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Information Technologies that will drive Enterprise Change
Forbes/Gartner CIO Congress
14 June 1998
Gordon Bell
Microsoft Corp.http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
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Topics...
JAWS JAWES T STEW WEST
– WEB– E-Commerce– Scalability– Telepresence
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Region/Region/IntranetIntranet
Campus,Campus,including SANsincluding SANs
HomeHome
BodyBody
WorldWorld
ContinentContinent
Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!
Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms
CarCar
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“Everything will be in Cyberspace”
Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate?… or
Cyberization enables new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them – Infrastructure supports the content– Three evolutionary dimensions
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Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information
Coupling to all information and information processors
Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video Bit tokens e.g. money, stock State of: places, things, and people State of: physical networks
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Atoms vs Electrons for bitsAtoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless)people know computers knowbricks & mortar anywhere
(personnel/clients)office hours anytimedatabase & reports web access for review
and transactionsletter & fax email & web accessphone email, voice & video mailpersonal visits videophone / videomailsignature authenticated imagesenvelopes digital envelopes / store
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By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.
Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K
Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.
Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.
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Why this is the keystone bet! It determines the market
– for networks– for access devices… especially PCs
It says something about the utility– commerce – communication– entertainment
Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables– phones– videophones– television– serendipity
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Internetters growth
‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
Internet GrowthInternet Growthextrapolated at 98% per yearextrapolated at 98% per year
World PopulationWorld Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per yearextrapolated at 1.6% per year
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
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Internetters growth
InternettersInternetters
PCsPCs
TVs & PhonesTVs & Phones
World PopulationWorld Population10000
1000
100
10‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
““1 Gp by 20001 Gp by 2000””NegroponteNegroponte
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Growth in hypeWWW
Infoway addiction
Infoway regulation
lawsuits
Data from Gordon’s WAG
conferences
books,newspapers
Infoway promise:“how great it’ll be” (politicians, academics, etc.)
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Articles about security, privacy, & fraud versus commerce ($M)
Data from Gordon’s WAG
articles about risk and NOT doing commerce
actual commerce
pornography, crime, FUD, etc. articles
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Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space
ComputationComputation
CommunicationCommunication CyberizationCyberizationPrograms, Content & messages
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DataData
Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020?
TelephonyTelephony
TelevisionTelevision
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New & in-house custom applications
SAP, PeopleSoft, BAAN, Oracle ERP Oracle, MS-SQL, SyBase, Informix Notes, Outlook, Netshow, File & Print SMTP, POP, Exchange, ccMail HTTP(s), DNS, FTP, Real, Pointcast
Visibility is Required for Every Part of the System!
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Managing the entire IT Enterprise: servers, apps, nets and clients …
Enterprise’s growing dependence upon apps for business processes and extended market reach … and especially E-commerce
Growing complexity of apps and Growing “user” diversity including customers No visibility into the user’s experience
The approach has to be to understand the system from the user’s perspective!
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Client Based Passive Flow Analysis: End-to-end Path Visibility
AvailabilityCongestion, Hop Count, DelayRTT (Round Trip Time)Route flutter, Packet lossAvailable Throughput
AvailabilityLoadDelayRefused
connections
Transaction Time
AvailabilityPC HealthConfigurationDelay
Client Network Server
Routers & Switches
User BehaviorModemPhone Line
Availability Transaction HealthApplications
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One million people will access the web via TV sets...
Bet::At least one million users will access the web/internet via their television sets by the end of 2001.
Via: phone line, 16%xDSL 19% cable modem 17% settop box/cable 39%not at all 9%
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Underlying Technologies
Merchant Servers– Microsoft– Open Market– SUN– iCat
Cyber Agencies– CKS– Organic– DoubleClick
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Underlying Technologies Incentive Systems (money surrogate)
– Digital IQ - Coupons– Netcentives - Frequent Flyer Miles– Impulse Buy Network - Buyer’s Network– Narrative - Direct Response– Sweepstakes - Yoyodyne– e-Bay - Auctions
Cyber “Consumer Reports”– Junglee– Jango– NECX
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Channels More Cybermediaries -
Bring Buyers and Sellers Together– Yahoo– FastParts, Inc.– Instill Corp
Consumer Magnets - Buyers With Useful Information link to Manufacturers & Service Providers– Auto-by-Tel– Get-Smart.com– Junglee– NECX
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Predictions that will change your job
As Cybermediaries Gain Momentum - They could Control Buying Process
Existing Suppliers Risk Being Supplanted by Startups That Will Own the Internet channel– Example: Amazon.Com
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Atoms represent “money”, ownership, … risk
IT responsible for the infrastructure for a wide range of activities: advertising, selling, delivery, billing, support, etc.
For many, the WEB is the Interface
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Atoms vs Electrons for financial bitsAtoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless)money database, smart card,
credit card, debit cardstatements web accessbills / checks bill present. / check freecoupons cyber-coupons
stock database, webstatements, reports web access, email +company infor, analyst reports, etc.private placements web access, emailtrade confirmation direct tradesmail voting on line voting
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Scalability
User-built Scalables aka Clusters are like nothing we’ve seen before...
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Billions Of Clients
Every device will be “intelligent” Doors, rooms, cars… Computing will be ubiquitous
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Libretto, .5mm pencil
PCS; Pilot
Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife
Compass; altimeter
Not shown: ECG; GPS;
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Billions Of ClientsNeed Millions Of Servers
MobileMobileclientsclients
FixedFixedclients clients
ServerServer
SuperSuperserverserver
ClientsClients
ServersServers
All clients All clients networked to networked to serversservers May be nomadicMay be nomadic
or on-demandor on-demand Fast clients wantFast clients want
fasterfaster servers servers Servers provide Servers provide
Shared DataShared Data ControlControl CoordinationCoordination CommunicationCommunication
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Cluster: Shared What? Shared Memory Multiprocessor
– Multiple processors, one memory– all devices are local– DEC, HP, IBM, Sequent, SGI, SUN
Shared Disk Cluster– an array of nodes– all shared common disks– VAXcluster + Oracle
Shared Nothing Cluster– each device local to a node– ownership may change– Tandem, SP2, Wolfpack
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SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms
Standard (I.e. commodity) platform The SAN (System Area Network) standard
makes the network ubiquitous … and great! Common operating system for platform,
reducing vendor and customer costs,and enables affordable, standard apps
Cluster technology Apps are TRANPARENT!!!
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SNAP Systems circa 2000
Local & global data commworld
ATM & Ethernet:to PC, workstation,
& servers
Wide-area global
ATM network
Legacymainframe &minicomputer
servers & terminals
Centralized& departmental
servers built fromPCs
scalable computers built from PCs & SANs
TC=TV+PChome ...
(CATV or ATM or satellite)
???
Portables
A space, time (bandwidth), generation, and reliability scalable environment
Person servers (PCs)
MobileNets
Telecomputersaka Internet
Terminals
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Scaling dimensions include:
reliability… including always up number of nodes
– most cost-effective system built from best nodes… PCs with NO backplane
– highest throughput distributes disks to each node versus into a single node
location within a region or continent time-scale I.e. machine generations
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Gbps Ethernet: 110 MBps
SAN: Standard Interconnect
PCI: 70 MBps
UW SCSI: 40 MBps
FW SCSI: 20 MBps
SCSI: 5 MBps
LAN faster than memory bus?
1 GBps links in lab.
100$ port cost soon
Port is computer
RIPFDDI
RIPATM
RIPSCI
RIPSCSI
RIPFC
RIP?
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Basic Argument for x-Disks
Future disk controller is a super-computer.– 1 bips processor– 128 MB dram– 100 GB disk plus one arm
Connects to SAN via high-level protocols– RPC, HTTP, DCOM, Kerberos, Directory Services,…. – Commands are RPCs– management, security,….– Services file/web/db/… requests– Managed by general-purpose OS with good dev
environment Move apps to disk to save data movement
– need programming environment in controller
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All God’s Children Have Clusters!Buying Computing By the Slice
People are buying computers by the dozens– Computers only
cost 1k$/slice! Clustering them
together
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“Commercial” NT Clusters
16-node Tandem Cluster– 64 cpus– 2 TB of disk– Decision support
45-node Compaq Cluster– 140 cpus– 14 GB DRAM– 4 TB RAID disk– OLTP (Debit Credit)- 1 B tpd (14 k tps)
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Loki: Pentium Clusters for Sciencehttp://loki-www.lanl.gov/
16 Pentium Pro Processorsx 5 Fast Ethernet interfaces+ 2 Gbytes RAM+ 50 Gbytes Disk+ 2 Fast Ethernet switches+ Linux…………………...
= 1.2 real Gflops for $63,000(but that is the 1996 price)
Beowulf project is similarhttp://cesdis.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/people/
becker/beowulf.html
Scientists want cheap mips.
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Intel/Sandia: 9000x1 node Ppro
LLNL/IBM: 512x8 PowerPC (SP2)
LNL/Cray: ?
Maui Supercomputer Center– 512x1 SP2
Our Tax Dollars At WorkASCI for Stockpile Stewardship
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NCSA Cluster The National Center for
Supercomputing ApplicationsUniversity of Illinois @ Urbana
500 Pentium cpus, 2k disks, SAN Compaq + HP +Myricom A Super Computer for 3M$ Classic Fortran/MPI programming NT + DCOM programming model
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4 B PC’s (1 Bips, .1GB dram, 10 GB disk 1 Gbps Net, B=G)
The Bricks of CyberspaceCost 1,000 $Come with
– NT– DBMS– High speed Net– System management– GUI / OOUI – Tools
Compatible with everyone elseCyberBricks
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Some Tera-Byte DatabasesKilo
Mega
Giga
Tera
Peta
Exa
Zetta
Yotta
The Web: 1 TB of HTML TerraServer 1 TB of images Several other 1 TB (file) servers Hotmail: 7 TB of email Sloan Digital Sky Survey:
40 TB raw, 2 TB cooked EOS/DIS (picture of planet each week)
– 15 PB by 2007 Federal Clearing house: images of checks
– 15 PB by 2006 (7 year history)
Nuclear Stockpile Stewardship Program– 10 Exabytes (???!!)
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Kilo
Mega
Giga
Tera
Peta
Exa
Zetta
Yotta
A novel
A letter
Library of Congress (text)
All Disks
All Tapes
A Movie
LoC (image)
Info Capture You can record
everything you see
or hear or read. What would you
do with it? How would you
organize & analyze it?
Video 8 PB/lifetime (10GB/h)Audio 30 TB (10KB/s) Read/write:8 GB (words)
See: http://www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html
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Kilo
Mega
Giga
Tera
Peta
Exa
Zetta
Yotta
A novel
A letter
LoC (text)LoC (text)
All Tapes
A Movie
LoC (image)
All Photos
LoC (sound + cinema)
All Information!
All Disks
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Now how do you find or use the rich information
Need the system to: locate, retrieve, visualize, order, up load the corporation’s IP assets (text, proposals, images, videos, presentations, etc.) … with appropriate controls.
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ColorB&W
BrightnessContrast
Volume
Speech-Music
Meta Information
Image Recognition for ObjectsSpeech RecognitionImage Recognition, Lexical CuesTranscriptsClose CaptionLexical Analysis
Context Relevance
ViewingPreviews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork
SmartMedia Technologies
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Telepresence… being there while being here, at another time, and with time scaling Telepresentations Telemeetings The “work”
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Motivation:Telepresentations
• Presenter and/or audience telepresent
NOT: meeting or collaboration settings
Forget the nasty social issues!
Mostly one-way
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TelepresentationElements
Slides Audio Video Script,
text comments, hyperlinks,etc.
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Telepresentations:The Essentials
Slide and audio a must Add some video
(low quality) to make us feel good
Storage and transmission costs low
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Telepresentations:The Killer App
Increased attendance & lower travel costs
Practical and low-cost NOW e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real
space, 20,000 visitors on Internethttp://research.microsoft.com/acm97
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Today’sExperiment
Would you like to pause, rewind, browse? Do you wish you could have seen this
– At home?– At another time?
How much does a present speaker add? How much would you pay for real presence?
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Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupid
http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
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““
””
By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use.
Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper,
loser gets fed)
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Teleworking CW 9/1/97
15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk 42% of US Co’s; 22% have policies
(screening, worker expectations, liability, IP protection, etc.
Are telecommuters more productive?– 30% yes– 50% same– 4% no– 16% don’t know
Are telecommuters more accessible?– 13% yes– 40% same– 40% no– 7% don’t know
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Telepresencehold a meeting of type, m
university or technical course
interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board meeting, annual meeting, “town hall”,
with p, distributed persons
with as much interactivity and feeling
such that people prefer being telepresent
meetings are provably more productive
meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus traditional synchronous
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SOHO (small office, home office)network computing environment
NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP
gateway, file, print, compute
IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps
Phone
POTS (legacy services)
*NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.
...
LAN
PC NC*PC...
PhonePhone
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Problems of living & working in Cyberspace: socio vs technical Isolation & loneliness
– need for communication/stimulation– chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas– loss of group/teamwork skills– danger of becoming “terminal”
interruptions & focus lack of support staff to help, answer ?s supervision and ability to have 1:1 unclear that many people want it…
they simply need the contact with people
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A People Model: Who wants to be in Cyberspace?
Spock
formal(in writing)
Self-control
informal(verbal)
Sally Field
Souter Evangelism Swaggert
Analyticals.. being right, detailed
analretentives
Drivers…results orient.
megalo-maniacs
Amiables…consensusbuilders
spinelesswimps
Expressives...want recognition, need contact
psychotics
Managing Interpersonal Relationships(MIR)
2D Model
--------------chat----------------
emailbroadcast- push
Intensity