Download - Climate Change and Disaster Management
Climate ChangeClimate Changeand Disaster Managementand Disaster ManagementClimate ChangeClimate Change
and Disaster Managementand Disaster Management
Prof. David AlexanderProf. David AlexanderGlobal Risk Forum Global Risk Forum -- DavosDavosProf. David AlexanderProf. David AlexanderGlobal Risk Forum Global Risk Forum -- DavosDavos
Climate change effectsClimate change effectsClimate change effectsClimate change effects
•• major population increases at coastsmajor population increases at coastswith with rising sea levelrising sea level and and land lossland loss
•• major population increases at coastsmajor population increases at coastswith with rising sea levelrising sea level and and land lossland loss
•• more extreme physical forces leadmore extreme physical forces leadto to more frequent and intensemore frequent and intense floods,floods,hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...
•• more extreme physical forces leadmore extreme physical forces leadto to more frequent and intensemore frequent and intense floods,floods,hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...
Anticipated climate change effects:Anticipated climate change effects:--Anticipated climate change effects:Anticipated climate change effects:--
hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...
•• major changes in major changes in food chainfood chain::crop production,crop production, soil erosion, etc.soil erosion, etc.
•• major changes in major changes in food chainfood chain::crop production,crop production, soil erosion, etc.soil erosion, etc.
•• disease reservoirsdisease reservoirs change geographicallychange geographically•• disease reservoirsdisease reservoirs change geographicallychange geographically
•• less available less available coastal landcoastal land..•• less available less available coastal landcoastal land..
Wind speed and hurricane damage arenon-linearly related: small increases in windspeed can lead to huge increases in damage
Mag
nitu
de
Fre
quen
cy
What does the old magnitude-frequencyrule mean in real-life situations?
Mag
nitu
de
Fre
quen
cyLogarithm ofreturn period
Magnitude
RIS
KRisk as product
Ve
rtic
al ax
is s
ca
les:
: p
rob
ab
ilit
y o
f o
ccu
rre
nce
: p
ote
nti
al d
am
ag
e
: valu
e o
f p
rob
ab
le c
osts
an
d lo
sses
Falling hazard
with diminishing
probability of
occurrence
HA
ZA
RD
Rising vulnerability
with increasing
seriousness of
potential
consequencesVULNERABILIT
Y
Total annual
predicted
costs and losses
of hazard and
vulnerability
Severity
Ve
rtic
al ax
is s
ca
les:
Ha
zard
: p
rob
ab
ilit
y o
f o
ccu
rre
nce
Vu
lnera
bilit
y:
po
ten
tia
l d
am
ag
e
Ris
k:
valu
e o
f p
rob
ab
le c
osts
an
d lo
sses
Fat-taileddistribution
HAZARDHAZARDHAZARDFREQ
UEN
CY
FREQ
UEN
CY
MAGNITUDEMAGNITUDE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
RIS
KRIS
K
HAZARDHAZARD
RIS
KRIS
K
RIS
KRIS
K
HAZARDHAZARD
Uniformitatianviewpoint
Uniformitatianviewpoint
Catastrophistviewpoint
Catastrophistviewpoint
Hazard or riskamplifiedby lack ofmitigation
RIS
K (R) OR
FREQ
UEN
CY O
F H
AZARD
Arb
itra
rily
def
ined
disa
ster
thr
esho
ld
Frequency /
impact level
Hazard or riskmitigated
VULNERABILITY (V) OR IMPACT LEVEL
RIS
K (R) OR
FREQ
UEN
CY O
F H
AZARD
Arb
itra
rily
def
ined
disa
ster
thr
esho
ld
World VulnerabilityWorld Vulnerabilityto Disastersto Disasters
World VulnerabilityWorld Vulnerabilityto Disastersto Disasters
Courtesy of Dr Terry CannonCourtesy of Dr Terry Cannon
Courtesy of Dr Terry CannonCourtesy of Dr Terry Cannon
ImbalancesImbalancesImbalancesImbalances
Land areaLand areaLand area
PovertyPovertyPoverty
WealthWealthWealth
PopulationPopulationPopulation
Priorities?Priorities?Priorities?Priorities?
Source: news.bbc.co.ukSource: news.bbc.co.ukSource: news.bbc.co.ukSource: news.bbc.co.uk
Katrina:Katrina:an emergencyan emergencymanagementmanagementddêêbaclebacle
Katrina:Katrina:an emergencyan emergencymanagementmanagementddêêbaclebacle
HURRICANE KATRINAHURRICANE KATRINAA balance sheet computed with hindsightA balance sheet computed with hindsight::--
•• impact scenarios ignoredimpact scenarios ignored•• forecasts shrugged offforecasts shrugged off
•• wind loading factors not taken intowind loading factors not taken intoaccount sufficiently in structural designaccount sufficiently in structural design
•• reliance on fallible structural protectionreliance on fallible structural protection
HURRICANE KATRINAHURRICANE KATRINAA balance sheet computed with hindsightA balance sheet computed with hindsight::--
•• impact scenarios ignoredimpact scenarios ignored•• forecasts shrugged offforecasts shrugged off
•• wind loading factors not taken intowind loading factors not taken intoaccount sufficiently in structural designaccount sufficiently in structural design
•• reliance on fallible structural protectionreliance on fallible structural protectionaccount sufficiently in structural designaccount sufficiently in structural design
•• reliance on fallible structural protectionreliance on fallible structural protection•• inadequate emergency planinadequate emergency plan
•• inadequate evacuationinadequate evacuationplanning and managementplanning and management
•• slow and inefficient Federal responseslow and inefficient Federal response•• Hurricane Ivan lessons not implementedHurricane Ivan lessons not implemented..
account sufficiently in structural designaccount sufficiently in structural design•• reliance on fallible structural protectionreliance on fallible structural protection
•• inadequate emergency planinadequate emergency plan•• inadequate evacuationinadequate evacuationplanning and managementplanning and management
•• slow and inefficient Federal responseslow and inefficient Federal response•• Hurricane Ivan lessons not implementedHurricane Ivan lessons not implemented..
A "classquake"A "classquake"A "classquake"A "classquake"
Squatter settlementin BangladeshSquatter settlementin Bangladesh Flood levelFlood level
Normal river levelNormal river levelNormal river levelNormal river level
Rather than mitigating the sources ofvulnerability to disaster, globalisation ismaintaining, exporting and reinforcingthem by its divide-and-rule strategies
Rather than mitigating the sources ofvulnerability to disaster, globalisation ismaintaining, exporting and reinforcingthem by its divide-and-rule strategies
Disaster risk and povertyDisaster risk and poverty
• Intensive risk: high concentrationof mortality and disaster losses
• Intensive risk: high concentrationof mortality and disaster losses
• Extensive risk: geographic dispersalof population to low-intensity risk
• Extensive risk: geographic dispersalof population to low-intensity risk
• Everyday risk: crime, political• Everyday risk: crime, political
Disaster risk and other risk:-Disaster risk and other risk:-
• Everyday risk: crime, politicalviolence, food insecurity, pollution,lack of clean water and sanitation
• Everyday risk: crime, politicalviolence, food insecurity, pollution,lack of clean water and sanitation
• Poverty: relative and absolute,leading to marginalisation
• Poverty: relative and absolute,leading to marginalisation
• Poverty and vulnerability arealmost (but not quite) synonymous.
• Poverty and vulnerability arealmost (but not quite) synonymous.
A double standard:A double standard: $$3,500,000,000 to 3,500,000,000 to save hedge funds,save hedge funds, $$100,000,000 to100,000,000 tosave the victims of Hurricane Mitchsave the victims of Hurricane Mitch
A double standard:A double standard: $$3,500,000,000 to 3,500,000,000 to save hedge funds,save hedge funds, $$100,000,000 to100,000,000 tosave the victims of Hurricane Mitchsave the victims of Hurricane Mitch
In 2005 the richIn 2005 the richcountries donatedcountries donated$4.5 billion to the$4.5 billion to thecountries affectedcountries affectedby the Indianby the IndianOcean tsunamiOcean tsunami
In 2005 the richIn 2005 the richcountries donatedcountries donated$4.5 billion to the$4.5 billion to thecountries affectedcountries affectedby the Indianby the IndianOcean tsunamiOcean tsunami
At the same time,At the same time,the U.N. was the U.N. was notnot
able to raiseable to raise$30 million for the$30 million for the
major crisis in Dafurmajor crisis in Dafur
At the same time,At the same time,the U.N. was the U.N. was notnot
able to raiseable to raise$30 million for the$30 million for the
major crisis in Dafurmajor crisis in Dafur
Vulnerability
TotalTotal: life : life isisgenerallygenerallyprecariousprecarious
TotalTotal: life : life isisgenerallygenerallyprecariousprecarious
NewlyNewlygeneratedgenerated::causedcaused bybychangeschanges inincircumstancescircumstances
NewlyNewlygeneratedgenerated::causedcaused bybychangeschanges inincircumstancescircumstances
EconomicEconomic::people people lacklackadequateadequateoccupationoccupation
EconomicEconomic::people people lacklackadequateadequateoccupationoccupation
TechnologicalTechnologicalTechnologicalTechnologicalVulnerability
ResidualResidual: : causedcaused bybylacklack ofof modernisationmodernisationResidualResidual: : causedcaused bybylacklack ofof modernisationmodernisation
DelinquentDelinquent::causedcaused bybycorruptioncorruption,,negligencenegligence,,etc.etc.
DelinquentDelinquent::causedcaused bybycorruptioncorruption,,negligencenegligence,,etc.etc.
TechnologicalTechnologicaltechnocratictechnocratic::causedcaused bybythe the riskinessriskinessofof technologytechnology
TechnologicalTechnologicaltechnocratictechnocratic::causedcaused bybythe the riskinessriskinessofof technologytechnology
Disaster ManagementDisaster Managementin a Changing Worldin a Changing WorldDisaster ManagementDisaster Managementin a Changing Worldin a Changing World
The components of risk
Physical disaster
Magnitude
Frequency
Duration
ExpositionLocation of hazard
Environment
Human vulnerability
Environment
ResistanceLifestyle and earnings
Health
Resilience
Adjustments
Risk reduction activities
Preparations for disaster
After Ian Davis (2005)After Ian Davis (2005)
HazardHazard x x VulnerabilityVulnerability x x ExposureExposure= = RiskRisk →→ DisasterDisaster
HazardHazard x x VulnerabilityVulnerability x x ExposureExposure= = RiskRisk →→ DisasterDisaster
HazardHazard x x WASTEWASTE x x ExposureExposure= = RiskRisk →→ DisasterDisaster
HazardHazard x x WASTEWASTE x x ExposureExposure= = RiskRisk →→ DisasterDisaster
Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable.Over the period 1950-2000 the world
saw increases of:
• 250% in the number of recorded disasters
• 500% in number of disasters with victims
• 500% in the number of affected people
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Economic losses in disasters
0
20
40
60
80
100
U.S
$ b
illio
n
152 bn US$
• 500% in the number of affected people
• 1640% in the costof insured damage.
• 1500% in the totalcost of disasters
Then (1950s) Now (2011)
Under-reporting of disasters
More complete recording
Counting only direct effects
Quantifying indirect effects
Smaller population of hazardous places
Larger population, greater densitieshazardous places greater densities
Less inequality Growing inequality and
marginalisation
Less fixed capital at risk
Relentless accumulation of fixed capital
Simpler socio-economic networks
More complex networks
Civil DefenceCivil DefenceCivil DefenceCivil DefenceCivil ProtectionCivil Protection
InstabilityInstabilitythreatsthreats
ComplexComplexhazardshazards
EvolvingEvolvingstrategicstrategicsituationsituation
EvolvingEvolvingstrategicstrategicsituationsituation
LargeLargetechnologicaltechnological
hazardshazards
LargeLargetechnologicaltechnological
hazardshazards
'Na'Na--tech'tech'(hybrid)(hybrid)
'Na'Na--tech'tech'(hybrid)(hybrid)
Civil ProtectionCivil Protection
EnhancedEnhancednatural hazardsnatural hazards
NaturalNaturalhazardshazards
EvolvingEvolvingclimateclimatechangechange
EvolvingEvolvingclimateclimatechangechange
(hybrid)(hybrid)hazardshazards(hybrid)(hybrid)hazardshazards
MajorMajorgeophysicalgeophysical
eventsevents
MajorMajorgeophysicalgeophysical
eventsevents
Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part of stateson the part of states
Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part of stateson the part of states
Civil defenceCivil defence
Natural disastersNatural disastersNatural disastersNatural disasters
Civil protectionCivil protection
"Homeland security"(civil defence)
"Homeland security"(civil defence)Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part ofon the part of
groups of dissidentsgroups of dissidents
Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part ofon the part of
groups of dissidentsgroups of dissidents
"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters
"Civil contingencies"(resilience)
"Civil contingencies"(resilience)
Naturaldisasters
Techno-logical
disasters
Socialdisasters
Inten-tional
disasters
Natural AnthropogenicNatural Anthropogenic
Civildefence
Civil
"Civilcontingencies"
Civilprotection
"Homeland Security"
"Civil"Civilcontingencies"contingencies"managementmanagement
"Civil"Civilcontingencies"contingencies"managementmanagement
CivilCivilprotectionprotection
CivilCivilprotectionprotection
TheThesecuritysecurityindustryindustry
TheThesecuritysecurityindustryindustry
Emergenciesand disasters
"Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security"
"Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security"
BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuity
managementmanagement
BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuity
managementmanagementComplexComplexemergenciesemergencies
ComplexComplexemergenciesemergencies
Emergenciesand disasters
HomelandHomelandHomelandHomeland
Civil protectionCivil protection::what degree ofwhat degree ofpolitical support?political support?
Civil protectionCivil protection::what degree ofwhat degree ofpolitical support?political support?
What role forWhat role forthe the securitysecurityindustryindustry ininthe generalthe generalemergency?emergency?
What role forWhat role forthe the securitysecurityindustryindustry ininthe generalthe generalemergency?emergency?
What are theWhat are thelimits of limits of civilcivilcontingenciescontingenciesmanagementmanagement??
Emergenciesand disastersHomelandHomeland
securitysecurity::is reductionis reduction
in civil libertiesin civil libertiesacceptable?acceptable?
HomelandHomelandsecuritysecurity::
is reductionis reductionin civil libertiesin civil liberties
acceptable?acceptable?
WhatWhatrelationshiprelationshipof of businessbusinesscontinuitycontinuity
managementmanagementwith civilwith civil
authorities?authorities?
WhatWhatrelationshiprelationshipof of businessbusinesscontinuitycontinuity
managementmanagementwith civilwith civil
authorities?authorities?
Complex emergenciesComplex emergencies::How much aid fromHow much aid fromdonor countries?donor countries?
Complex emergenciesComplex emergencies::How much aid fromHow much aid fromdonor countries?donor countries?
Emergenciesand disasters
HazardHazardmonitoring &monitoring &forecastingforecastingDisasterDisaster
managementmanagement
MajorMajorincidentincident
PoliciesPoliciesPlansPlansProceduresProcedures
Human &Human &materialmaterial
PopulationPopulation(community)(community)protectionprotection
incidentincidentmanagementmanagement
IncidentIncidentmanagementmanagement
ProceduresProceduresProtocolsProtocols
materialmaterialresourcesresources
Resilience andResilience andSustainabilitySustainabilityResilience andResilience andSustainabilitySustainability
An asset is notAn asset is notvulnerable unlessvulnerable unlessit is it is threatenedthreatenedby somethingby something
A hazard is notA hazard is nothazardous unlesshazardous unless
it it threatensthreatenssomethingsomething
RISKRISK
Resilience
VulnerabilityVulnerabilityVulnerabilityVulnerabilityHazardHazardHazardHazard RISKRISKExtremeExtremeeventsevents
ElementsElementsat riskat risk
Exposure
DRRDRR
KnowledgeKnowledge of of communitycommunityvulerabilityvulerability
KnowledgeKnowledgeof hazardsof hazardsandand their their impactsimpacts
DRRDRR
KnowledgeKnowledgeof copingof coping
capacitycapacity andandresilienceresilience
DisasterDisasterRiskRisk
ReductionReduction
Disaster riskDisaster risk
Population(community)protection
Plans,procedures,protocols
Plans,procedures,protocols
Disaster riskDisaster riskreductionreduction
Incidentmanagement
Incidentmanagement
Humanand materialresources
Humanand materialresources
Hazardforecasting,monitoring,
etc.
Hazardforecasting,monitoring,
etc.
needs to be shortenedneeds to belengthened
preparationfor thenext event
warning Reconstruction
repair ofbasic
services
Emergencymanagement
impactimpact servicesimpactimpact
Sustainable reduction of risks and impacts
SustainableSustainable emergencyemergency management:management:--SustainableSustainable emergencyemergency management:management:--
•• isis centredcentred uponupon the the locallocal levellevel((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))
•• isis centredcentred uponupon the the locallocal levellevel((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))
•• hashas the the supportsupport andandinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulation
•• hashas the the supportsupport andandinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulationinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulationinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulation
•• is based on is based on plansplans that are fullythat are fullydisseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently revised
•• is based on is based on plansplans that are fullythat are fullydisseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently revised
•• is a fundamental, everyis a fundamental, every--day day serviceservicefor the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..
•• is a fundamental, everyis a fundamental, every--day day serviceservicefor the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..
Attitude:Attitude:•• positive outlookpositive outlook•• ingenious approachesingenious approaches•• searching for solutionssearching for solutions•• involving other peopleinvolving other people
Attitude:Attitude:•• positive outlookpositive outlook•• ingenious approachesingenious approaches•• searching for solutionssearching for solutions•• involving other peopleinvolving other people
RESILIENCERESILIENCERESILIENCERESILIENCE
RedundancyRedundancy•• expensive but worthwhileexpensive but worthwhileRedundancyRedundancy•• expensive but worthwhileexpensive but worthwhile
Preparedness:Preparedness:•• emergency plansemergency plans•• monitoring & forecastingmonitoring & forecasting•• warning & evacuationwarning & evacuation•• public informationpublic information
Preparedness:Preparedness:•• emergency plansemergency plans•• monitoring & forecastingmonitoring & forecasting•• warning & evacuationwarning & evacuation•• public informationpublic information
•• expensive but worthwhileexpensive but worthwhile•• alternative solutionsalternative solutions•• extra capacityextra capacity
•• expensive but worthwhileexpensive but worthwhile•• alternative solutionsalternative solutions•• extra capacityextra capacity
TotalTotalvulnerabilityvulnerability
Risk perceptionRisk perceptionfactorsfactors
Risk perceptionRisk perceptionfactorsfactors-- ++
positivepositivenegativenegative
RiskRiskamplificationamplification
factorsfactors
RiskRiskamplificationamplification
factorsfactors
RiskRiskmitigationmitigationfactorsfactors
RiskRiskmitigationmitigationfactorsfactors
TotalTotalvulnerabilityvulnerability
DIALECTICDIALECTICDIALECTICDIALECTIC
Linkages
MitigationMitigationand riskreduction
PreparationPreparationand
warning
Integrationthrough planning
and training
Emergencyaction
RecoveryRecoveryand
reconstruction
Intensive riskIntensive riskIntensive riskIntensive risk
Extensive riskExtensive riskExtensive riskExtensive riskUnd
erly
ing
Und
erly
ing
Und
erly
ing
Und
erly
ing
risk
risk
drive
rsdrive
rse.
g. v
ulne
rabili
tye.
g. v
ulne
rabili
ty
Global
drive
rsGlobal
drive
rsGlobal
drive
rsGlobal
drive
rse.
g. w
eak
gove
rnan
cee.
g. w
eak
gove
rnan
ce
Disas
ter
Disas
ter
Disas
ter
Disas
ter
impa
cts
impa
cts
Everyday riskEveryday riskEveryday riskEveryday risk
PovertyPovertyPovertyPoverty
Und
erly
ing
Und
erly
ing
Und
erly
ing
Und
erly
ing
risk
risk
e.g.
vulne
rabili
tye.
g. v
ulne
rabili
ty
Global
drive
rsGlobal
drive
rsGlobal
drive
rsGlobal
drive
rse.
g. w
eak
gove
rnan
cee.
g. w
eak
gove
rnan
ce
Pove
rty
Pove
rty
Pove
rty
Pove
rty
outc
omes
outc
omes
Disaster risk and povertyDisaster risk and poverty
•• governancegovernance: the action or: the action ormanner of governing (OED)manner of governing (OED)
•• governancegovernance: the action or: the action ormanner of governing (OED)manner of governing (OED)
•• participatory democracyparticipatory democracy and usingand usingthe concept of stakeholdersthe concept of stakeholders
•• participatory democracyparticipatory democracy and usingand usingthe concept of stakeholdersthe concept of stakeholders
Conclusions: what we need:Conclusions: what we need:Conclusions: what we need:Conclusions: what we need:
•• transparencytransparency, freedom from corruption,, freedom from corruption,economic probity and good governmenteconomic probity and good government•• transparencytransparency, freedom from corruption,, freedom from corruption,economic probity and good governmenteconomic probity and good government
•• the importance of protecting the importance of protecting livelihoodslivelihoods•• the importance of protecting the importance of protecting livelihoodslivelihoods
•• linkinglinking the disaster risk reduction agendathe disaster risk reduction agendato the climate change adaptation oneto the climate change adaptation one..
•• linkinglinking the disaster risk reduction agendathe disaster risk reduction agendato the climate change adaptation oneto the climate change adaptation one..
•• to have a to have a political profilepolitical profile•• to have a to have a political profilepolitical profile
•• to be to be adaptableadaptable to rapid andto rapid andprofound changes in politicalprofound changes in politicalpriorities, environmental andpriorities, environmental and
•• to be to be adaptableadaptable to rapid andto rapid andprofound changes in politicalprofound changes in politicalpriorities, environmental andpriorities, environmental and
The disaster manager needs...The disaster manager needs...
priorities, environmental andpriorities, environmental anddemographic circumstancesdemographic circumstancespriorities, environmental andpriorities, environmental anddemographic circumstancesdemographic circumstances
•• to to monitormonitor the climate changethe climate changeagenda, science and debateagenda, science and debate
•• to to monitormonitor the climate changethe climate changeagenda, science and debateagenda, science and debate
•• to ensure that his or herto ensure that his or herprogrammes are programmes are sustainablesustainable..
•• to ensure that his or herto ensure that his or herprogrammes are programmes are sustainablesustainable..
Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you for your for your attention!attention!
Thank you Thank you for your for your attention!attention!