CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
California Activities Addressing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
“Climate Policy After Marrakech:
Towards Global Participation”
East-West CenterHonolulu, HawaiiSeptember 4, 2003
Terry SurlesCalifornia Energy Commission
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
California in Context
Size of the economy Gross state product in 2000 was about $1.35
trillion Population
Population grew from about 30 million in 1990 to about 34.5 million in 20002
History of encouraging economic growth, while maintaining an aggressive record for environmental protection
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
GDP (2000)
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
U.S.
Japan
Germany
U.K.
CALIFORNIA
France
China
Italy
Canada
Mexico
Spain
GDP (2001) [billions of current U.S. dollars]
0010,100
GDP (2001)
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Our Principal Reservoir - The Sierra Snow Pack - Is Shrinking
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Water Year (October 1 - September 30)
Perc
ent o
f Wat
er Y
ear
Run
off
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
Sacramento River Runoff (1906-2001)April to July as a Percent of Total Runoff
Source: California Protection Agency, Environmental Protection Indicators for California, 2001
Warmer Winters Have:
Reduced snow pack Earlier snow melt Decreased Spring
runoff by 10% Major effects on water
supply, Cal Fed and Delta
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on California: Agriculture
Currently first in the nation in agricultural income major user of water; 43% of state total This sector may be severely affected by climate
change but more studies are needed
water availability: annual and seasonal exotic species
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
8.00
8.20
8.40
8.60
8.80
9.00
9.20
9.40
9.60
9.80
10.00
1850 1865 1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000
Year
MS
L (F
eet)
Sea Level Is Rising Along California’s Coast
San Francisco Yearly Mean Sea Level
(1855-2000)
Source: California Protection Agency, Environmental Protection Indicators for California, 2001
CA has already seen a 7” rise in 150 years
IPCC projects 4-35” sea level rise by 2100
Concerns over levee stability and salt water intrusion
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
GHG EmissionIn-State CO2 Emissions by Sector (1999)
Motor Gasoline37%
Residual Fuel1%
Oher Transp. Fuels1%
Distillate Fuel8%
Jet Fuel12%
Commercial 4%Industrial
13%
Electric Power 16%
Transportation58%
Residential 9%
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
California 265 TWh
US 3,720 TWh
Natural GasCoal
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Hydro
ImportsNG = 15%
Hydro = 28%Coal = 60%
43 %
13 %
9 %
26 %
51 %
17.8 %
21 %
6 %
Renewables 9 %
OilRenewables
3 %2 %
California vs US Electricity Supply2001
Geoth 57 %Bio 26 %Wind 14 %Solar 4 %
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
US 1997 Carbon Emissions:1500 MtC
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
1990-1999 Relative Gross Greenhouse Gas Emissions
0.940.960.981.001.021.041.061.081.101.121.14
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Em
iss
ion
s n
orm
aliz
ed
to
19
90
va
lue
s
California United States
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Existing State Policies/Programs/Initiatives
Creation of a voluntary early action program (California Action Registry)
New carbon dioxide emission standard for cars projected to start in 2009
Renewable Energy Program Efficiency Standards and Titles, e.g. Title 24 for
buildings Public Interest Energy Research Program
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Goals of the California Climate Action Registry
Adopt protocols for reporting and certification of GHG emission reductions
Support credible, nationwide registry transparent and defensible results extensive participation
Influence global debate on registries Assist development of GHG accounting,
reporting and certification standards
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
California Vehicular Emissions Reduction Bill
Requires the California Air Resources Board to develop regulations that achieve the maximum feasible reduction of GHGs emitted by passenger vehicles and light trucks
The regulations will apply to the 2009 model years and thereafter
The bill provides automobile manufacturers with maximum flexibility
The bill offers numerous alternatives for GHG reductions
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Electricity Efficiency and Renewables
in California
Goals of California Energy Action Plan 2003 California kWh per capita is already flat compared to
U.S. climbing 2% per year New California goal is to reduce kWh per capita by 1%
per year Renewable Portfolio Standard: add 1% of renewables per
year Additional peak reduction of 1% per year by Demand
Response when power is expensive or reliability is a problem
In total, goals aim to reduce electricity growth, increase renewables, grow demand response
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
CaliforniaRenewable Portfolio Standard (2002)
Requires utilities to increase renewable electricity by at least 1% per year to 2017, until 20% of retail sales are produced from renewables
Directs utilities to enter into contracts with renewable energy generators for at least 10 years duration
Requires the California Energy Commission to certify and fund renewable energy resources
Tied to current Public Goods Charge Program successes in existing QFs (biomass) and residential (PV)
20%
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Year
Kilo
wat
t-h
ou
rs p
er
pe
rso
n
US
California
Per-Capita Electricity Consumption: Effect of California Energy Efficiency Programs
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) And Estimated Household Standby
Use v. Time
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Ave
rage
En
ergy
Use
per
Un
it S
old
(k
Wh
per
yea
r)
Refrigerator Use per Unit
1978 Cal Standard
1990 Federal Standard
1987 Cal Standard
1980 Cal Standard
1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal
Standard
Estimated Standby Power (per house)
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Electricity Generating Capacity for 150 Million Refrigerators + Freezers in the US
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
at 1974 efficiency at 2001 efficiency
GW
capacity savedcapacity needed
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Year
Ind
ex (
1972
= 1
00)
Effective Dates of National Standards
=
Effective Dates of State Standards
=
Refrigerators
Central A/C
Gas Furnaces
Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
International Energy Agency (IEA) and EIA (Energy Information Agency)
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
IEA data EIA data
- 2.7%Average = - 0.7%- 3.4%
Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the United States
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
(Sources: EIA and California Department of Finance)
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
Average = -1.0% -4.5% -3.9%
Annual Rate of Change in Energy/Gross State Product for California
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) and EIA (Energy/Market Exchange Rate)
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
IEA data EIA data
note: Russia not included until 1992 in IEA data and 1993 in EIA data
- 1.3% - 1.3%Average = - 0.7%
Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the World
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
California’s R&D Program for Improving Efficiency and
Developing Distributed Energy Resources
Carbon Management
Decarbonization CO2
Btu<CO2 atm
CO2 produced<Sequestration
BtuGSP<
Efficiency
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Berkeley Lamp Model partnership between
CEC/DOE/California utilities PIER was instrumental in moving
the technology into the marketplace via coordination with the Utility Emerging Technology Coordinating Council
Growing use in California and Hawaii
http://www.energy.ca.gov/pier/pr.html
Project is both a technical success and a customer success
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
PowerLight’s PowerGuard
PowerLight’s insulated 30 year roof system reduces building air
conditioning loads while it’s PV surface generates electricity during hot and
expensive peak summer hours
While California is known for its hot dry summers, that same solar resource provides a clean, safe and reliable way
to generate electricity
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
The Yolo County SuccessAccomplishments
Is opening the way for landfill gas electricity systems to be more widely used in California
• Accelerates gas production from over 30 years to less than 10 years, making landfill electricity more competitive
• Reduces volume of landfill which can extend landfill life by 20 percent
• Significantly reduces the chance for groundwater pollution from leachate release
Has become the leading bioreactor project within EPA’s XL Program and will strongly influence landfill regulations across the country
CEC’s Role Through the CEC’s R&D programs,
we’re bringing bioreactor technology from concept to reality
Control cell without bioreactor
Enhanced bioreactor cell
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Xonon Cool Combustion System - Catalytica Energy Systems, Inc.
Description: Gas turbine combustion system
that controls combustion temperature to prevent the formation of NOX
Benefits:
Lower NOX emissions without SCR
Allows deployment of smaller turbines for DG
Expandable to large, central station turbines
Use with Kawasaki turbine
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
California is Funding Some Carbon Sequestration Activities
Combustion
Indirect (Biological Solutions)
Direct (Engineered Solutions)
Capture, Separation*
Terrestrial* OceanFertilization
Geologic* Ocean
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Climate Change Research and Assessment Activities are Just Starting
Research center on regional climate change:
Focus will be physical sciences and regional modeling
Additional studies on ecological and economic impacts
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Our Current Portfolio is Being Focused on Regional Center Activities
Project Amount ($M)
Contractor/ collaborators
Assessment of impacts of GCC in CA
2.2 EPRI, CDF, CDFA, CDWR
GHG Emission Inventory 0.1 ICF, Transportation Division, Resources Agency, CALEPA
Indirect emissions, metrics, and case studies (three CA entities)
0.3 LBNL, Registry, Transportation Division
Carbon market opportunities in CA
0.3 Winrock/EPRI CDF/CDFA
Soil carbon sequestration 0.3 UC/Kearney CDFA
Climate Monitoring, Analyses, and Modeling/Regional Center
1.5 Scripps/UC San Diego, CDWR, NOAA, NSF
Integrated Economic Analyses/Regional Center
1.1 UC Berkeley, NOAA
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
New Projects are Designed to Address Climate Variability as it May Relate
to Climate Change
Creation of a climatic database for California (late 19th Century to the present)
Analyses of extreme events to determine trends and develop modeling approaches
Influence of ENSO and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on California’s climate
Tied to future regional modeling initiatives
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Carbon Sequestration in Terrestrial Ecosystems
Forestry related projects: Winrock, CA Department of Forestry
Agricultural Soils: Kearney Foundation, CA Department of Food & Agriculture
GIS type of analyses looking at broad scale state-wide opportunities for sequestration
They will include an estimation of costs and benefits (monetary and environmental)
Detailed analysis for one county (only for agricultural soils at this time)
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Western Regional Partnership Contains a Coherent Study Unit
Commonality in terrestrial sinks in WA, OR, and Northern CA
Significant CO2 source - over 11% of US anthropogenic emissions
Commonality and large potential capacity in geological sinks in CA, NV, and AZ
Significant potential for offsetting costs with EOR and EGR in California and Alaska North Slope
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
California Must Collaborate with Other Funding Agencies to Improve Chances for Success
020406080
100120
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
California
Idaho
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Texas
United States
Vermont
South Dakota
D.C. Massachusetts
Connecticut
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
- 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Emissions/GSP (metric tons CO2/thousand 1999 U.S. dollars)
Em
issi
on
s/C
apit
a (m
etri
c to
ns
CO
2/p
erso
n)
1999 Carbon Intensity from the Combustion of Fossil Fuels for California
and Selected States
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Carbon Intensities for California and Selected Countries- 1995
Greece
Australia
California
FranceSw eden
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Canada
United States
Italy
PortugalSpain
Denmark
Germany
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Emissions/GDP or GSP (metric tons CO2/thousand 1995 U.S. dollars)
Em
issi
on
s/C
apit
a (m
etri
c to
ns
CO
2/p
erso
n)
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
California Can Have a Voice in the On-Going Debate
Major emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) Excellent environmental track record
energy efficiency and renewables environmental laws
A stream of new policies and programs focused on GHG
An aggressive Public Goods Energy R&D Program for meeting the challenge
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn
Driving to a Sustainable Future:The “E”s are Linked
Environment Energy Economics Equity Education