Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to
constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II.
Concordia Maritime
Reason: Preview of results
Company sponsored research
Not rated
Awaiting the IMO 2020 spark
We expect Q2’19 EBITDA of SEK 37m
Refining profitability to support tanker demand
Crude oil market providing support
We expect Q2’19 EBITDA of SEK 37m
Suezmax rates began Q2’19 from a low point and accelerated to levels
of up to USD 23kpd later in the quarter, averaging ~USD 15kpd (down
28% q-o-q and up 49% y-o-y), below the CBE of ~USD 25kpd. MR
tankers slowed to ~USD 11kpd per day (down 16% q-o-q and up 44% y-
o-y), beneath their CBE of ~USD 17kpd. Adjusting for the earlier exiting
of the chartered-in fleet and slightly lower rates in Q3’19, we expect
Q2’19 EBITDA of SEK 37m and decrease our 2019e EBITDA to SEK
292m (SEK 346m). The Q2 results are due on 15 August.
Refining profitability to support tanker demand
With IMO 2020 approaching, the IEA expects refinery runs to strongly
increase by 0.5 MMBD and 1.1 MMBD in Q3’19 and Q4’19, respectively,
helping to spur product tanker demand. Increased runs have historically
contributed to strong tanker cycles, and will be incentivised by enlarged
refining margins from the regulation. Oil Major Repsol in its recent Q2’19
call conservatively guided a 22% refining margin increase solely due to
the regulation, which is a position we believe most complex refiners will
exploit by increasing their seaborne oil product trading.
Crude oil market providing support
Our oil market estimates imply a substantial stock draw in Q3’19 which
will cause short-term pain in the tanker market. However, we expect this
to reverse to a small build in Q4’19 in tandem with the seasonally strong
winter months, with oil supply gaining momentum and resulting in a
substantial build and higher tanker rates in Q1’20. Most notably, Non-
OPEC supply growth will exceed global demand growth, pushing
substantial oil volumes onto the market and reducing Call-on-OPEC.
Assuming continued OPEC cuts, incremental Non-OPEC volumes will
have a ~138% longer haul than OPEC volumes from the MEG when
heading to Asia. When adjusting for fleet supply growth the net effect will
be a tanker shortage, which should help the tanker market firm
substantially starting from Q4’19.
25/07/2019
Performance
Equity Research - 31 July 2019 23:05 CET
SEKm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Sales 828 1,053 1,132 1,287 1,102
EBITDA 51 57 292 551 374
EBITDA margin (%) 6.2 5.4 25.8 42.8 33.9
EBIT adj -625 -130 46 303 125
EBIT adj margin (%) -75.5 -12.3 4.0 23.5 11.4
Pretax profit -660 -182 -55 200 35
EPS rep -13.83 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74
EPS adj -3.90 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74
Sales growth (%) -20.3 27.2 7.5 13.7 -14.4
EPS growth (%) -1,052.4 72.4 69.9 464.7 -82.4
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
Estimate changes (%)
2019e 2020e 2021e
Sales -4.4% 3.3% 3.3%
EBIT (rep) -56.4% 6.1% 10.2%
EPS (rep) -943.8% 7.2% 27.6%
Source: ABG Sundal Collier
Share price (SEK) 12.6
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Sweden
CCORb.ST/CCORB SS
MCap (SEKm) 601
MCap (EURm) 57.1
Net debt (EURm) 96
No. of shares (m) 47.7
Free float (%) 100.0
Av. daily volume (k) 3.6
Next event Q2 report: 15 Aug
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jul 1
6
Se
p 1
6
No
v 16
Jan
17
Mar
17
May
17
Jul 1
7
Se
p 1
7
No
v 17
Jan
18
Mar
18
May
18
Jul 1
8
Se
p 1
8
No
v 18
Jan
19
Mar
19
May
19
Concordia Maritime OMX STH PI
1m 3m 12m
Absolute (%) 13.0 16.1 25.4
OMX STH PI (%) 0.9 -1.5 4.5
Source: FactSet
2019e 2020e 2021e
P/E (x) -11.0 3.0 17.1
P/E adj (x) -11.0 3.0 17.1
P/BVPS (x) 0.55 0.46 0.45
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.5 2.3 2.7
EV/EBIT adj (x) 35.3 4.1 8.0
EV/sales (x) 1.42 0.97 0.91
ROE adj (%) -5.1 16.7 2.7
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) 18.8 59.2 40.8
Net IB debt/EBITDA 3.4 1.2 1.1
Lead analyst: Lukas Daul
Dennis Anghelopoulos
Concordia Maritime
31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 2
Oil price estimates (Brent USD/bbl)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
EPS estimate changes, 2019e, SEK
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet
EPS estimate changes, 2020e, SEK
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet
Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT, SEKm
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
OpportunitiesWhile declining asset values and day rates are risks for oil
tanker companies, increasing asset values and day rates
would, all else equal, be positive. A tight freight market
results in increased day rates, which consequently drives
asset values. Increasing net asset values would be
supportive for valuations across the sector, whilst
sustained day rates at healthy levels mean increased
dividend capacity with the potential for highly attractive
dividend yields.
RisksDeclining asset values and day rates are, in our view, the
biggest risks for listed oil tanker companies. Low day rates
and lack of funding could lead to deteriorating asset
values, which in turn would put pressure on NAVs.
Furthermore, sustained day rates at depressed levels
could lead to balance sheet issues for ship owners. A more
balanced oil market is likely to lead to higher oil prices and
less tanker demand for stockpiling.
4954
5052
61
67
74 75
6863
6865 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Q4
16
Q1
17
Q2
17
Q3
17
Q4
17
Q1
18
Q2
18
Q3
18
Q4
18
Q1
19
Q2
19
e
Q3
19
e
Q4
19
e
Q1
20
e
Q2
20
e
Q3
20
e
Q4
20
e
Q1
21
e
Q2
21
e
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
quarterly sales quarterly adj. EBIT
Company descriptionConcordia Maritime is an international tanker shipping
company focusing on the transportation of crude oils, oil
products, chemicals, and vegetable oils. The company
owns a fleet of ten P-MAX product tankers, two IMOIIMAX
chemical/product tankers, one Suezmax, and shares in six-
contracted MR (ECO)-vessels. Concordia’s position within
the Stena Sphere helps the company to achieve
meaningful access to financing and top-tier operational
competence.
Concordia Maritime
31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 3
Detailed estimates and consensus table
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet, company data
Concordia Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons. Cons.
SEKm Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19e Q3'19e Q4'19e Q2'19e Dev. 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2019e 2020e 2021e Dev. Dev. Dev.
Income Statement
Revenues 200 227 259 368 311 245 268 308 295 -17% 1,053 1,132 1,287 1,102 1,184 1,246 1,067 -4% 3% 3%
EBITDA 7 -9 -18 77 82 37 68 105 80 -54% 57 292 551 374 300 503 355 -2% 10% 5%
EBITDA margins 4% -4% -7% 21% 26% 15% 25% 34% 27% 5% 26% 43% 34% 25% 40% 33%
EBIT -36 -56 -66 28 21 -25 6 43 19 n.m -130 45 303 125 104 285 114 -56% 6% 10%
EBIT margins -18% -24% -26% 8% 7% -10% 2% 14% 6% -12% 4% 24% 11% 9% 23% 11%
Net profit -39 -57 -67 -19 2 -52 -21 16 -7 n.m -182 -55 200 35 6 187 28 n.m 7% 26%
# avg. shares 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7 47.7
EPS -0.81 -1.19 -1.40 -0.41 0.04 -1.08 -0.44 0.34 -0.15 n.m -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74 0.13 3.92 0.59 n.m 7% 26%
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n.m 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n.m. n.a. n.a.
Key BS and CF figures
Gross interest bearing debt 1,620 1,686 1,626 1,539 2,398 2,340 2,283 2,225 1,539 2,225 1,994 1,700
Gross cash 193 360 264 224 217 174 156 172 224 172 298 249
NIBD 1,427 1,326 1,362 1,315 2,181 2,166 2,127 2,052 1,315 2,052 1,696 1,451
NIBD/share (USD) 29.9 27.8 28.5 27.6 45.7 45.4 44.6 43.0 27.6 43.0 35.5 30.4
Book equity/share (USD) 25.3 25.9 24.2 22.2 24.2 23.1 22.7 23.0 22.2 23.0 27.2 27.9
Operating cash flow -4 -69 -31 -11 -10 15 39 75 -116 119 446 288
Free cash flow -24 -85 22 72 5 15 39 75 -15 134 356 245
Free cash flow /share (USD) -0.5 -1.8 0.5 1.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 -0.3 2.8 7.5 5.1
Concordia Maritime
31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 4
Investment case
…and refineries took the opportunity to prepare for IMO 2020…
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Bloomberg
…with refinery throughput expected to increase substantially in H2’19…
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IEA
…with the majority of growth coming from East of Suez…
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IEA
…with increased oil product builds helping to spur trade and tanker demand
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IEA
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Refinery Outages (kbpd) 5yr range
5yraverage
2019
2018
Take advantage of cheap crude
IMO 2020 preparations
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Global Refining, Crude Throughput (MMBD)
Range 13-18 2018 Average 13-18
11.9 12 1212.3
12.6 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.575 12.6
10.7 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.810.5
10.710.9 10.725
11.2
7.37.6
8.2 8.1 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.058.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19e Q3'19e Q4'19e 2019 2020
China, Other Asia, and Middle East Refinery Runs (MMBD)
China Other Asia Middle East
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20
VLC
C r
ate
s
MM
BD
Implied Refined Product Balance vs. VLCC rates
Implied global refined product balance VLCC rates ABGSCe
Rates low due to oversupply and stock draw
Better supply-demand picture due to scrubber retrofits
Refinery margins have been weak…
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Bloomberg, Baltic Exchange
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Feb-13 Oct-13 Jun-14 Feb-15 Oct-15 Jun-16 Feb-17 Oct-17 Jun-18 Feb-19
Index
US
D/b
bl
Refinery Margins vs. Baltic Clean Tanker Index
Global Refinery Margin BCTI Index
Concordia Maritime
31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 5
Our oil markets estimates imply stockbuild which should be supportive for tanker rates
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons (rates)
Non-OPEC supply is growing stronger than global oil demand…
...with the substantial supply growth …
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons (historical rates)
…implying a reduction of Call-on-OPEC
This should substantially increase the average haul…
Source: ABG Sundal Collier,
…and help clear the incoming supply
1.36
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Q1'1
5
Q2'1
5
Q3'1
5
Q4'1
5
Q1'1
6
Q2'1
6
Q3'1
6
Q4'1
6
Q1'1
7
Q2'1
7
Q3'1
7
Q4'1
7
Q1'1
8
Q2'1
8
Q3'1
8
Q4'1
8
Q1'1
9
Q2'1
9e
Q3'1
9e
Q4'1
9e
Q1'2
0e
Q2'2
0e
Q3'2
0e
Q4'2
0e
VLCC rates vs. Implied stock build
Implied Stock Build
VLCC Rates
MMBD USD/d
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00 Non-OPEC vs. World Oil Demand Growth
Non-OPEC Supply y-o-y growth Oil Demand Growth
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5 Non-OPEC Supply growth MMBD vs. VLCC rates
Non-OPEC supply growth VLCC rates ABGSCe
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Call on OPEC MMBD vs. VLCC rates
Call-on-OPEC VLCC rates ABGSCe
104
84
9895
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Houston - China Brazil - China Norway - China Average Non-OPEC Ras Tanura - China
Average Roundtrip Duration75
82
-19 -17
-69
-42
-12
24
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2019 2020
Supply vs. Demand - VLCC Equivalents
Non-OPEC supply growth Call-on-OPEC reduction
Net Fleet growth VLCC equivalents Net Effect - VLCC equivalents
Concordia Maritime
31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 6
Valuation
NAV per share (SEK)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons, company data
NAV sensitivity
63
0
63
46
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Steel Value Other GAV NIBD NAV
CCOR NAV Breakdown per share (SEK)
14
4
26
9
12
15
18
20
2325
28
31
12.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
NAV Sensititvity
Concordia Maritime
31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 7
Rates
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Suez Timecharter Rates
1yr 3yr 5yr
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MR Timecharter Rates
1yr 3yr 5yr
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Baltic Clean Index (BCTI)
Rates performance table
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons
Last Done LD -1y Δ y-o-y YTD YTD -1y Δ y-o-y 10y avg Δ vs. LD
Suez Spot 13,460 11,629 16% 17,941 8,720 106% 23,515 -43%
MR Spot 7,678 7,734 -1% 12,085 8,754 38% 11,963 -36%
Suez TC 24,500 16,000 53% 23,491 16,207 45% 23,400 5%
MR TC 14,750 12,750 16% 14,000 13,397 5% 14,355 3%
Baltic Dirty 626 722 -13% 727 684 6% 753 -17%
Baltic Clean 507 497 2% 586 560 5% 609 -17%
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Baltic Dirty Index (BDTI)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MR Spot Rates
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Suez Spot Rates
Concordia Maritime
31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 8
Values
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons
©
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Suezmax Resale (USDm)
Suezmax Resale
36
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
MR Resale (USDm)
MR Resale
61.5
67.0
50.0
36.0
20.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Suez NB Suez Resale Suez 5y Suez 10y Suez 15y
Current Suez Values
36.539.0
30.0
19.0
10.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
MR NB MR Resale MR 5y MR 10y MR 15y
Current MR Values
Values performance table
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Clarksons
Last done LD -1y Δ y-o-y Δ YTD 10y avg Δ vs. LD
Suez NB 62 59 4% 2% 61 -1%
Suez Resale 67 59 15% 2% 64 -5%
Suez 5y 50 44 15% 9% 50 0%
MR NB 37 36 3% 0% 35 -4%
MR Resale 39 36 8% 4% 36 -7%
MR 5y 30 27 12% 9% 26 -12%
Concordia Maritime
31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 9
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
Income Statement (SEKm) Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Sales 211 198 194 200 227 259 368 311
COGS -201 -196 -184 -193 -236 -189 -203 -153
Gross profit 10 2 10 7 -9 70 165 158
Other operating items 0 0 0 0 0 -88 -88 -76
EBITDA 10 2 10 7 -9 -18 77 82
Depreciation on tangibles -55 -50 -43 -43 -46 -48 -49 -60
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBITA -45 -48 -33 -36 -56 -66 28 21
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation 0 -474 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBIT -45 -522 -33 -36 -56 -66 28 21
Interest Net 2 -11 -9 -2 -2 -1 -48 -19
Other financial items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pretax profit -44 -533 -42 -39 -57 -67 -19 2
Tax 0 0 0 0 0 -0 -0 -0
Net profit -44 -533 -42 -39 -57 -67 -19 2
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -44 -533 -42 -39 -57 -67 -19 2
EPS -0.92 -11.17 -0.88 -0.81 -1.20 -1.40 -0.41 0.04
EPS Adj -0.92 -1.24 -0.88 -0.81 -1.20 -1.40 -0.41 0.04
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.5 5.6
Gross margin (%) 4.7 1.0 5.2 3.5 -4.1 27.0 44.9 50.7
EBITDA margin (%) 4.7 1.0 5.2 3.5 -4.1 -6.9 21.0 26.3
EBITA margin (%) -21.5 -24.3 -17.0 -18.2 -24.4 -25.6 7.7 6.8
EBIT margin (%) -21.5 -263.8 -17.0 -18.2 -24.4 -25.6 7.7 6.8
Pretax margin (%) -20.7 -269.5 -21.7 -19.3 -25.2 -25.8 -5.2 0.6
Net margin (%) -20.7 -269.5 -21.7 -19.3 -25.2 -25.9 -5.3 0.5
Growth rates Y/Y Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Sales growth (%) -24.8 -8.1 -30.4 -11.2 7.5 30.7 89.8 55.7
EBITDA growth (%) -82.5 -96.3 -90.8 -76.2 -chg -chg 671.0 1,067.1
EBIT growth (%) -chg -chg -chg -chg -chg +chg +chg +chg
Net profit growth (%) -chg -chg -chg +chg -chg +chg +chg +chg
EPS growth (%) -chg -chg -chg +chg -chg +chg +chg +chg
Adj earnings numbers Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
EBITDA Adj 10 2 10 7 -9 -18 77 82
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 4.7 1.0 5.2 3.5 -4.1 -6.9 21.0 26.3
EBITA Adj -45 -48 -33 -36 -56 -66 28 21
EBITA Adj margin (%) -21.5 -24.3 -17.0 -18.2 -24.4 -25.6 7.7 6.8
EBIT Adj -45 -522 -33 -36 -56 -66 28 21
EBIT Adj margin (%) -21.5 -263.8 -17.0 -18.2 -24.4 -25.6 7.7 6.8
Pretax profit Adj -44 -59 -42 -39 -57 -67 -19 2
Net profit Adj -44 -59 -42 -39 -57 -67 -19 2
Net profit to shareholders Adj -44 -59 -42 -39 -57 -67 -19 2
Net Adj margin (%) -20.7 -30.0 -21.7 -19.3 -25.2 -25.9 -5.3 0.5
Concordia Maritime
31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 10
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
Income Statement (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Sales 543 468 531 810 1,038 828 1,053 1,132 1,287 1,102
COGS -315 -323 -330 -386 -719 -776 -996 -840 -736 -728
Gross profit 228 145 201 424 320 51 57 292 551 374
Other operating items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBITDA 228 145 201 424 320 51 57 292 551 374
Depreciation on tangibles -151 -144 -145 -214 -237 -202 -187 -247 -248 -248
Depreciation on intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBITA 78 0 57 210 83 -151 -130 46 303 125
Goodwill impairment charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other impairment and amortisation -411 0 0 0 0 -474 0 0 0 0
EBIT -334 0 57 210 83 -625 -130 46 303 125
Interest Net -36 -39 -40 -35 -26 -36 -52 -100 -103 -90
Other financial items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pretax profit -369 -39 17 174 57 -660 -182 -55 200 35
Tax 13 10 -8 -1 13 0 -0 -0 0 0
Net profit -356 -29 9 174 69 -660 -182 -55 200 35
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit to shareholders -356 -29 9 174 69 -660 -182 -55 200 35
EPS -7.46 -0.60 0.19 3.64 1.45 -13.83 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74
EPS Adj 1.15 -0.60 0.19 3.64 1.45 -3.90 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74
Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) 3.6 26.2 46.7 0.3 22.4 0 0.1 0.2 0 0
Gross margin (%) 42.0 30.9 37.9 52.3 30.8 6.2 5.4 25.8 42.8 33.9
EBITDA margin (%) 42.0 30.9 37.9 52.3 30.8 6.2 5.4 25.8 42.8 33.9
EBITA margin (%) 14.3 0.1 10.6 25.9 7.9 -18.2 -12.3 4.0 23.5 11.4
EBIT margin (%) -61.4 0.1 10.6 25.9 7.9 -75.5 -12.3 4.0 23.5 11.4
Pretax margin (%) -68.0 -8.3 3.1 21.5 5.5 -79.7 -17.3 -4.8 15.5 3.2
Net margin (%) -65.5 -6.2 1.7 21.5 6.7 -79.7 -17.3 -4.8 15.5 3.2
Growth rates Y/Y 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Sales growth (%) -2.9 -13.9 13.6 52.5 28.2 -20.3 27.2 7.5 13.7 -14.4
EBITDA growth (%) -5.9 -36.6 39.0 110.7 -24.6 -84.0 10.9 413.4 88.6 -32.1
EBIT growth (%) -409.9 100.1 14,025.0 271.2 -60.7 -857.0 79.2 135.0 564.5 -58.6
Net profit growth (%) -519.8 91.9 130.9 1,853.9 -60.1 -1,052.4 72.4 69.9 464.7 -82.4
EPS growth (%) -519.8 91.9 130.9 1,853.9 -60.1 -1,052.4 72.4 69.9 464.7 -82.4
Profitability 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
ROE (%) -22.9 -2.2 0.6 10.1 3.5 -39.9 -15.9 -5.1 16.7 2.7
ROE Adj (%) 3.5 -2.2 0.6 10.1 3.5 -11.3 -15.9 -5.1 16.7 2.7
ROCE (%) -9.3 0.3 1.8 5.6 2.8 -18.3 -3.9 2.5 13.8 6.1
ROCE Adj(%) 2.6 0.3 1.8 5.6 2.8 -3.5 -3.9 2.5 13.8 6.1
ROIC (%) -9.5 0.0 0.9 5.5 2.7 -21.0 -5.1 1.6 9.4 4.1
ROIC Adj (%) -9.5 0.0 0.9 5.5 2.7 -21.0 -5.1 1.6 9.4 4.1
Adj earnings numbers 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
EBITDA Adj 228 145 201 424 320 51 57 292 551 374
EBITDA Adj margin (%) 42.0 30.9 37.9 52.3 30.8 6.2 5.4 25.8 42.8 33.9
EBITA Adj 78 0 57 210 83 -151 -130 46 303 125
EBITA Adj margin (%) 14.3 0.1 10.6 25.9 7.9 -18.2 -12.3 4.0 23.5 11.4
EBIT Adj -334 0 57 210 83 -625 -130 46 303 125
EBIT Adj margin (%) -61.4 0.1 10.6 25.9 7.9 -75.5 -12.3 4.0 23.5 11.4
Pretax profit Adj 42 -39 17 174 57 -186 -182 -55 200 35
Net profit Adj 55 -29 9 174 69 -186 -182 -55 200 35
Net profit to shareholders Adj 55 -29 9 174 69 -186 -182 -55 200 35
Net Adj margin (%) 10.1 -6.2 1.7 21.5 6.7 -22.5 -17.3 -4.8 15.5 3.2
Concordia Maritime
31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 11
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
Cash Flow Statement (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
EBITDA 228 145 201 424 320 51 57 292 551 374
Net financial items -36 -39 -40 -35 -26 -36 -52 -100 -103 -90
Paid tax 13 10 -8 -1 13 0 -0 -0 0 0
Non-cash items 8 -13 -18 18 -57 -66 -64 -53 24 -47
Cash flow before change in WC 214 103 135 406 250 -50 -59 139 473 237
Change in WC -46 -67 -50 -29 -5 81 -57 -20 -27 51
Operating cash flow 168 36 86 378 245 31 -116 119 446 288
CAPEX tangible fixed assets -428 -65 -88 -459 -90 -78 -3 -6 -90 -43
CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Acquisitions and disposals 10 12 328 0 826 477 61 0 0 0
Free cash flow -251 -16 326 -82 981 430 -59 113 356 245
Dividend paid -48 -24 0 0 -24 -24 0 0 0 0
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0
Other non cash items 10 81 -102 237 -4 -19 88 878 24 -47
Decrease in net IB debt -289 41 224 156 953 387 37 991 381 199
Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Indefinite intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Definite intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tangible fixed assets 3,065 2,916 3,130 3,809 3,166 2,306 2,303 3,026 2,867 2,662
Other fixed assets 48 110 207 1 21 0 15 15 15 15
Fixed assets 3,113 3,026 3,336 3,810 3,186 2,306 2,318 3,041 2,883 2,677
Inventories 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Receivables 127 193 243 271 277 196 254 274 301 250
Other current assets 97 82 0 0 273 223 97 85 85 85
Cash and liquid assets 144 106 137 274 406 244 126 88 213 164
Total assets 3,481 3,407 3,716 4,355 4,142 2,968 2,795 3,487 3,481 3,175
Shareholders equity 1,331 1,292 1,575 1,869 2,090 1,222 1,062 1,097 1,297 1,332
Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity 1,331 1,292 1,575 1,869 2,090 1,222 1,062 1,097 1,297 1,332
Long-term debt 1,980 1,863 2,014 2,129 1,700 1,413 1,108 878 647 352
Pension debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Convertible debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 193 1,033 1,033 1,033
Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 221 231 231 231
Accounts payable 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other current liabilities 170 252 127 357 353 334 212 250 275 228
Total liabilities and equity 3,481 3,407 3,716 4,355 4,142 2,968 2,795 3,488 3,482 3,176
Net IB debt 1,835 1,747 1,877 1,855 1,273 1,169 1,188 1,005 649 404
Net IB debt excl. pension debt 1,835 1,747 1,877 1,855 1,273 1,169 1,188 1,005 649 404
Capital invested 3,239 3,209 3,578 4,080 3,442 2,502 2,557 3,300 3,168 2,911
Working capital 127 193 243 271 277 196 254 274 301 250
EV breakdown 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Market cap. diluted (m) na 558 616 931 663 597 582 601 601 601
Net IB debt Adj 1,835 1,747 1,877 1,855 1,273 1,169 1,188 1,005 649 404
Market value of minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EV na 2,306 2,492 2,786 1,936 1,766 1,770 1,607 1,250 1,005
Capital efficiency (%) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Total assets turnover (%) 15.0 13.6 14.9 20.1 24.4 23.3 36.5 36.0 36.9 33.1
Capital invested turnover (%) 16.1 14.5 15.7 21.2 27.6 27.8 41.6 38.7 39.8 36.3
Capital employed turnover (%) 15.7 14.5 15.8 21.4 26.7 25.8 41.9 49.3 58.8 53.9
Inventories/sales (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Customer advances/sales (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Payables/sales (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Working capital/sales (%) 19.1 34.2 41.1 31.7 26.4 28.6 21.4 23.3 22.3 25.0
Financial risk and debt service 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Net debt/equity (%) 137.9 135.2 119.2 99.3 60.9 95.7 111.9 91.6 50.0 30.3
Net debt/market cap (%) na 322.8 305.5 226.9 166.8 185.2 229.0 167.1 107.9 67.1
Equity ratio (%) 38.2 37.9 42.4 42.9 50.5 41.2 38.0 31.5 37.3 42.0
Net IB debt adj./equity (%) 137.9 135.2 119.2 99.3 60.9 95.7 111.9 91.6 50.0 30.3
Current ratio (%) 216.2 151.5 298.3 152.7 271.1 198.4 110.5 92.8 118.4 108.6
EBITDA/net interest (%) 636.2 367.3 505.5 1,200.8 1,234.4 144.5 109.8 291.4 537.0 414.5
Net IB debt/EBITDA (%) 803.5 1,207.5 932.7 437.6 398.2 2,278.6 2,087.3 344.1 117.8 108.0
Interest cover (%) 186.1 18.2 136.8 554.2 206.2 -155.9 -120.1 50.9 294.9 139.0
Concordia Maritime
31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 12
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data
Valuation and Ratios (SEKm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Shares outstanding adj. 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
Fully diluted shares Adj 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
EPS -7.46 -0.60 0.19 3.64 1.45 -13.83 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74
Dividend per share Adj 1.0 0.5 0 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0
EPS Adj 1.15 -0.60 0.19 3.64 1.45 -3.90 -3.81 -1.15 4.19 0.74
BVPS 27.88 27.08 32.99 39.15 43.78 25.60 22.24 22.99 27.17 27.91
BVPS Adj 27.88 27.08 32.99 39.15 43.78 25.60 22.24 22.99 27.17 27.91
Net IB debt / share 38.4 36.6 39.3 38.9 26.7 24.5 24.9 21.1 13.6 8.5
Share price na 11.70 12.90 19.50 13.90 12.50 12.20 12.60 12.60 12.60
Market cap. (m) na 558 616 931 663 597 582 601 601 601
Valuation 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
P/E na -19.4 69.2 5.4 9.6 -0.9 -3.2 -11.0 3.0 17.1
EV/sales na 4.93 4.69 3.44 1.87 2.13 1.68 1.42 0.97 0.91
EV/EBITDA na 15.9 12.4 6.6 6.1 34.4 31.1 5.5 2.3 2.7
EV/EBITA na 5,764.3 44.1 13.3 23.5 -11.7 -13.6 35.3 4.1 8.0
EV/EBIT na 5,764.3 44.1 13.3 23.5 -2.8 -13.6 35.3 4.1 8.0
Dividend yield (%) na 4.3 0 0 3.6 0 0 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) na -2.9 52.9 -8.8 147.9 72.1 -10.1 18.8 59.2 40.8
P/BVPS na 0.43 0.39 0.50 0.32 0.49 0.55 0.55 0.46 0.45
P/BVPS Adj na 0.43 0.39 0.50 0.32 0.49 0.55 0.55 0.46 0.45
P/E Adj na -19.4 69.2 5.4 9.6 -3.2 -3.2 -11.0 3.0 17.1
EV/EBITDA Adj na 15.9 12.4 6.6 6.1 34.4 31.1 5.5 2.3 2.7
EV/EBITA Adj na 5,764.3 44.1 13.3 23.5 -11.7 -13.6 35.3 4.1 8.0
EV/EBIT Adj na 5,764.3 44.1 13.3 23.5 -2.8 -13.6 35.3 4.1 8.0
EV/cap. employed na 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5
Investment ratios 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Capex/sales 78.8 13.8 16.5 56.7 8.6 9.4 0.3 0.5 7.0 3.9
Capex/depreciation 283.8 44.8 60.7 214.4 37.7 38.6 1.6 2.4 36.2 17.2
Capex tangibles/tangible fixed assets 14.0 2.2 2.8 12.1 2.8 3.4 0.1 0.2 3.1 1.6
Capex intangibles/definite intangibles nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm
Depreciation on intangibles/definite intangibles nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm
Depreciation on tangibles/tangibles 4.9 4.9 4.6 5.6 7.5 8.8 8.1 8.1 8.7 9.3
Concordia Maritime
31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 13
Analyst certification I/We, Dennis Anghelopoulos, Lukas Daul, the author(s) of this report, certify that not withstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to below, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal view about the companies and securities covered in this report.
Analyst valuation methods ABG Sundal Collier analysts may publish valuation ranges for stocks covered under Company Sponsored Research. These valuation ranges rely on various valuation methods. One of the most frequently used methods is the valuation of a company by calculation of that company's discounted cash flow (DCF). Another valuation method is the analysis of a company's return on capital employed relative to its cost of capital. Finally, the analysts may analyse various valuation multiples (e.g. the P/E multiples and the EV/EBITDA multiples) relative to global industry peers. In special cases, particularly for property companies and investment companies, the ratio of price to net asset value is considered. Valuation ranges may be changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. They may also be changed when the underlying value of a company's assets changes (in the cases of investment companies, property companies or insurance companies) or when factors impacting the required rate of return change.
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Production of report: 31/07/2019 23:05 CET.
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Concordia Maritime
31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 14
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31 July 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 15
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