THE GREATER FARGO–MOORHEAD
COMPREHENSIVE REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY
Tom Stellman • Caroline Alexander June 2015TIP Strategies, Inc.
Irving, TX – Economic Development Strategy
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN – Core City Action Strategy
Asheville, NC – Economic Development Strategy
August, GA – Regional Workforce Study & Strategy
Montgomery County, MD – Economic Development Strategy
Newport, RI – Economic Development Strategy
Abilene, TX – Economic Development Strategy
Massachusetts Development Authority – Defense Industry Diversification Strategy
Washington Military Alliance - Defense Industry Diversification Strategy
Delta Regional Authority – Regional Development Strategy
CURRENT PROJECTS
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81
Number of months until all jobs "regained"
1980 1974-1976
1981-1983
1990-1993 2001-20052007-2014
(May 2014 = 100.1)
78 months
RECESSIONS COMPARED
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted); NBER (recession dates); New York Times (format)
RECESSIONARY EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
PEAK EMPLOYMENT = 100
Cumulative Change in Employment Since the Beginning of the Great Recession
GEOGRAPHY OF RECOVERY
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Manufacturing
Trade, Transport, & Utilities
Government (all branches, incl. public education)
Prof. & Business Services
Educ. & Health Services (privately owned)
Financial Activities
Leisure & Hospitality
SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
TOTAL US NONFARM EMPLOYMENT SELECTED SECTORS
SECTOR’S SHARE OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, 1965 TO PRESENT (MARCH 2015, PRELIM.)
US OIL & GAS EMPLOYMENT
Sources: EMSI Complete Employment 2014.3
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN US OIL & GAS INDUSTRY, 2001-2014Employment in top 5 states and remainder of US
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Texas Oklahoma Louisiana North Dakota Colorado Remainder of US
CRUDE OIL PRICES
Sources: US Energy Information Administration
CRUDE OIL PRICES IN DOLLARS PER BARREL
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan 02, 2014 Apr 02, 2014 Jul 02, 2014 Oct 02, 2014 Jan 02, 2015
Top 10 Hard-to-Fill Jobs:
Skilled trades
Restaurant & hotel staff
Sales representatives
Teachers
Drivers
Accounting & finance staff
Laborers
IT staff
Engineers
Nurses
Source: ManpowerGroup's 2014 Talent Shortage Survey
US EMPLOYERS
SKILLS GAP
Source: ManpowerGroup – 2013 Talent Shortage Survey Research Results.
REASONS WHY US EMPLOYERS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY FILLING JOBS
14%
16%
18%
24%
27%
32%
33%
48%
Professionalism
Qualifications/certifications - professional
Qualifications/certifications - skilled trades
Lack of experience
Looking for more pay than is offered
Lack of available applicants/no applicants
Lack of workplace competencies (soft skills)
Lack of technical competencies (hard skills)
Manufacturing
Skills Gap?
DEMOGRAPHICS
AUTOMATIONPOLICIES
TRAINING
WAGESSCREENING
IMAGE
EDUCATION CULTURE
…to address a growing workforce gap between
available positions and qualified workers
…to enhance the region’s
economic development competitiveness
WHY THIS PROJECT?
11-COUNTY LABORSHED
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, TIP Strategies
Geography
Civilian labor
force Employed Unemployed
Unemployment
ra te
US 156,297,000 147,666,000 8,630,000 5.5
North Dakota 414,274 404,517 9,757 2.4
Minnesota 2,989,326 2,894,122 95,204 3.2
Fargo, N D-M N M SA 124,586 121 ,844 2 ,742 2 .2
11-County Laborshed 243,882 237,711 6,171 2.5
30,000+ JOB OPENINGS, 2014-19
Source: EMSI 2014.3 Class of Worker (QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees & Self-Employed)
TOTAL OPENINGS , 2014-2019
BY SKILL LEVEL
4,392
4,318
2,658
9,508
6,412
3,346
Low
Middle
High
New Jobs Replacement Jobs
FILLING THE JOBS
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (state and county labor market data
AVERAGE ANNUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
US
Midwest region
North Dakota
Minnesota
Fargo MSA
11-county laborshed
FILLING THE JOBS - CONTINUED
Source: Rough estimates calculated by TIP Strategies using 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (DP-03)
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES
63.8%69.5%70.2%
75.0%
76.2%72.0%
70.6%70.1%
68.0%67.6%67.4%66.7%
65.8%64.9%
63.8%63.1%
United StatesNorth Dakota
Minnesota
Fargo, ND-MN MSA
Cass County, NDClay County, MN
11-County Laborshed (combined)Grand Forks County, ND
Steele County, NDWilkin County, MN
Richland County, NDStutsman County, ND
Traill County, NDBarnes County, ND
Becker County, MNOtter Tail County, MN
FILLING THE JOBS - CONTINUED
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
POPULATION
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
Cass County, ND Clay County, MN
WHAT IF?
Reduced unemployment to 2.0?
Increased labor force participation rate to 76?
Grew labor force by 2% annually?
(historically, in-migration only +500 people)
+250 workers
+1,661 workers
+2,500 workers
REGIONAL CENTER
Source: LEHD
25,23485,712
Live and work
in Fargo MSA
11,398
Commute to jobs
in Fargo MSA from outside
Live in Fargo MSA
and commute to jobs
outside
Of the 110,946 workers that held jobs
in the Fargo MSA in 2011, slightly less
than one-quarter (23 percent) lived
outside the MSA.
Of the 97,110 Fargo residents
employed in 2011, about one in nine
(12 percent) commuted to jobs
outside the MSA.
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
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WAGE COMPARISON
Source: EMSI 2014.3 Class of Worker (QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees & Self-Employed)
MEDIAN HOURLY WAGE RATES BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUP
FARGO MSA WAGES PRESENTED IN THE CONTEXT OF US WAGE RANGE
HIGH-DEMAND OCCUPATIONS
Source: QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees & Self-Employed - EMSI 2013.4 Class of Worker
TOTAL OPENINGS , 2014-19
BY CAREER CLUSTER AND SKILL LEVEL
Career Cluster Annual Openings
Hospitality & Tourism 821
Business Management & Administration 764
Marketing 674
Health Science 509
Transportation, Distribution & Logistics 431
Finance 374
Manufacturing 363
Architecture & Construction 355
Human Services 335
Education & Training 316
Information Technology 132
Agriculture, Food & Natural Resources 107
Law, Public Safety, Corrections & Security 56
Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics 50
Government & Public Adminstration 33
Arts, Audio/Video Technology & Communications 25
Low Middle High
TOP 25 FIELDS OF STUDY
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) surveys.
571
496
466
309
308
253
249
230
200
191
160
127
125
122
121
117
115
109
108
102
100
99
98
97
95
Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse (51.3801)
Business Admin. and Mgmt. General (52.0201)
Liberal Arts and Sciences/Liberal Studies (24.0101)
Elementary Education and Teaching (13.1202)
Psychology, General (42.0101)
Biology/Biological Sciences, General (26.0101)
Accounting (52.0301)
Criminal Justice/Safety Studies (43.0104)
Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse (51.3901)
Social Work (44.0701)
Mechanical Engineering (14.1901)
English Language and Literature, General (23.0101)
Civil Engineering, General (14.0801)
Clinical Lab./Medical Tech. (51.1005)
Marketing/Marketing Mgmt. General (52.1401)
Communication, General (9.01)
Human Dev. and Family Studies, General (19.0701)
Electrical and Electronics Engineering (14.1001)
Construction Management (52.2001)
Art/Art Studies, General (50.0701)
Computer Science (11.0701)
Special Education and Teaching, General (13.1001)
Kinesiology and Exercise Science (31.0505)
Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other (30.9999)
Airline Pilot and Flight Crew (49.0102)
Award of <1 academic year
Award of at least 1 but <2 yrs.
Associate's degree*
Bachelor's degree
Advanced degree**
VISION: The Greater Fargo-Moorhead region is an
economically diverse employment center
with a strong pipeline of talent to support
current and future employers.
GOAL:To strengthen the regional workforce
system to support regional employers and
to address the gap between available
positions and qualified workers.
STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK
CULTIVATE: Strengthen the
pipeline of local talent to
support employers in the region.
ATTRACT:Enhance and
coordinate efforts to bring new talent to
the region.
BUILD: Develop a framework for financial
self-sufficiency and upward mobility for
workers in low-wage and
basic-skill jobs.
INNOVATE:Encourage the development of innovative solutions to address the
region’s workforce-
related challenges.
Retain more high school and college graduates
Work with employers to improve talent retention rates
Encourage more of the existing population to enter the
workforce
Improve the alignment of student career choices, training
resources, and industry needs
1. CULTIVATE
COMMUNITY 101 FOR COLLEGE STUDENTS
Part of student orientation
Highlights community and
region’s key assets
Provides information on
how/where to find activities
Encourages students to
establish roots
Image credit: Graduation by Andrew Schwegler via Flickr (CC BY-SA 2.0)
EMBRACE THE COLD!
Community-wide winter
carnival that draws visitors
Target internal and external
perceptions of the cold
Image credit: Adventure Magazine
Launch a campaign to build awareness of the opportunities in
Fargo.
Support employers with recruitment tools that many can access
and use.
2. ATTRACT
FRIENDS & FAMILY CAMPAIGN
Leverage extensive alumni
network
Engage community alumni with
intent to bring them home
Push information out about
community initiatives, job
opportunities, and alumni events
Hold events where high
concentration of alumni
Hold an annual event–a
“homecoming”–in Fargo
Create a more formal collaborative of nonprofits working with
low-income clients around income stability.
Increase access to and the supply of affordable housing.
Increase the number of childcare spots available for low-
income, working families.
Improve access to public transportation for low-income families.
3. BUILD
NON-PROFIT COLLABORATIVE
Align programs around a
common set of goals to
achieve financial stability &
self-sufficiency
Strengthen connections with
workforce training and
employers through partnerships
Share information, best
practices, and resources to
improve service deliveryTHRIVE
Foster the development and adoption of technology-based
solutions to meet the demand for low-wage jobs.
Engage local social entrepreneurs in resolving transportation,
housing, and childcare challenges.
4. INNOVATE
SOCIAL INNOVATION CHALLENGE
Transportation, childcare, affordable housing are common barriers
to employment
Organize a competition of multi-disciplinary teams to design
solutions to the problems
Image credit: Emerging Prairie
2905 San Gabriel St, Suite 205Austin, TX 78705
512.343.9113
www.tipstrategies.com
Image Credits :Austin_Texas by Ed Schipul via Flickr (CC BY-SA 20)
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
Steering Committee
Tim Beaton
Executive Director
Craig Whitney
President/CEO Jim Gartin
President
Sherri Thomsen
PresidentCharley Johnson
President/CEO
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
Thank You to Our Investors
• Dave Anderson, Sanford Health
• David Berg, American Crystal Sugar Company
• Anne Blackhurst, Minnesota State University Moorhead
• Dean Bresciani, North Dakota State University
• Jim Brownlee, City of West Fargo
• Donn Diederich, Industrial Builders, Inc
• Randy Johnson, Meinecke-Johnson Company
• Perry Lubbers, Trail King Industries, Inc.
• Bill Marcil, Forum Communications Company
• Matt Maslowski, Moorhead Economic Development Authority
• Tammy Miller, Border States Electric
• John Richman, North Dakota State College of Science
• Tim Sayler, Essentia Health
• Wendy Simek, O'Day Equipment, LLC
• Dave Stende, Eide Bailly LLP
• Pat Traynor, Dakota Medical Foundation
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
Strategy:
CULTIVATE
Strengthen the pipeline of local talent to support employers in the region.
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
CULTIVATE
Strengthen the pipeline of local talent to
support employers in the region.
Strategies:
• Retain more graduates from regional high schools
• Work with employers to retain talent in the region.
• Encourage existing population to enter the workforce.
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
Charley JohnsonPresident & CEO
FM Convention & Visitor’s Bureau
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
Strategy:
ATTRACT
Enhance and coordinate effortsto bring new talent to the region.
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
ATTRACT
Enhance and coordinate efforts
to bring new talent to the region.
Strategies:
• Launch a campaign to build awareness
of the opportunities in Fargo.
• Support employers with recruitment tools
that many can access and use.
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
Sher ThomsenPresident
United Way of Cass-Clay
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
Strategy:
BUILDDevelop a framework for financial
independence and upward mobility for workers in low-wage and basic-skill jobs
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
BUILD
Develop a framework for financial self-sufficiency
and upward mobility for workers in basic-skill jobs.
Strategies:
• Create more formal collaborative of nonprofits working
with low-income clients around income stability.
• Increase affordable housing.
• Increase childcare available for low-income, working families.
• Improve access to public transportation for low-income families.
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
Tim BeatonExecutive Director
FM Area Foundation
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
Strategy:
INNOVATE
Encourage the development of innovative solutions to address the
region’s workforce-related challenges.
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
INNOVATE
Encourage the development of innovative solutions to
address the region’s workforce-related challenges.
Strategies:
• Foster the development and adoption of technology-
based solutions to meet the demand for low-wage jobs.
• Engage local social entrepreneurs in resolving
transportation, housing, and childcare challenges.
.
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
Jim GartinPresident
GFM Economic Development Corporation
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
CULTIVATE
ATTRACT
BUILD
INNOVATE
Regional Workforce Strategy Summary
Collaborating to Support Regional Workforce Development
Steering Committee
Tim Beaton
Executive Director
Craig Whitney
President/CEO Jim Gartin
President
Sherri Thomsen
PresidentCharley Johnson
President/CEO