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Carrie Law — CEO & Director, Juwai.com
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Expectation?
• Chinese Overseas Real Estate Investment Trends
• Destinations & Property Types
• Key Factors
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Carrie LawCarrie Law
2 XX20
LINKEDIN: https://hk.linkedin.com/in/mediacarrielaw
CEO & DirectorJuwai.com
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Investment Trends
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2016 – GlobalCommercial + Residential
$101.4 billion
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The Size
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Top Destinations
Top Destinations 2016 2017
1 United States United States
2 Australia Australia
3 Canada Thailand
4 United Kingdom Canada
5 New Zealand United Kingdom
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The Heat
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Current Investment TrendsMedia:
Dow Jones’ Mansion Global (AU)
Juwai Estimates:Chinese invest
AUD6 billion in Australian residential real estate
each year
Facts:Chinese snap up to 20% of newly built apartments in
Australia
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Current Investment TrendsMedia:
South China Morning Post(CN)
Juwai’s Insights:Brooklyn’s median listing prices USD760 / sq ft vs.
Beijing City’s centre apartments is USD1430 / sq ft
Facts:Brooklyn now beats Queens
Chinese is the largest immigrant group in Brooklyn
Brooklyn’s Sunset Park neighbourhood is now the
largest China Town in New York
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Current Investment TrendsMedia:
The New Statesment(UK)
Juwai’s Insights:250% YoY enquiries surge
80% of Chinese buyers in Manchester are investors
53% Chinese buyers in London are for self-use
(double Manchester, 19%)
Facts:Manchester has a great
investment and economic story yet only a fraction of Chinese want to live there
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Current Investment Trends
Media: Better Dwelling (CA)
Juwai’s Insights:Toronto & Montreal property prices surge due to cheap &
easy credit. Not Chinese.
Sparked investment & upgrade boom among
Canadians
Canadian home prices will decline, not because of
foreign buyers but Canada’s Office of
Superintendent of Financial Institutions in Oct:
hold mortgage applicants to higher standards
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Current Investment TrendsMedia:
China Daily (SEA)
Juwai’s Insights:BNR appeals to investors to
choose residential property in TH, MY, CA, SG
Other countries’ yield less appealing as compared with
SEA
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The Size in 2017… 2018?
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Factors Affecting Demand
• Positive:• Belt & Road Initiative• Purchase and loan restrictions in many mainland cities• Low rental yield in major mainland cities (1%-2%)• Increasing number of HNW families
• 1.47 million “10-million RMB” families as of 1st Jan 2017, 9.7% YoY (Hurun)
• Negative:• Fluctuations in economy and political aspects – China, Global• China Regulatory Factors — Capital controls, etc.• Foreign investor restrictions imposed in many developed markets• Raising interest rates in many developed economies: US, Canada etc.
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Belt & Road Initiative:
• 6 Corridors & Maritime Silkroad
• Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
• Focus on Infrastructure– Railway, Highways– Communication– Energy– Education and Tourism
• $3 trillion trade volume 14-16
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View full article
“Rent growth can’t seem to catch up with price advances.”
“Year-on-year new home price growth in Xiamen plunged to 14.7 per cent in June from 38.8 per cent in January, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, which ranks it as the city most prone to a property bubble.”
“The yields in 13 cities slipped below 2 per cent, suggesting an accumulation of risk in the market.”
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Consumer Wealth
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Consumer Wealth
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It will take at least $1.5 trillion of Investment for China to move up to 25%
How BIG & FAR could China go in ODI?
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Thank you!
Add Carrie Law
Let’s WeChat
LINKEDIN: https://hk.linkedin.com/in/mediacarrielaw
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Fall of the titans
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Some relevant
statsChinese investment in U.S. homes:
2017: $31.7 billion2016: $27.3 billion2015: $28.6 billion
Source: National Association of Realtors
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How to get your money out of China
1. Pool it together2. Underground bank, HK insurance3. Use your overseas business4. Kids’ education5. Buy a Chinese developer’s project6. Other ways w/o money actually crossing
a border
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Debates going on…
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And, a personal story
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Globalization of Investment
--- Real Estate
Kenny Lam
Group President, Noah Holdings
April 4th, 2018
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Noah is the largest independent private wealthmanager in China serving ~200K HNWI clients
2
Distribution of Noah Branches
# of Noah
branches
1~4
5~9
10~19
20 or more
1,335
1,335
dedicated
relationship
managers
3.6%
3.6%
turnover
rate for top
relationship
managers in
2017
237
237
branches
across
China
79
79 cities
covering
top tier
cities and
key
provincial
capitals
Noah’s Average Transaction Value per Client
(RMB mm)
Number of Noah Registered Clients
~200k7.03
7.878.43
9.23
2014 2015 2016 2017
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Melbourne(2018)
Taipei(2013)Hong Kong
(2012)
New York(2017)
Vancouver(2018)
Silicon Valley
(2016)
Globalization is a core strategy for us
9
6
120
Years since
NYSE IPO
Overseas
Offices
Overseas
Employees
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Active Management+ Ecosystem Player
• More than 5 years experience in active
management
• Invested in over 125 projects and collaborated
with more than 40 top developers
• Accumulated investment over 85bn RMB
• Covering and monitoring over 70 real estate
related companies for 3 years
• Heavily invested in 5
• Have our own RE operational management team
We have a strong foothold in the real estate sector
Involved in the Upstream and Downstream Markets
Traditional RE Partners
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What changes
are taking
place among
Chinese
HNWIs?
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6
As a percentage of all HNWIs, first generation entrepreneurs has fallen sharply from 70% to 40%, whereas second generation and professionals have risen.
More Mature
From wealth creation to wealth preservation
Longer-term Considerations
More emphasis onestate planning
1
Broader Vision
From domestic to global allocation
Substantial changes in investment mood and behavior
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Investment
Philosophy
Emerging
Fields
Industry
Trends
International
Markets
2 Strong motivation to learn and gain knowledge
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Real Estate Direct Equity
Private Equity Funds
Credit
3 Allocation in a more diversified set of asset classes globally
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Estate
Planning
Family
Office
Insurance
Discretionary
Management
4 Strong demand for comprehensive financial solutions
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PE/VC
30-40%
Secondary Market
20-30%Real Estate
15-20%
Fixed Income
10-20%
Overseas Products
20-30%
Noah’s Asset Allocation Strategy 2018Global HNWI & Ultra HNWI Asset Allocation
2%10%
22%
46%
33%
15%15%
9%
28%20%
HNWI Ultra HNWI
Cash Alternatives
Fixed Income International Equities
Domestic Equities
Data Source: The Ultra High Net Worth Investor White Paper by KKR (May 2017) Data Source: 1H2018 Noah Investment Strategy Report
As a key alternative asset, Real Estate is preferred by HNWIs
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Noah clients’ primary motivation for purchasing overseas properties is investment
Source: Survey of Noah diamond clients conducted by Juwai at Noah annual gala in 2017
7%
8%
10%
22%
23%
30%Investment
Risk decentralization
Children overseas education
Settle down
Holiday/Leisure
High-yield from emerging markets
MOTIVATION FOR OVERSEAS PROPERTY INVESTMENT
TOTAL RESPONDENTS: 400
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North America is their top destination
• 82% are interested in purchasing
overseas property
• 52% are interested but in need of
services and support
• Tier 1 destinations are still in the
most demand (North America at
37%, Australia/NZ at 25%)
• Stable amount of interest in Tier 2
destinations (SEA, EUR, Asia, and
others)
37%
25%
9%
16%
9%
4%
NorthAmerica
ANZ SoutheastAsia
Europe Asia (HK,Japan)
Other
TOP DESTINATIONS
Source: Survey of Noah diamond clients conducted by Juwai at Noah annual gala in 2017
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2/3 of clients would pay 1-5mn RMB for an overseas property
Source: Survey of Noah diamond clients conducted by Juwai at Noah annual gala in 2017
EXPECTED PRICE RANGE
11%
32%
32%
14%
9%
2%Above 10 mn
7 -10 mn
5- 7mn
3 - 5mn
0.5 – 1mn
1 - 3mn
Rmb
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Besides investing in properties directly, investing
in REAL ESTATE FUNDS is another choice
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Gopher US Real Estate Fund Strategy
Roy Chen
Partner, Managing Director
• 16 years industry experience
• Solid investment track record
and broad network
Diversified
Regions
Value-add
Approach
Foreseeable
Exit
Strategy
Clear
Structure
Excellent
Professional
Team
3
2
6
5
1
4Transparent
Valuation
Adam Matmom
Director
• 7 years industry experience
• Specialized in project analysis,
due diligence and investment
structure design
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Thank you!