Download - BRAVO Results of CMAQ-MADRID
BRAVO Results of CMAQ-MADRID
Betty Pun, Christian Seigneur & Shiang-Yuh Wu
AER, San Ramon
Naresh Kumar
EPRI, Palo Alto
10 October 2002
CMAQ Modeling Domain
CMAQ Simulations
• Two episodes
– 5-15 October 1999
– 10-25 August 1999
• Simulations
– Tracers: completed
– Base PM simulations: completed, revised August simulation in progress
– Emission sensitivity simulations: in progress
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Simulated Values (12 km) Simulated Values (4 km)Observations (6-hr) Observations (12-hr)Observations (24-hr)
October Episode, 4-km and 12-km Simulations, Time Series
Sulfate (g/m3) at Big Bend
October Episode, 4-km and 12 km Simulations, Regression Analysis
y = 0.3872x + 2.1778
R2 = 0.6851
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Sulfate (g/m3) at Big Bend
y = 0.1015x + 2.1709
R2 = 0.1091
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4-km simulation 12-km simulation
y = 0.7185x + 2.8018
R2 = 0.143
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0 4 8 12 16 20Observations
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October Episode, 12-km SimulationRegression Analysis
Sulfate (g/m3), 39 Sites
Chemical Composition at Big Bend
Observed
sulfate55.2%
ammonium15.6%
nitrate0.9%
EC1.2%
OC11.9%
others15.2%
Simulated
sulfate53.9%
OC19.5%
others11.5%
EC1.0%
nitrate0.0%
ammonium14.2%
Sulfate on 11 & 12 October
PM2.5 on 11 & 12 October
O3 on 11 & 12 October
August Episode, 4-km SimulationTime Series
Sulfate (g/m3) at Big Bend
Oct 17 18 19 20 21 22 230
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Simulated Values Observations (8-hr)Observations (12-hr) Observations (24-hr)
August Episode, 4-km SimulationRegression Analysis
Sulfate (g/m3) at Big Bend
y = -0.0476x + 7.4337
R2 = 0.004
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0 4 8 12Observations
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CMAQ Performance
• First performance evaluation for a regional PM model with a comprehensive database (daily speciated data with good spatial coverage)
• Performance for October PM simulation is satisfactory, at least for BBNP
• Performance for August PM simulation is not satisfactory; sensitivity to boundary conditions is being investigated using REMSAD results to provide better temporal resolution
Emission Sensitivity Simulations
• 100% reduction in SOx emissions from
– Mexico
– Texas
– Other states
• 50% reduction in NOx, VOC and CO emissions from
– Mexico
– Texas
– Other states
CMAQ Schedule
• Tracer simulation results: Analysis completed in October
• Base PM simulations: August simulation revised by late November, performance evaluation drafted by end of November
• SOx emission sensitivity simulations for October episode completed by late November
• SOx emission sensitivity simulations for August episode completed by mid-January (revised simulation)
• NOx/VOC/CO emission sensitivity simulations completed by January (October episode) and February (August episode)