JPK
Gro
up
June 14-15 • Boston, MA
Collaborative Forecastingand Insights
Establish integrated business planning throughsynchronized forecasting processes
June 15, 8:30am
View presentation online at:
https://jpkgroupsummits.com/attendee3
Arik JohnsonFounder and Chairman at Aurora WDC
Arik Johnson is Chairman of Aurora WDC, the intelligence advisory firm he founded in
1995. After stepping aside as CEO in late 2009, today Arik serves as Managing Director
and lead architect at Aurora’s R&D lab, think tank network and intelligence policy institute,
the Center for Organizational Reconnaissance (COR). Arik is a Fellow of the Strategic and
Competitive Intelligence Professionals society and has chaired SCIP’s annual international
conference (2006), served on SCIP’s board of directors (2004 – 2006), won SCIP’s
Catalyst award (2005), and served as a chapter coordinator, as well as, trustee and
development committee chair of the CI Foundation.
Business Forecasting and Analytics Forum
Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Angles of Attack:Collaborative Forecasting, Analytics and Insights to Unite Strategy with Organizational Intelligence
Arik Johnson
Founder & ChairmanAurora WDC [AuroraWDC.com]
Managing DirectorCenters for OrganizationalReconnaissance [COR.vc]
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Aurora WDC
HistoricalContext
ProspectiveFuture
Understand
Uncertainties
Blind Spots and GAPsAurora WDC
Subject-Matter Expertise & Experience
Enables Planning to
Outthink/Outcompete Competitors
Acquire
A Clear Contemporary View of the Current
Market
Plan
Prediction of a Future StateHistorical Context + Contemporary View = Forecast of Trends for the Future
Clear Historical Context of the Past
Understanding Today (and 1-3 Years
Forward)
Current Macro and Micro View of the
Competitive Environment
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Strategy should be a
Response to Intelligence
Not the other way around…
What, exactly, IS “strategy”?
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Competitive Intelligence Analysis Failure: Diagnosing Individual Level Causes and Implementing Organisational Level Remedies by Fleisher & Wright
Abstract:It is anticipated that any Competitive Intelligence (CI) professional would want to perform the analysis task and execute their responsibilities successfully over time. Such competencies would normally come with added experience on the job, as should the ability to reduce the risk of failure by diagnosing potential pitfalls. This paper presents: (a) a unique four-level hierarchical model of analysis failure; (b) identification of common causes of failure at the individual level; (c) 10 key continua of CI analysis skills which we believe an analyst has to master to become competent in their work; and (d) guiding principles for an enlightened firm to follow if they wish to discharge their organisational level responsibility of reducing the potential for analysis failure. We believe that the issues raised in this paper are of significance and should ultimately contribute towards creating a more successful analysis function. This can only be of benefit to educators, practitioners and others who rely on skillful CI output to inform their decision making.
Journal of Strategic MarketingVolume 18, Issue 7, 2010Special Issue: Competitive Intelligence, Analysis & Strategy
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Strategic, Market & Competitive Intelligence has 3 Primary Operational Roles
Signals
of
Change
Strategic Choices
Influencing
Success
Likely Outcome of
Competitive
Battles
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by10
STOCHASM
The difference betweenwhat you think you know andwhat you actually know.
Intelligence lives in this chasm, creating new knowledgeAND
disputing false assumptions.
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
U.S. Intelligence CommunityFailed to Evolve
Unexpected new threats from non-traditional enemies like al Qaeda emerged on the geopolitical stage in the vacuum of America's return to international economic, political and cultural hegemony after the end of the Cold War.
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Three Key Business Trends Driving Business Strategy Evolution
Human Capital & Enterprise CollaborationEveryone in the Firm becomes a Virtual Member of the Intelligence Apparatus, Better Engagement by Rank & File, Shared Visibility of Issues & Actions
Corporate Governance & Risk OversightBoard-level Priority Ensuring Reliability of Management’s Earnings Forecast & Assessing Risks to Status Quo
Business Model Disruption & Value InnovationPredicting the Outcome of Competitive Battles by Anticipating Changes in Product/Strategy Dynamics
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
In selling the Xiaomi smartphone, Xiaomi employs a strategy that is very unlike other smartphone makers such as Samsung and Apple. Lei Jun, Xiaomi CEO, said that the company prices the phone almost at bill-of-material prices, without compromising the component quality and performance compared to other premium smartphones. To profit from the narrow margin, Xiaomi sells a model for up to 18 months instead of the short 6 months used by Samsung to profit from the fall in the costs of components that occurs over time. It also profits by selling phone-related peripheral devices, smart home gadgetry, in addition to apps, online videos and themes. In the long term, the company sees the hardware sales just as a means of delivering software and services, as explained by Hugo Barra, "We are an internet and a software company much more than … a hardware company.
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Managers caught in this kind of competition almost universally say they dislike it and wish they could find a better alternative. They often know instinctively that innovation is the only way they can break free from the pack. But they simply don’t know where to begin.
Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne
Competing head-to-head can be cutthroat especially when markets are flat or growing slowly.
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Knowing Why They Buy“Companies may know a good deal about their customers. They know nothing, as a rule, about their non-customers -- the people who should be their customers but buy from someone else. Why do they do that? And yet it is the non-customer where important changes always start first.”
Look Beyond the Current Business
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Success Breeds Complacency
“It is a classic conundrum for business titans: How much money and attention should be focused on a new, but growing, operation that is far less profitable than the core business?”
- Prof. Clayton Christensen, The Innovator's Dilemma
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Disruptive Technology
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Disruptive Innovation StrategySustaining InnovationsBetter Products Brought to Established Markets
Low-End DisruptionsTarget Overshot Customers with a Lower Cost Business Model
New-Market DisruptionCompete Against Nonconsumption
DifferencePerformanceMeasure
TimeNonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts
Performance
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Customer Demand & Signals of Change
1. Non-Market Contexts: External Forces (Government, Economics, etc.) Increasing or Decreasing Barriers to Innovation
2. Undershot Consumers: Opportunities for Up-Market Sustaining Innovations
3. Overshot Consumers: Opportunities for Low-End Disruption, Shifting Profits by Specialist Displacements (Modularity) and the Emergence of Rules
4. Non-Consumers: Opportunities for New Market Disruptive Growth
Established Companies almost always
Lose to Disruptive Innovators
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Customers “Hire” Products to Do
“Jobs” for Them
Concentrate Less on
What Customers “Want” and
More on What Customers “Need”
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by24
Decision / Selection Map is used to identify:• Customer needs/wants• Which competitor represents the most serious threats now and potentially
in the future• Which strengths should be emphasized• Which of our weaknesses will competitors exploit• What new needs/wants should we try to create
Probability / Impact Grid is used to:• Ensure goals are aligned to those of key stakeholders• Highlight those competitor moves that the company should take action to
counter and monitor• Create group consensus on the potential contribution that this planning
effort would have, and the likelihood that we could make it happen
Why Wargames?
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Wargame Example - Strategic
Ch
23.
25
Improve ROI of our R&D
Determined our risk profile was substantially more conservative than our competitors, and that this was unexploitable.
Consolidated R&D under the corporate umbrella, ending internal conflict for resources and reducing inefficiencies.
Group consensus on using consistent measures to track market opportunities and consumer trends.
Deliverables
Purpose
Industry Consumer Products
Company size Fortune 500
Planning level Strategic
Wargame Purpose Company was looking to increase throughput from their R&D unit, which was not keeping pace with competitors
on launching products.
Wargame Outcome The wargame showed that it wasn’t just one problem that was slowing things down. As expected, the company’s
risk profile played a part. What also became apparent was that R&D had no clear reporting format and ended up
working on many projects that were either not likely to go to market, or were pet projects with little or no market
opportunities. Understanding who their true stakeholders were, the BUs, was a key learning that lead to change.
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Wargame Example - Tactical
Ch
23.
26
Industry Pharma/Biotech
Company size Fortune 500
Planning level Tactical
Wargame Purpose Company was launching a product with new MOA into a crowded market. They were looking for ways to counter
messaging from existing competitors before they launched. They also wanted projections on how long it would take
to capture significant share.
Wargame Outcome What the game showed was that it was unlikely that their new product was going to displace any of the existing
products, given the safety profile and demonstrated efficacy. They were unwilling to play with price too much, and
decided to delay launch. The competitor that “won” the game had production issues in the real world, and this lead
to the company purchasing the “winning” product at a bargain.
Prepare for launch
Determined customer was more price sensitive than previously thought.
Wargame “opened eyes” about home team being significantly behind competitors in terms of safety and efficacy.
EWI tracking set up because of the game allowed them to respond quickly when chief competitor ran into problems.
Purpose
Deliverables
The Market Team took assessment of their more significant needs, by Customer group, and decided which were Drivers (more is better), and which were Satisifers.
The critical point here is that when you over-deliver on a particular need or want, you face diminishing returns and you don’t have the resources to address those issues that the customer has validated as Drivers.
They then ranked each of the Competitors on how well they meet these needs today, from the Customer’s perspective.
The Competitor’s job was to move the needle on these performance metrics.
Unsatisf’d Satisfied Happy
Need or Want
Customer
Groups Comp 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Home
Cost Institutional R1
Corporate R2
Post-secondary R3
Home
Portfolio Profile Finance heads R1
Actuaries R2
R3
Benefit Admins Home
Ease of Client Uptake /
Application Processors R1
Regulators R2
Service Agents R3
Home
Convenience Plan Members R1
Service Agents R2
R3
Home
Marketing Plan members R1
Retire admins R2
R3
Home
Services / Support Beneficiaries R1
Service agents R2
R3
After Action Sample: Using a
Decision / Selection Map
27
This critical tool helps the competitor teams clarify the most important needs and wants of their various customers groups.
27
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
After Action Sample:
Key Issues and Outcomes
Key Issue Competitor Will… Our Response
Defend lack of customer service data
Competitors message this issue to mitigate launch
• We will set up feedback loop for representatives and customer account team to gauge impact of lack of time-series data at launch; share best practices on how to handle
• Develop rep response indicating that several other recent product launches did not have time-series data at launch
Messaging • Tout their longevity in the product class.
• Claim our product is “too radical,” untested, barely passing regulatory review
• 5 successful beta clients• Rivals products have had negative returns for 5 years cumulative • Educate on what is required and how to manage• Can utilize heavier social media communication, particularly via our large
FaceBook and Twitter presence
Competitor Increase in Ad Spend
We expect that the incumbents will increase their spend in an effort to lock up key institutional clients
• Leverage consumer demand for new retirement options• Maximize the impact of the news event around the availability of a new
class of product
Feet on the Ground and Selling
We expect at approval that there may be some financial options data that we won’t be permissible in promotion.
• Right-size the new prods team to a competitive size • Via the Blue Guide can we share product data that is still under review• Ability to communicate regularly with speakers via intel network wiki on
relevant product data
The issues highlighted below were derived from our Contribution / Feasibility Grid exercise.
28
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Contribution / Feasibility Grid Example
• The following 2 slides show an example of how we begin the Planning Round, the most important component of a wargame.
• Everyone is brought back to the main room, where as a plenary group, we discuss the various competitor moves, and more importantly, the actions that you should take to proactively disrupt them.
• Once the group has reached consensus on what these scenarios are, the Sponsors meet to select those that they feel are most impactful and the teams head back out to the break-out rooms to develop Action or Contingency Plans to deal with them.
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Scenario # Scenario Title Feasibility Contribution
1 Disruptive low cost systems for WHO become a catalyst 75 2
2 Chief competitor drops price significantly ahead of schedule 25 3
3 Development of non-invasive solution 50 2
4 ABC seeks additional indication 25 4
5 FDA certification lost for plant in Ireland 75 1
6 Black box warning issued for competitor’s product in this therapy 50 2
7The Street expects us to gain additional indication within 3 yrs and we deliver 25 6
8 We convince customers that we are a front-line therapy 10 3
9 ABCs looses litigation to XYZ 50 3
10Healthcare reform makes price more important than function impacting our products 80 5
11 ABC acquires XYZ 10 3
12 ABC partners with DEF for worldwide distribution 20 2
13 Competitor locks in large healthcare network essentially freezing us out 50 ?
14 DEF acquires local India company 70 1
Contribution / Feasibility Grid
The above table has been truncated and sanitized to provide an example of what the exercise might look like. Those that are highlighted were selected for planning activities.
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Feasibility
ContributionCode
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0% 75%
7
13
31
98
23
33b
22
6
11
12
24
25
27 28
3
19
18
45 20
1
5
2
4a
29
25% 50% 100%
32
33a
16
1715
2130
34
26
?
14a
14b
10b
10a
The Grid
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by32
Dr. Craig S. Fleisher
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Related Techniques
Scenario Analysis
Competitor Analysis
Blindspot Analysis
Johari Windows
Financial Ratio / Statement Analysis
STEEP and Industry Analysis
Executive Profiling / Shadowing
Value Chain Analysis
Supply Chain Analysis
SWOT Analysis
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Reconnaissance Roles in Value Chain of Every Customer Offer
Pricing
Buy, Build or Partner
Operational Metrics
BusinessModel & Case
SalesProcess
Thought Leaders
Market Requirements
MarketSizing
MarketingPlan
Product Roadmap
Awareness Bldg. Plan
Market Research
Market Problems
Distinctive Competence
Product Performance
Customer Acquisition
Positioning
Customer Retention
LaunchPlan
Product Contract
Innovation
Market Messaging
Channel Training
Win/Loss Analysis
Competitive Battle Cards
EventSupport
Collateral & Sales Tools
Presentations & Demos
WhitePapers
User Personas
“Special”Calls
Release Milestones
AnswerDesk
Technology Assessment
Competitive Analysis
Lead Generation
Buyer Personas
Win-Loss
Market Analysis
Product Strategy
Program Strategy
Product Planning
Quantitative Analysis
Channel Support
SalesReadiness
Stra
tegi
c Tactical
Channels Analysis
Life Cycle Strategy
Capabilities & Resources
Supplier Analysis
Sales Training
Sales Automation
MarketSegments
Sell Against
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Era of Asymmetric Interpretation [Reconnaissance]Asymmetric Interpretation Depends on Both Decisive & Incisive Sensing
Incisive
Scanning for Trends, there may be no Decision made
Historical Patterns & Anomalies
Implications for the Reader
Bottom-Up Exposition
Driven by Trends
Product is Observation/Commentary
Emergent & Skeptical
Open Source
Decisive
Frame of Reference is the Decision
Compares Options & Outcomes
Recommendations & Trust
Top-Down Imposition
Driven by Issues
Product is Decision/Action
Factual & Hypothetical
Confidential & Proprietary
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Asymmetric Interpretation Engages the Entire Workforce in Collaborative Sensing to Anticipate and Act on Industry Change
Signals
of
Change
Strategic Choices
Influencing
Success
Likely Outcome of
Competitive
Battles
Why Reconnaissance?
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by37
Feel free to ask for help:
Email: [email protected]
Phone: +1-608-630-4242
Twitter: @ArikJohnson
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/ArikJohnson
Skype: ArikJohnson
Web: www.IntelCollab.com & www.AuroraWDC.com
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Collaborative
Insights Team
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Observer Collaborator Provocateur
TASKING COLLECTION DISSEMINATIONANALYSIS
People &
Culture
Methods &
Systems
Products &
Services
Mission &
Priorities
Intel Team Audit
Delphi Interviews with Key Executive Clients
Enterprise-wide Recognition of Intel Value by the Workforce
SME Profiling / OSINT Intel Fitness Assessments, Team Fundamentals & TrainingHUMINT / Willingness to
share/contribute
Ability to Protect Confidential IP, Elicitation Across the Workforce
Market Research Derivative / Ad-Hoc
Client-Driven / Defined
Systematic / Initiative / Metrics
Stick-fetching / Service Bureau / Responsive
More Intuitive, KIT & KIQ-driven
“Consigliere” / G2 Strategic Advisor
Competitor Activity & Plans (Reactive)
Market & Industry Trends (Defensive)
Scenarios, Futures, Disruptions (Offensive)
OSINT Self-Service (Email, Google)
SME Nets, Ad-Hoc Field HUMINT, Portals (Intranet/SharePoint)
Crowdsourcing, Mobile, SME Nets Formalized
Free Subscriptions, Google Alerts, SharePoint
Network Hub, Hand-Off to Execs
Invited to Decision Forums, Ability to Tap SME Nets “at will” with Success
Unstructured Known Needs Convenient, Limited Clients
Internal / External Mix of Some Key SBU’s
Systematic, Real-time Problem-Solving, Enterprise-wide
Asking Better Questions
Intel Community, Internal & External
SWOT, Industry, Five Forces, Competitor Financials -Reactive
Benchmarking, Win/Loss, STEEP, 4Cs - Proactive
Scenarios & Simulations, Value Chain & Business Model -Predictive
Reports / Alerts / Profiles
Summarized Situational, Market & Industry Analyses
Interactive, Business Performance Focused, Drives Problem-Solving
Situational Assessment
Early Warning, Strategic Issues, Key Players
Balanced Scorecard, and Other BPM-driven Applications
Client Definition, Push-Demand Generated
Client Fitness
Pull-Demand Action
Email, Asynchronous
Intranet / Portal
Real-Time, Two-Way Persistent Apps
Newsletters, Key Players
Events, Issues & Decision Support
Early Warning, Detection & Anticipation of Industry Change
Mostly Push, Basic Reporting
Push / Pull “Balancing Act”
Client-Pull, Customized to Individual Preferences and Needs
Who?
How?
What?
Why?
What? So What? Now What?
Roadmap 3-Phases of Readiness
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Training
Research
Systems
Three (3) Keys to Unlock
Intelligence Potential
Key Intelligence Topics &
Questions Development
Scenarios, Simulations, & Early Warning
Professional & Program
Development Roadmaps
Technology, Industry,
Competitor, & Customer Analysis
Profiling Engine of
Key Players
Storage & Retrieval of Historical
Intelligence
External Secondary
Awareness & Monitoring
Map & Manage
Internal Source Networks
Human Source
Universe for Elicitation
Analytical Methodology
& Tool Selection
Intelligence Project
& Program Design
Business Problem
Diagnostics
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
Performance
Driven
Organizational
Reconnaissance
Based on Performance
Management
Perspectives such as
the Balanced
Scorecard
43
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Powered by
What’s Next?
Leadership to Act isBased on Confidence
Intelligence Combats the Paralysis that Accompanies Uncertainty
Reconnaissance Transforms Your Workforce into a Force to be Reckoned With
Feel free to ask for help:
Email: [email protected]
Phone: +1 (608) 630-4242
Twitter: @ArikJohnson
LinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/in/ArikJohnson
Skype: ArikJohnson
Web: http://IntelCollab.com & http://AuroraWDC.com