Please refer to page 10 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
HONG KONG
966 HK Outperform
Price (at 08:00, 23 Mar 2016 GMT) HK$17.72
Valuation HK$ 48.12 - Sum of Parts
12-month target HK$ 30.00
Upside/Downside % +69.3
12-month TSR % +69.3
Volatility Index High
GICS sector Insurance
Market cap HK$m 63,686
Market cap US$m 7,945
Free float % 40
30-day avg turnover US$m 20.1
Number shares on issue m 3,594
Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E
NEP bn 9.1 10.8 12.0 13.3 Underwriting Result bn -14.9 -18.3 -22.4 -27.4 Investment Income bn 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 Life Prem bn 102.3 127.0 152.0 180.7 Life Total Rev bn 126.1 142.2 177.6 213.0 Pretax Life Op Inc bn 8.8 5.7 7.6 9.9 PBT bn 11.0 8.4 10.4 13.0 Reported profit bn 6.3 5.2 6.4 7.9
Net Op Income bn 6.3 5.2 6.4 7.9
EPS adj HK$ 1.95 1.44 1.79 2.21 PER adj x 9.1 12.3 9.9 8.0 DPS HK$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Dividend yield % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total SH Funds bn 71.8 79.9 88.8 99.8 BV/S HK$ 16.62 18.50 20.84 23.50 ROE % 12.6 8.2 9.1 10.0 ROA % 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 P/BV x 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 Tot Embedded Val bn 81.9 107.2 127.0 150.0
966 HK rel HSI performance, & rec history
Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2016
(all figures in HKD unless noted)
Analyst(s) Scott Russell, FIAA +852 3922 3567 [email protected] Howard Li +852 3922 1497 [email protected]
23 March 2016 Macquarie Capital Limited
China Taiping Insurance Strong underlying trends undervalued Event
Taiping’s FY15 result contains ammunition for both bears and bulls. Bears
will focus on weak 2H15 NPAT, large unrepeatable capital gains and higher
asset allocation towards debt schemes. By contrast, we prefer to focus on the
strong sustainable agent development, substantial margin improvement,
stability in running yields and the healthy solvency position, features which we
consider more reflective of underlying performance. We reiterate Outperform.
Impact
Very positive new business trends: VNB rose 48% for FY15 (in line with
our expectations) and growth accelerated in 2H. Unlike the 1H15 result
(where volumes were strong and margins fell), 2H15 saw margins rise
substantially as protection mix improved and premium terms lengthened.
Expansion of agent channel. Recruitment accelerated in 2H15 and the
company now has 232k agents. This has naturally put pressure on near-term
productivity, which we estimate fell 9% in FY15 (refer to page 4). While we
expect this may continue in 2016, headcount gains should underpin strong
agent sales in 2016; current headcount levels are 35% ahead of the FY15
average. This supports our VNB growth forecast of 27% in FY16.
Confident about investment outlook. The market remains concerned about
the serviceability of 2.5-4.0% policyholder guarantees as risk-free rates
decline. We note Taiping has slightly increased its EV investment return
assumption (in year one only) to 5.5%pa. While minor, this suggests to us
that the company remains confident about its near-term investment outlook. In
any event, this action – and the rising HoH yields in 2H15 – does not support
concerns for declining yields.
Solid solvency vs unclear asset quality. TP Life reported a solvency ratio
226%, flat in 2H15. Mgmt stated that this rises to 271% under C-ROSS, the
new risk-based solvency regime designed to penalise risky behaviour. As
such, it would appear that CIRC is not uncomfortable with Taiping’s asset-
liability management. In 2H15, the most obvious asset reallocations were to
debt schemes (19.3% of total invested assets) and equities (14.4%).
NPAT had been preannounced. Nonetheless 2H15 NPAT appears weak,
down 77% yoy. The source of the weakness was not clear as the decline in
divisional NPAT, capital gains and reserving strains were only modest.
Earnings and target price revision
We reduce our EPS forecasts by 2-3%. We increase our VNB forecasts by
<1%. Our target price HK$30 is unchanged.
Price catalyst
12-month price target: HK$30.00 based on an Appraisal methodology.
Catalyst: Monthly premium trends, policy reforms, 1H16 results due in August.
Action and recommendation
Outperform rating. The company continues to deliver above-average new
business growth, yet we think the stock trades cheaply at 0.57x P/EV.
Macquarie Research China Taiping Insurance
23 March 2016 2
Fig 1 China Taiping: Financial summary
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016
P&L (HKm) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E BS (HKm) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E
Year ending: Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Year ending: Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
GWP + fees 111,603 138,432 168,754 200,263 236,749 Cash & deposits 86,885 81,354 129,215 162,297 197,956
NEP 66,714 130,657 159,609 189,614 224,344 Bonds 149,656 150,285 238,257 299,255 365,006
Net investment income 14,095 16,525 20,722 26,537 32,578 Equity 35,588 51,773 39,087 49,094 59,881
Capital gains 3,410 11,627 (7) 5,075 6,285 Debt scheme 60,862 71,516 82,419 103,519 126,265
Other income 899 1,860 1,528 1,655 1,897 Property & other AUM 17,304 16,936 26,329 33,070 40,336
Total income 85,117 160,668 181,851 222,880 265,103 Intangibles 930 930 930 930 930
P/H benefit (34,030) (61,520) (46,980) (61,967) (76,311) Other assets 92,325 115,236 79,323 92,911 106,571
Increase in life reserves (14,350) (50,824) (79,351) (94,812) (110,205) Total assets 443,549 488,031 595,560 741,075 896,944
Commission costs (10,887) (12,873) (18,624) (22,103) (26,126)
G&A expenses (18,418) (23,392) (27,352) (32,460) (38,393) Insurance liabilities 265,021 299,905 382,208 481,545 597,893
Total benefits & expenses (77,686) (148,608) (172,307) (211,341) (251,034) Debt 21,488 32,179 32,179 32,179 32,179
Operating profit 7,431 12,060 9,545 11,539 14,069 Repo 39,524 16,648 16,648 16,648 16,648
Finance costs (820) (1,049) (1,124) (1,124) (1,124) Other liabilities 66,177 67,502 84,640 121,949 150,465
Share of associates 2 (2) (13) 10 14 Total liabilities 392,210 416,233 515,674 652,321 797,184
PBT 6,614 11,008 8,407 10,424 12,959 NET ASSETS 51,339 71,799 79,886 88,755 99,761
NPAT 4,874 8,168 6,385 7,912 9,827
Minority interests 832 1,827 1,205 1,495 1,881 Share capital 27,291 40,771 40,771 40,771 40,771
NPAT attributable 4,042 6,341 5,180 6,417 7,946 Reserves&retained earings 13,409 18,957 25,729 34,119 43,686
- Life 3,409 6,681 4,452 5,785 7,432 Equity attributable to SH's 40,700 59,728 66,500 74,890 84,457
- P&C 993 1,287 1,206 1,368 1,558 Non-controlling interests 10,638 12,071 13,386 13,864 15,304
- Reinsurance 388 422 526 641 762 Total equity 51,339 71,799 79,886 88,755 99,761
- Others 84 (222) 201 119 75
Shares o/s (closing, mn) 3,108 3,594 3,594 3,594 3,594
EPS 1.44 1.78 1.44 1.79 2.21 Shares o/s (wtd avg, mn) 1,974 3,415 3,594 3,594 3,594
- grow th on pcp 86.1% 23.6% -19.2% 23.9% 23.8%
DPS declared - - - - - SOLVENCY RATIOS FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E
Payout ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Year ending: Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Life 275% 226% 228% 181% 137%
EV ANALYSIS (HKm) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E P&C, PRC 174% 178% 239% 227% 203%
Year ending: Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 P&C, HK 1766% 859% 836% 839% 842%
Non-life ANW 16,464 35,686 31,107 33,085 35,315 Reinsurance 372% 551% 494% 460% 440%
TPI 3,054 5,759 6,355 7,048 7,859
CTPI (HK) 3,331 5,032 5,539 6,096 6,707 PREMIUM (HKm) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E
TPRe 2,575 5,253 5,770 6,398 7,142 Year ending: Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Corp 7,504 19,642 13,443 13,544 13,607 TPL 82,209 99,538 123,576 147,822 175,789
Life EV 65,553 81,862 107,152 126,983 150,027 TPI 16,750 20,000 24,000 28,800 34,560
Group EV (reported) 82,017 117,548 138,259 160,068 185,342 CTPI (HK) 2,864 4,929 5,422 5,964 6,561
Reported Group ROEV 45.4% 21.7% 14.7% 15.9% 15.9% TPRe 6,108 8,005 8,966 10,041 11,246
Others 3,592 3,175 3,334 3,501 3,676
TPL VNB growth 37.4% 39.1% 27.5% 19.4% 13.4% Total GWP 111,523 135,647 165,298 196,128 231,832
- Agency 52.0% 33.2% 30.8% 20.1% 13.0% - grow th on YoY 27% 21% 24% 20% 19%
- Bancassurance 31.2% -16.0% -32.8% 0.0% 27.5%
Agency 14,665 17,006 21,993 25,616 28,870
TPL VNB margin (% APE) 23.0% 26.8% 27.1% 28.7% 29.1% Bancassurance 25,966 26,084 30,060 30,060 31,755
- Agency 32.9% 34.7% 34.8% 35.8% 35.8% Others 694 720 757 783 811
- Bancassurance 8.5% 6.8% 4.0% 4.0% 4.7% TPL FYP 41,326 43,809 52,811 56,460 61,435
- grow th on YoY 27% 6% 21% 7% 9%
KEY METRICS FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Agency 12,937 16,355 21,323 24,926 28,159
Year ending: Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Bancassurance 5,300 5,552 6,448 6,448 6,962
Invmt income yield 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% Others 582 523 549 575 603
Gross invmt return 5.5% 7.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% TPL new APE 18,818 22,430 28,321 31,950 35,724
Reported ROE 13.4% 12.6% 8.2% 9.1% 10.0% - grow th on YoY 48% 19% 26% 13% 12%
Reported ROA 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
TPL INTERIMS (HKm) 1H15A 2H15A 1H16E 2H16E 1H17E
Divisional ROE 17.4% 25.5% 12.2% 12.4% 13.8% 6M ending: Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17
TPI GWP + fees 85,396 53,036 105,351 63,404 125,497
COR 99.8% 99.9% 99.9% 99.9% 99.9% NEP 80,092 50,565 100,315 59,294 119,626
Divisional ROE 10.1% 13.6% 9.4% 9.9% 10.4% Net investment income 8,080 8,445 9,575 11,147 12,542
TPI Overseas Capital gains 10,136 1,491 (2,119) 2,112 2,392
COR 94.2% 97.3% 97.3% 97.3% 97.3% Other income 825 1,035 1,004 524 1,086
Divisional ROE 8.7% 7.9% 8.6% 8.5% 8.5% Total income 99,133 61,535 108,775 73,076 135,645
TPRe P/H benefit (39,812) (21,708) (22,213) (24,767) (30,135)
COR 96.5% 93.9% 93.9% 93.9% 93.9% Increase in life reserves (32,188) (18,636) (54,584) (24,767) (67,167)
Divisional ROE 9.4% 8.1% 8.1% 8.9% 9.5% Commission costs (6,760) (6,113) (11,623) (7,001) (13,851)
Per share data: G&A expenses (10,246) (13,145) (16,114) (11,238) (19,160)
BVPS 13.10 16.62 18.50 20.84 23.50 Total benefits & expenses (89,006) (59,602) (104,534) (67,773) (130,312)
NTAPS 12.80 16.36 18.24 20.58 23.24 Operating profit 10,127 1,933 4,241 5,304 5,333
Group EVPS (adjusted basis) 19.27 25.24 29.96 34.45 39.65 Finance costs (477) (572) (562) (562) (562)
Life EVPS (adjusted basis) 15.04 16.27 21.30 25.24 29.83 Share of associates 2 (4) 12 (25) 15
Non-life BVPS 9.19 11.71 10.20 10.85 11.59 PBT 9,651 1,357 3,691 4,716 4,785
Group AVPS 21.18 23.66 28.19 32.75 38.05 NPAT 7,263 905 2,809 3,576 3,639
Valuation at current price HK$17.14: Minority interests 1,405 422 596 609 734
PER 15.5x 13.5x 11.9x 9.6x 7.8x NPAT attributable 5,858 484 2,213 2,967 2,905
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
P / B 1.71x 1.44x 0.93x 0.82x 0.73x EPS 1.77 0.01 0.62 0.83 0.81
P / EV 1.16x 0.95x 0.57x 0.50x 0.43x - grow th on pcp 133.2% -98.4% -65.3% 7404.1% 31.3%
Implied NB multiple 1.4x 0.3x -8.0x -9.5x -11.2x DPS declared - - - - -
Macquarie Research China Taiping Insurance
23 March 2016 3
Key takeaways in pictures
Fig 2 Growth in value of new business… Three strong years in a row. FY15 VNB rose 48% (in RMB) and accelerated HoH into 2H15
Note: Growth rates shown are in HK$ reporting currency. Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016
Fig 3 Sales volume growth... Weaker sales in 2H15 across all channels. We expect this reflects a focus on better quality products (as per management commentary) and preparation for 1Q16 boom.
APE = Annualised premium equivalent (of new policy sales). Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15
Historic VNB growth
VNB (HK$m) VNB growth % yoy
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15
Historic APE growth
APE (HK$m) APE growth % yoy
Macquarie Research China Taiping Insurance
23 March 2016 4
Fig 4 Agent headcount… Rapid recruitment trend in 2H15 (+57% HoH)
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016
Fig 5 Agent productivity… Sales per agent fell sharply in 2H15 after the headcount increases of the prior two years. We expect this to continue in 2016 as new agents take time to contribute.
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016
18,413 25,74241,140 46,781
60,78150,527 46,064
57,860
112,796133,734
147,953
231,766
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1H15 FY15
Agent headcountFY15:+73%
3,0002,488
3,5443,750
5,2876,010
5,7046,382
6,8786,229 6,450
5,969
7,3487,266
9,617
5,8325,567
4,321
7,186
4,579
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15
New
AP
E p
er ag
en
t per m
onth
(H
KD
)
Agent productivity
FY15:-9% YoY
2H15:-36% YoY
Macquarie Research China Taiping Insurance
23 March 2016 5
Fig 6 VNB margin by channel... Very strong agent margin improvement in 2H15
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016
Fig 7 Agent sales by premium payment term... Average premium term has been shortening over the past three to four years, however majority of business is still healthy with >10Y terms.
Note: Data based on agent channel first-year regular premiums (FYRP) Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016
19% 19%
27% 27%25% 23%
27% 27%30%
22%24% 22%
26% 25%
30%
22%
36%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15
VN
B a
s %
AP
E
VNB margins by channel
Agents Banca Others TOTAL
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15
3-9 years 10-19 years 20-29 years 30+ years
Macquarie Research China Taiping Insurance
23 March 2016 6
Fig 8 Agent sales by product type... Clear focus on long-term products and ongoing skew toward protection products
Note: Data based on agent channel first-year regular premiums (FYRP) Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016
Fig 9 Allocation of investment assets… Clear skew toward debt schemes and alternative fixed income classes since CIRC liberalisation in 2011. Taiping has the most aggressive investment allocation amongst the listed players.
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15
Short term savings Long term savings Long term protection Others
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1H15 FY15
Unattributed assets
Investments in associates
Trusts & WMPs
Debt invmt schemes
Direct property
Equities (unlisted)
Equities (listed)
Bonds (non-Govt)
Bonds (Govt)
Policy loans
Cash & deposits
Non-standard &
unattributed = 27.2%
Macquarie Research China Taiping Insurance
23 March 2016 7
Earnings forecasts
We have refreshed our forecasts and our changes are summarised in Fig 10.
We have reduced our FY16 and FY17 EPS forecasts by 2% and 3% respectively largely due to
lower assumed investment returns.
We have increased our FY16 and FY17 VNB forecasts by <1%. Whilst we have pulled back our
sales forecasts somewhat, we lift our margin expectations given strong 2H15 delivery.
Fig 10 What’s changed?
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016
HKD mn FY16e FY16e FY16e FY16e FY17e FY17e FY17e FY17e
Current Previous ∆ ∆ % Current Previous ∆ ∆ %
GWP + fees 168,754 170,701 (1,947) -1% 200,263 205,532 (5,269) -3%
Premium ceded (7,628) (7,421) (208) -3% (8,885) (8,772) (113) -1%
Change in UPR (1,518) (3,034) 1,516 50% (1,765) (3,580) 1,816 51%
NEP 159,609 160,247 (638) 0% 189,614 193,180 (3,566) -2%
Net investment income 20,722 23,085 (2,363) -10% 26,537 28,153 (1,617) -6%
Capital gains (7) (334) 327 98% 5,075 5,445 (371) -7%
Other income 1,528 1,628 (101) -6% 1,655 1,773 (118) -7%
Total income 181,851 184,626 (2,775) -2% 222,880 228,551 (5,671) -2%
P/H benefit (46,980) (45,391) (1,589) -4% (61,967) (60,624) (1,343) -2%
Increase in life reserves (79,351) (83,806) 4,455 5% (94,812) (100,948) 6,137 6%
Commission costs (18,624) (18,849) 225 1% (22,103) (22,709) 607 3%
G&A expenses (27,352) (26,999) (353) -1% (32,460) (32,535) 75 0%
Total benefits & expenses (172,307) (175,045) 2,738 2% (211,341) (216,816) 5,475 3%
Operating profit 9,545 9,581 (37) 0% 11,539 11,735 (196) -2%
Finance costs (1,124) (1,282) 158 12% (1,124) (1,282) 158 12%
Share of associates (13) 1 (14) -2265% 10 4 6 146%
PBT 8,407 8,299 108 1% 10,424 10,456 (33) 0%
Income tax (2,022) (1,927) (95) -5% (2,512) (2,437) (75) -3%
NPAT 6,385 6,372 13 0% 7,912 8,020 (108) -1%
Minority interests 1,205 1,070 136 13% 1,495 1,404 90 6%
NPAT attributable to S/H 5,180 5,302 (123) -2% 6,417 6,615 (198) -3%
Basic EPS (HK$) 1.44 1.48 (0.03) -2% 1.79 1.84 (0.06) -3%
Breakdown of NPAT:
TPL 4,452 4,158 294 7% 5,785 5,563 222 4%
TPI 672 857 (185) -22% 783 1,021 (238) -23%
CTPI(HK) 534 578 (45) -8% 585 633 (49) -8%
TPRe 526 870 (344) -40% 641 1,070 (429) -40%
Corp 201 (92) 292 319% 119 (267) 386 144%
APE 28,321 30,678 (2,357) -8% 31,950 34,606 (2,656) -8%
VNB 7,670 7,635 35 0% 9,161 9,130 31 0%
COR - TPI 99.9% 99.6% 0.2% 99.9% 99.6% 0.2%
COR - CTPI(HK) 97.3% 94.3% 3.1% 97.3% 94.3% 3.1%
COR - TPRe 93.9% 91.6% 2.2% 93.9% 91.6% 2.2%
Group EV 138,259 135,659 2,600 2% 160,068 157,876 2,191 1%
Macquarie Research China Taiping Insurance
23 March 2016 8
Valuation & target price
We have refreshed our sum-of-parts valuation of the company, a summary of which is set out in
Fig 11.
Our fair value has not materially changed (HK$48.12, from HK$47.88). We keep our target price
unchanged at HK$30.
Fig 11 Macquarie valuation of China Taiping
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016
FY16E, HK$m unless stated TPL TPI CTPI(HK) TPRe Corporate Consolidated
Methodology Adjusted EV P/B P/B P/B NTA
Valuing 100% ownership:
EV (adjusted basis) 101,945 7,492 6,531 6,803 14,919
Implied P/EV (x) 1.9x 0.9x 0.7x 0.8x 0.5x
Implied VNB multiple (x) 14.4x NA NA NA NA
NPAT 4,455 672 534 526
Implied PER (x) 44.3x 10.0x 9.1x 10.9x
Valuation 197,315 6,696 4,855 5,742 7,460
Valuing Taiping Group's stakes:
Taiping Group ownership 75.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Valuation of stake 148,183 6,696 4,855 5,742 7,460 172,935
Valuation per share (HK$) 41.23 1.86 1.35 1.60 2.08 48.12
Implied P/EV (x) 1.9x 0.9x 0.7x 0.8x 0.5x 1.61x
Implied PER (x) 44.3x 10.0x 9.1x 10.9x 33.4x
Macquarie Research China Taiping Insurance
23 March 2016 9
Macquarie Quant View
The quant model currently holds a reasonably positive view on China
Taiping Insurance. The strongest style exposure is Valuations, indicating
this stock is under-priced in the market relative to its peers. The weakest
style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had weak
medium to long term returns which often persist into the future.
Displays where the
company’s ranked based on
the fundamental consensus
Price Target and
Macquarie’s Quantitative
Alpha model.
Two rankings: Local market
(China) and Global sector
(Insurance)
120/246 Global rank in
Insurance
% of BUY recommendations 68% (13/19)
Number of Price Target downgrades 7
Number of Price Target upgrades 0
Macquarie Alpha Model ranking Factors driving the Alpha Model
A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score
(higher is better).
For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their
contribution to the current overall Alpha score.
Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator Drivers of Stock Return
The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions
signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction
revisions. Current score shown below.
Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes
in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple.
What drove this Company in the last 5 years How it looks on the Alpha model
Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company’s
returns over the last 5 years.
A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is
better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market.
Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group ([email protected])
Fu
nd
am
en
tals
Quant
Local market rank Global sector rank
Attractive
0.2
0.5
0.6
1.0
1.5
1.6
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
China Life Insurance
Ping An Insurance
China Taiping Insurance
New China Life Insurance
China Pacific Insurance
AIA Group
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
China Life Insurance
Ping An Insurance
China Taiping Insurance
New China Life Insurance
China Pacific Insurance
AIA Group
Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings
Momentum
Price
Momentum
Quality
-0.5
-0.1
-0.3
-0.3
0.5
-0.1
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
China Life Insurance
Ping An Insurance
China Taiping Insurance
New China Life Insurance
China Pacific Insurance
AIA Group
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
China Life Insurance
Ping An Insurance
China Taiping Insurance
New China Life Insurance
China Pacific Insurance
AIA Group
Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return
-43%
-33%
-32%
-30%
23%
28%
29%
39%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
⇐ Negatives Positives ⇒
BPS Growth FY1
Number of Shares Increase…
Profit Margin NTM
EPS Growth 5yr Historic
Price to Sales FY0
Price to Cash FY0
IRR Dividend Disc. Model
Price to Book FY0
0 1
Technicals & TradingRisk
LiquidityCapital & Funding
QualityPrice Momentum
Earnings MomentumProfitability
Growth
ValuationAlpha Model Score
-0.95-0.10
-0.09-0.70
NaN-0.38
0.36-0.19 0.26
0.53 0.58
0 1
Normalized
Score
0 50 100
Percentile relative
to sector(/246)
0 50 100
Percentile relative
to market(/815)
Macquarie Research China Taiping Insurance
23 March 2016 10
Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield
Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%
Macquarie – South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%
Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return
Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return
Volatility index definition*
This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only
Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations
Financial definitions
All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).
Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 December 2015
AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR
Outperform 50.68% 61.04% 53.16% 47.90% 65.22% 43.59% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 5.33% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Neutral 31.51% 24.66% 34.18% 47.70% 29.71% 34.62% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 5.02% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Underperform 17.81% 14.30% 12.66% 4.39% 5.07% 21.79% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 3.78% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
966 HK vs HSI, & rec history
(all figures in HKD currency unless noted)
Note: Recommendation timeline – if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2016
12-month target price methodology
966 HK: HK$30.00 based on a Appraisal methodology
Company-specific disclosures: 966 HK: Macquarie Capital Limited makes a market in the securities of China Taiping Insurance Holdings Co Ltd. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 17-Feb-2016 966 HK Outperform HK$30.00 26-Aug-2015 966 HK Outperform HK$32.00 08-May-2015 966 HK Outperform HK$35.00 27-Mar-2015 966 HK Outperform HK$30.00 11-Feb-2015 966 HK Outperform HK$28.00 25-Aug-2014 966 HK Outperform HK$21.85 31-Mar-2014 966 HK Outperform HK$17.10 13-Dec-2013 966 HK Outperform HK$16.15
Target price risk disclosures: 966 HK: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures.
Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Ltd total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group’s Investment Banking activities. General disclaimers:
Macquarie Research China Taiping Insurance
23 March 2016 11
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