1 DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
October18,2017
China National Day Golden Week 2017 Review
Thisyear,China’sNationalDayGoldenWeekholidaytookplaceonOctober1‒8.Totalspendingonretailandfoodservicespostedarecordhighof¥1.5trillion($226billion),up10.3%yearoveryear.
Duringthefirstsevendaysoftheholiday,tourism-relatedrevenuesreached¥549billion($83billion),up13.9%yearoveryear.Whatwasevidentfromthisyear’sGoldenWeekholidaywas:
1) Chineseoutboundtouristsarefocusingmoreonlocalexperiencesandarespendinginamorediversifiedandrationalmanner.Demandforexperientialtravelandcustomizedtravelisincreasing.
2) Apartfromthemoreconventionaldestinations,mainlandtouristsarebecomingincreasinglyadventurous,withnewdestinationsseeingmorethan50%growthinthenumberoftouristbookings:Morocco,Turkey,UnitedArabEmirates,CzechRepublic,Croatia,Finland,Austria,Germany,Vietnam,CambodiaandItaly.
3) Mobilepaymentgainedtractionduringthisyear’sNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday,asoverseastransactionsforAntFinancial’sAlipaygreweightfold,comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.
AnotherRecord-BreakingGoldenWeekDatafromtheChinaNationalTourismAdministration(CNTA)showedthat705milliontripsweremadeduringthecombinedeight-dayNationalDayandMid-Autumnholidaysthisyear,withtourism-relatedrevenuesreaching¥584billion($88billion).DuringthefirstsevendaysoftheNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday,663milliontripsweremade,whichisup11.9%fromtheseven-dayholidaylastyear,withtourism-relatedrevenuesreaching¥549billion($83billion),implyinganincreaseof13.9%yearoveryear.Fiveyearsago,428milliontripsweremadeduringtheseven-dayholiday.
2 DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
October18,2017
TheCNTAalsoestimatesthatthenumberofoutboundtouristsexceeded6millionduringtheholidayperiod,aslightincreasecomparedtolastyear.Inaddition,71%ofoutboundtouristsspentover¥8,000duringtheNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday,accordingtodatafromXinhuanet.StatisticsfromonlinetravelagentCtripshowedthat46%ofoutboundtravelisstillconcentratedinSoutheastAsia,withThailandbenefittingthemostfromChineseoutboundtravel.
QualityTourismontheRiseChineseoutboundtouristsarefocusingmoreonlocalexperiencesandappeartobespendinginamorediversifiedandrationalmanner.Webelievethisisdrivenbytheirsolidpurchasingpower,aswellastheriseofthemiddleclassinChina.
• Experientialtravel:Airbnbannouncedthatdomesticbookingsincreased126%andoverseasbookingsincreased32%duringtheholidayperiod.Localbed-and-breakfastplayerTujiaalsosawanover400%increaseyearoveryear.ASpokespersonforTujianotedthattouristsarelookingformorepersonalizedexperiencesandhigh-qualityaccommodations,withanaveragespendingof¥557perroompernightduringtheGoldenWeekholiday.
• Customizabletravel:Thereisalsogrowingdemandforamorepersonalizedholidayexperience,asmorethanhalfofChinesetouristsprefercustomizabletravel.Some45%ofChinesetouristschosetraditionalpackagetours,44%choseself-plannedtripsand11%chosetailor-madetravelservices,accordingtodatafromCtrip.
• Solidpurchasingpower:Some70%ofChineseoutboundtouristsspentmorethan¥8,000duringthisyear’sNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday,accordingtodatafromXinhuanet,ofwhich24%spentbetween¥15,000and¥20,000,and6%spentmorethan¥20,000.AmongChineseoutboundtourists,morethan90%chosefour-star-or-aboveaccommodationsthisholiday,accordingtoCtripdata.
Figure1.NationalDayGoldenWeek—SpendingbyChineseOutboundTourists
Note:AsofOctober3,2017.Source:Xinhuanet
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Above¥20,000
¥15,000–¥20,000
¥8,000–¥15,000
¥3,000–¥8,000
¥3,000orbelow
3 DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
October18,2017
LessConventionalDestinationsAreBecomingPopularAswehadanticipatedinourChinaNationalDayGoldenWeek2017Preview,SoutheastAsia,ThailandandJapanwerethetopbeneficiariesofChineseoutboundtravelduringthisyear’sNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday,andKoreawasthebiggestloser.AccordingtotheCNTA,themostvisitedcountriesthisyearincludedRussia,Thailand,Vietnam,SingaporeandMalaysia,andthetopcitieswereMoscow,St.Petersburg,Bangkok,PattayaandSingapore.
Apartfromthemoreconventionaldestinations,mainlandtouristsarealsobecomingincreasinglyadventurous.DatafromtheCNTAshowthatChineseoutboundtouriststraveledto1,155overseascitiesin88countriesforthisyear’sholiday.AccordingtoCtrip,severalnewdestinationssawmorethan50%growthinthenumberoftouristbookingsthisyear:Morocco,Turkey,UnitedArabEmirates,CzechRepublic,Croatia,Finland,Austria,Germany,Vietnam,CambodiaandItaly.
WinnersandLosersAccordingtoCtrip,46%ofChineseoutboundtouristschosetotraveltoSoutheastAsiaduringtheNationalDayGoldenWeek.WeseeThailandandJapanasthetopbeneficiariesofChineseoutboundtravelduringtheholiday,andKoreaasthelargestloser.
Figure2.NationalDayGoldenWeek—FavoriteDestinationsbyChineseOutboundTourists
Note:AsofSeptember28,2017.Source:Ctrip
ThailandtheFavoriteDestinationforChineseTravelersTherehasbeenarecentcrackdowninChinaon“zerodollars”tours—i.e.,tourswhereChinesetouristsaretrickedintobuyingacheaptourpackageonlytofindtheirexpensesincreasesignificantlyoncetheyarriveatthedestination.Asaresult,260,000ChinesevisitorstravelledtoThailandduringthisyear’sGoldenWeek,ayear-over-yearincreaseof35%fromlastyear,accordingtotheTourismAuthorityofThailand.TheseChinesetouristsareexpectedtogeneratetourism-relatedrevenuesofoverTHB11billion(or$33million)forThailandduringtheholiday,accordingtotheMinistryofTourismandSports.
SouthEasiaAsia,46%
HongKong/Macau/
Taiwan,13%
Japan/Korea,12%
Europe,11%
America,7%
MiddleEastandAfrica,6%
Australia,5%
4 DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
October18,2017
MobilePaymentGainsTractionOverseastransactionsforAntFinancial’sAlipaygreweightfoldovertheNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday,comparedtothesameperiodlastyear,accordingtoAntFinancial.Incomparison,thetransactionvalueofoverseaspaymentsinHongKongreachedbillionsofrenminbiduringtheGoldenWeekholiday,nearlydoublethetransactionvalueinJapanduringthesameperiod.
Source:Alipay.com
RetailSawSolidGrowth;PopularityofDutyFreeShopsContinuesRetailandrestaurantrevenuesreached¥1.5trillion($225.6billion)duringtheholiday,withdailyaveragesalesup10.3%yearonyear,accordingtotheMinistryofCommerce.DutyfreeshoppingcontinuestobethefavoriteamongChinesetourists.AccordingtodatafromWeChat,over52%ofoutboundtouristsshoppedatdutyfreeretailersovertheNationalDayGoldenWeekholiday.
Figure3.NationalDayGoldenWeek—MostPopularStoresAmongChineseOutboundTourists
Note:AsofOctober8,2017.Source:WeChat
Duty-Free
Retail
PharmaciesConvenience
Stores
Food&Beverage
Others
5 DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
October18,2017
Losers
SouthKoreaMissesOutDuringGoldenWeekAsalreadydiscussedinourChinaNationalDayGoldenWeek2017Preview,Koreahasfallenofftheleaguetableforthetop-10most-populardestinationsforChinesetourists.SincetheTHAADmissileincidentearlierthisyear,thenumberofChinesetouriststoKoreahasplummeted.Ctrippredictedafallofaround70%inthenumberofChineseoutboundtouriststoSouthKoreaduringtheNationalDayholiday.
ForouranalysisoftheperformanceofKorea’sretailsectorintheaftermathoftheTHAADmissileincident,seeourDeepDive:Future-ProofingDepartmentStoresinAsia—Part1
Figure4.ChineseOutboundTravel—AnnualChange(%)
Source:NationalTourismOrganizations
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
HongKong Macau Thailand JapanSouthKorea Singapore Taiwan Malaysia
TheTHAADmissileincident'simpactonKorea.
Malaysiaisbecomingapopulardesqnaqon.
6 DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
October18,2017
DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFGRTNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:[email protected]
SimicChanSeniorResearchAssociate
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