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Climate Change & Water Resources: a review & French-Vietnamese related projects
Sylvain Ouillon1,2, Anny Cazenave1 1LEGOS, IRD / CNES, Univ. Toulouse, France – 2Univ. Science & Technology of Hanoi, Vietnam
Georges Vachaud
LTHE, CNRS, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, France
SEA-EU Net, STI Days, Bangkok, 21 January 2014
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Water on Earth
Source : USGS Ocean : 97% of the total volume of water on Earth (1340 billion km3)
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How do we know that the Earth’s climate is changing?
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The Earth is warming
Evolution of the Earth’s mean surface temperature since 1850
Increase of 0.85°C since 1900
IPCC AR5 : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; 5th Assessment Report; 30 Sept. 2013
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The ocean heat content is increasing
IPCC AR5
Increase in upper ocean (0-75 m) temperature : 0.1°C /decade since 1970
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Ice mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica
measured by space techniques
since 1990 (in Gt) mass loss acceleration since 10-15 years
Antarctica + Greenland
Antarctica
Greenland
Shepherd et al., 2012
IPCC AR5
Rate of ice sheet mass loss Greenland : 34 +/- 40 Gt/yr (1992-2001); 215 (+/- 60) Gt/yr (2002-2011)
Antarctica : 30 +/- 67 Gt/yr (1992-2001); 147 (+/- 74) Gt/yr (2002-2011)
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Global mean sea level measured by altimeter
satellites since 1993
Rate of sea level rise (1993-2013)
3.2 +/- 0.4 mm/yr
6.5 cm
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Sea level rise: a direct consequence of global warming
- Water mass addition
to the oceans from
land ice melt
(glaciers & ice sheets)
-Thermal expansion
of sea waters
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Mean Earth temperature : 15°C
If no ‘natural’ greenhouse effect (presence of water vapor + carbon dioxide) :
mean Earth’s temperature would be -18°C
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions by human activities
(fossil fuel burning, land use change/deforestation)
Additional greenhouse effect
Climate change
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How do we know that the main cause of global warming
is increased greenhouse gas emissions
by human activities ?
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Updated from S. Solomon, 2011
Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration
in the atmosphere
- - - -
Years before present
CO2:
400 ppmv
in 2012!
Present
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Relation between CO2 emissions and temperature change
IPCC AR5
Cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (Gigatons of carbon)
T
emp
erat
ure
an
om
aly
(°C
)
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State-of-the-art climate models reproduce well the increase in
Earth’s mean temperature ONLY IF they account for
anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gas emissions + aerosols)
Observed and computed Earth’s mean temperature since 1860
Obser Observed temperature
Computed with natural forcings only
All forcings
IPCC AR5
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Ocean acidification
Decrease of sea water pH by 0.1 since the beginning of the industrial era
( 26% increase in hydrogen ion concentration)
Estimate for 2100: pH ~7.8
Gattuso et al., 2011
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Will the Earth continue to warm?
YES!
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But how much will depend on future greenhouse gas emissions
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4 scenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions considered
by IPCC AR5 for the 21st century
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 6.0
RCP 8.5
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
4 RCP scenarios defined by their total radiative forcing by 2100:
- RCP 2.6 (2.6 Wm-2)
- RCP 4.5 (4.5 Wm-2)
- RCP 6.0 (6.0 Wm-2)
- RCP 8.5 (8.5 Wm-2)
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Maps of surface temperature change by the end of the 21st century
under 2 extreme warming scenarios
optimistic pessimitic
Mean temperature increase : 4°C
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Average percent change in mean precipitation for 2 extreme warming scenarios
RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
IPCC AR5
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Ensemble mean projections of regional sea level rise by the end of the 21st century
(regional variability due to non uniform thermal expansion & salinity
+ solid Earth effects )
metres
Global mean sea level rise
of 50 cm (medium warming scenario)
Global mean sea level rise
of 75 cm (high warming scenario)
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From Nicholls (2011)
Subsidence of coastal megacities during the past few decades
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Vertical crustal motions amplify the climate-related sea level rise
(if the ground is subsiding)
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Long-term climate change Many aspects of climate change will persist
for many centuries even if emissions of
greenhouse gases are stopped!
• 20% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere more than
1000 years
• Sea level will continue to rise for mainy centuries in response
to deep ocean warming and associated thermal expansion
• Ice sheet mass loss may become irreversible (Greenland)
sustained warming above a certain threshold may lead
to near-complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet
over a time scale of 1000 years ( 7 m of sea level rise)
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Impacts of CC on Water Resources
summary
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Source: Bates et al, 2008. Climate change and water resources, IPCC, Technical Paper VI
A constant acceleration of water cycle during the 20th century
Increase in precipitation in high N latitudes, decrease from 10°S to 30°N
Increasing frequency of heavy precipitation events & flood catastrophes X2
Increase in global runoff by 4% since 1950s
Dry areas X 2, and decline of water storage in glaciers
Sea level rise (higher impact of storm surges & floods, erosion, salinization)
Ocean acidification
… to be considered with other anthropogenic impacts
Increase in population and water needs
Increase in irrigated areas: +2%/year from 1960s (irrigation=70% of needs)
Decline of water quality (because of agricultural & industrial activities)
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Changes in extremes based on multi-model simulations from 9 global coupled climate models in 2080–2099 relative to 1980–1999 for the A1B scenario.
Top: precipitation intensity (defined as the annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days) Bottom: dry days (defined as the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days) Stippling denotes areas where at least 5 of the 9 models concur in determining that the change is statistically significant. The changes are given in units of standard deviations. (Bates et al 2008, IPCC)
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Large-scale relative changes in annual runoff for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. White areas are where less than 66% of the ensemble of 12 models agree on the sign of change, and hatched areas are where more than 90% of models agree on the sign of change (Milly et al., 2005) – IPCC 2008
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Impacts on water resources: Forecasts
+ Enhanced evaporation, Increasing variability & extremes:
droughts & floods, typhoons (TBD)
+ Sea level rise (higher impact of storm surges & floods, erosion)
+ Ocean acidification
+ Necessary changes in agriculture, water infrastructure & management
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Exemples in Asia & actions in Vietnam
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Two main aspects
1- Sea level rise, combined with groundwater pumping, yielding in particular to - Low land submersion - Salt intrusion in groundwater
2- Extreme hydrometeorologic events, yielding in particular to : - Flooding of metropole areas - Erosion of banks resulting in very high sediment concentration and degradation of river quality
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IPCC estimate by 2100: + 0,5 m to + 0,8m + subsidence (groundwater pumping etc) Vietnam: coastline = 3200 km
In Vietnam, threats on the Red River & Mekong deltas (between 1 to 3 m above present sea level) 16 millions inhabitants in Red River Delta + 20 millions inhabitants in the Mekong Delta Loss of the most fertile areas (rice fields)
Sea level rise: storm surges, erosion, threats on deltas
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Extreme hydrologic event, flooding of metropoles
Hanoi
Bangkok 2011
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Extreme hydrologic event, banks erosion and sediment transport
The most important impact is the degradation of river quality due to adsorption, release and biotransformation of contaminants by sediments , with direct effects on - human health, with high mortality risk for children - aquatic life and biodiversity
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Typical sources of contamination
Nutrients and pharmaceuticals from urban sewage resulting from a lack of water treatment plants Example Hanoi : nearly 1 Million m3/day, only 20% treated
Pesticides and fertilizers from agricultural runoff, in connexion with very strong increase of use
Metals and organic pollutants from industries (metallic, painting, textile, ..)
in Vietnam
14
262
0
100
200
300
1950 1965 1980 1995 2010
kg
fe
rtil
ise
r.h
a -1
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… with a strong impact on coastal zones eutrophication, acidification, decline of marine resources
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Suggested action plans
In order to advise city planners, governmental offices and
stakeholders, an in depth knowledge concerning the impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle, with consequences on sea level rise, flooding, contamination of surface waters, ecotoxicological effects and degradation of aquatic life should be acquired.
Two complementary approaches
1- International collaboration of pluridisciplinary teams through joint
programmes of Research such as HORIZON 2020
2- Training young scientists, engineers and technicians
Let’s see two examples:
CARE in HoChiMinh city & USTH in Hanoi
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CARE – Asian Centre for Water Research
A joint initiative of RESCIF to set up a
Flagship Research Centre
on the topic of water in SOUTH EAST ASIA
Implementation of a 600m2
building on the campus of
Technical University
HoChiMinh City to develop
research capacities on the
Mekong Delta and Saigon
River in partnership with
Grenoble University,
Polytechnics Lausanne,
Polytechnics Montreal, IRD
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-Promote joint research in
areas of , energy, nutrition
and food security for the
development of emerging
countries
-Foster the training of young
engineers in the most advanced
technologies through joint
education programmes and
exchange of researchers and
students
-Implement innovative, targeted
and sustainable partnerships
between technological
universities and partnerships
with companies interested in
developing production
14 French–language universities
Africa: Morocco, Burkina, Senegal, Cameroon,
Europe: Switzerland, France, Belgium
Middle east and Asia: Lebanon, Vietnam
Americas: Canada, Haiti
www.rescif.net/en
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Main objectives: - Development of tools tailored to environmental monitoring - Assessment of environmental changes and associated risks - Adaptation of international findings to regional specificities - Transfer of information to government, industries and communities
CARE, Research Topics
-Hydrologic risks and
vulnerability induced by
climate changes
-Sediment transport and
contamination of rivers
-Impact of water pollution
on health (arsenic, urban
water for hospitals)
-Urban hydrology
Related to CC
-Occurrence of Typhoons
-Effects of sea level rise
on flooding and salt water
intrusion in delta
-River banks erosion
-Inundation
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CARE Resources
Human
50 persons involved,
including 8 full time
Material
High level standard of
equipments available at HCM
UT
ACTIVITIES
-Set up of program: autumn 2011 -1st selection of students spring 2012 -First set of exchanges of researchers: spring 2012 (4 visits in 2012) -Funds from Rhone-Alpes (F) and VNU (Vn) 2013 -Registration of VN students for Master (2) and PhD (1) in Grenoble -2nd selection of students and set of exchange of researchers in 2013 -Official inauguration of CARE, November 2013 -Set up of first research program (ARSENIC in Groundwater), Jan. 2014 -Development of MOOCS and short courses to be applied in 2014
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The Department of Water-Environment-Oceanography at the University of Science and Technology of Hanoi (USTH)
A Bachelor course since 2010
A Master course co-accredited by France & Vietnam since 2011
Participation of private companies (EDF-International, VEOLIA, CNR,…) to teaching
A technological platform (physics/chemistry & biology of the environment) since 2012
A PhD program to train the future Vietnamese Ass. Prof. in France (2010-20, ~60 grants)
A joint Research Institute on Water & Environment Sciences and Technologies since 2013
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A New Model University of Excellence: an international-based Curriculum
The teaching and diploma system follow the so-called Bologna Process (L/M/D) widely in use in the world:
USTH is the first public Vietnamese University to use the Bologna Process System of Diploma
All courses are taught in English (two months of intensive English at the beginning of the MSc lectures)
Master diploma are co-habilitated by French Universities and by USTH
License (Bachelor) in 3 years Master in 2 years (M1 and M2) Doctorate (PhD) in 3 years
3 (VN and Intl. Professors) 5 (3/4 French Prof, 1/4 Vietnamese) 8
Water-Environment-Oceanography (WEO) : MSc diploma delivered by Univ. Toulouse, Univ. Poitiers, Univ. Montpellier 2, INPT, INSA Toulouse
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Master degree in Water / Environment / Oceanography (WEO)
General purpose
Provide the students with strong transverse basis in
biology / ecology / physics / chemistry of water,
& project management, economy, laws
Focus on technologies such as
numerical modeling, ecological engineering,
hi-tech instrumentation, remote sensing
Stimulate creativity and innovation
Two specialities
Water Pollution & Treatment
Continental & Coastal Hydrosystems
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Joint Research Institute in Water / Environment / Oceanography (WEO)
Hydrology, Oceanography, Meteorology Marine environment and resources, Coastal processes, Soils, Ecology,
Disaster forecasting and warning
• Project IMER-STI-IRD on “Integrated Study of Sediment Transport in Red River
Delta and Adjacent Coastal Zones”, 2013-2017
• Project IRD-U.Toulouse-INPT-HUS/VNU-INPC on “Nutrient cycles and
Contaminants in WaterS in Southeast Asia”, 2013-2017
IRD, ULCO, Univ. Montpellier 2, Univ. Toulouse, Univ. La Rochelle
Inst. Marine Env. Resources, Space Techn. Inst. VAST, HUS-VNU, INPC
Water & Environment Technology Processes in water treatment, Organic (pesticides) & Inorganic pollutants
• International joint VN-FR UMI on Membranes (Montpellier 2, IET VAST)
Poitiers, Inst. Chimie CNRS, INSA Toulouse, INPT, ENGEES, Limoges
Inst. Env. Tech. VAST, Institute of Chemistry VAST
New SEA-EU partners WELCOME !!
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University of Science and Technology of Hanoi Department Water Environment Oceanography
http://www.usth.edu.vn/ [email protected]
CARE – Asian Centre for Water Research Flagship Research Centre
on the topic of water in SOUTH EAST ASIA
http://www.rescif.net/en [email protected] / [email protected]
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Thanks for your attention