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The Complexity ExperienceAn introduction to modeling and simulation of complex systems for cities
Michel MORVAN – Chairman, The CoSMo Company
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COMPLEX SYSTEMS
HIERARCHICAL
DYNAMICALLY COUPLED
HETEROGENEOUSMULTI-SCALE
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WHAT IS TRUE IN BIOLOGY IS ALSO TRUE FOR OTHER DOMAINS
HIERARCHICAL
DYNAMICALLY COUPLED
HETEROGENEOUSMULTI-SCALE
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TWO CRITICAL POINTS
Complex systems modeling
Complex systems simulation
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TWO CRITICAL POINTS
Complex systems modeling
How to run simulations on complex systems ?
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Real Estate
Water Supply System
PopulationWaste Water
Treatment
Transport System
Smart Grid
Biofuel Production
Energy System
Waste Treatments
Food & Goods
Renewable Energies
Logistics
Quality of life
THE EXAMPLE OF SYSTEMS IN A CITY
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HOW WE TEND TO SEE IT
Real Estate
Water Supply System
Population
Transport System
Smart Grid
Biofuel Production
Energy SystemWaste
TreatmentsFood & Goods
Renewable Energies
Logistics
Quality of life
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SIMPLIFICATION
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IF YOU DON’T GO THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS…
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… YOU WON’T DISCOVER THE WONDERFULL OPPORTUNITIES OFFERED BY COMPLEX SYSTEMS MODELING!
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THE SANTA FE INSTITUTE MOTTO
FROM SIMPLICITY TO COMPLEXITY!
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TWO CRITICAL POINTS
How to model complex systems ?
Complex systems simulations
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CHAOTIC BEHAVIOUR
STRUCTURAL UNPREDICTIBILITY
STUDY THEM VIA SIMULATION
WHY DO WE NEED SIMULATION ?
COMPLEX SYSTEM ARE ALMOST UNPREDICTABLE
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EMERGENT PHENOMENA
SYSTEM RESILIENCY / ADAPTABILITY
ROBUSTNESS / VULNERABILITY
MANAGE AND UNDERSTAND CASCADING EFFECTS
WHY CAN WE DO WITH SIMULATION ?
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THE NEED OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS SIMULATION
Resilience tests
Optimization
Sensitivity analysis
EX : Test and improve emergency plans, optimize crisis management CAPEX and OPEX
EX : Optimize the maintenance of a big energy network, evaluate and reduce the environmental impact of a new infrastructure, define the optimal configuration of a complex multi-modal transport network or supply chain.
EX : Test and improve the robustness of a supply chain (ensure continuity of service) , improve the robustness of critical systems (water networks in refinery plants)
Testing ScenariosEX : Measuring the impact of urban master plans on a set of different KPIs such as GHG emissions, congestion, …
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WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF NEW INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS ON THE CITY OF
VERSAILLES ?
TESTING SCENARIOS – COSMO + ESRI
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Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeLAND USE MODEL
DISCTRICTS, AREAS, BUILDINGS
NEW BUILDINGS & INFRASTRUCTURE
OCCUPATION RULES
HOW IS THE LAND USED AND WHAT RULES DEFINE IT ?
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Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeTRANSPORT NETWORK MODEL
ROADS
PUBLIC TRANSPORTSGHG DIFFUSION RULES
NOISE
HOW DOES THE TRANSPORTATION NETWORK IS ORGANIZED AND HOW DOES IT WORK ?
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INVESTMENT RULES
OFFER & DEMAND
DIFFERENT SOCIO-ECONOMICS NEEDS
HOW DOES INVESTMENT FIRMS BEHAVE ?
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?
?
?
HOW DOES THOSE THREE MODELS INTERACT ?
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STEP 1: BUILD CONCEPTUAL MODELS
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STEP 2: INSTANTIATE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC CITY
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REAL ESTATE PRICES
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POPULATION DENSITY
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EXISTING AND PLANNED INFRASTRUCTURE
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STEP THREE : RUN YOUR SIMULATION
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STEP FOUR : VISUALIZE AND ANALYZE THE RESULTS
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Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distributeEVIDENCE BASED DECISION
GHG evolution with public transport incentivisation
GHG evolution without public transport incentivisation
SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2
RUN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND CHOOSE THE MOST EFFECTIVE ONE