RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 01 AUG 2018
Dabur India BUY
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters
Out of the park Dabur reported an all-round solid performance with 20% consolidated revenue growth. Domestic revenues grew by 24% aided by 21% domestic volume growth, ahead of our (14/12% val/vol.) and street’s expectations. International business (30% mix) grew by 11% (exp. of 14%). EBITDA/APAT was up by 25/19% (exp. 20/18%) despite aggressive ASP Growth of 33%. Dabur’s strong domestic volume growth was led by market share gains, pickup in rural consumption (~300bps faster than urban market), aggressive ASP spend and favorable base. Oral care, Hair oil, Chywanprash gained share by 60/60/200bps. Dabur has been our top pick to play the revival in rural consumption and it is playing out well. Govt.’s impetus towards accelerating economy (mainly rural) would further push consumption. Dabur’s ambitious plans are to leverage this recovery with aggressive product launches (naturals space), higher investment in core portfolio (Shampoo, Skincare, Beverages etc) to attain scalability and distribution ramp up. We expect Dabur to deliver revenue/EBITDA/APAT of 15/20/22% CAGR over FY18-FY21E. With improving visibility in the domestic business, we upgrade our
target P/E multiple to 38x (35x earlier) on Jun-20EPS to arrive at a TP of Rs 461 (Rs 423 earlier). Maintain BUY. Highlights of the quarter Domestic volume up by 21%: The growth was across
categories of Dabur. Hair oil/Shampoo/Skin Care/Health supplements/Foods /Oral care registered stellar growth of 19/30/27/27/27/17%.
International recovery gradual: Int. revenues (31% of total) grew at slow 10.5% cc. Namaste grew at low single digit and impacted the overall growth. While, GCC, Egypt and Hobi posted strong 17%, 31% and 37% cc growth. We expect gradual pickup in the int. sales.
Robust 25% growth in EBITDA: Consolidated GM was up by 69bps due to lower promotional costs and favourable product mix. ASP up by 33% YoY (-24% in base). Oplev expanded EBITDAM by 130bps to 18.6% (exp. 100bps). EBITDA up by 25% vs. -11% in 1QFY18 and 20% exp. Other income down by 9% (exp. +8%). APAT was up by 19% to Rs 3.30bn (exp. Rs 3.26bn).
Near-term: Dabur is one of our top-picks to play the rural recovery (~45% rev. from rural). With improving consumer sentiments, we believe it will lead to healthy earnings growth in the ensuing quarters too.
Financial Summary (Consolidated) (Rsmn) Q1FY19 Q1FY18 YoY (%) Q4FY18 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Sales 20,807 17,901 16.2 20,329 2.3 76,136 77,219 89,587 102,230 116,529 EBITDA 3,861 3,089 25.0 4,852 (20.4) 15,089 16,174 19,786 23,650 27,721 APAT 3,292 2,761 19.2 3,962 (16.9) 12,769 13,663 16,860 20,429 24,247 Diluted EPS (Rs) 1.86 1.57 18.9 2.25 (17.1) 7.25 7.76 9.57 11.60 13.76 P/E (x) 57.9 54.1 43.9 36.2 30.5 EV / EBITDA (x) 47.8 44.2 36.2 30.0 25.2 RoIC 47.1 46.9 53.0 59.4 66.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
INDUSTRY FMCG
CMP (as on 31 Jul 2018) Rs 420
Target Price Rs 461
Nifty 11,357
Sensex 37,607
KEY STOCK DATA
Bloomberg DABUR IN
No. of Shares (mn) 1,766
MCap (Rsbn)/(US$ mn) 745/10,871
6m avg traded value (Rsmn) 752
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
52 Week high / low Rs 429 / 293
3M 6M 12M
Absolute (%) 15.6 22.1 41.6
Relative (%) 8.7 17.4 26.1
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
Promoters 67.88
FIs & Local MFs 8.04
FPIs 17.66
Public & Others 6.42 Source : BSE
Naveen Trivedi [email protected] +91-22-6171-7324
Siddhant Chhabria [email protected] +91-22-6171-7330
DABUR INDIA : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
Page | 2
Quarterly Financials Year to March (Rsmn) Q1FY19 Q1FY18 YoY (%) Q4FY18 QoQ (%) FY18 FY17 YoY (%) Net Revenue 20,807 17,901 16.2 20,329 2.3 77,483 77,014 0.6 Material Expenses 10,486 9,145 14.7 10,024 4.6 38,464 38,432 0.1 Employee Expenses 2,241 2,035 10.1 1,807 24.0 7,928 7,896 0.4 Advertisement and Publicity 1,990 1,500 32.7 1,256 58.4 6,067 6,461 (6.1) Other Operating Expenses 2,229 2,131 4.6 2,390 (6.7) 8,850 9,135 (3.1) EBITDA 3,861 3,089 25.0 4,852 (20.4) 16,174 15,089 7.2 Depreciation 427 391 9.4 426 0.3 1,622 1,429 13.5 EBIT 3,434 2,699 27.2 4,426 (22.4) 14,553 13,661 6.5 Other Income 737 813 (9.4) 732 0.6 3,052 2,984 2.3 Interest Cost 149 133 12.0 132 12.4 531 540 (1.8) PBT before exceptional 4,022 3,379 19.0 5,026 (20.0) 17,074 16,104 6.0 Exceptional - (145) na - na (146) - na PBT 4,024 3,238 24.3 5,024 (19.9) 16,931 16,107 5.1 Tax 724 589 22.9 1,052 (31.2) 3,354 3,303 1.5 PAT before minority interest 3,300 2,649 24.6 3,972 (16.9) 13,577 12,803 6.0 Minority Interest 7.8 7.2 8.3 9.8 (20.4) 33.5 33.7 (0.6) PAT 3,292 2,642 24.6 3,962 (16.9) 13,544 12,769 6.1 APAT 3,292 2,761 19.2 3,962 (16.9) 13,663 12,766 7.0 EPS 1.9 1.6 18.9 2.2 (17.1) 7.8 7.2 7.0 Margin (% of sales) Q1FY19 Q1FY18 YoY (bps) Q4FY18 QoQ (bps) FY18 FY17 YoY (bps) Material Expenses 50.4 51.1 (69) 49.3 109 49.6 49.9 (26) Employee Expenses 10.8 11.4 (60) 8.9 188 10.2 10.3 (2) ASP Expenses 9.6 8.4 118 6.2 338 7.8 8.4 (56) Other Operating Expenses 10.7 11.9 (119) 11.8 (104) 11.4 11.9 (44) EBITDA 18.6 17.3 130 23.9 (531) 20.9 19.6 128 Tax Rate 18.0 18.2 (20) 20.9 (296) 19.8 20.5 (70) APAT Margin 15.8 15.4 40 19.5 (367) 17.6 16.6 106 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Consolidated constant currency revenue growth, adjusted for GST, was at 19.6% Domestic business grew by 24% (exp. of 13.4%) supported by all time high volume growth of 21% International biz grew by 10.5% on constant currency basis owing to favourable base (-2% in 1QFY18) and improving consumption dynamics GM was up by 69bps on account of lower promotional costs and favourable product mix Despite 32% growth in A&P (-24% in 1QFY18), EBITDA margins expanded by 130bps (exp. of 101bps)
DABUR INDIA : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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Quarterly Segmental Year to March (Rsmn) Q1FY19 Q1FY18 YoY (%) Q4FY18 QoQ (%) FY18 FY17 YoY (%) Consumer Care Business 16,561 14,251 16.2 16,774 (1.3) 64,141 47,780 34.2 Foods 3,635 3,108 17.0 2,934 23.9 10,977 8,162 34.5 Retails 304 278 9.1 279 8.9 1,143 925 23.5 Others 230 208 10.5 248 (7.6) 970 843 15.2 Unallocated other operating revenue 78 55 40.4 94 (16.8) 252 Total 20,807 17,900 16.2 20,329 2.3 77,483 57,710 34.3 Segmental EBIT Consumer Care Business 3,789 3,202 18.3 4,287 (11.6) 15,961 11,594 37.7 Foods 519 325 59.8 554 (6.2) 1,581 1,088 45.4 Retails 13 5 na 4 197.6 31 (12) na Others 20 (15) (233.6) 17 14.0 28 35 (20.4) Total 4,341 3,517 23.4 4,862 (10.7) 17,602 12,705 38.5 Less: (a) Interest Cost & Bank Charges 149 133 12.0 132 12.4 531 423 25.3 (b) Other Un-allocable Expenses 170 6 na (296) (157.4) (2) 491 na PBT 4,022 3,378 19.0 5,026 (20.0) 17,074 11,790 44.8 Capital Employed Consumer Care Business 22,529 21,753 3.6 22,444 0.4 22,529 21,753 3.6 Foods 3,231 4,801 (32.7) 3,344 (3.4) 3,231 4,801 (32.7) Retails 296 276 7.5 288 3.0 296 276 7.5 Others 287 355 (19.2) 216 32.8 287 355 (19.2) Total 26,343 27,185 (3.1) 26,292 0.2 26,343 27,526 (4.3) Unallocable Capital Employed 34,416 24,283 41.7 31,038 10.9 34,416 24,283 41.7 Total Capital Employed 60,759 51,469 18.1 57,331 6.0 60,759 51,469 18.1 Consumer Care Business 16,561 14,251 16.2 16,774 (1.3) 64,141 47,780 34.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research EBIT Margin Year to March (Rsmn) Q1FY19 Q1FY18 YoY (bps) Q4FY18 QoQ (bps) FY18 FY17 YoY (bps) Consumer Care Business 22.9 22.5 41 25.6 (268) 24.9 24.3 62 Foods 14.3 10.5 383 18.9 (458) 14.4 13.3 108 Retails 4.1 1.7 243 1.5 261 2.7 (1.3) 406 Others 8.5 (7.0) 1,553 6.9 161 2.9 4.2 (129) Total 20.9 19.6 121 23.9 (306) 22.7 22.0 70 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Segmental growth is based on reported numbers. Foods margins revived owing to favourable base (-483bps in 1QFY18), freight benefits (GST) and benign input costs
DABUR INDIA : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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Revenue Contribution (1QFY19) Revenue Contribution (FY18)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Revenue growth Domestic Value and Volume Growth Trajectory
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Note: International revenue growth is on constant currency basis
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Domestic biz (67.8% in 1QFY19 vs. 65.9% in 1QFY18) continued to take share from international biz Rural wholesale grew by 24% YoY vs. urban wholesale growing by 8%. Pre-GST urban wholesale used to feed in rural pockets. For the FMCG sector rural is now growing ~300bps faster than urban (~500bps historical levels) vs. ~150-200bps in FY18 Domestic business is witnessing consistent recovery driven by volume growth. We expect double digit value growth in the medium term
Domestic67.8
International30.3
Others1.9
(%)
Domestic68.5
International27.9
Others3.6
(%)
2
(7)
1
(5)
10
18
10
24
(2)
0
(5)(2)
4 5
17
11
(10)
(4)
2
8
14
20
26
2QFY
17
3QFY
17
4QFY
17
1QFY
18
2QFY
18
3QFY
18
4QFY
18
1QFY
19
Domestic International(%)
1 2
(7)
1
(5)
10
18
10
24
4 5
(5)
2
(4)
7
13
8
21
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1QFY
17
2QFY
17
3QFY
17
4QFY
17
1QFY
18
2QFY
18
3QFY
18
4QFY
18
1QFY
19
Value growth Volume growth (%)
DABUR INDIA : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
Page | 5
Domestic Revenue Mix (1QFY19) Domestic Revenue Mix (FY18)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Remarkable performance by Dabur’s oral care segment during a challenging period (expected to clock Rs 10.5bn in FY19 vs. ~Rs 8bn in FY17) Hair care revenue mix is constant YoY Food increased from 21.9% in Q1 FY18 to 22.3% in Q1 FY19 Dabur Honey has grown by 33/24/42% YoY during 3QFY18/4QFY18/1QFY19 which signals declining competitive intensity from Patanjali
Hair Care23
Health Supplement
12
Foods22
Oral Care17
OTC & Ethicals
7
Home Care7
Skin Care5
Digestives6
(%)
Hair Care21
Health Supplement
17
Foods18
Oral Care17
OTC & Ethicals
9
Home Care7
Skin Care5
Digestives6
(%)
DABUR INDIA : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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Domestic Category Growth (YoY)
Categories 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 Wt.
Avg. FY17
Wt. Avg. FY18
Hair Care 10% 1% -5% -20% -4% -11% 2% 17% 9% 19% -6% 4% Oral Care 18% 12% 0% -5% 9% 2% 23% 23% 11% 17% 4% 15% - Toothpaste 20% 13% 4% 2% 9% 10% 26% 26% 14% 17% 7% 19% Foods 12% 4% 15% 52% 10% -8% 12% 0% 2% 27% 18% 1% Health Supplements -6% 0% -6% -14% 5% -7% 3% 20% 14% 28% -5% 10% Home Care 19% 2% 20% 5% -7% 6% 10% 36% 0% 17% 6% 14% OTC & Ethicals 7% -10% -9% -11% -4% -7% 6% 9% 9% 13% -8% 5% Digestives 7% -16% -16% -10% 5% 4% 12% 19% 7% 22% -8% 10% Skin Care 0% -2% 7% -11% 0% 4% 16% 15% 9% 27% -2% 11% Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
International Revenue Growth (CC basis) 1QFY19 Geography-wise Growth (CC basis)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Broad based growth during 1QFY19 Continued market share gain in Toothpaste is heartening Dabur Red toothpaste is now a Rs 5bn brand Oral care, Home care, Skin care and Digestives reported double digit value growth in FY18 in a turbulent environment Encouraging to see recovery in Hair care, Foods and OTC & Ethicals after a disappointing FY18 Favorable base for most categories would play key role in the coming quarters Most of the geographies witnessed a turnaround in 1QFY19 with favourable base, stabilizing currency and improving consumer confidence index
6.0
(2.3)
-
(4.5)(2.2)
3.9 5.0
16.8
11.0
-8.0
0.0
8.0
16.0
24.0
1QFY
17
2QFY
17
3QFY
17
4QFY
17
1QFY
18
2QFY
18
3QFY
18
4QFY
18
1QFY
19
(%)
3117
4054
1
37
-30
0
30
60
90
Egyp
t
GCC
Paki
stan
Saud
ai A
rabi
a
Nam
aste
Hob
by
(%)
DABUR INDIA : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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Assumptions Particulars FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Domestic Gr. (%) 1.0 5.2 15.3 13.3 13.8 Hair Care Gr. (%) (6.8) 4.2 13.7 11.6 13.0 Oral Care Gr. (%) 7.5 16.9 14.0 13.8 14.0 Health Supplements Gr. (%) (2.7) 10.4 13.6 14.0 14.0 OTC & Ethicals Gr. (%) (9.6) 5.2 9.7 13.3 14.0 Digestive Gr. (%) (11.4) 10.4 12.2 12.0 12.5 Home Care Gr. (%) 4.6 13.8 16.3 12.7 14.0 Skin Care Gr. (%) 5.3 11.0 15.2 13.5 14.0 Foods Gr. (%) 12.2 1.5 17.1 13.7 14.5 International Gr. (%) (5.0) (6.3) 15.0 14.0 14.0 Consolidated Revenue Gr. (%) (3.0) 1.4 16.0 14.1 14.0 Gross Margin (%) 50.7 50.5 50.9 51.6 51.8 ASP (% of sales) 8.5 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.1 Distribution (% of sales) 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 Employee (% of sales) 10.4 10.3 9.8 9.6 9.4 Other Expenses (% of sales) 9.3 9.0 8.6 8.6 8.5 EBITDA Margin (%) 19.8 20.9 22.1 23.1 23.8 Tax Rate (%) 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Change in Estimate
FY19E FY20E FY21E
New Old Change New Old Change New Old Change Net Revenue 89,587 88,582 1.1% 102,230 100,560 1.7% 116,529 115,375 1.0% EBITDA 19,786 19,194 3.1% 23,650 23,073 2.5% 27,721 27,447 1.0% APAT 16,860 16,543 1.9% 20,429 19,964 2.3% 24,247 24,153 0.4% EPS 9.6 9.4 1.9% 11.6 11.3 2.3% 13.8 13.7 0.4% Source: HDFC sec Inst Research
Mgt. Guidance Double digit growth in international business in FY19. Namaste should report positive growth after 2-3 years Internal target of 8-10% volume growth and low double digit value growth Gross margins are sustainable despite rising inflation Domestic EBITDA margins should stabilise at these levels, blended EBITDA margin would be marginally higher Tax rate would continue to be at MAT. Higher profits from international can result in lower tax rate in FY19 Currently distribution reach is at 1.05mn and can rise to 1.2mn Capex of Rs 2.5bn in FY19
DABUR INDIA : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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Peer Set Comparison
Company MCap
(Rs bn)
CMP (Rs) Reco. TP
(Rs)
EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Core RoCE (%)
FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E
HUL 3,745 1,734 NEU 1,709 29.4 35.5 42.7 58.9 48.8 40.6 41.0 34.5 29.1 71.4 73.8 74.4 ITC 3,656 301 BUY 367 10.1 11.1 12.3 29.9 27.1 24.5 18.9 16.8 15.0 37.9 40.1 43.0 GCPL 899 1,320 NR 1,160 26.7 31.3 37.3 49.3 42.2 35.4 37.0 31.5 26.5 20.5 23.2 27.3 Britannia 781 6,505 NEU 6,307 103.2 132.4 158.6 63.0 49.1 41.0 42.3 33.5 28.1 45.7 52.4 56.0 Dabur 745 420 BUY 461 9.6 11.6 13.8 43.9 36.2 30.5 36.2 30.0 25.2 53.0 59.4 66.2 Marico 475 368 BUY 379 8.1 10.4 12.1 45.5 35.4 30.4 33.1 26.1 22.6 45.6 55.7 61.4 Colgate 306 1,125 NEU 1,185 28.7 32.8 37.8 39.1 34.3 29.8 23.9 20.4 17.7 69.6 81.9 96.1 Emami 259 568 BUY 627 14.0 16.6 19.9 40.6 34.2 28.5 28.9 24.3 20.5 28.0 35.0 44.9 Jub. Food 184 1,396 BUY 1,562 25.8 31.8 39.2 54.0 43.9 35.6 28.8 23.9 19.9 56.6 71.9 89.2 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research
DABUR INDIA : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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Income Statement (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Revenues 76,136 77,219 89,587 102,230 116,529 Growth (%) (3.0) 1.4 16.0 14.1 14.0 Material Expenses 37,554 38,199 43,960 49,490 56,119 Employee Expense 7,896 7,928 8,770 9,864 10,949 ASP Expense 6,461 6,067 7,282 8,229 9,422 Distribution Expense 2,039 1,914 2,042 2,228 2,423 Other Expenses 7,096 6,936 7,748 8,770 9,895 EBITDA 15,089 16,174 19,786 23,650 27,721 EBITDA Growth (%) (0.6) 7.2 22.3 19.5 17.2 EBITDA Margin (%) 19.8 20.9 22.1 23.1 23.8 Depreciation 1,429 1,622 1,747 1,928 2,080 EBIT 13,661 14,552 18,039 21,721 25,641 Other Income (Including EO Items) 2,984 3,052 3,664 4,330 5,626
Interest 540 531 484 354 224 PBT 16,104 17,073 21,218 25,697 31,043 Total Tax 3,303 3,354 4,350 5,268 6,796 Adjusted PAT 12,769 13,663 16,860 20,429 24,247 APAT Growth (%) 2.0 7.0 23.4 21.2 18.7 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 7.2 7.8 9.6 11.6 13.8 EPS Growth (%) 1.8 7.0 23.4 21.2 18.7
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Balance Sheet (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital - Equity 1,762 1,762 1,762 1,762 1,762 Reserves 46,712 55,304 58,892 70,826 84,455 Total Shareholders Funds 48,474 57,065 60,653 72,588 86,217 Minority Interest 248 265 258 258 258 Long Term Debt 4,741 3,686 2,686 1,686 686 Short Term Debt 5,090 5,766 4,766 3,766 2,766 Total Debt 9,831 9,452 7,452 5,452 3,452 Net Deferred Taxes 1,080 1,091 1,091 1,091 1,091 Other Non-current Liabilities &Provns 534 565 622 684 752
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 60,167 68,438 70,075 80,072 91,769 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 19,584 20,281 20,691 21,763 22,182 CWIP 1,011 522 876 888 901 Other Non Current Assets 581 490 954 1,049 1,154 Total Non-current Assets 21,177 21,293 22,521 23,700 24,238 Inventories 11,067 12,562 14,403 16,183 18,270 Debtors 6,504 7,061 8,192 9,348 10,655 Other Current Assets 3,125 4,988 5,334 5,706 6,106 Cash & Equivalents 35,450 41,112 40,607 48,681 58,891 Total Current Assets 56,146 65,723 68,535 79,918 93,922 Creditors 15,852 17,094 19,390 21,847 24,583 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 1,304 1,484 1,592 1,700 1,808 Total Current Liabilities 17,156 18,578 20,982 23,546 26,391 Net Current Assets 38,990 47,145 47,553 56,371 67,531 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 60,167 68,438 70,075 80,072 91,769
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
DABUR INDIA : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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Cash Flow Statement (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Reported PBT 16,107 16,931 21,218 25,697 31,043 Non-operating & EO Items (3,224) (2,262) (8) - - Interest Expenses 307 424 484 354 224 Depreciation 1,429 1,622 1,747 1,928 2,080 Working Capital Change 872 (2,575) (1,333) (789) (999) Tax Paid (3,221) (3,249) (4,350) (5,268) (6,796) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 12,269 10,890 17,759 21,923 25,552 Capex (4,858) (2,003) (2,500) (3,000) (2,500) Free Cash Flow (FCF) 7,411 8,887 15,259 18,923 23,052 Investments (5,111) (5,837) (2,500) (2,500) (2,500) Non-operating Income 1,900 2,437 - - - INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (8,069) (5,402) (5,000) (5,500) (5,000) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 1,682 (545) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) Interest Expenses (450) (428) (484) (354) (224) FCFE 2,969 6,461 15,243 18,778 22,777 Share Capital Issuance 149 - - (0) - Dividend (4,770) (4,770) (13,273) (8,494) (10,618) Others - - - - - FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (3,390) (5,744) (15,757) (10,849) (12,842) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 811 (256) (2,998) 5,574 7,710 EO Items, Others 1,251 269 (8) - (0) Closing Cash & Equivalents 3,048 3,061 55 5,629 13,339
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Key Ratios FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM 50.7 50.5 50.9 51.6 51.8 EBITDA Margin 19.8 20.9 22.1 23.1 23.8 EBIT Margin 17.9 18.8 20.1 21.2 22.0 APAT Margin 16.8 17.7 18.8 20.0 20.8 RoE 28.4 25.9 28.6 30.7 30.5 RoIC (or Core RoCE) 47.1 46.9 53.0 59.4 66.2 RoCE 24.2 22.4 25.4 28.1 28.9 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 Inventory (days) 53.1 59.4 58.7 57.8 57.2 Debtors (days) 31.2 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 Other Current Assets (days) 15.0 23.6 21.7 20.4 19.1 Payables (days) 76.0 80.8 79.0 78.0 77.0 Other Current Liab&Provns (days) 6.3 7.0 6.5 6.1 5.7 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 17.0 28.5 28.3 27.5 27.1 Net D/E (x) -0.53 -0.55 -0.55 -0.60 -0.64 Interest Coverage (x) 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS 7.2 7.8 9.6 11.6 13.8 CEPS 8.1 8.7 10.6 12.7 14.9 Dividend 2.3 6.3 4.0 5.0 6.0 Book Value 27.5 32.4 34.4 41.2 48.9 VALUATION P/E (x) 57.9 54.1 43.9 36.2 30.5 P/BV (x) 15.3 13.0 12.2 10.2 8.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 47.8 44.2 36.2 30.0 25.2 EV/Revenues (x) 9.5 9.3 8.0 7.0 6.0 OCF/EV (%) 1.7 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.7 FCF/EV (%) 1.0 1.2 2.1 2.7 3.3 FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 0.4 0.9 2.1 2.5 3.1 Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.4
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
DABUR INDIA : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
Date CMP Reco Target 5-Aug-17 307 BUY 340 25-Sep-17 305 BUY 352 10-Oct-17 316 BUY 352 1-Nov-17 333 BUY 380
13-Nov-17 341 BUY 380 27-Dec-17 353 BUY 406 12-Jan-18 359 BUY 401 1-Feb-18 356 BUY 401
28-Feb-18 340 BUY 405 11-Apr-18 338 BUY 399 2-May-18 371 BUY 410 9-Jul-18 380 BUY 423
1-Aug-18 420 BUY 461
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jul-1
7
Aug-
17
Sep-
17
Oct
-17
Nov-
17
Dec-
17
Jan-
18
Feb-
18
Mar
-18
Apr-
18
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Dabur TP
DABUR INDIA : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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