Download - Brandforsk infodagar 14
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Risk and Vulnerability Analysis – Applied in Crisis Management
Kurt PetersenProfessorLUCRAM
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Contents
Situation in SwedenInternational crisesRisk and Vulnerability AnalysisFRIVA – Research ProgrammeFindings
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Kurt Petersen
Lund University – Professor, Risk Analysis and ManagementPresident of LUCRAM, Lund University Centre for Risk Analysisand Management
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Lund University
Founded 1666
41 000 students
2 500 ph.d. students
5 500 employees
581 professors
8 faculties
5 160 MSEK turnover
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Lund Technical University13 Civ ing programs
7000 students
19 Institutions
75 thematic areas
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Master programmes• Copenhagen University – Master of Disaster Management (2008)• Civil Aviation School, LTH – Making Progess in Systems Safety
Master in societal aspects of crisis management
Fire Safety Engineering (since 1986)
Civil engineer in Risk Management (since 2001)
External courses (Räddningsverket, Luftfartsstyrelsen, Kammarkollegiet)
Ph.D. courses (examples):– Complex Adaptive Systems och Crisis Management– Accident management and crisis response
Education in Risk Management
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LUCRAM
Lund University Centre for Risk Analysis and Management Network at Lunds UniversityCoordination of research on risk managementContact point for external activities
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Situation in Sweden
New legislation on extreme eventsSwedish Emergency Management AgencyImplementation national, regional and localResearch
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New legislation
Risk and Vulnerability analysisCapability/Ability AssessmentTraining and Exercises
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International disasters
Terrorism, New York, London, MadridFlooding, Central Europe, Asia, SwedenEarthquakes, South Europe, AsiaForest fires, South EuropeWind storms, Europe, Sweden
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International disasters
Accidents at sea, Estonia, Herold of Free EnterpriseAccidents at land, Bhopal, SevesoDiseases, pandemi, bird flu, SARS, MCD
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Risk Approach
Risk = f (E, F, Q)E = events, hazardsF = frequency, likelihoodQ = consequence
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Vulnerability Approach
Risk given a specific event, situation or conditionsCapability/Ability
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FRIVA – a research programme
Risk and Vulnerability AnalysisMarch 2004 until March 2010Financed by the Swedish Emergency Management AgencyResearch Capacity Establishment8 doctoral projects
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FRIVA Subprojects
DP2: Risk and vulnerability assessmentmethods for analyses of criticalinterdependent infrastructuresDP3: Crisis management: preparedness, response and recoveryDP4: Crisis management and social vulnerabilityDP5: Proactive crisis management and safety culture
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FRIVA Subprojects
DP6: Regional vulnerability analysisDP7: Risk and vulnerability analysis of large scale infrastructures – electricpower and drinking water supplyDP8: Risk and vulnerability analysis of large scale infrastructures – tele and IT systemsDP9: Statistical analysis and simulation of extreme events
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FRIVA II
Risk and vulnerability analysis of complex socio-technical systemsCrisis management from the perspective of the user or the victimCritical infrastructures in crises
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Some Findings
MethodsPractical exercises at communitylevelProcess rather than plan
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Findings
Scenario based methodsSystem modelling based analyticalmethods
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Findings
Broad scopeBroad participationImplementation processes
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Emergency Response System
Risk and vulnerabilityERS plan Function for dissemination of ERS within organisationFunction for dissemination of ERS between organisationsFunction for continuous learning
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Emergency Response Systems
Utilise emergent behaviourUtilise adaptability