Download - Chap 06(1)
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Business Statistics I
Chapter 6
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Calendar
10/18 Chapter 6
10/23 Finish Chapter 6
Homework Chapter 5 - DELAYED
10/25 Homework Chapter 6
Review Chapter 4-6
10/30 Mid-Term 2 on Chapters 4-6
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Continuous Variables
Chapter 5 introduced Discrete variables:a finite number of values or an infinite
sequence of values
Chapter 6 covers Continuous variables:
any number in an interval or collection
of intervals
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Probability Distributions
Discrete Distributions provide theprobability for any particular value
Probability Density Functions, also
denoted by f(x), do not directlyprovide the probability at that point,
but the area under its curve
provides the probability
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Uniform Probability Distribution
Similar to the discrete uniform probabilitydistribution function:
=
= 0
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Area as a Measure of Probability
Ex: Uniform flight times from 120 to140 minutes - Fig 6.1 (p 235)
For the probability that the flight is
between 120 and 130 minutes,
thats half of the rectangle:
HxW = (1/20) x (130-120) = 0.50
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Area as a Measure of Probability
Ex: Same flight time distribution
Q: What is the probability that theflight takes 128 to 136 minutes?
A: HxW = (1/20) x (136-128) = 0.40
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Area as a Measure of Probability
Just like the discrete probabilitydistributions, two rules:
f(x) 0
Total area under the graph = 1.0
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Normal Probability Distribution
The normal curve, or bell-shaped curve,describes many naturally occurring
events
Notice that its symmetric
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Normal Probability Distribution
Formula is on p 239
Two parameters describe a normal
distribution: = mean
(see bottom p 239)
= standard deviation
(see p 240)
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Normal Probability Distribution
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Example 1
P 242: What is the probability that z 1.00 ?
See the problem as a picture
See the solution from the table
See Table 1, pp 978-979
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Example 2
P 243: What is the probability that-0.50 z 1.25 ?
See the problem as a picture
Find the solution from the tables
f(-0.50) = 0.3085 f(1.25) = 0.8944
Answer: 0.8944 0.3085 = 0.5859
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Transformation of Data into a
Standard Normal Curve
z =
= +
Then use Table 1, pp 978-979
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Example 3
P 246: What is the probability that tires willlast 40,000 miles?
P(x 40,000) = ?
Process: See the problem as a picture
Transform to a standard normal dist
Find the solution from the tables
Solution: =
=
4, ,
, = 0.70Table p 979: P(0.70) = 0.7580
P(x 40,000) = 1 0.7580 = 0.2420
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Example 4
P 247: How many miles represent 10% or less?P(x) 10% ?
Process: See the problem as a picture
Find the solution from the tablesTransform to a standard normal dist
Solution: Table p 978: P(x) 0.1000; x = -1.28
= + = 5,000 1.28 + 36,500
= 30,100
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Chapter 6 Exclusions
We do not cover Sections 6.3 or 6.4
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Questions?