 2018
• Globalizing existing products to reach underserved markets
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ThankYou!34
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Appendix35
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Appendix– TableofContents• CoatingIndustryGrowthOutlook
• ProjectedGlobalIndustrySales• ProfitableGrowthInitiatives• ProfitableGrowthInitiativeResults
• AcceleratingGrowthinEmergingMarkets
• DebtPaydown–NetLeverageReductionSinceLBO
• RefinishMarketOverview• RefinishProcess• IndustrialMarket• LightVehicleMarket• CommercialVehicleMarket
• AllMarketsSegmented• Pro-FormaOperatingModel• OperatingModelAssumptionsandMargins
• AdjustedEBITDAReconciliation• AdjustedEBITDAProjection• LeveredFCFProjection• UnleveredFCFProjection• FCFProjectionAssumptions• OwnershipBreakdown• Management• ExecutiveCompensation• InsiderTransactions• AssetComposition
• CashFlowChart• EPSChart• COGs&SG&A• RawMaterialsBreakdown• NetDebt&FCFChart• U.SBodyShopProductSegmentation
• PaintLayers• LightVehicleSalesForecast2011-2020
• TechnologyperPaintLayer• MarketAnalysis
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Coating Industry Growth Outlook
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Projected Global Industry SalesProjectedGlobalSales
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Refinish
AsiaPacific 12.50% 5.56% 5.26% 5.00%LatinAmerica 11.11% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%EMEA 3.00% 3.12% 3.03% 2.94%NorthAmerica 4.17% 4.00% 2.00% 3.85%
Industrial
AsiaPacific 6.13% 6.22% 6.28% 6.30%LatinAmerica 5.88% 1.66% 3.33% 5.26%EMEA 3.00% 2.91% 2.75% 3.67%NorthAmerica 2.94% 4.29% 2.74% 4.00%
LightVehicles
AsiaPacific 3.23% 3.12% 6.06% 2.86%LatinAmerica 4.50% 11.11% 15.63% 5.71%EMEA 5.00% 1.90% 2.80% 2.08%NorthAmerica 8.33% 3.08% -8.06% -3.08%
CommercialVehicles
AsiaPacific 4.13% 5.43% 5.15% 3.87%LatinAmerica 2.35% 5.96% 5.19% 6.58%EMEA 4.11% 6.03% 5.69% 4.97%NorthAmerica 1.44% 3.29% 4.37% 5.52%
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Profitable Growth Initiatives
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Profitable Growth Initiative Results
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Accelerating Growth in Emerging Markets
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Net Leverage Reduction
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Refinish Market Overview
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Refinish Market Process
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Industrial Market
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LightVehicleMarket
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CommercialVehicleMarket
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SegmentingourMarkets
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Pro-Forma Operating ModelIncomeStatement($inmillions)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Revenue:Refinish $1,661.8 $1,850.8 $1,702.0 $1,743.5 $1,805.8 $1,868.0 $1,909.6 $1,965.3Industrial $658.3 $734.2 $683.1 $715.8 $750.2 $788.1 $825.9 $867.2
Performance Coatings,total $2,320.2 $2,585.0 $2,385.1 $2,459.3 $2,556.0 $2,656.1 $2,735.5 $2,832.5LightVehicles $1,296.1 $1,384.5 $1,310.6 $1,348.6 $1,386.6 $1,443.6 $1,481.5 $1,527.7Commercial Vehicles $334.5 $392.2 $391.5 $404.9 $424.3 $445.9 $466.9 $487.9
TransportationCoatings,total $1,630.6 $1,776.7 $1,702.1 $1,753.5 $1,810.9 $1,889.5 $1,948.4 $2,015.6Otherrevenue $35.7 $29.8 $26.1 $23.0 $22.0 $23.0 $24.2 $24.6Totalrevenues $3,986.5 $4,391.5 $4,113.3 $4,235.8 $4,388.9 $4,568.6 $4,708.1 $4,872.7COGS $2,772.8 $2,897.2 $2,597.3 $2,753.3 $2,852.8 $2,969.6 $2,966.1 $3,069.8GrossProfit $1,213.7 $1,494.3 $1,516.0 $1,482.5 $1,536.1 $1,599.0 $1,742.0 $1,802.9R&D $40.5 $49.5 $51.6 $42.4 $43.9 $45.7 $47.1 $48.7SG&A $1,040.6 $991.5 $914.8 $1,001.4 $1,037.5 $1,080.0 $1,113.0 $1,151.9Amortizationofacquiredintangibles $79.9 $83.8 $80.7 $80.2 $79.9 $79.8 $79.8 $79.8M&Arelatedexpenses $28.1 $- $- $- $- $- $- $-EBIT $24.6 $369.5 $468.9 $358.6 $374.8 $393.5 $502.1 $522.5Interestexpense,net $215.1 $217.7 $196.5 $190.0 $198.2 $198.2 $200.0 $200.0Bridgefinancing commitmentfees $25.0 $- $- $- $- $- $- $-Otherexpenses, net $48.5 $115.0 $111.2 $127.1 $131.7 $137.1 $141.2 $146.2EBT $(264.0) $36.8 $161.2 $41.5 $44.9 $58.2 $160.9 $176.3Provisionforincome taxes $(44.8) $2.1$63.3 $100.4 $104.9 $114.1 $145.6 $151.5Netincome(loss) $(219.2) $34.7 $97.9 $(58.9) $(60.0) $(55.9) $15.3 $24.8Netincome(loss) attributabletononcontrollinginterests $6.0$7.3$4.2$5.8$5.8$5.3$5.6$5.6NetincomeattributabletoAXTA $(225.2) $27.4 $93.7 $(64.7) $(65.8) $(61.2) $9.6$19.2
Basicweightedaveragesharesoutstanding 228.3 229.3 233.8 237.31 240.87 243.28 245.71 248.17Dilutedweightedaveragesharesoutstanding 228.3 230.3 239.7 242.15 245.78 248.24 250.72 253.23
GAAPEPS,basic $(1.0) $0.1$0.4$(0.3) $(0.3) $(0.3) $0.0$0.1GAAPEPS,diluted $(1.0) $0.1$0.4$(0.3) $(0.3) $(0.2) $0.0$0.1
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Operating Model AssumptionsAssumptionsandMargins
Refinishsegmentgrowthrate - 11% -8% 2% 4% 3% 2% 3%Industrialsegmentgrowtrate - 12% -7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%LightVehiclessegmentgrowthrate - 7% -5% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3%CommercialVehiclessegmentgrowthrate - 17% 0% 3% 5% 5% 5% 5%Otherrevenueasa%oftotalrevenue 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%COGSasa%ofrevenue 70% 66% 63% 65% 65% 65% 63% 63%SG&Aasa%ofrevenue 26% 23% 22% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24%R&Dasa%ofrevenue 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%Interestexpense $215.1 $217.7 $196.5 $190.00 $198.20 $198.20 $202.62 $202.62Otherexpenseasa%ofsales 1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%Effectivetaxrate -182% 1% 13% 28% 28% 29% 29% 29%Netincome(loss)attributabletononcontrollinginterest $6.00 $7.30 $4.20 $5.83 $5.78 $5.27 $5.63 $5.56
GAAPgrossmargin 30% 34% 37% 35% 35% 35% 37% 37%GAAPEBITmargin 1% 8% 11% 8% 9% 9% 11% 11%
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Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
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Adjusted EBITDA ProjectionsAdjustedEBITDAProjection($inmillions)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Revenue:Refinish $1,661.8 $1,850.8 $1,702.0 $1,743.5 $1,805.8 $1,868.0 $1,909.6 $1,965.3Industrial $658.3$734.2$683.1$715.8$750.2$788.1$825.9$867.2
PerformanceCoatings,total $2,320.2 $2,585.0 $2,385.1 $2,459.3 $2,556.0 $2,656.1 $2,735.5 $2,832.5LightVehicles $1,296.1 $1,384.5 $1,310.6 $1,348.6 $1,386.6 $1,443.6 $1,481.5 $1,527.7CommercialVehicles $334.5$392.2$391.5$404.9$424.3$445.9$466.9$487.9
TransportationCoatings,total $1,630.6 $1,776.7 $1,702.1 $1,753.5 $1,810.9 $1,889.5 $1,948.4 $2,015.6Totalcoatingsrevenue $3,950.8 $4,361.7 $4,087.2 $4,212.8 $4,366.9 $4,545.6 $4,683.9 $4,848.1
SegmentAdjustedEBITDA:PerformanceCoatings $518.7$547.6$539.1$541.0$562.3$597.6$615.5$651.5TransportationCoatings $218.9$292.9$328.1$315.6$326.0$349.6$360.5$383.0
Cash-lossadjustments:Stock-basedcompensation $7.40 $8.00 $30.20$32.4 $31.2 $29.0 $31.3 $32.4TotalAdjustedEBITDA $730.2$832.5$837.0$824.2$857.0$918.2$944.6$1,002.0Adj.EBITDAMargin 18.5% 19.1% 20.5% 19.6% 19.6% 20.2% 20.2% 20.7%
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Unlevered Free Cash Flow ProjectionsUnleveredFreeCashFlowProjections($inmillions)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020AdjustedEBITDA $730.2$832.5$837.0$824.2 $857.0 $918.2 $944.6 $1,002.0Depreciationandamortization:
Depreciation $174.3$176.6$169.1$176.6 $180.0 $188.5 $194.5 $200.7Amortization $126.4$132.1$138.6$134.8 $139.9 $148.3 $150.9 $156.6
AdjustedEBIT $429.5$523.8$529.3$512.9 $537.2 $581.4 $599.2 $644.7Effective tax rate 17.0% 0.6% 13.5% 28.0% 28.0% 29.0% 29.0% 29.0%
NOPAT $356.5$520.8$457.8$369.3 $386.8 $412.8 $425.4 $457.7
Non-cashadjustments:Depreciationandamortization:
Depreciation $174.3$176.6$169.1$176.6 $180.0 $188.5 $194.5 $200.7Amortization $126.4$132.1$138.6$134.8 $139.9 $148.3 $150.9 $156.6
Amortizationoffinancingcostsandoriginalissuediscount $18.4$21.0$20.6$- $- $- $- $-
Deferred incometax $(120.8)$(38.2)$(5.0)$- $- $- $- $-Othernon-cash,net $13.2$(25.3)$11.3$- $- $- $- $-
Totaladjustmentsfornon-cashcharges $211.5$266.2$334.6 $311.4 $319.8 $336.8 $345.4 $357.3
Decrease (increase) inoperatingassetsandliabilities:Trade accountsandnotesreceivable $(6.4)$(40.2)$(61.1)$(67.5) $(0.2) $(38.8) $(34.1) $(24.9)Inventories $33.9$(24.7)$(35.2)$(9.5) $(17.4) $(32.4) $6.3 $(21.0)Prepaidexpensesandotherassets $(90.9)$(54.1)$(65.6)$3.1 $(6.4) $(3.1) $(0.4) $(3.5)Accountspayable $67.1$53.6$(6.7)$21.0 $17.4 $22.3 $(2.1) $18.2Incometaxpayables $2.0$1.8$(0.7) $- $- $- $- $-Otheraccrued liabilities $193.1$(54.8)$(0.1)$45.7 $(18.9) $(2.6) $8.1 $(4.5)
TotalChangesinOperatingAssets&Liabilities $198.8$(118.4)$(169.4) $(7.2) $(25.5) $(54.6) $(22.2) $(35.6)
Capitalexpenditure:Growth $12.0$53.0$49.4$46.6 $48.3 $50.3 $47.1 $48.7Productivity $38.0$75.0$31.2$42.4 $43.9 $48.0 $54.1 $58.5Maintenance $59.0$60.0$57.6$59.3 $61.4 $61.7 $63.6 $63.3
1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00Unlevered Free CashFlow $707.8$608.6$565.5$614.2 $619.7 $633.3 $685.1 $716.0
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Levered Free Cash Flow ProjectionsLeveredFreeCashFlowProjections($inmillions)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020DebtRepaymentsLongTermDebt (25.3) (33.8) (16.9) $(38.10) $(29.50) $(28.10) $(27.60) $(30.83)ShortTermDebt (21.3) (121.1) (127.3) $(124.20) $(125.75) $(124.98) $(125.36) $(125.17)
1 2 3 4 5LeveredFree CashFlow $482.65 $237.26 $251.29 $315.06 $321.74 $339.53 $390.10 $418.05
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Free Cash Flow Projection AssumptionsAssumptions
Depreciationasa%ofrevenue 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%Amortizationasa%ofrevenue 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%A/R $865.9 $820.4 $765.8 $833.3$833.5$872.3$906.4$931.3Inventories $550.2 $538.3 $530.7 $540.2$557.5$589.9$583.6$604.6Prepaidexpenses andotherassets $50.2 $62.9 $63.6 $60.5$66.9$70.0$70.4$73.9A/P $478.5 $494.5 $454.7 $475.7$493.1$515.4$513.3$531.5Incometaxpayables $5.5 $7.3 $6.6 $6.6 $6.6 $6.6 $6.6 $6.6Otheraccruedliabilities $472.7 $404.8 $370.2 $415.9$397.0$394.4$402.4$397.9
A/R%Revenue 21.7% 18.7% 18.6% 19.7% 19.0% 19.1% 19.3% 19.1%Inventories%CostofSales 19.8% 18.6% 20.4% 19.6% 19.5% 19.9% 19.7% 19.7%PrepaidExpenses&OtherCurrentAssets%OpEx 4.8% 6.3% 7.0% 6.0% 6.4% 6.5% 6.3% 6.4%AccountsPayable%CostofSales 17.3% 17.1% 17.5% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%
CapitalExpenditure: 107.3 188.4 138.1 $148.25 $153.61 $159.90 $164.78 $170.55CapExasa%ofrevenue 2.7% 4.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%Growthasa%ofrevenue 0.30% 1.21% 1.20% 1.10% 1.10% 1.10% 1.00% 1.00%Maintenanceasa%ofrevenue 1.48% 1.37% 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% 1.35% 1.35% 1.30%Productivityasa%ofrevenue 1.0% 1.7% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2%
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Ownership Breakdown
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Management
• CharlesW.Shaver,Chairman andChiefExecutiveOfficer
• RobertW.Bryant,ExecutiveVicePresidentandChiefFinancialOfficer
• StevenR.Markevich,ExecutiveVicePresidentandPresident,Transportation Coatings &GreaterChina
• MichaelA.Cash,SeniorVicePresidentandPresident,Industrial Coatings
• JosephF.McDougall, SeniorVicePresidentandChiefHumanResourcesOfficer
• The management team, together with Carlyle Group, bought the business from DuPont at the beginning of 2013, and took it public in the fall of 2014 at $19.50 a share.• DuPont milked it for cash, but Axalta’s
chief executive, Charles Shaver, and chief financial officer, Robert Bryant, transformed the business by bringing in top talent, implementing accountability across the organization, and investing for growth.
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Executive Compensation
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Insider Transactions
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Asset Composition
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Cash Flow
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Earnings Per Share
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COGS and SG&A
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Raw Materials
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Net Debt & FCF
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US Body Shop Product Segmentation
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Paint Layers
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Light Vehicle Sales Forecast
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Source:KPMG
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Technology per Paint Layer
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Market Analysis
70
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
LOW
MEDIUM
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