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Republic of Turkey
Ministry of Forestry and Water Works General Directorate of Turkish Meteorological Service
93rd AMS Annual Meeting, Austin Texas 6-10 January 2013
BLACK SEA AND MIDDLE EAST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SYSTEM
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• Floods occur mostly as flash floods in Turkey,
causing dozens of deaths annually,
• There are not any enough (sufficient) efforts to prevent
human and property losses due to flash floods,
• Only limited flash flood warnings are issued,
• There are not enough institutional capacities
and cooperation among responsible authorities,
Needs
93rd AMS Annual Meeting, Austin Texas 6-10 January 2013
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• Rivers forecasting systems are not sufficient for flash flood
warnings,
• Meteorological observation networks are located in cities
and towns while stream gauges are used for river flooding,
reservoir design and operations,
• Flash flood occurrence increased due to increase of thunder
storm frequency.
Needs (Cont.)
93rd AMS Annual Meeting, Austin Texas 6-10 January 2013
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Needs (Cont.)
Flood Frequencies:
Flash flood occurred in Samsun province on 3 July 2012
and Radar precipitation.
0
20
40
60
80
Human and Economical Losses
due to Floods in Turkey
Deaths Economical Loss (Million USD)
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Project Objectives
• General objective is to establish Flash Flood Guidance System
in the Black Sea and Middle East Region as a part of worldwide
WMO network in order to increase regional capacity to mitigate
the adverse affects of flash floods.
• Specific objective is to produce operational flash flood
guidance products for national Hydro-Meteorological Services,
Disaster and Water Management Authorities to provide real time
flash floods warnings with high hit rate.
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Black Sea and Middle East Flash Flood Guidance System (BSME-FFG)
• BSME-FFG initial meeting was held in
Istanbul on 29-31 March 2010 with the
participating countries of Turkey,
Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Iraq, Syria
and Lebanon and Turkey was elected as
regional center.
• Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia,
Syria and Bulgaria have sent Letters of
Commitment to WMO .
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Implementation Phases
Phase I
Setting up of
Model Parameters
Faz II
Calibration
Faz III
Test Studies
Topography, Soil,
Vegetation cover,
infrastructure (Dams
etc.),Hydrometeorogi
cal Data.
Historical
hydrometeorologi
cal Data (Stream
flow, Precipt.
etc.)
G
I
S
Real time
meteorological data
(Precipt,Temp,Eva
poration etc.
Model
Products
(FFG, FFT
etc.)
Operational Works Verification
93rd AMS Annual Meeting, Austin Texas 6-10 January 2013
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Data
Soil
Source: Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock
Vegetation
Source: Ministry of Forestry and Water Works
30 years of historical meteorological data • Precipt,
• Temperature,
• Radiation,
• Sunshine,
• Evaporation,
• Soil moisture,
• Winds etc.
In additions, Topography,
Rivers, Dams, Lakes, Stream
flow data were provided.
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Calibration
19 Meteorological and Stream flow stations where floods occurred
Stream flow std.
Met. Std.
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Sub-basins
Büyük Menderes Basin
Eastern Black Sea Basin
6.900 and 2.900 sub-basins were created
for the participating countries and Turkey,
respectively.
Source: HRC
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Flash Flood Guidance Model Concept
Precipitation
Quality Control
and Merge(QC)
(FFG) Guidance
Snow Model
(SNOW 17)
Soil Moisture
Model
(SAC-SMA)
Runoff
Threshold
Temp
(T)
Topograp
hic data
Flash flood
modeling
• Satellite
Precipt.
•Surface Obs
•RADAR
Potential
evaporation
(Et)
93rd AMS Annual Meeting, Austin Texas 6-10 January 2013
Source: HRC
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Sat.Precipt Precipt.
Obs.
Merged Precipt Frac.Snow
Cov.
Soil
moisture
FFG IFFT PFFT ALADIN
Model
FMAP FFFT
FFG: Bankfull precipitation amount
FFT: Axces bankfull precipitation
Surface Obs.
Products
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• Flash flood warnings issued 6 hours before the flash floods
occurred on 7 January 2012 in the Southern Aegean Sea Region
and Mediterranean Region
Model Products: FFFT
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SWE /MELT
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BSME-FFG Bulletins/ArcGIS WEB Application
• FFG Bulletins are prepared by adding more GIS layers and
dispatched by e-mail to Minister, Undersecretary of Ministry, Director
Generals of State Hydraulic Works (DSI) and other relevant institutions.
• We are working with ESRI representative to produce ArcGIS WEB
applications to put more GIS layers automatically and easy access to forecasters
and users.
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Verification of Bulletins
Observation
Y N
Bull
etin
(2
1 M
ay-1
2
Dec
. 2012)
Y 31 18 49
N 8 (DSI) 8
39 18 57
93rd AMS Annual Meeting, Austin Texas 6-10 January 2013
Hit Rate: 0.79
Threat Score:0.54
False Alarm Ratio:0.37
Source: FEVK observations, DSI records, and press
For all events that had fatalities, warnings were issued.
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Meetings/Workshops
93rd AMS Annual Meeting, Austin Texas 6-10 January 2013
Regional workshop on snow accumulation and
melt in Southeast Europe (SEE) and Black Sea
and Middle East (BSME),Ankara, 26-29 March
2012.
International training course on flash flood
forecasting concept , Ankara,12-16 September
2011.
Because FFG is a Worldwide project, we propose to hold annual/biannual FFG
user conference to bring together scientists and users.
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RADAR Data
• Doppler Capability;
• Dual Polarimetric (Ankara Radar);
• Single Polarizasyon (Istanbul,
Zonguldak, Balikesir);
• Klystrone;
• Beam Width (0.7 deg, 1deg Ankara
radar);
• Frequency 5625 ± 25 MHz;
• Pulse Width (µs) 0.5–3 µs;
• Peak Power (Kw) 250 kW;
• Antenna Diameter 7 meters, 4.2
meters (Ankara radar);
• Signal Processor: SIGMET;
• Product Software: IRIS, RAINBOW.
93rd AMS Annual Meeting, Austin Texas 6-10 January 2013
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Future Activities: Southeast European FFG
There will be a planning
meeting in Turkey on 22-24
January 2013 for
implementation of an FFG
system for Southeast
European region modeled
after the BSMEFFG system
implementation.
93rd AMS Annual Meeting, Austin Texas 6-10 January 2013
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We would like to thank to all HRC staff and
Dr. Sezin Tokar of OFDA
93rd AMS Annual Meeting, Austin Texas 6-10 January 2013
Thanks a lot for your attention…