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Relationships between inter-annual variability in water quality and SAV at broad scales in Chesapeake Bay
Christopher J. PatrickDonald E. Weller
Smithsonian EnvironmentalResearch Center
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Temporal Changes in SAV Coverage
Tota
l # o
f Spe
cies
Total No. of All Species
Eurasian Watermilfoil
Dominant Natives
Year
Abun
danc
e of
pla
nt m
ater
ial
Change in Baywide SAV from 1978 to 2012
from: http://web.vims.edu/bio/sav/BayAreaChart.htm
Change in SAV from 1958 to 1975 at the Susquehanna Flats
From: Orth & Moore 1984
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5 subestuaries
9 subestuaries
6 subestuaries
5 subestuaries
0 subestuaries
1 subestuaries
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Dens
ity W
eigh
ted
Occ
upie
d SA
V Ha
bita
t
Years
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Major Goal: Develop statistical models that explain inter-annual variability in SAV within subestuaries, to better understand inter-annual variability in SAV at the scale of Chesapeake Bay
Predictions: 1) Models fit within each salinity zone will
differ from one another.
2) Differences between models for each salinity zone will be explained by differences in biology of SAV communities found in each salinity zone
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PCA for time series analysis, AKA Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis, is a way to reduce the dimensionality of sets of time series composed of similar data in similar units. We then detrended series to remove global patterns so we could focus on short term variability (Torchin 2003) . This makes those data ready for standard time series analysis (Jassby et al. 1992, Cloern & Jassby 1995, Bjornsson & Venegas 1997)
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 20080
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 Example: Polyhaline Zone Subestuaries
Outlier Time Series may
unduly affect the
mean
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Polyhaline Zone1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
68
1012
14
Time
Mea
n_PH
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Time
Inve
rted_
Detre
nded
_EOF1
_PH
Temporal Mode1 – 86% of variation explained
Temporal Mode 1 Polyhaline SAV Across Subestuaries
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Mesohaline – EOF Analysis
Temporal Mode1 – 57% of variation explained
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
12
34
Time
Mea
n_M
H
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Time
EO
F1_M
H
Temporal Mode 1 Mesohaline SAV Across Subestuaries
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Oligohaline – EOF Analysis
Temporal Mode1 – 49.4% of variation explained
Temporal Mode 2 – 24.6% of variation explained
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
24
68
1012
14
Time
Mea
n_O
H
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Time
Inve
rse_
Det
rend
ed_E
OF1
_OH
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
TimeInve
rse_
Det
rend
ed_E
OF2
_OH
_inv
ert
Detrended Mode 1 Oligohaline SAV Across Subestuaries
Detrended Mode 2 Oligohaline SAV Across Subestuaries
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Chesapeake Bay
CBP Water Quality Database (1984 –Present)
Hundreds of sample sites.Data collected monthly or twice a month.
Data of interest:TSSDOCChlaSecchi Depth
USGS – River Input Monitoring Program
Nitrogen Loads from major rivers
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Chesapeake Bay
Chla Sampling Stations
614 Total
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CBP Salinity Zones
Tidal freshOligohalineMesohaline
Polyhaline
Chla Sampling Stations
614 Total
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Mouth of the Potomac
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Mouth of the Potomac
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Variables Considered CBP-WQ Variables (mean, minimum, maximum)- Secchi Depth- TSS (Total Suspended Solids)- DOC (dissolved organic carbon)- Chla (growing season (March – October), March, April, May,
and June)
USGS River Monitoring Data- Susquehanna River Nitrogen Load- Susquehanna River + Potomac River nitrogen load- Nitrogen load for all rivers feeding Chesapeake Bay
Cross Correlation Analysis within each salinity zone
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Oligohaline SAV
Maximum TSS is negatively cross correlated with SAV (time lagged two years)
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Oligohaline SAV
May Chla, Minimum DOC, Maximum Secchi Depth
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Mesohaline SAV
Significant negative cross correlation for: Mean and Maximum Secchi Depth
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Polyhaline Zone SAV
Significant negative cross correlation with a one year time lag for:March Chla, Susquehanna River Nitrogen, Whole Bay Nitrogen load, and Susqehanna River + Potomac River
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Oligohaline SAV
• TSS, DOC, Secchi Depth – Indicators of water clarity
• May Chla ( coinciding with shoot emergence?)– Phytoplankton blooms can reduce water clarity.
Timing can be important (Gallegos et al. 2005)
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Oligohaline SAV – Interesting Patterns
1993 - 1995 1999 - 2001
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Major freshets in spring of 1993
Enough to move sediment from behind Conowingo Dam
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Mesohaline SAV• Secchi Depth is indicative of water quality
c
Interesting decline occurs in 1999
Orth et al. 2010 observed similar SAV declines at this timecc
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Polyhaline Zone SAV
• Nitrogen Load– linked to water clarity both directly and indirectly
• March Chla ( coinciding with shoot emergence?)– Phytoplankton blooms can reduce water clarity.
Timing can be important (Gallegos et al. 2005)
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Polyhaline Zone SAV – Interesting Patterns
1993 – 1994 Freshets?
2005 – 2006Heat Stress Die Back
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Conclusions• Predictors differ between the different salinity
zones of the Bay– Major drivers punctuated by short powerful events that exceed thresholds
(either biological or physical)
• Upper Bay – May Chla, DOC, TSS, Scour and burial from storms
• Mid Bay – water clarity (measured by Secchi depth)
• Lower Bay – March Chla, Susequehanna River Flows, possibly freshets, and heat stress
Management application:Different management approaches to different regions of the bay?
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Acknowledgements
Smithsonian EnvironmentalResearch Center
Helpful comments: Matt Ogburn, Eva Marie Koch, Lee Karr, Chuck Gallegos, Tom Jordan, Matt Kornis
Data Sources : Chesapeake Bay Program, VIMS, MDNR
Funding: NOAA Grant MA08 Predicting Impacts of Multiple Stressors-- 654068 4120