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Competing Meats Situation and
Outlook
Chicken Marketing Seminar 2013
July 22, 2013, Coeur d’ Alene, Idaho
James G. Robb
Director
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USDA Members:
ERS
APHIS
GIPSA
NASS
WAOB
AMS
Associate Members:
AFBF
ASI
NCBA
NPB
CME-Group
Canadian Consortium
Noble Foundation
CoBank
TCFA
CWB
TCU
29 land Grant Universities:
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Topics: Major Market Drivers…
• Drought – Crops and More
• Consumer Demand – Beef and Pork
• International Trade Comments
• Pork Complex
• Beef and Cattle
• Turkey
USDA Data Sources – NASS, AMS, FAS, and ERS
All Forecasts – LMIC
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Drought –
Lingering But
Greatly Improved
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US RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITIONPercent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May Jul Sep
Percent
Avg.2007-11
2012
2013
Data Source: USDA-NASS
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U S TOTAL CORN SUPPLY AND PRICECrop Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Bil. Bushels
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
$ Per Bushel
Supply
Price
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
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US Consumer Demand
Beef and Pork
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RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEXFirst Quarter, Using CPI 1990=100
10095 94
86 8783 86
75 77 7680 80
83 83
9187 85 85
82 81
7477 80 80
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Index Value
Data Source: LMIC
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RETAIL PORK DEMAND INDEXFirst Quarter, Using CPI 1990=100
100100 100
9388 87 86 85
9396 94 93 92
8995
8884 83 83
86
7681 81 82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Index Value
Data Source: LMIC
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International
Trade
Comments
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U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTSAs a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Percent
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Forecasts by LMIC
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U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTSCarcass Weight, Monthly
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS
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U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETSCarcass Weight, Monthly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mil. Pounds
Japan
Canada
Mexico
South
Korea
Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS
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U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTSCarcass Weight, Annual
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Bil. Pounds
Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
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Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
U S BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTSCarcass Weight, Annual
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Bil. Pounds
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FEEDER CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICOWeekly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
JAN APR JUL OCT
Thou. Head
Avg.2007-11
2012
2013
Data Source: USDA-AMS & APHIS
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U S PORK EXPORTSAs a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual
0
5
10
15
20
25
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Percent
Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
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U S PORK EXPORTSCarcass Weight, Monthly
300
350
400
450
500
550
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
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U S PORK EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETSCarcass Weight, Monthly
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mil. Pounds
Japan
Canada
Mexico
Russia
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
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U S PORK EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETSCarcass Weight, Monthly
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mil. Pounds
Japan
South
Korea
Hong
Kong
China-
Mainland
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
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Hogs/Pork
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PIGS PER LITTERQuarterly
7.2
7.7
8.2
8.7
9.2
9.7
10.2
10.7
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Head
Data Source: USDA-NASS
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JUNE 1 MARKET HOGSU.S. Inventory
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Mil. Head
Data Source: USDA-NASS
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COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTIONQuarterly
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Avg.2007/11
2012
2013
2014
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
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WHOLESALE PORK LOIN PRICES1/4 Inch Trim, Vacuum Sealed, Weekly
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2007-11
2012
2013
Data Source: USDA-AMS
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WHOLESALE PORK BELLY PRICESSkin-on, 14-16 Pounds, Weekly
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2007-11
2012
2013
Data Source: USDA-AMS
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Cattle and Beef
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TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLEU.S., January 1
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Mil. Head
1938-49
1949-58
1958-67
1967-79
1979-90
1990-04
2004-13
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
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Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
JANUARY 1 TOTAL COW INVENTORYU.S., Annual
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Mil. Head
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BEEF PRODUCTION
vs. CATTLE INVENTORYInventory on January 1, U.S.
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Mil. Head
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Bil. Pounds
Commercial Beef Production
Total Cattle Inventory
Data Source: USDA-NASS
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COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTIONQuarterly
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Avg.2007/11
2012
2013
2014
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
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ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICESSouthern Plains
55
75
95
115
135
155
175
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
$ Per Cwt
500-600lbSteerCalves
700-800lbFeederSteers
FedSteers
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Forecasts by LMIC
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Data Source: USDA-AMS
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2007-11
2012
2013
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BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUEChoice 600-900 Lbs. Carcass, Weekly
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2007-11
2012
2013
Data Source: USDA-AMS
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WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICESFresh, 90% Lean, Weekly
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2007-11
2012
2013
Data Source: USDA-AMS
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RTC TURKEY PRODUCTIONQuarterly
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Avg.2007/11
2012
2013
2014
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
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TURKEY PRICESNational Hens, 8-16 Pounds, Weekly
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
Cents Per Pound
Avg.2007-11
2012
2013
Data Source: USDA-AMS
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Thank You!
www.lmic.info