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CZECH BLOSSOM CASE STUDYFLIS Blossom meeting 17 –18 June 2013, Copenhagen
Klára Vočadlová
CENIA, czech environmental information agency
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LONG-TERM THINKING AND GOVERNANCE LANDSCAPE - HISTORY
Before 1989 - 'future thinking' connected with socialist centrally planning, environmental foresights did not exist, absence of legal and institutional framework in the environmental protection
After 1989 (Velvet Revolution) – during 1990s first environment related strategic documents, 1995 first State Environmental Policy
2004 – accession to the EU, adoption and implementation of EU directives
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LONG-TERM THINKING AND GOVERNANCE LANDSCAPE – PRESENT
Conception and strategic documents – environmental or including environmental components, use a forward-looking approach, mostly without scenarios
Future scenarios and long-term foresight studies are not in common use in policymaking
Forecasts and projections, quantitative scenarios x qualitative and context scenarios are lacking
Direct impact on environmental policymaking - primary intended for decision-making, mainly participation of experts, high level of political and ideological involvement
Foresight agenda is not institutionalised, not organised in a particular programme at national level, no formal requirements or methodology
Temporary ad-hoc groups or committees leading the process
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Central approach Level: governmental, national Role: coordination, setting a main strategy, cooperation Studies: main cross-cutting strategic documents (Strategic
Framework for Sustainable Development ) direct relevance to the EU legislation and strategic documents
Sectoral approach Level: Ministries, departmental, national Role: coordination, cooperation, production Studies: departmental strategies integrating environmental
issues (State Environmental Policy, State Energy Policy, Potential for reduction of air pollutant emissions in the year 2020)
RESPONSIBILITIES
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Regional and local approach Level: local authorities and self-governing territorial units
(regions, municipalities) Role: coordination, cooperation Studies: short-time strategic documents with regional or local
extent (Strategic Plan for Prague)
Research and nongovernmental approach Level: all research organisations, universities, NGOs, private companies Role:
scientific support for strategic planning cooperation with governmental institutions on preparation of
strategic documents external examiners political and ideological opponents
RESPONSIBILITIES
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INSTITUTIONS INVOLVED
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STAKEHOLDERS AND EXTERNAL RELATIONSHIPS
Public involvement: Through Strategic Environmental Assessment Through NGOs and public initiatives
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BLOSSOM CASE STUDY – PROCESS OF SELECTION
Find the study key organisations
Criteria Horizon – time span 5–10 years and more Coverage – CZ Topic – economy, demography, environment Availability – public
3 studies 2020, 2040 Climate change, air pollution, energetics CZ – national level
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BLOSSOM CASE STUDY – SELECTED STUDIES – TEMPLATE 2
National Program to Abate the Climate Change Impact in the Czech Republic – 2020 (2030), Ministry of the Environment, three GHGs emissions scenarios, exploratory, quantitative
Potential for Reduction of Air Pollutant Emissions in the Czech Republic in the year 2020 – Ministry of the Environment, scenarios of five main air pollutants (GAINS model), normative, quantitative
State Energy Policy of the Czech Republic – 2040, Ministry of Trade and Industry, only one preferred scenario of development and structure of basic energy indicators, exploratory and normative, quantitative
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BARRIERS & SUCCESS FACTORS
Barriers Forward-looking issues are not institutionalised Any formal requirement to provide long term analysis Weak linkage between policy making and foresight
(scenarios) – short-term and mid-term policy making Forward-looking studies - tool for strategic planning and
sectoral environmental policy, scenarios are not in common use
Lack of political support and staff continuity (departmental changes)
Success EU as a driver Existence of main sectoral strategies Good situation concerning climate change and air pollution
scenarios Expert base, research
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BLOSSOM: USEFULNESS, CHALLENGES, SUGGESTIONS FOR WAYS FORWARD
Find gaps and weaknesses of future thinking in the country Institutional support and budget allocation is lacking Weak historical experiences General mistrust of long-term scenarios – uncertainty x
certainty
Recognise new problems and challenges
Input for strategic discussion
Support for current policy
Comparison with other countries – inspiration, lesson learn, deadlocks
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Find a way how to…: Integrate scenarios in common decision making and
strategic thinking Transform a short-term orientation into a long-term Integrate future organisations – networking, stimulate open
discussion, create a common foresight platform Connect scientific and politic rationality
Create pressure on policy makers Popularise forward-looking approach
BLOSSOM: USEFULNESS, CHALLENGES, SUGGESTIONS FOR WAYS FORWARD