Now PredictingHit or Bust

BUILD THE PERFECT MOVIE

Release

runtime

$73,215,120$72,054,810$72,034,770$68,625,022

How can you predict which movies will be a hit or a bust?

$17.5

$20

$22.5

$25

$27.5

$30

Based on average gross profit, movies should be released in winter seasons such as January, or December. Movies released atthe beginning of summer (June), and movies released in the beginning of fall (October) also produce large gross profits. Therefore,

release date cannot be the only metric used to determine if a movie will be a hit of a bust. However, it is important to note the fluctuation during profitable months. For example, December and January produce higher profit because they are movie award months. There is also a decrease in gross profits in February as a result of holidays and the Superbowl, and then again in September when kids go

back to school

The average runtime for a movie is 103 minutes. Movies with above average runtimes (AAR) produce higher profits than movieswith below average runtimes (BAR). The gross profit of movies with AAR is constantly increasing in fall and winter months. These are

key months for distributors to market their films for the upcoming award shows. The gross profit of movies with BAR is constantly increasing in warmer spring and summer months. Consumers are less likely to sit through longer movies while on vacation and more likely to sit

through shorter movies.

Average Gross Profit per Season

Winter: December 21- March 20Spring: March 20-June 21

Fall: September 22-December 21Summer: June 21-September 22

1234

January

February

March

April May June

July

August

Septem

ber

October

November

December

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Low budget movies produced by top performing production companies make more gross profit in months with low average profits such as February1, and September2. If a production company is one of the top three movie producers, it can release lower budget movies

during these times because those movies are not competing with higher budget movies. These movies will also produce a larger gross profitthan other movies because of their familiarity in the industry.

Movies with Below AverageRuntime

Movies with Above AverageRuntime

Average Runtime

Average movie budget = $53,685,501Below average movie budget < $53,685,501Above average movie budget > $53,685,501

Average Gross Profit per Month

Aver

age

Gros

s Pr

ofit

in M

illio

ns

103

PRODUCTION

$52,901,551GPG-13 $45,846,507

$43,650,378PG$14,089,190R

Rating

GENRE

proof

122,074,601

June$

November

88,837,705$

May

81,097,438$

$800

Though “G” rated movies are produced the second least, they are the most profitable due to the fact that there is the least amountof competition for that rating as seen in the pie chart depicting the amount of releases per rating. Alternatively, “R” rated movies produce the

least gross profit compared to other ratings. Unlike “G” rated movies, “R” rated movies eliminate the entire market ages 17 and below.

Movie Ratings Based on Gross Profit

Movie Ratings Based on Number Released

January

February

March

April May June

July

August

Septem

ber

October

November

December

Animation movies produce the highest gross profit out of all genres. Animations producethe most profit in June than any other month. Animation movies are frequently rated G and intended for younger audiences

who get out of school at this time. This type of movies is most often made with an average runtime which is suitable for children.

Monster’s University (MU), a “G” rated animation, was released with the highest profitable rating and genre. One of the best months to release a movie with above average runtime is in June. Additionally, animations produce higher gross profits

when the movie has an above average runtime. Lastly, the second highest profitable month for Disney is June. MU followed the recommended metrics that produced highest gross profit outcomes and earned an above average gross profit.

Average gross profit is $14,907,664.

Building Monster’s University

Release Date

Rating Genre

Runtime Production

NBC UniversalEmily ErdmannFox School of BusinessTuf42441

SourcesNBCU Data Set Provided

http://www.boxofficemojo.comhttp://www.imdb.com

https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-best-months-to-release-a-movie-for-theatrical-viewing

$57,647,836$44,849,072$34,502,240

AnimationAdventure

Action

12 4

3 5

JUNE

G

profit = $268,492,764

Animation

104 MIN Disney

Months with Highest Gross Profits per Genre

Average Gross Profit Overall

Average Runtimeper Genre

109117114

PG-13

R

G

PG

R

Aver

age

Gros

s Pr

ofit

in M

illio

ns

Aver

age

Gros

s Pr

ofit

in M

illio

ns

January

February

March

April MayJu

neJu

ly

August

Septem

ber

October

November

December

$0

$200

$400

$600

AverageLow Budget 20th Century FoxHigh Budget 20th Century FoxLow Budget SonyHigh Budget SonyLow Budget DisneyHigh Budget Disney

January

February

March

April May June

July

August

Septem

ber

October

November

December

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