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Changing the World:The Flash Memory Revolution
Eli HarariChairman & CEO
SanDisk Corporation
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Forward Looking Statement
During our meeting today we will be making forward-looking statements.
Any statement that refers to expectations, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances is a forward-looking statement, including those relating to revenue, pricing, market share, market growth, product sales, industry trends, expenses, gross margin, production capacity and technology transitions and future products.
Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements including due to the factors detailed under the caption “Risk Factors” and elsewhere in the documents we file from time-to-time with the SEC.
We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof.
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1988 2008
In the past twenty years we have changed the world
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From 36 photos on a roll to 5,000 images in your hand
1988 2008
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From 1 file on a floppy to 1,000 documents on a Flash drive
1988 2008
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From 20 songs on a tape to 5,000 tunes in your pocket
1988 2008
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The music and video revolution continues
1988 2008 201X
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Our industry is facing some challenging times
Falling US Consumer Confidence
Excess Supply, Commodity Pricing
Supply
Demand
Excess Capacity
3rd year of ~ 60% annual ASP decline
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Self-correction will lead to growth with profitability in the next decade
2008
Supply
Demand New Markets Taking Off
Slowing Capacity Adds
Excess Capacity
Profitability
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Flash will profoundly transform three huge growth markets
Consumer Electronics Handsets Computers
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On board GPS systems will be a multi-billion dollar industry
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Video is the new photo
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Flash technology is at the heart of online file sharing, social networking
Capture Store Share
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Flash is enabling the digital book revolution
Amazon Kindle: the future of reading
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New paradigms require new ways of thinking
The world’s first horseless carriage
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The changing face of cell phones
Voice
Data
Video
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Smartphones will account for 28% of wireless shipments in the U.S. this year
Smartphones28%
Source: CEA
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80% of cell phones will have memory slots by 2012
Source: Gartner
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Future of mobile devices: all your content in your pocket
4G Broadband/Wimax: always on
PC OS: Symbian, Android, Mac, Linux, MS Mobile PC
3rd-party applications: iPhone 3G
Local secure flash: (8GB to 128GB)
Flash caching
MNO competition: deliver content & services
Convergence: Netbook PC, Smartphone, Multimedia handsets
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Notebooks continue to lose weight and gain power
20101988 2008
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SSD will complement HDD in enterprise performance
HDD SSD
ReadPerformance
x 100x +
Write Performance
x 10x +
Source: Gartner
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One in five computing devices will have solid state drives by 2011/2012
Source: Gartner
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10% share of the HDD market =huge rise in Flash demand
HDD Total Storage ~ 500,000,000 TB/year
~2012/2013
10% 300mm wafers~12.5M wafers/year
= 10 New Flash Mega-fabs
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Netbook PCs are taking off
2007 2009
500,000
18 million
Source: Taiwan MIC
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Flash has the power to democratize technology
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A billion new middle class consumers in the next ten years
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Affordable computing for every child in every country
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Building communities through wireless networks
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Making light work of global business travel
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D1
D2 D3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0.256Gb
1Gb 2Gb
4Gb8Gb
16Gb 32Gb
64Gb
200mm 300mm
Faster than a speeding Moore: 9 generations in 10 years
Flash’s growth engine: beating Moore’s Law
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D1
D2 D3
‐
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0.256Gb
1Gb
2Gb
4Gb8Gb
16Gb32Gb
64Gb
Techno
logy (nm)
200mm 300mm
210nm 160 130 90 70 56 43 32nm in 9 yearsD1 (SLC) D2 (MLC) D3 (x3)
Unprecedented pace of Flash technology transitions
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Relativ
e Co
st/M
B
D2
D3
1%
10%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
200mm 300mm
Dramatic Flash price reductions: key to new markets
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OUTPUT
EFFORTPhase-Change, Nanotechnology.
DRAM
NAND
3D Memory
Past NAND scaling: up S-Curve
Future NAND scaling; slowing down
ASP/MB accordingly slows
NAND/MLC will likely be eclipsed in next decade
3D R/W promising candidate to continue Moore’s law scaling
S-Curve: Memory Scaling Limits
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N
P
Resistance Change Materials
PCMMetal OxidesSolid ElectrolytesMagnetic materialsand others…
4 f 2
3D Diode Memory Arrays
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Periphery Circuits4 Layers of Memory
3D Diode Memory Arrays
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Conclusion: flash/3D is the place to be in the coming decade
Transforming existing markets Creating new
mega-marketsReturning to
profitable growththru innovation, IP
low cost
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Changing the World:The Flash Memory Revolution
Eli HarariChairman & CEO
SanDisk Corporation