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Behavioural Experiments in Social-Ecological Systems with Thresholds
Juan C. Rocha, Caroline Schill, Anne-Sophie Crepin & Therese Lindahl
@juanrocha
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How does people behave when dealing with situations pervaded by threshold (uncertainty)?
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Framed field experiment• 256 participants / 4 fishing
communities
• Largely depend on natural resources as main source of income
• History of regime shifts - critical transitions:
• Mangroves collapse (1980s -90s)
• Hypoxia events and fish deadlines
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Recent hypoxia events - 2016
SeptemberJuly August Last week
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A day of field work
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• Dynamic game • Monetary incentives: 1 fish worth 500 Pesos • Communication allowed throughout the
game • Participants did not know the # rounds to
be played • Session lasted about 3 hrs • Average earnings = ~20k COP ~€ 5.50;
range: 3,000 - 40,000 COP (+ show-up fee of 15,000 COP), about a daily wage, paid privately at the end of the session
Experimental design: set-up and procedure
Earnings paid privately at the end
Communication allowed
Monetary incentives
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STAGE 1: 6 rounds
For all groups the same, independent of treatment
Baseline
Dynamic common pool resource game
Start
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STAGE 1: 6 rounds
For all groups the same, independent of treatment
Baseline
STAGE 2: 10 rounds
All groups start again with 50 resource stock units
Dynamic common pool resource game
Start
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STAGE 1: 6 rounds
For all groups the same, independent of treatment
Threshold• climate event has happened
Baseline
STAGE 2: 10 rounds
All groups start again with 50 resource stock units
Dynamic common pool resource game
Start
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STAGE 1: 6 rounds
For all groups the same, independent of treatment
Threshold• climate event has happened
Risk• long-lasting climate event might
happen, known probability (0.5)
Baseline
STAGE 2: 10 rounds
All groups start again with 50 resource stock units
Dynamic common pool resource game
Start
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STAGE 1: 6 rounds
For all groups the same, independent of treatment
Threshold• climate event has happened
Ambiguity• long-lasting climate event might
happen, unknown probability
Risk• long-lasting climate event might
happen, known probability (0.5)
Baseline
STAGE 2: 10 rounds
All groups start again with 50 resource stock units
Dynamic common pool resource game
Start
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STAGE 1: 6 rounds
For all groups the same, independent of treatment
Baseline• no change
Threshold• climate event has happened
Ambiguity• long-lasting climate event might
happen, unknown probability
Risk• long-lasting climate event might
happen, known probability (0.5)
Baseline
STAGE 2: 10 rounds
All groups start again with 50 resource stock units
Dynamic common pool resource game
Start
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Visualisations
Monetary incentives
Decision cards
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Result 1: there is a treatment effect at group level
Groups in the threshold, risk and uncertainty treatment achieved a higher average stock size over time.
Pairwise Wilcox text (Bonferroni adjusted)
BaselineRiskThresholdRisk0.00160--Threshold0.000161.00000-Uncertainty8.1e-110.017820.00041
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Fishermen facing thresholds presented a more conservative behaviour on the exploration of the parameter space of
resource exploitation.
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Buenavista
Las Flores
Tasajeras
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Result 2: Treatment effect at individual level
• Threshold: • Base line = 20
• Treatments = 28
• Cooperation = (StockSize - Threshold / 4) - IndExtraction
• Are there fisher styles?
BuenavistaLasFloresTagangaLasFlores2.6e-11--Taganga0.00038<2e-16-Tasajera0.02236<2e-160.10150
Pairwise Wilcox text (Bonferroni adjusted)
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Result 2: Treatment effect at individual level
• Threshold: • Base line = 20
• Treatments = 28
• Cooperation = (StockSize - Threshold / 4) - IndExtraction
• Are there fisher styles?
BuenavistaLasFloresTagangaLasFlores2.6e-11--Taganga0.00038<2e-16-Tasajera0.02236<2e-160.10150
Pairwise Wilcox text (Bonferroni adjusted)
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Random effects panel model shows that treatment, place and time have significant effects on cooperation, but effect differs if at group or individual levels.
Taganga
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What’s going on in these areas?
Lower education and older population
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Dramatic changes?
Buenavista & Las Flores have experience more abrupt changes
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Buenavista
Poorest, and they are on their own
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Las Flores
Lots of cooperatives but weak cooperation
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Concluding remarks• Fishermen facing (uncertain) thresholds
exhibit a more precautionary behaviour as a group
• Speculation collapse:
• groups come often from communities with higher livelihood diversification, lower resource dependence
• and strongly exposed to infrastructure development
• Higher noise on resource dynamics masks the relationship between fishing efforts and stock size encouraging a more explorative behaviour of fishing effort in real life.
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Questions? e-mail: [email protected] twitter: @juanrocha
slides: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com/
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Experimental design of dynamic CPR game: communication of risk/ uncertainty
Risk Uncertainty
+ 8 of unknown colour
(Constant) probability of 0.5 that the event happens in following round
(Constant) probability range between 1/10 and 9/10 that the event happens in following round