Download - CBRFC May 11 2011 Peak Flow Forecast Webinar
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CBRFCMay 11 2011
Peak Flow Forecast Webinar
Greg Smith
These slides: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php
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Outline
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cbrfc.1.2011.html
• Recent Weather• Current Snow States• Upcoming Weather• Peak Flow Forecasts
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Snow Melt Runoff is Here – peaks to occur in the next 1-6 weeks.
Most Active Areas as of Today May 11th
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov
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Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov
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Web Reference: http://water.weather.gov/precip
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Precipitation: Two day storm total May 8-9
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April 7April 20
April 27
Snow
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?scon=checked
May 10
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April 7 April 20
April 27 May 10
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72 sites showing highest value for May 10th (31% of SNOTEL Sites)
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Lower Elevations (~8000’ and below) Melt is underway
8000’
7500’
8800’
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High Elevation Sites (~9000’ +)Maintaining / Accumulating Snow
9640’
10500’
9960’
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Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow: Upper Green Basin (above Flaming Gorge)
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Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow:Colorado Mainstem (above Cameo)
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Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow:Gunnison Basin
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Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow:San Juan Basin
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Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow:Six Creeks in Salt Lake County
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Web Reference: http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov
Model generated Snow Maps:
Current compared to Apr 27 (last peak flow discussion)
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Web Reference: http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/centrockiesWeek.php#tabs
• This Week: Temperatures 5-10 degrees above average by the weekend.
• Next Week: Another storm system possible mid week. Cooler
Upcoming Weather:
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Forecast Precipitation
Web Reference: www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov & www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
• This Week: Dry. Colorado precipitation is from exiting storm.
• 6-14 day period suggests increased chance of precipitation
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What is a Peak Flow Forecast?• Snowmelt Mean Daily Maximum Flow (April-July) • Instantaneous Forecasts where relationships/data exist
• New Information (applicable to flooding concerns)• Mean Daily Peak – Instantaneous peak relationship washes out if heavy rain occurs during the peak.
• Probabilistic Forecasts Exceedence Probabilities -10%,25%,50%, 75%, 90%
• Issued (at least) monthly from March-June (this year weekly starting April 19)
• ~60 forecast points – some unregulated, some regulated• Updated as needed
22
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Accounting for diurnal variationdaily mean to instantaneous peak adjustment
some rivers have predictable diurnal melt variations instantaneous peak exceeds daily mean
RFC ESP forecasts simulate the daily mean (from 6 hr models) we now use the observed relationship between daily mean and instantaneous
peak to relate our daily mean peak forecast percentiles to instantaneous peaks
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Spring Weather Really Matters
• Runoff characteristics are largely determined by the day-to-day spring weather. – While large snow pack years increase chances for
flooding, it is not an inevitability– Small snow pack years (like last year) can flood
with the right sequence of spring temperatures
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May 10 Peak Flow Forecasts
April 26 Forecasts May 10 Forecasts
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Peak
Flo
w P
ublic
ation
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Transition from peak flow publication to our active conditions main web page:
Active Conditions Web Page: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov
• Start looking at both at this time – focus on our active conditions map as the peak nears (not always obvious)
• Frequent updates using recent observations and short term meteorological forecasts (active quality control)• Multiple peaks that exceed critical levels may occur (not represented in mean daily forecast)• Known regulation changes will be accounted for on active web page hydrographs
Planning vs real time
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Basin Focal Points (Available to discuss forecasts: 801.524.5130)
Upper Colorado: Brenda AlcornGreen: Ashley NielsonSan Juan / Gunnison: Tracy CoxGreat Basin: Brent BernardLower Colorado (Virgin/Below Powell): Greg Smith
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Peak Flow Forecasts• Forecast updates planned for:
- 5/17, 5/24• Additional webinars can be arranged if needed• Discussion:
– Anything else you need??
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Kevin Werner
CBRFC Service Coordination HydrologistPhone: 801.524.5130
Email: [email protected]
Feedback, Questions, Concerns always welcome….