Download - COUNCIL MEETING AND ECONOMIC BRIEF Q1 2013
COUNCIL MEETING AND ECONOMIC BRIEFQ1 2013
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QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY• RESULTS FOR Q1 2013
NATIONAL OUTPUT
Source: Bank of England Inflation Report/Office for National Statistics National Accounts
– Demand– Service sector weaker, but remains positive– Manufacturing domestic contraction, but export orders
improve
– Employment– Remains positive and strengthens ahead– Shift to temporary hires in services
– Investment– Intentions still weak– Manufacturing up slightly– Services ease
– Confidence– Services hold at post-recession high, manufacturing
eases reflecting underlying weakness in construction
HEADLINE RESULTS FOR Q1
QES v NATIONAL OUTPUT CORRELATION
Source: Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey/Office for National Statistics National Accounts
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION DEMAND – SALES
Source: Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey
NORTH WEST CONSTRUCTION ORDERS
Source: Office for National Statistics Regional Construction Sector Statistics
QES CONSTRUCTION ORDERS v ONS DATA
Source: Greater Manchester Quarter Economic Survey/Office for National Statistics Regional Construction Sector Statistics
QES EMPLOYMENT v JSA COUNT
Source: North West Quarter Economic Survey/Office for National Statistics Labour Market Statistics
– Treat official headline numbers with caution– Policy driven increase in claimant count– Public sector losses– Some corporate failures and temporary workers
released– Private sector still creating jobs and stronger intentions
ahead
– Manufacturing– Skilled positions the most difficult to fill– Construction sector also recruiting, reversing Q4 decline
– Services– Slight shift to temporary hires– Clerical positions the hardest to fill
EMPLOYMENT HIGHLIGHTS
EXPORTER CONFIDENCE – Q1 2013
Source: Greater Manchester Quarter Economic Survey
EXPORTER CONFIDENCE – Q4 2012
Source: Greater Manchester Quarter Economic Survey
NORTH WEST EXPORTS 2011 v 2012, £m
Region 2012 2011 Change
EU 12,719 50% 13,655 52% -6.8%
Asia & Oceania 4,498 18% 4,419 17% 1.8%
Eastern Europe 369 1% 395 1% -6.5%
Latin America & Caribbean 400 2% 372 1% 7.7%
Middle East and N Africa 1,253 5% 1,162 4% 7.8%
North America 4,505 18% 4,938 19% -8.8%
Sub-Saharan Africa 343 1% 357 1% -4.0%
Western Europe exc EC 1,117 4% 1,110 4% 0.6%
Total 25,204 100% 26,407 100% -4.6%
Source: HMRC Regional Trade Statistics
NORTH WEST IMPORTS 2011 v 2012, £m
Region 2012 2011 Change
EU 13,094 50% 14,755 54% -11.3%
Asia & Oceania 6,070 23% 6,118 22% -0.8%
Eastern Europe 1,120 4% 687 3% 63.0%
Latin America & Caribbean 593 2% 557 2% 6.5%
Middle East and N Africa 1,487 6% 1,296 5% 14.7%
North America 2,514 10% 2,855 10% -12.0%
Sub-Saharan Africa 289 1% 283 1% 2.2%
Western Europe exc EC 845 3% 793 3% 6.5%
Total 26,011 100% 27,345 100% -4.9%
Source: HMRC Regional Trade Statistics
– Manufacturing– Demand eases, with it do intentions to increase prices– Raw material price pressures– Exchange rate concerns– Competition eases in manufacturing, more intense for
constructors
– Services– Sustained level of those operating at capacity with
intentions to pass on price increases– Pressure from input prices and overheads– Though competitive pressure intensify
– Interest rate concerns rise after two quarters of falls
INFLATION & COST PRESSURES
PRODUCER INPUT PRICES
Source: Office for National Statistics Producer Prices Index
EXCHANGE RATES
Source: Royal Bank of Scotland Databank
BANK OF ENGLAND INFLATION – AUGUST 2012
Source: Bank of England Inflation Report August 2012
BANK OF ENGLAND INFLATION – FEBRUARY 2013
Source: Bank of England Inflation Report February 2013
– Mixed picture– Domestic v Export– Sectoral and sub-regional disparities– Retail: Shift to online / Powerful retail centres
– Employment remains positive in private sector– Inflation remains a pressure for household and
business– Business margins could be squeezed– Investment weak with low growth and uncertain
outlook– Finance challenges
– Long term options for business, but complex/tinkering by Government?
CONCLUDING REMARKS
THANK YOU
QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION
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ACTION FOR BUSINESS•Budget 2013
•Ongoing Action
•Open Forum
BUDGET 2013•Housing Market - centered around Help to Buy, part of a £5.4bn
package designed to tackle long -term problems in the housing market
starting April 2013. A further 15,000 affordable homes announced.
•Business Bank – accelerated deployment of £1bn capital, improve
existing schemes and develop a new institution to support SMEs.
•Heseltine Review response – confirmation of the setting up of a
single local growth fund.
•Employment Allowance - from April 2014 all businesses eligible for
£2000 Employment Allowance – reduction off employer NICs.
•Business Rates – no reference to Business Rates, universally
recognised by business organisations as being a major issue for
business.
ONGOING ACTION
•Procurement – ongoing work through Action For
Business forums and presentations, mandatory use of
PAS91
•Real Time Information – lack of awareness
•Export – major new BCC initiative in 20 target markets,
local connections with overseas Chambers
OPEN FORUM
• Any other issues?
• Any questions?
• Over to you……
THANK YOU
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