Download - Corn Situation and Outlook
Corn Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Corn Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1992-2007
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ion
bu
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Price, 1992-2007
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ion
bu
$1.50
$1.70
$1.90
$2.10
$2.30
$2.50
$2.70
$2.90
$3.10
$3.30
$3.50
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Corn Ending Stocks 1996-2007
010002000300040005000600070008000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
Mil
lio
n b
ush
els
Foreign Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Corn ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 937 937 937Acres (MPA) 86.5 90.5 94.5Acres (MHA) 79.2 82.9 86.6Yield 142 150.3 158Supply(M. Bu) 12252 13412 14629 Use:
Feed 5700Ethanol 3400 Food, Seed 1390 Exports 1975
Ending Stocks 524 947 1370Projected Price $3.80 $3.30 $2.80
Wheat Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Wheat Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mil
lio
n B
u
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Wheat Ending Stocks, 1996-2007
010002000300040005000600070008000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
Mil
lio
n b
ush
els
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Wheat ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 412 412 412Acres (M. A. Planted) 59.3 60.3 61.3Acres (M.A. Harvested) 51.2 52.1 53.0Yield 40.2 41.7 43.2Supply(M. Bu) 2572 2685 2800 Use:
Food, Seed 1011 Feed, Resid 230 Exports 975
Ending Stocks 394 469 544Projected Price $5.00 $4.25 $3.50
Soybean Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Soybean Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mil
lio
n B
u
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs. Price, 1990-2007
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Ending Stocks (MB)
Pri
ce
/Bu
. ‘06
‘05
‘01‘00 ‘99
‘98
‘97
‘96
‘95
‘94
‘93
‘92‘91
‘90‘04
‘03
‘02
‘07
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Ending Stocks, 1996-2007
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500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year
Mil
lio
n B
ush
els
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Meal Ending Stocks, 1997-2007
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Oil Ending Stocks, 1997-2007
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 610 610 610Acres (MA Planted) 65.8 67.1 68.4Acres (MA Harvested) 64.8 66.1 67.4Yield 39.0 41.5 44.0Supply(M. Bu) 3142 3359 3579 Use:
Crushing 1790 Exports 1080 Seed, Feed 169
Ending Stocks 174 320 466Projected Price $7.25 $6.75 $6.25
Grain Sorghum Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Sorghum Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1996-2007
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Sorghum Ending Stocks and Price, 1996-2007
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mil
lio
n B
u
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008Sorghum ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 48.0 48.0 48.0
Acres (M. P. A.) 6.8 7.1 7.4
Supply(M. Bu) 365 428 488
Use:
Food & Seed 65
Exports 160
Feed 160
Ending Stocks 22 43 64
Projected Price $3.50 $3.25 $3.00
Cotton Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Cotton Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007
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5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Th
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Ba
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Production Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)
U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007
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4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Th
ou
sa
nd
Ba
les
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)
U.S. & Foreign Cotton Ending Stocks, 1997-2007
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
Th
ou
san
d B
ales
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Cotton ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 9.5 9.5 9.5Acres (M. P. A.) 11.8 12.2 12.5Acres (MA Harvested) 10.7 11.0 11.3Yield 760 820 880Supply(MB) 26.4 28.3 30.3 Use:
Domestic 4.4 Exports 17.5
Ending Stocks 3.5 6.4 9.3Projected Price/cwt
What Could Change The Outlook?
South America Plant Mix Non-Farm Economic Conditions in U.S.,
World – Oil Supplies, War Exchange Rates China Weather