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Peter Maarten Westerhout
Hong Gie Ong
Course: Network Architectures and Business Models
ET4034, Prof. Dr. Ir. N.H.G. Baken
February 22nd 2013
How to create value and control risks
when introducing new products & services
based on upcoming
communication technologies;
All in order to improve the Quality of Life!
Bringing to Life !
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300 AD
2013 AD
the POWER of
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is sexy? is sexy !
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• Electrical Engineering (1994 - 2002)• Internship in Beijing, China: Microsoft Research • Master Thesis in Singapore: Center for Wireless Communication
2003 Product Manager
2008 Business Strategy
2012 Manager Wholesale Cloud Services
Peter Maarten Westerhout Hong Gie Ong
2002 Security Support
2004 Security Engineer
2011 Security Architect
Peter Maarten Westerhout Hong Gie Ong
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Product or Service
• Technology assessment• Prototyping• Engineering• Technological Innovation
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the Technical portfolio does not stand alone, but
depends highly on the Commercial and Operational
portfolio for success of the total Portfolio
Commercial Portfolio
TechnicalPortfolio
Operational Portfolio
Portfolio Model:
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• Product Development• Marketing & Sales• Forecasting
Commercial Portfolio
T
C
Product or Service
TechnicalPortfolio
Operational Portfolio
Portfolio Model:
the Technical portfolio does not stand alone, but
depends highly on the Commercial and Operational
portfolio for success of the total Portfolio
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Commercial Portfolio
Operational Portfolio
T
O
C
• Installation, Service & Maintainance
• Network Management• Provisioning, capacity
managementProduct or Service
TechnicalPortfolio
Portfolio Model:
the Technical portfolio does not stand alone, but
depends highly on the Commercial and Operational
portfolio for success of the total Portfolio
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M
Manage the game
Commercial
T
O
C
Product or Service
Technical
Operational
Portfolio Model:
Manage the game: Bringing Portfolio to Life
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Commercial
M
T
O
C
Product or Service
Technical
Operational
Bringing to Life
Manage the game
Bringing Technology
to Life
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Pu
sh
Pu
ll
M
Life … C
Tech … T Technical
Manage
Commercial
Bringing to Life
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Pu
sh
Pu
ll
M
Life … C
Tech … T Technical
Manage
Commercial
Bringing to Life
… Innovation
… Adoption
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… Innovation
… Adoption
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, EnvironmentalLife …
+Value
Creation
-Risk
Control
C
M
Product or Service
Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming TechnologiesTech … T
Bringing to Life
Bri
ng
ing
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LTE
NFC
VoIP
WiFi
CLOUDGPS
… Innovation
… Adoption
IMPACT of on daily life
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1983 2013… Innovation
… Adoption
smaller, integrated , with cool looks
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… Innovation
… Adoption
IMPACT of in a minute
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… Innovation
… Adoption
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, EnvironmentalLife …
+Value
Creation
-Risk
Control
C
M
Product or Service
Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming TechnologiesTech … T Choose UpcomingTechnology
Define New Service
Argue who will Pay for the product or service
2
Predict Value Creation
3
Identify Risks & discuss Controls
4
5
Assignment
1
Bringing to Life
Assignment
B
ring
ing
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… Innovation
… Adoption
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, EnvironmentalLife … C
M
Product or Service
Pu
sh
Tech … T Choose UpcomingTechnology
Define New Service
Argue who will Pay for the product or service
2
Predict Value Creation
3
Identify Risks & discuss Controls
4
5
Assignment
1
+Value
Creation
-Risk
Control
Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming Technologies
Bringing to Life
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… Innovation
… Adoption
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, EnvironmentalLife … C
M
Product or Service
Pu
sh
Tech … T Choose UpcomingTechnology
Define New Service
Argue who will Pay for the product or service
2
Predict Value Creation
3
Identify Risks & discuss Controls
4
5
Assignment
1
+Value
Creation
-Risk
Control
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Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming Technologies
Upcoming Technologies Bringing to Life
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i. Developments of ICT Building Blocks and their ‘Iron Laws’
ii. Predicting Technological Maturity (Hype Cycle)
Upcoming Technologies
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The building blocks of ICT Networks
A. Computing power > More MIPS!
B. Storage capacity > More GBytes!
C. Bandwidth > More Mbits/s!
Upcoming Technologies
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In 1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore saw the future. His prediction, now popularly known as Moore's Law, states that the number of transistors on a chip doubles about every two years.
http://www.intel.com/technology/mooreslaw/index.htm
Moore's Law Means More Performance. Processing power, measured in millions of instructions per second (MIPS), has steadily risen because of increased transistor counts.
The ‘original’ Moore’s law.
Upcoming Technologies
A. Computing power: More MIPS!
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Upcoming Technologies
A. Computing power: More MIPS!
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B. More Storage Capacity: More GBytes!
Upcoming Technologies
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B. More Storage Capacity: More GBytes!
Upcoming Technologies
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C. More Bandwidth: More Mbits/s!
Development of user trafic in Fixed and Mobile
Upcoming Technologies
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Typically doubling times are under tree years
DT (years)
A. Processingpower
B. Storagecapacity
C. Bandwidth
1 2 2.50
Upcoming Technologies
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Technological developments make products smaller, faster and better
http://www.intel.com/technology/mooreslaw/index.htm
Upcoming Technologies
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Total INTERNET TRAFFIC GROWTH
Traffic growth depends on the increase in the:
Number of users
X
Used bandwidth
x
Time online
Upcoming Technologies
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The steady growth of Internet traffic Amsterdam Internet Exchange
Source: AMS-IX (Amsterdam Internet Exchange)
2004: 40 G2005: 80 G2006: 150 G
2012: 900 Gbps
Upcoming Technologies
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i. Developments of ICT Building Blocks and their ‘Iron Laws’
ii. Predicting Technological Maturity (Hype Cycle)
Upcoming Technologies
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Upcoming Technologies Recycling speed of technology
increases
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Gartner Hype Cycle: Emerging Technologies
How it works, and the year 2002
Upcoming Technologies
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Which Emerging Technology Hypes Now?
[BlackBoard]
Upcoming Technologies
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Which Emerging Technology Hypes 2012? Upcoming
Technologies
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/gartnergroup/files/2012/09/2012Emerging-Technologies-Graphic4.gif
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Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
-Risk
Control
C
M
Product or Service
+Value
Creation
Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming TechnologiesT
Bringing to Life
Choose UpcomingTechnology
1
Assignment
High Impact on daily Life ICT abides Iron Laws Hype Cycle predicts
technology maturity
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Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
-Risk
Control
C
+Value
Creation
Bringing to Life
Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming Technologies
M
Product or Service
T Choose UpcomingTechnology
Define New Service2
1
Assignment
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Bringing to Life
+
Product or Service
Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming Technologies
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Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, EnvironmentalC
Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming TechnologiesT
Bringing to Life
Product or Service
-Risk
Control
Choose UpcomingTechnology
Define New Service2
3
1
Assignment
M
+Value
Creation
+Value
Creation
3
Be creative Be practicalPredict Value Creation
3
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A. Bridge one of the 5 digital divides
B. Apply one of the 5 Value Models
C. Use one of the 5 Value Patterns
+Value
Creation Bringing to Life
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Digital Divide: Geographically
Interactive visualisations of traffic flows by Stephen Eick and colleagues.(source: Stephen Eick, Bell Labs / Visual Insights, <http://www.visualinsights.com>)1
Social and Economic Impact+Value
Creation
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Digital Divide: 1) Geographically > 3rd World
Internet Telephony
Social and Economic Impact+Value
Creation
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Digital Divide: 2) Geographically > NETHERLANDS!!
population density Netherlands
Social and Economic Impact+Value
Creation
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Digital Divide: 3) Demographically
IPhone-hacker of 13 years reportsAMSTERDAM - The hacking of the 'foreign' iPhone that in the Netherlands seems to be able to use a true sport. Meanwhile sign up a 13-year old boy on the Internet in no time the hip mobile ready for use, log Bright.nl lifestyle.
ANP
Prime Minister and the mystery of the computer mouse AMSTERDAM - The prime minister Wim Kok has no clue how to use a mouse. He is educated by kids from elementary school who explain the whereabouts of computing.
Social and Economic Impact+Value
Creation
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Digital Divide: 4) Economically
Social and Economic Impact+Value
Creation
< 20 €
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Digital Divide: 5) Socially
Business life will have to adopt Employee 2.0
‘Millennials'.‘Golden oldies'.
Nieuwe Werken
Social and Economic Impact+Value
Creation
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A. Bridge one of the 5 digital divides
B. Apply one of the 5 Value Models
C. Use one of the 5 Value Patterns
+Value
Creation
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1927 1956
1968
1989
1983
2008
2004
20??
B1. Not innovation speed, but adoption speed determines future success
+Value
Creation
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48 / 62Source: http://www.acuity-mi.com/images/TAL.jpg
+Value
Creation
B1. Focus on Specific target group & define early Adopters
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B1. Cumulative adoption
Adoption Curve
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
100%
Early Adopters
Innovators
Early Majority
Late Majority
Laggards
+Value
Creation
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B1. Consumption spreads faster today+
Value Creation
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B2. Disruptive vs. Sustaining innovation
Main article: disruptive technology
Hard disks
Flash memory
Optical camera’s
Digicam
+Value
Creation
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B3. Network Value > Network Effect
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_lawdoc
Metcalfe’s Law:
~ n²
Odlyzko’s revision
+Value
Creation
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B3. Impact Wireless Connected Networking-effect
http://www.intel.com/technology/mooreslaw/index.htm
+Value
Creation
Internet of things
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B4. The Longtail: Technology dependant
Scarcity
Abundance
25 december 2006
DRIVERS:
1. Production2. Distribution3. Filtering
+Value
Creation
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B5. Substitution Value in other Industries due to Digital Developments:
+Value
Creation
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A. Bridge one of the 5 digital divides
B. Apply one of 5 Value Models
C. Follow one of 5 Value Patterns
+Value
Creation
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C1) Look abroad, follow the success+
Value Creation
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C.2 Make use of other Moving trends+
Value Creation
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C.2 Make use of other Moving trends
http://lcolumbus.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/smartphone-forecast.jpg
+Value
Creation
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C.2 Make use of other Moving trends
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
GSM GPRS UMTS HSDPA HSPA HSPA-Evolved LTE
Bandwidth developments in mobile wireless sytems seem exponentieel
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bandbreedte(Mbps)
fiber wireless
+Value
Creation
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C3. REMIX Technologies CES - Samsung's Smart Window
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=m5rlTrdF5Cs
+Value
Creation
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C4. Use the Interdependencies and similarities of between Sectors
• Eco-Systems & Transsectoral Value
+Value
Creation
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Sci-Fi
Reality
Star Wars ©
Volumetric 3-D Display
C5) Follow the Movies: It will become Reality (1)+
Value Creation
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C5) Follow the Movies: It will become Reality (2)+
Value Creation
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M
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Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
-Risk
Control
C
Product or Service
T
+Value
Creation
Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming Technologies
Bringing to Life
Define New Service2
Predict Value Creation
3
Choose UpcomingTechnology
1
Assignment
Close the Digital divide Make use of Value Models Look around and remix
from Value Patterns
3
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Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, EnvironmentalC
Product or Service
T
+Value
Creation
Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming Technologies
M
-Risk
Control
Bringing to Life
Define New Service2
Predict Value Creation
3
Choose UpcomingTechnology
1
Assignment
Identify Risks & discuss Controls
4
4
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Identifying & Controlling Potential Risks
Potential risks that need to be controlled for a successful adoption of products or services based on upcoming infocomm technologies
-Risk
Control
-Risk
ControlEnsuring a successful tech adoption
Hong Gie Ong
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Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
Product or Service
+Value
Creation
Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming Technologies
M
-Risk
Control
Identify Risks from the 5 layered Risk-model
Evaluate and apply suitable Controls
Bringing to Life
4
Assignment
Define New Service2
Predict Value Creation
3
Choose UpcomingTechnology
1
Assignment
Identify Risks & discuss Controls
4
C
T
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Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, Environmental
Successful Deployment
Economical, Societal, EnvironmentalC
Product or Service
+Value
Creation
Upcoming TechnologiesUpcoming TechnologiesT
-Risk
Control
Bringing to Life
M
Define New Service2
Predict Value Creation
3
Choose UpcomingTechnology
1
Assignment
Argue who will Pay for the product or service
Identify Risks & discuss Controls
4
5 Life …
Tech …
Bri
ngin
g
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score
Describe an idea for a business opportunity based
on a new or upcoming communication technology
Choose UpcomingTechnology
Define New Service
Define who will Pay for the product or service
2
Predict Value Creation3
Discuss Risk Control4
5
1 11
1. Choose a communication technology and describe it shortly2. Discuss where it is in the Gartner Hype Cycle and why ..?
Bringing to Life
Tech-to-Life Assignment
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score
Choose UpcomingTechnology
Define New Service
Define who will Pay for the product or service
2
Predict Value Creation3
Discuss Risk Control4
5
1
4. Who is the specific target group for use of product/service? And can the product and/or service bridge a gap in the Digital Divide ?
5. Discuss how the service adds Value to these Users, relating to at least two Theoretical models (i.e. networking effect, long tail, etc. ..)
6. Discuss Value creation related to other commercial developments, or through remixing with other technologies or sectoral developments
11
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1. Choose a communication technology and describe it shortly2. Discuss where it is in the Gartner Hype Cycle and why ..?
7. Discuss one generic risk and possible control on level 1, 2 or 3
8. Discuss one specific risk and possible control on level 4 or 5
9. Discuss which quality of life pilar (Economy, Society, Environment) is most prone to the risks as identified above
10. Who will pay for the product / service? (i.e. advertiser, subscriber, the distributor, the user, Free or Freemium)
3. Describe a “new” product/service based on this technology
Bringing to Life
Tech-to-Life Assignment
Describe an idea for a business opportunity based
on a new or upcoming communication technology
10
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Tech-to-Life Assignment
72
Assignment process work in couples of max three persons (2 x 5 hours) report size = max 2-3 pages A4 including illustrations Keep it short and clear finalize assignment before March 22nd and email your report to
[email protected] deadline together with other ET4-034 assignments
• feedback on your results via email• evaluated assignments handed over to Prof. Baken
Scores will be based on theoretical insight, originality and clarity of report
Keep it Simple & Good luck !
Bringing to Life
Describe an idea for a business opportunity based
on a new or upcoming communication technology
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Communication Technology has major impact on Life and is Sexy!
It’s about Creating Value, Controling Risk & Life Adoption!
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Peter Maarten Westerhout
Hong Gie Ong
Course: Network Architectures and Business Models
ET4034, Prof. Dr. Ir. N.H.G. Baken
How to create value and control risks
when introducing new products & services
based on upcoming
communication technologies;
All in order to improve the Quality of Life!
Bringing to Life
We are looking forward
to some great
tech-to-life assignments !
We are looking forward
to some great
tech-to-life assignments !