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Climate and southern Africa’s water-energy-food nexus
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Overview
• Climate and the nexus…..
• Exposure
• Interannual variability
• Seasonal forecasting
• Climate change
• Impacts
• Regional governance
instruments
Presentation and figures from; Conway, D., et al., 2015. Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus. Nature Climate Change, 5(9), pp.837-846.
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Climate and the nexus
Figure source: CDKN, 2014 Adapted from Hoff, 2011 Understanding the Nexus (SEI)
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Exposure to climate variability
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Figure source: CDKN, 2014
Exposure – national level
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VICTORIA FALLS (Zambezi)
600650700750800850900950
100010501100
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Years
Rainf
all (m
m)
400
900
1400
1900
2400
2900
River Flow (m3/s)
RainfallRiver Flow
Conway D, et al. Rainfall and water resources variability in sub-Saharan Africa during the 20th century. J Hydrometeorol 2009, 10:4 59. doi:10.1175/2008JHM1004.1.
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Figure source: CDKN, 2014
Seasonal forecasting
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Climate scenarios
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Climate impacts
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Impacts – maize yield from global crop models
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Color hues show the multi-model mean change, and saturation shows the agreement on the sign of change across all GHM–GCM combinations (percentage of model runs agreeing on the sign)
Schewe et al. (2013) Multi-model assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.
Impacts – multi-model change in discharge, 2 °C warming
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Regional governance mechanisms
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Regional / transboundary instruments
• Trade • Southern African Power Pool • SADC • River basin organisations
Figure source: CDKN, 2014 Water resources transfers (km3) through food trade in 2007
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Variability and exposure - high Climate already a problem
Effects cut across nexus sectors
Thank you