CaliforniaTransportationElectrificationPolicy
Landscape,keyinitiatives,andcomparisontoGermany
5August2016
LeverstoReduceTransportationEmissions
2JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
Source: CPUC, http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=11287
BarrierstoAdoption– AViciousCycle
Stakeholderuncertaintyregardingtechnologyandvalue
Incrementalcostshigh•Vehicles•Infrastructure
Insufficientcharging
infrastructure
Limitedcustomerdemand
Limitedvehicle
availabilityandsales
3JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
*ThankstomyCPUCcolleagueNoelCrisostomoforsharingthisslidewithme!
HowCanPolicyStimulateaVirtuousCycle?
StakeholderconfidenceinEVtechnologyanditsvalue
Justifiedinvestments•Lowercosts•Clearerbusinesscase
Sufficientandwell-
integratedcharging
infrastructure
Customerdemand
Manyvehicle&chargingservice
options,moreadoption
4JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
*ThankstomyCPUCcolleagueNoelCrisostomoforsharingthisslidewithme!
Californian vs.GermanElectrification Landscape• Whataresimilaritiesanddifferencesbetweentheregions?
• Marketandregulatorystructure• Majorstakeholders• Infrastructureandgeography• Cultureandlifestyle
• Howmighttheseaspectsbereflectedinpolicy?
5JoannaGubman,VisitingFellow,SustainableSolutionsSupportedbytheAlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
6JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
Californian vs.GermanElectrification LandscapeGermany California
Number of vehicles 61.5MM /0.76 percapita 34MM /0.88percapita
Auto-relatedcompanies
VW,Daimler,BMW,Bosch,otherparts suppliers,DHL
Tesla,Uber, Lyft,Google,Apple,other tech (IT),aerospace
Carculture? Yes! Especially ICengines.Butless in cities.
Yes!Especially SUVs.And more long distances.
Innovationculture Incrementalimprovement,cautious investments,angsty
Big breakthroughs,newestgadgets,riskyVCinvestments
Governing parties Conservative +Labor Democraticsupermajority
Grid infrastructure Very built outand stable Some transmission-constrainedregions and congested circuits
CO2emissions fromtransportation
17%of totalemissionsNotincluded inETS
37%of totalemissionsIncluded inETS($12.73/ton)
Airquality issues? Yes,inurbanareas Yes,among the worst inthe US
Electricity market Liberalised/deregulated,nationwide pricing,no capacitymarket
Monopolies +CAgrid operator(except municipals),nodal prices,capacity contracts,TOUrates
ResidentialRates 0.295€/kWh average 0.177$/kWh average
7JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
Californian vs.GermanElectrification LandscapeGermany California
Number of vehicles 61.5MM /0.76 percapita 34MM /0.88percapita
Auto-relatedcompanies
VW,Daimler,BMW,Bosch,otherparts suppliers,DHL
Tesla,Uber, Lyft,Google,Apple,other tech (IT),aerospace
Carculture? Yes! Especially ICengines.Butless in cities.
Yes!Especially SUVs.And more long distances.
Innovationculture Incrementalimprovement,cautious investments,angsty
Big breakthroughs,newestgadgets,riskyVCinvestments
Governing parties Conservative +Labor Democraticsupermajority
Grid infrastructure Very built outand stable Some transmission-constrainedregions and congested circuits
CO2emissions fromtransportation
17%of totalemissionsNotincluded inETS
37%of totalemissionsIncluded inETS($12.73/ton)
Airquality issues? Yes,butonly inspecific areas Yes,widespread - worst inthe US
Electricity market Liberalised/deregulated,nationwide pricing,no capacitymarket
Monopolies +CAgrid operator(except municipals),nodal prices,capacity contracts,TOUrates
ResidentialRates 0.295€/kWh average 0.177$/kWh average
JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
Californian vs.GermanPolicy Targets/StandardsGermany California
2030electricity 50%+ renewable 50%+renewable (excluding rooftopsolarand largehydro)
EVsonthe road 1million by 2020(26know) 1.5million by 2025(224know)CO2reductions(relativeto 1990)
40% in2020,55%in2030Largely ineffective ETS
40% in2030ETSinthe process of being extended
Fleetstandards(grams CO2/km)
Cars,2021:95Vans, 2020:147
Cars: 107in2021;89in2025Trucks:167in2020;126in2025
Transportationfuel energy/emissions
10%reduction intotaltransportation energy by2020,relativeto 2005Negativeprogress to date
LowCarbonFuelStandardprogram:10%reduction (vs 2011) incarbonintensity of transportation fuels by2020
Airquality (NOx,ozone,particulatematter)
EUStandards: 120µg/m3
ozone,25µg/m3 PM2.5,200µg/m3 hourlyor40µg/m3
yearly NOx,others.Compliantexcepthotspots.
US Standard:75ppbO3,12µg/m3 PM2.5.SouthCoast:70% reduction inNOx by 2023,80%by 2031.Regional ozone and PM2.5deadlines range from 2021-2031.
8
Areweatthetippingpoint?
Drivers Barriers
Stressonthegrid?
Notenoughmodelsavailable
Lackofinfrastructure,rangeanxiety
Cost
Newmarketforutilities&generators
Airquality
Cultureoftechnologyandinnovation
CO2goalsandrenewablesintegration
9JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
CaliforniaPolicies – Governor‘s Office• ZEVMandate
• Infrastructurefor1millionZEVsby2020• 1.5millionZEVsontheroadby2025• ExecutiveOrderB-16-2012
• ZEVActionPlan – interagency coordination roadmap• Facilitateregularinteragencycoordination• GHGReduction ExecutiveOrders:40%by 2020,80%by2050
• Relativeto1990• S-3-05andB-30-15
• PetroleumExecutiveOrder:50%reductionin2030• Forcarsandtrucks• ExecutiveOrderB-32-15
10JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
CaliforniaPolicies– AirResourcesBoard(CARB)Policy Name Policy Type
ZEV(ZeroEmissionVehicles)Mandate Mandate/Standard
LowCarbonFuelStandard Mandate/Standard
AdvancedCleanTransitRegulation Mandate/Standard
SustainableCommunitiesStrategies (SB375) Mandate/Standard,RegionalPlanning
MobileSourceStrategy PolicyRoadmap
AB32ScopingPlan PolicyRoadmap
SustainableFreightPlan PolicyRoadmap
GoodsMovementEmissionReductionProgram IncentiveProgram
LowCarbonTransportationInvestmentsandAirQualityImprovementProgram:IncludesCleanVehicleRebate Project,Hybrid&ZETruck&BusVouchers,etc.
IncentivePrograms(including $6,500EVrebates)
PEVCollaborative (includesmultipleagencies) Public-PrivatePartnership
11JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
CaliforniaPolicies– EnergyCommission(CEC)Policy Name Policy Type
AlternativeandRenewableFuelandVehicleTechnologyProgram(ARFVTP)• Manufacturinggrants,regionalplanninggrants,
infrastructurefunding,RD&D• $100MM/yr,alltypesofalternativefuels
Research,Development,andDeploymentFunding(RD&DFunding),RegionalPlanning,RegionalFunding
ElectricProgramInvestmentCharge (EPIC) RD&DFunding
IntegratedEnergyPolicyReport(IEPR) - includestransportationenergyforecasting, landuseplanning
PolicyRoadmap,Scenarios
PortsEnergyCollaborative Public-Private Partnership
DepartmentofDefenseInitiative Cross-JurisdictionalPartnership
12JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
CAPolicies– PublicUtilitiesCommission(CPUC)• Regulatesinvestor-ownedutilities(monopolies):
• Electric,naturalgas,andwater• Telecommunicationsandvideofranchises• Railandpassengertransportation
• Mission:• Protectingconsumersandensuringtheprovisionofsafe,reliableutility
serviceandinfrastructure atreasonablerates,• withacommitmenttoenvironmentalenhancementandahealthy
Californiaeconomy
• Authoritytoapprove/mandate:• Infrastructureinvestments• Utilityrates• Utilitycustomerrebates• Sanctionsfornon-compliance
13JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
RegulatedUtilityChargingInfrastructurePilotsSouthernCalifornia Edison SanDiegoGas&Electric PacificGas&Electric
Program status Approvedandunderway Approvedandunderway PENDINGCPUCmaymodify/deny
Budget $22million $45million,plusO&M $160million,+O&M
Duration 1-2years 4-5 years 3years
Numberofstations/sites
1,500 stations150sites
3,500stations350sites
7,500Level2stations(750sites)100DCfastcharge
Station ownership Landowner(rebated) Utility Utility
Marketsegments • Multi-familydwellings• Workplaces andfleets• Destinations
• Multi-familydwellings• Workplaces
• Multi-family• Workplaces• Schools,other
Gridintegration TOURates,demandresponsecapability
Day-ahead hourlypricing:considercircuitconditionsandgenerationforecasts
TOURates
Disadvantagedcommunities
Freeparticipation10%+ofsites
Freeparticipation10%+ofsites
Freeparticipation15%+ofsites
14JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
LatestCPUCPoliciesDrivenbySB350(law)• Transportationelectricitycountsasaformofbasicutilityservice• Investmentcost-benefitconsiderationsshouldinclude:
• Betterrenewablesintegrationviaimprovedsystemutilization• Energyefficiencyimprovementsintransportation• Airpollutionreductions• GHG-emissionsreductions• Alternativefuelusageincreases• Economicbenefitsindisadvantagedcommunities
• TheCPUCisrequiredtosolicitapplicationsfromtheutilitiestosupport“widespreadtransportationelectrification”• Includesallmobilesources:vehicles,boats,trains,etc.• Applicationsmustbeeitherapproved,ormodifiedandapproved• Solicitationandguidancedocumentwillbeissuedverysoon
15JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
LatestCPUCPoliciesDrivenbySB350(law)• Transportationelectricitycountsasaformofbasicutilityservice• Investmentcost-benefitconsiderationsshouldinclude:
• Betterrenewablesintegrationviaimprovedsystemutilization• Energyefficiencyimprovementsintransportation• Airpollutionreductions• GHG-emissionsreductions• Alternativefuelusageincreases• Economicbenefitsindisadvantagedcommunities
• TheCPUCisrequiredtosolicitapplicationsfromtheutilitiestosupport“widespreadtransportationelectrification”• Includesallmobilesources:vehicles,boats,trains,etc.• Applicationsmustbeeitherapproved,ormodifiedandapproved• Solicitationandguidancedocumentwillbeissuedverysoon
16JoannaGubman,Visiting Fellow,Sustainable SolutionsSupported by the AlexandervonHumboldt-Stiftung/Foundation
Applicationguidancewillbeissuedverysoon,andtheapplicationsthemselveswilllikelybefiledjusta
fewmonthsthereafter,sostaytuned!