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Climate Change and its impact on Forests in Europe and North America
Andrew J. R. Gillespie, Ph. D. United States Environmental Protection Agency
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• Overview of climate science relevant to forests
• Implications for forests in Europe and North America
• What we are doing about it
Goal of Presentation
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Climate – long term (~30 year) trends in atmospheric behaviors such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind patterns, and storms.
Weather – short term (days) atmospheric behavior
• Climates are always changing – dynamic systems, not constant
• Difference today is the rate at which climate is changing:
– Evidence that it is more rapid than usual for last 800,000 years
– Evidence that it is due to fossil fuels and deforestation
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• Direct measurements since the mid 1800s– Daily temperature, precipitation/many
locations
– Glacier shrinkage
• Multiple other lines of research prior to 1800s
– Ice cores
– Tree rings
– Pollen analysis
– Geologic evidence of ice ages, warm periods
How do we know climate is changing?
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Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment
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Increase in heat retained in ocean and atmosphere
• Slight increase (~2-4 degrees) in average global temperature by the end of the century
– More change at the poles
– Hotter summers, milder winters
– Warmer oceans
• More energy = more extreme weather– Hurricanes, blizzards, heat waves, wind storms
• Change in rain patterns– More precipitation but uneven distribution
– More droughts, floods
• Rising sea levels as ice melts
Likely Aspects of Climate Change
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Ecological NicheSet of environmental conditions which enable a species to survive and thrive. Combination of multiple factors:
Climate: temperature, precipitation, storm events
Physical: soil characteristics, elevation, aspect
Analogous to concept of terroir for wine making…
Change in climate => change in niche Animals can migrate to follow niches
Trees move much more slowly…
Relationship between Climate and Forests
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Change in climate => change in niche
Change in niche => existing forests come under stress
Increase in stress => vulnerability to other threats
disease, insects, fire, loss of biodiversity
Loss of forest => more CO2 in atmosphere
=> more climate change
Relationship between Climate and Forests
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• Warmer average temperatures
• Longer growing season
• CO2 fertilization effect
• Increased precipitation, changes in rainfall patterns
• More extreme weather (ice storm, wind storm, drought, flood)
• Changes in soil moisture – wetter and drier seasons
• Increased insect/disease presence due to less winter die-off
Net result is general increase in ecosystem stress, resulting in increased forest vulnerability to other threats
Likely changes in forest ecosystems
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• Northward migration of some tree species
• Changes in forest species composition, succession
• Increased tree mortality, fire risk
• Increased spread of invasive species
• Loss of biodiversity, genetic resources, ecosystem
services
Likely forest ecosystem response
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Canada: ~397 million haUS: ~327 million haMexico: ~ 50 million ha
TOTAL: ~774 million ha
(~ 80 x area of Hungary)
North America forest extends from subtropical to boreal
Many different forest types, ecological conditions
Climate and Forests: North America
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Successful forest fire prevention => overstocked forests
• Overstocking causes stress
• Climate-related drought adds to stress
• Insects able to infest stressed forests
Result is greatly increased tree mortality, higher fire risk
Illustrates need for systems thinking, sustainability perspective
Relationship between Climate and Forests
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Impacts of Climate Change on European Forests and Options for Adaptation
European Forest Institute et al.
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• Changes in rainfall distributionWetter winters = flooding, wind damage, ice storms
Dryer, longer summers = more drought stress
• Warmer temperatures => increased pest problemsBark beetles, gypsy moth, Phytophthora
Increase insect, disease populations due to less winter die-off
Increased northern ranges
Climate Change and Ecosystem Response: Temperate Continental
Region
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Climate Change and Forest Response: Hungary
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Example: European beech in Hungary (C. Mátyás et al.)
• Beech at southern limit of range in Hungary
• Xeric limit: genetically determined dryness tolerance
• Northward shift in xeric limit could lead to complete loss
of beech, replacement with oak
• Permanent loss of genetic diversity
Climate Change and Forest Response: Hungary
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Climate Change and Forest Response: Hungary
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• Mitigation – reduce C emissions, increase C sequestration by growing forests
• Adaptation – manage forests to maintain health, reduce vulnerability
• Transformation – change society expectations, behaviors regarding what people want, need from forests – and what we are willing to give back
Strategies for Managing Forests in a Changing Climate
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Adaptive strategies are synergistic across large areas:
• More ecological niches to work with
• More resources (financial, intellectual) to work with
Argues for benefit to international cooperation
• Certainly at continental scale
• Also at global scale
Scale Matters
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Need for Action
Continue research to provide good foundation
Need to move beyond research to action
Adaptive management, systems thinking:Plan – Act – Measure – Analyze … and repeat
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Winter Summer
is coming…
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Thank you for your Attention
Andrew Gillespie
Twitter: @ajrgillespie1