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CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
32nd EU PVSEC21 June 2016, Munich, Germany
Stephanie Weckend (IRENA), Andreas Wade (IEA‐PVPS), Garvin Heath (IEA‐PVPS)
ContributorsDr. Karsten Wambach (bifa Umweltinstitut), Tabaré A. Currás (WWF), Knut Sander (ökopol) IEA‐PVPS Task 12: Zhang Jia, Keiichi Komoto, Dr. Parikhit SinhaIRENA: Henning Wuester, Rabia Ferroukhi, Nicolas Fichaux, Asiyah Al Ali, Deger Saygin, Salvatore Vinci, Nicholas Wagner
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KEY FINDINGS
Growing PV panel waste represents a new environmental challenge,but also unprecedented opportunities to create and pursue neweconomic avenues.
This report presents global projections for future PV panel wastevolumes to 2050 in two scenarios.Policy action, R&D and supporting analyses are needed to address thechallenges ahead; enabling frameworks can be adapted to the needsand circumstances of each region or country.End‐of‐life management could become a significant component of thePV value chain and can spawn new industries, supporting considerableeconomic value creation.
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KEY FINDINGS
Lessons can be learned from the experience of the European Union indeveloping its regulatory framework to help other countries move upthe learning curve faster and adapt locally‐appropriate approaches.
Considerable technological and operational knowledge about PV panelend‐of‐life management already exists in many countries. This canguide the development of effective waste management solutions,helping to address the projected large increase in PV panel waste.
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GLOBAL PV PANEL WASTE PROJECTION 2016‐2050The world‘s total e‐waste reached a record of41.8 million metric tonnes in 2014. Annual PVwaste was 1000x less in the same year. Yet by2050, the PV panel waste added annualy couldexceed 10% of the record global e‐wasteadded in 2014.
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CUMULATIVE PV WASTE: TOP 5 COUNTRIES 2050
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THE MODEL
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THE MODEL
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THE MODEL
Empirical data on failure modes Probability Loss functions (Weibull curves) for PV panels
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THE MODEL
The scenarios portrayed here should be considered order of magnitude estimates anddirectional rather than highly accurate or precise, owing to the simple assumptions andlack of statistical data.
Uncertainty I: Available data on PV panel failure modes and mechanisms
Uncertainty II: Time lag between failure and end‐of‐life phase
Uncertainty III: Probability of PV panel losses assumes state‐of‐the‐art today and no learning curve
This study developed two scenarios – regular‐loss and early‐loss – to account for theabove uncertainties. To refine estimates in the future, monitoring and reportingshould yield better statistical data to strenghten waste stream forecasts.
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THE RESULTS –EARLY‐LOSS SCENARIO
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THE RESULTS –REGULAR‐LOSS SCENARIO
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PV PANEL COMPOSITION AND WASTE CLASSIFICATION
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PANEL COMPOSITION & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
C‐Si
Thin Film
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PV PANEL WASTE MANAGEMENT OPTIONS
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NON‐HAZARDOUS WASTE
WASTE CLASSIFICATION
GENERAL WASTE
INDUSTRIAL WASTEE‐WASTE
HAZARDOUS WASTE
All PV Panel technologies contain traceamounts of hazardous materials suchas lead, tin, zinc, cadmium, selenium,indium, gallium and others.
INERT WASTE
Depending on the jurisdiction,different waste characterization testsand methods can lead to differentclassifications of PV panel waste.
Typically, standardized leaching testsand material concentration limitsdetermine the classification andminimum requirements for treatmentand disposal.
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LIFE CYCLE & STAKEHOLDERS
Producer Distributor Customer Recycler
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MANAGEMENT SYSTEMSThere are a variety of options for end‐of‐life management structures andfinancial responsibility: ExtendedProducer Responsibility, Polluter‐Pays‐Principle, Public‐Private‐Partnerships,B2B & B2C solutions.
Physical and financial managementsystems
Minimum Requirements & High ValueRecycling
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CASE STUDIES
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CASE STUDIES span range of market and recycling infrastructure maturity
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GERMANY –a mature market Germany will clearly be one of
the first and largest marketsfor PV recycling technologiesin coming years.
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CHINA – leading market withoutPV‐specific waste regulations
Because of China‘s rapidlydeveloping PV industry andmarket, PV Panel recycling isreceiving more attention fromgovernment and producers.
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INDIA – growing market withoutPV‐specific waste regulations
The original National SolarMission (JNNSM) target wasrecently inreased to 100 GWby 2022 – progress towardsthis would increaseprojections.
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VALUE CREATION FROM END‐OF‐LIFE PV PANELS
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REDUCE REUSE RECYCLEPV R&D has set priority topics formaterial use reduction or substitutionfor different components commonlyused in today‘s PV Panels
Recycling processes for thin‐film andcrystalline silicon PV panels have beendeveloped and to some extentimplemented on industrial scale, butmore development is needed
Significant recovery potential fordifferent material streams can berealized through high‐value recycling
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REDUCE
Relative material value of a c‐Si Panel Historic and expected silver consumption per Wp
From a value standpoint, silver is by far the most expensivecomponent per unit of mass of a c‐Si panel – consuming todayabout 15% (incl. losses) of the global silver production. Reductionof this a clear technology target.
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RECYCLE – example processes for CdTe and c‐Si
First Solar Recycling Process Laminated glass recycling
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MATERIALS RECOVERY
2030
Cumulative technical potential for end‐of‐life material recovery under regular‐loss scenario.
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EXTENDING THE VALUE CHAIN
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CONCLUSIONS: THE WAY FORWARD
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CONCLUSIONS
Enabling frameworks will play a central role in supporting sustainableend‐of‐life practices for PV – public sector institutions and the privatesector should cooperate early to establish these.A system‐level approach to PV end‐of‐life management can enhancethe integration of different stakeholders, including PV suppliers andconsumers alike, as well as the waste sector
R&D, education and training, and supporting data and analyses are allneeded to support PV end‐of‐life management
Stimulating investment and innovative financing schemes for PV end‐of‐life management is necessary to overcome financing barriers andensure the support of all stakeholders.
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BACKUP
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POTENTIAL VALUE CREATION
Cumulative Value Creation: Cumulative Value Creation:
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INNOVATION OPPORTUNITIESAs R&D and technological advancescontinue with a maturing industry, thecomposition of PV panels is expected torequire less raw materials.
Rapid global PV growth is expected togenerate a robust secondary market forpanel components and materials.
As current PV installations reach the finaldecommissioning stage, recycling andmaterial recovery will be preferable topanel disposal.
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THE MODEL
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UNITED KINGDOM –a young market
A market with almost nohistoric PV waste andmandatory EOL regulationfrom the beginning.
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JAPAN –advanced market without PV specific waste regulations
A PV pioneer market withrecent rapid growthpotentially leading to a largeincrease in waste by 2040.
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USA – established growing marketwithout PV specific wasteregulations
Voluntary collection andrecycling of end‐of‐life PV hasbeen provided by several PVindustry stakeholders.