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Brexit and the future of Europe
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Brexit and the future of EU
• Brief recall of the situation• Why Britain is leaving the EU• Lessons from the negotiations• Brexit outcomes• Future of the EU
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SituationWithdrawal Agreement
• Money• Citizens Rights• Ireland
Political Declaration• Future relations
European Summit• 10 April
Brexit day • 12 April (with no agreement)• 22 May (with agreement)
European Parliament elections • 23 – 26 May• British participation ?
Approved by UK PM and 27 Member StatesRejected by British Parliament 3 times
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Three explanations for Brexit
1.British insularity and ambiguity about Europe
2.Leadership failures
3.Breakdown of British political system
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British insularity and ambiguity about Europe
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Grievances(real and perceived)
• Drift towards ever closer union (federalism)• Loss of control of borders• Fear of immigration• UK budget contribution• Wasteful farm supports (CAP)• EU – blamed for ills of globalization
• Precarious employment• Low wages• Income inequality
Economic and identity issues reinforce each other
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British never fully adjusted to EU
Dislike of compromise and confrontational style
European Parliament= Compromise
British Parliament=Confrontation
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Through gritted teeth on this occasion we are going to have to
listen carefully to what the Labour frontbench has to say
Andrea LeadsomLeader of the House of
Commons
7 April 2019
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Imperial nostalgia
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But insularity and imperial nostalgia did not make Brexit
inevitable
Britain has engaged fully with the EU for more than 4 decades
Many core aspects of today’s EU were“Made in Britain”
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Made in Britain?
• The Single Market• CFSP/CSDP• Regional Development Policy• Development Assistance
• ACP Convention• Fisheries Policy• Accountability and transparency
• “Kinnock” reforms
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Leadership failures• David Cameron’s disastrous decision
• Theresa May’s bungled negotiations
• Jeremy Corbyn’s ambiguities
-NC-ND
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Breakdown in British political system
• Political parties sharply divided• Parliament marginalised• Weakening of traditional “transmission belts”• Divides
• England-Wales/Scotland-Northern Ireland• Urban/rural• Young/old• Somewhere/anywhere (David Goodhart)
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Populism with British characteristics
• EU blamed for • Ills of globalization• Immigration
• Rejection of elites, experts and authorities • English nationalism• Off-shore dreams• Rejection of “cosmopolitan” sophistication• Sensational Eurosceptic press
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“Enemies of the people”
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• Influx of a million Poles • The euro zone crisis • 2015 migration crisis
Brexit sentiment exacerbated by events
Events, dear boy, events
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Six lessons from Brexit referendum and negotiations
1.Beware of referendums2.EU-bashing doesn’t pay3.Don’t throw red meat to populists4.Take parliament into your confidence5.Know your negotiating partner6.Be flexible for win-win result
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What now?
Y-SA
DealNo Deal
Short extensionLong extension“Flextension”Revocation
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Outcomes?
Withdrawal• The PM’s deal approved• Leaving EU with no deal• Revoking article 50 and cancelling Brexit• Another referendum• An election
Future• The PM's deal plus a customs union• The PM's deal plus a customs union and single market
(“Common Market 2.0”)• A Canada-style free trade agreement• Security and defense partnership
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12 April 2019 (?)
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Three scenarios for EU’s future after Brexit
1. Relaunch
2. Disintegration
3. Integration pause
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So what awaits Europe?
This? Or this?