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Page 1: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Coming Out of Nowhere

Page 2: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

Coming Out of Nowhere

The State of Florida The Candidates The Campaign The Results

Page 3: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The State of Florida

Race/Ethnicity 76.6% White 15.4% Black 2.3% Asian 20.6% Hispanic

Occupation 39.3% Blue Collar

60.7% White Collar

Median Income $47.4k in state $51.4k in U.S.

Partisanship R +2, PVI

’08 Presidential Vote

Obama, +2.5%

Page 4: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Table 8.1 Party Affiliation of Florida Voters, 1986–2010

Page 5: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Candidates: Democrat Kendrick Meek

Occupation

Law Enforcement

Political Experience

House of Representatives, 2003-11

Florida Senate, 1998-2002

Florida House of Representatives, 1994-1998

Page 6: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Candidates: Republican Mark Rubio

Occupation Attorney

Political Experience

Speaker, Florida House of Representatives, 2007-09

Florida House of Representatives, 2000-09

Page 7: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Candidates: Independent Charlie Crist

Occupation Attorney

Political Experience

Governor of Florida, 2007-11

Attorney General of Florida, 2003-07

Education Commissioner of Florida, 2001-03

Florida State Senate, 1992-98

Page 8: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

Figure 8.1 Rubio vs. Crist vs. Meek Polling Averages, 2010

Page 9: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Table 8.2 Campaign Finance Data for Florida Senate Campaigns, 2004–2010

Page 10: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Table 8.3 Voter Characteristics and Senate Preferences in Florida, 2010

Page 11: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Table 8.4 Opinion of Political Conditions and Senate Preferences, 2010

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Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Crist’s “Independence”

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Page 13: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Crist’s “Integrity”

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Page 14: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Crist’s “Vetoed”

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Page 15: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Crist’s “What Do We Really Know?”

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Page 16: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Crist’s “Crossroads”

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Page 17: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Crist’s “What’s Right”

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Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Crist’s “Cross the Line”

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Page 19: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Crist’s “Best of Both”

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Page 20: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Crist’s “Line in the Sand”

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Page 21: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Rubio’s “Dream”

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Page 22: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Rubio’s “Kids”

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Page 23: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Rubio’s “Most Important”

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Page 24: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Rubio’s “Accident”

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Page 25: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Rubio’s “We All Know”

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Page 26: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Rubio’s “Honremos”

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Page 27: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Rubio’s “Padres”

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Page 28: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Rubio’s “Backwards”

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Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Meek’s “My Life”

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Page 30: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Meek’s “Only One”

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Page 31: Coming Out of Nowhere. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Coming Out of Nowhere  The State of Florida  The Candidates

The Results

Mark Rubio Charlie Crist Kendrick Meek0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2,645,743 1,607,549 1,092,936


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