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Comprehensive Housing Market Overview
http://stevenwblack.com
January 15, 2011
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13 years Experience
background
http://stevenwblack.com
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Top-Producing Realtor in Napa
background
http://www.flickr.com/photos/johnjoh/1060267344/ http://stevenwblack.com
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Been through it personally
background
http://www.flickr.com/photos/smswigart/5147001743/ http://stevenwblack.com
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Driven by passion to help other Americans keep their homes
background
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bondomania/2636802659/ http://stevenwblack.com
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Why we’re hereWho is affectedHow it happens
What you can do
we’re going to talk about
http://stevenwblack.com
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the fine print
✴ Steven W. Black & Associates offers information on the state of the market and insight into what has worked in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented.
Steven W. Black & Associates offers information on the state of the market and insight into what has worked in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented.
*
http://stevenwblack.com
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the fine print
✴ Steven W. Black & Associates offers information on the state of the market and insight into what has worked in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented.
Steven W. Black & Associates offers information on the state of the market and insight into what has worked in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented.
*Don’t worry, we are happy to
o!er help specific to your situation after this presentation
http://stevenwblack.com
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/joao_trindade/4363157652
Why Are We Here?
http://stevenwblack.com
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how it SHOULD work
Change in financial situation
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
http://stevenwblack.com
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Loan ModificationChange in financial situation
how it SHOULD work
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
Priniciple reductionRestructuring
(interest rate )Enabled by Federal
Assistance programs
http://stevenwblack.com
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Loan ModificationChange in financial situation
how it SHOULD work
Priniciple reductionRestructuring
(interest rate )Enabled by Federal
Assistance programs
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
Done.Done.
http://stevenwblack.com
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Loan Modification Programs
http://stevenwblack.com
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loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
SMD Streamlined Modification
Process
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loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
Indy Mac Plan
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loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
Fannie Mae /Freddie Mac Plan
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loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
Hope for Homeowners Plan(HUD/FHA)
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loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
TARP(Troubled Assets Relief Program)
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loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
HAMP(Home Affordable Modification Plan)
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loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
SMD Streamlined Mod ProcessIndy Mac Plan
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac PlanHope for Homeowners Plan
TARPHAMP
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loan modification programs
http://stevenwblack.com
SMD Streamlined Mod ProcessIndy Mac Plan
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac PlanHope for Homeowners Plan
TARPHAMP
1
2
3
4
5
6
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How Did the Major Banks Do in 2009?
http://stevenwblack.com
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wells fargo
http://stevenwblack.com
500,000 modifications in 2009
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
*
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wells fargo
http://stevenwblack.com
500,000 modifications in 200910,000 modifications per state
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
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wells fargo
http://stevenwblack.com
500,000 modifications in 200910,000 modifications per state
that’s 833 modifications per month
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
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wells fargo
http://stevenwblack.com
500,000 modifications in 200910,000 modifications per state
that’s 833 modifications per month58 counties in California
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
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wells fargo
http://stevenwblack.com
500,000 modifications in 200910,000 modifications per state
that’s 833 modifications per month58 counties in California
172 per county every month
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
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wells fargo
http://stevenwblack.com
500,000 modifications in 200910,000 modifications per state
that’s 833 modifications per month58 counties in California
172 per county every month
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
6% of Eligible Loans
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bank of america
http://stevenwblack.com
650,000 modifications in 2009
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
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bank of america
http://stevenwblack.com
650,000 modifications in 200913,000 modifications per state
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
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bank of america
http://stevenwblack.com
650,000 modifications in 200913,000 modifications per state
that’s 1083 modifications per month
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
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bank of america
http://stevenwblack.com
650,000 modifications in 200913,000 modifications per state
that’s 1083 modifications per month58 counties in California
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
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bank of america
http://stevenwblack.com
650,000 modifications in 200913,000 modifications per state
that’s 1083 modifications per month58 counties in California
224 per county every month
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
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bank of america
http://stevenwblack.com
650,000 modifications in 200913,000 modifications per state
that’s 1083 modifications per month58 counties in California
224 per county every month
*
* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc)
4% of Eligible Loans
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How it Really Works
http://stevenwblack.com
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Change in financial situation
how it really works
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
http://stevenwblack.com
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Loan ModificationChange in financial situation
how it really works
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
Rarely happens~10% include
principlereduction
Where is TARP?Where is HAMP?...
http://stevenwblack.com
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Short Sale Loan ModificationChange in financial situation
how it really works
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
Rarely happens~10% include
principle reduction
Where is TARP?Where is HAMP?...
Bank drivesterms of sale
Multiple Offers
http://stevenwblack.com
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Short Sale Loan ModificationChange in financial situation
how it really works
ARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc.
Rarely happens~10% include
principlereduction
Where is TARP?Where is HAMP?...
Bank drivesterms of sale
Multiple Offers
Fore-
closure
!!!
Fore-
closure!!!
http://stevenwblack.com
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Who is Directly Affected?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billward/4461521050/ http://stevenwblack.com
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home purchased in the last 13 years
who is directly affected?
http://stevenwblack.com
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home purchased in the last 13 years
who is directly affected?
that’s back to 1997
http://stevenwblack.com
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refinanced in the last 13 years
who is directly affected?
that’s back to 1997
http://stevenwblack.com
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Who is Indirectly Affected?
http://stevenwblack.com
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who is indirectly affected?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/srogan/2284111398/
friends and family
http://stevenwblack.com
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communities
who is indirectly affected?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/familymwr/4841981088 http://stevenwblack.com
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local businessesschools
marriagestaxpayers
who is indirectly affected?
http://stevenwblack.com
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Everyone.
who is indirectly affected?
http://stevenwblack.com
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Who Profits?
http://stevenwblack.com
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bank profits
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10
InBillions
* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov)
*
http://stevenwblack.com
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bank profits
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10
InBillions
* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov)
*
http://stevenwblack.com
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bank profits
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10 6/10 9/10
InBillions
* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov)
*
$38 Billion533% annual increase
124% quarterly increase
$51 Billion292% annual increase
34% quarterly increase
http://stevenwblack.com
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How it Happens
http://stevenwblack.com
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pine st. napa
$55,000
$110,000
$165,000
$220,000
Oct 28, 2010Dec 10, 2010
2 Bedroom1 Bath~0.3 Acre
870 ft2
Reg
ular
Sal
e
http://stevenwblack.com
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pine st. napa
$55,000
$110,000
$165,000
$220,000
Oct 28, 2010Dec 10, 2010
2 Bedroom1 Bath~0.3 Acre
870 ft2
1150 ft2
Bank
ow
ned
Sold
by
RE
O
Reg
ular
Sal
e
* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected propertyhttp://stevenwblack.com
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pine st. napa
$55,000
$110,000
$165,000
$220,000
Oct 28, 2010Dec 10, 2010
2 Bedroom1 Bath~0.3 Acre
1150 ft2870 ft2
$50,100 devaluationfor a house 32% larger
in ~5 weeks
Bank
ow
ned
Sold
by
RE
O
Reg
ular
Sal
e
* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected propertyhttp://stevenwblack.com
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westwood neighborhood
$57,500
$115,000
$172,500
$230,000
Sept 4, 2009Sept 18, 2009
2 Bedroom1 Bath~0.12 Acre
880 ft2
Reg
ular
Sal
e
http://stevenwblack.com
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westwood neighborhood
$57,500
$115,000
$172,500
$230,000
Sept 4, 2009Sept 18, 2009
2 Bedroom1 Bath~0.12 Acre
880 ft2
760 ft2
Bank
ow
ned
Sold
by
RE
O
Reg
ular
Sal
e
* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected propertyhttp://stevenwblack.com
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westwood neighborhood
$57,500
$115,000
$172,500
$230,000
Sept 4, 2009Sept 18, 2009
2 Bedroom1 Bath~0.12 Acre
760 ft2
880 ft2
$81,800 devaluationin 14 days
Reg
ular
Sal
e
Bank
ow
ned
Sold
by
RE
O
* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected propertyhttp://stevenwblack.com
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autumn run neighborhood
$350,000
$700,000
$1,050,000
$1,400,000
Jan 31, 2007
Nov 12, 2010
Apr 10, 2
007M
ay 29, 2007
Oct 26, 2
007Oct 3
1, 2007
Nov 9, 2007
Apr 4, 2
008Apr 2
3, 2008
Mar 2
4, 2009
Mar 2
6, 2010
Reg
ular
Sal
e
May 11, 2
009Jul 2
9, 2009
http://stevenwblack.com
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autumn run neighborhood
$350,000
$700,000
$1,050,000
$1,400,000
Jan 31, 2007
Nov 12, 2010
Apr 10, 2
007M
ay 29, 2007
Oct 26, 2
007Oct 3
1, 2007
Nov 9, 2007
Apr 4, 2
008Apr 2
3, 2008
Mar 2
4, 2009
Mar 2
6, 2010
Reg
ular
Sal
e
May 11, 2
009Jul 2
9, 2009
Bank
ow
ned
* *
http://stevenwblack.com
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autumn run neighborhood
$350,000
$700,000
$1,050,000
$1,400,000
Jan 31, 2007
Nov 12, 2010
Apr 10, 2
007M
ay 29, 2007
Oct 26, 2
007Oct 3
1, 2007
Nov 9, 2007
Apr 4, 2
008Apr 2
3, 2008
Mar 2
4, 2009
Mar 2
6, 2010
Reg
ular
Sal
e
Bank
ow
ned
May 11, 2
009Jul 2
9, 2009
* *
$765,000 devaluationover 3 years while
bank profits are at record highs
http://stevenwblack.com
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autumn run neighborhood
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
http://stevenwblack.com
Will
owbend Ct.
Sage Way
Capitola D
r.Ullm
an Ct.
Chelebrooke Ct.
Will
owbend Ct.Capito
la Dr.
Capitola D
r.Liberty
Dr.
Capitola D
r.Capito
la Dr.
Liberty D
r.Capito
la Ct.Liberty
Dr.
Liberty D
r.
Chelebrooke Ct.
Sage Way
Sage Way
Sage Way
Sage Way
8/2008 through 9/2010
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$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
autumn run neighborhood
http://stevenwblack.com
Will
owbend Ct.
Sage Way
Capitola D
r.Ullm
an Ct.
Chelebrooke Ct.
Will
owbend Ct.Capito
la Dr.
Capitola D
r.Liberty
Dr.
Capitola D
r.Capito
la Dr.
Liberty D
r.Capito
la Ct.Liberty
Dr.
Liberty D
r.
Chelebrooke Ct.
Sage Way
Sage Way
Sage Way
Sage Way
8/2008 through 9/2010
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autumn run neighborhood
* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov) http://stevenwblack.com
bank profits*
home values
Q1 2008 through Q3 2010
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autumn run neighborhood
* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov) http://stevenwblack.com
Q1 2008 through Q3 2010
$765,000 devaluation
$51 Billion292% annual increase
34% quarterly increase
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napa overview
http://stevenwblack.com* Source: BAREIS
Pre-forclosure 367
Auction 444
Bank Owned 401
Total 1,212
As of January 14, 2011
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lake county overview
http://stevenwblack.com
Pre-forclosure 427
Auction 367
Bank Owned 992
Total 1,786
As of January 14, 2011
* Source: BAREIS
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crime rate
http://stevenwblack.com
According to a study by Woodstock Institute and the Georgia Institute of
Technology, a foreclosure rate of 3 percent leads to a
7 percent increase in crime*
* Source: National Association of Realtors
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What Can You Do?
http://stevenwblack.com
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/3405811164/
what you can do
Get Educated
http://stevenwblack.com
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what you can do
Get Educated
Being here is a great start!
http://stevenwblack.comhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/3405811164/
![Page 73: Comprehensive Housing Market Overview 1/15/2011](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110310/559f1a171a28abe0198b4630/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
what you can do
Get Help
http://www.flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/4748766022/ http://stevenwblack.com
![Page 74: Comprehensive Housing Market Overview 1/15/2011](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110310/559f1a171a28abe0198b4630/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/4748766022/
what you can do
Get Help
*
Or someone like us*http://stevenwblack.com
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The Process
http://stevenwblack.com
![Page 76: Comprehensive Housing Market Overview 1/15/2011](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110310/559f1a171a28abe0198b4630/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
the process
http://stevenwblack.com
![Page 77: Comprehensive Housing Market Overview 1/15/2011](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110310/559f1a171a28abe0198b4630/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
the process
http://stevenwblack.com
Draft a plan
![Page 78: Comprehensive Housing Market Overview 1/15/2011](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110310/559f1a171a28abe0198b4630/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
the process
http://stevenwblack.com
Real Estate Attorney
CPA
Realtor
Financial Advisor
Bankruptcy Attorney
![Page 79: Comprehensive Housing Market Overview 1/15/2011](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110310/559f1a171a28abe0198b4630/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
the process
http://stevenwblack.com
Real Estate Attorney
CPA
Realtor
Financial Advisor
Bankruptcy Attorney
![Page 80: Comprehensive Housing Market Overview 1/15/2011](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110310/559f1a171a28abe0198b4630/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
the process
http://stevenwblack.com
Execute
Real Estate Attorney
CPA
Realtor
Financial Advisor
Bankruptcy Attorney
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Next Steps
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we are here for you
http://[email protected]
@stevenwblackFacebook
1.707.931.4700
http://stevenwblack.com
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Questions&
Answers
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We Encourage SharingYou are free to download and distribute this presentation under
the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-ShareAlike license
That means you can use the information in this presentation for non-commercial means as long as you share your work under the
same license and give credit toSteven W. Black & Associates
finishing up
http://stevenwblack.com