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Contingency planning for animal disease outbreaks: Why we need the humanities.
Dr. Lisa Boden
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* I am a quantitative veterinary epidemiologist
Disclaimer*
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Main Messages
I. Epidemiology: A “web without a spider”.
II. Animal health is a social and political problem, not just a technical one.
III. Integrated modes of interdisciplinary enquiry are necessary to successfully assess, communicate and manage risks. • Resilience • Effective translation • Ethical outcomes
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Changing Risks
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HORIZONSCANNINGWeather,Geology,Defence,AnimalandPublicHealth,Interna;onalpoli;csandevents
OIEFAOWHO
MONITORINGANDSURVEILLANCE- PublicHealthInfrastructure- Diagnos;cfeasibility- Stakeholderopinion- Legisla;on
CONTROLANDERADICATIONAnimalandPlantHealthAgency
DEFRA,HPS
CONTINGENCYPLANNINGChiefVeterinaryandMedicalOfficers,
MinistersCentresofExper;se,AdvisoryBodiesandStakeholders
Localpartners
Globalpartners
Opera;onal
Tac;cal
Strategic
Diseasefreedom
Interna;onalstandards
WTO
SPS Agreement 1995
A enabler/inhibitor for free trade
Onus on country of
origin to meet international standards.*
*Brugere et al. (2017) People matter in disease surveillance. Aquaculture
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“Animal health policy must be science-based!”
“This rallying cry is heard from animal health professionals around the world. The second verse of this mantra is often ‘science, not politics’, as if science is unquestionably ‘good’ and politics ‘evil’.
Antipathy toward politics is worn as a badge of honour.“*
Will Hueston Gareth Davies Lecture
SVEPM 2003 Please note that this quote was taken out of context. This lecture was
an elegant exposition on why scientists should care about policy.
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“The field of epidemiology suffers from the absence not only of a clearly articulated and comprehensive epidemiological theory, but it seems, even the awareness that it lacks such a theory. The science is …viewed as a collection of methods to be applied to particular problems involving ..diseases and health.”
Krieger (1994) Epidemiology and the web of causation: Has anyone seen the spider? Soc. Sci. Med.
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0102030405060708090
1001982
1984
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1996
1998
1999
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2005
2007
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YEAR
% P
AP
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S/Y
EA
R
OTHER (EXPERT SYSTEMS)
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
RISK ANALYSIS
SPATIAL & NETWORK ANALYSIS
MATHEMATICAL MODEL
STATISTICAL MODEL
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
REVIEW
Veterinary Epidemiology: A Brief History in Data
Boden, L.A. “A History in Data.” SVEPM 2010 Poster presentation
Social Sciences – become more
visible in contingency planning and
epidemiology after FMD 2001
ISESSAH in 2017
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Risk Governance Framework and the Humanities
*Risk perception and evaluation
Risk management
Risk assessment
Framing the risk question
Risk Communication
* International Risk Governance Council Framework *World Health Organization. WHO guidelines on ethical issues in public health surveillance.
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I. Resilience Future-proofing Contingency Planning
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D O O U T B R E A K M O D E L S H AV E A
S H E L F - L I F E ?
Boden (2015) Scenario planning. Forestry Seminar
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Scenario Planning
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Highly Complex Challenges
What is the future of animal health surveillance in 2030?
– Detection and description
– Data sharing – Resources – Legal-ethical issues
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Scenario planning challenges
our …”unspoken assumptions
about the future” and lifting the
"blinders that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”
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Mar
kets
Resources
Low connectivity
High connectivity
Public goodPrivate good
A highly competitive industry-led future - Reduced public resources for support.
A government-led future
-Increased innovation.
A fragmented professional
industry future - Reliant on
government support.
An opportunistic future -Erosion of industry knowledge and heritage.
Boden et al. (2017) Year 2030: What is the future of animal health surveillance in Scotland. Available at www.epicscotland.org
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II. Effective Translation
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“It seems that the problems of the world boil down to me not
understanding others and them not understanding me, and that’s a
humanities problem.”
Professor Daniel Rockmore
Judth Hertog (2017) “Why we need the humanities. Right now. More than ever.”
Dartmouth Alumni Magazine
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“Funding the Arrows”*
*Boden et al. (2014) Working at the science-policy interface. Vet Record p165 *Campbell (2006) The Australian natural resource management knowledge system.
**Brown et al. Interdisciplinarity: How to catalyse collaboration, Nature 2015
BROAD knowledge
DEEP know
ledge T-shaped Scientists**
Necessary for ‘Design Thinking’
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“STEM” should be “STEAM”*
• Soft power: Influencing behaviour
• Engagement with at-risk populations and beneficiaries
*Credit to Lee Innes and Scottish Crucible
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Global Epidemic? Quick, Call a Graphic Designer!
Nancy Durant, The Times
August 17, 2017
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Communication “Sans Frontières”
Exhibition: Can Graphic Design Save Your Life? At the Wellcome Collection
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Ascus – non-profit dedicated to Art and Science So-called because it is “ the place in lichen where spores are produced that go on to colonise barren areas”
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Artists are Risk-Takers… Be Prepared to Take Risks
Artwork by Tony McKay
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Artists are Risk-Takers… Be Prepared to Take Risks
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Artists are Risk-Takers… Be Prepared to Take Risks
Artwork by Tony McKay
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Artists are Risk-Takers… Be Prepared to Take Risks
Collaboration not commission
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“I’d like to meet the artist … he must know a lot about our profession and the farming
industry now.”
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III. Ethical Outcomes
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“For the privileged, the humanities can foster a greater understanding
of those less fortunate.”*
*Judth Hertog (2017) “Why we need the humanities. Right now. More than ever.”
Dartmouth Alumni Magazine
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Models as Evidence for Policy
• Access to “Big Data” offers potential to fast-track decision-making during outbreaks.
• Foreseeable nature of outcomes + lack of
accountability for risk management creates potential for a moral vacuum occupied by scientists.*
*Boden and McKendrick (2017) “Model-based Policy-making” Frontiers in PH Policy
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Ethical Principles Apply to Models of Disease Control and Surveillance*
• Independence • Transparency • Beneficence/maleficence • Justice
*Beachamp and Childress (2009). Principles of Biomedical Ethics. *Boden and McKendrick (2017) Model-based policymaking. Frontiers in PH Policy
*World Health Organization. WHO guidelines on ethical issues in public health surveillance.
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Justice
• Professional obligations to consider equitable and non-discriminatory benefits and burdens of research.*
• Epidemiological recommendations should not worsen or create new inequalities.
• Variability should be accounted for in model design and in the impact of interventions.**
. *Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences 2008
**Boden and McKendrick (2017) Frontiers in PH Policy *** Equity versus equality meme – credit to Craig Froehle
Equality
Equity
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Accountability
• Risk assessment versus risk management.
• “Duty of care” – Liability versus
culpability. Tribune dell’Aquila crim. Sec.,
22 October 2012
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A Forward Look
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Multi-disciplinary but Myopic?
Veterinary OR human medicine,
biology, physical sciences,
microeconomics
Animal Health
Global (human) Health
Outbreaksolu;ons
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A Shifting Paradigm (I)
Now integrates
human health and social
science
Veterinary OR human medicine,
biology, physical sciences,
microeconomics
Animal Health
One Health
Global (human) Health
Outbreaksolu;ons
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A Shifting Paradigm (II)
Now integrates
human health and social
science
Now incorporates health of the environment, political, legal
and social systems
Veterinary OR human medicine,
biology, physical sciences,
microeconomics
Animal Health
One Health
Planetary Health*
Global (human) Health
* Lancet August 2017
Outbreaksolu;ons
Macro- epidemiology
Butshouldwestrivetobehere
ScoOshPriori;es
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To ignore the humanities, is to ignore the important influence of humans in animal disease surveillance and control …and the impacts of human existence on the dynamics of the system at risk.
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Collaborators
• Scenario planning – Harriet Auty, Aaron Reeves, Gustaf Rydevik, Paul Bessell, Iain
McKendrick, Scribes, Participants
• Art – Tony McKay
• Science-policy communication – Harriet Auty and Dom Mellor
• Ethics – Iain McKendrick
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DR. LISA BODEN AB, BVSc, LLM, PhD, MRCVS, MANZCVSc, DipECVPH
Specialist in Veterinary Public Health
Tweet @Lisa_A_Boden and @EpicScotland
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