Shiva Pd. Nepal, DHM
South Asia Drought Monitor Workshop Dhaka Bangladesh 20th April 2015
Country Presentation-Nepal
Mt.Everest,
Overview
Brief Climatology
Climate activities- DHM
PPCR (Pilot Program for Climate Resilience) and BRCH
Drought related activities in Nepal
Nepal is strongly Influenced by
Monsoon Circulation
Based on
Monsoon Phenomenon
Four Seasons
•Pre- Monsoon( March-May)
•Monsoon( June – September)
•Post Monsoon( October- November)
•Winter ( December- February)
Brief Climatology
-General Seasons in Nepal
22 28 3559
137
285
490
428
271
67
10 15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Norm
al ra
infa
ll (m
m)
Month
Source: DHM
3.5
12.5
79.8
4.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Winter Premonsoon Monsoon Postmonsoon
% o
f Nor
mal
rain
fall
Season
Seasonal/Monthly Rainfall Variation
Monthly Rainfall Variation
Normal Monsoon and winter Rainfall Pattern
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88
27
28
29
30
Dadeldhura
Dhangadhi
Jumla
Surkhet
Nepalgunj Dang
Bhairahawa
Pokhara
Simara
Kathmandu
Okhaldhunga
Dhankuta
Biratnagar
Taplejung
Dipayal
Monsoon Normal precipitation (mm) (1981-2010)
0 250 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88
27
28
29
30
Dadeldhura
Dhangadhi
Jumla
Surkhet
Nepalgunj Dang
Bhairahawa
Pokhara
Simara
Kathmandu
Okhaldhunga
Dhankuta
Biratnagar
Taplejung
Dipayal
Fig.2: Winter normal precipitation (mm)
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Trend of Monsoon Onset
Trend of Monsoon Withdrawal
Source: Saraju K Baidya, , M. L. Shrestha
Monsoon Trends – Onset & Withdrawal
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Rai
nfa
ll (m
m)
Year
No trend
Increase in frequency of heavy rainfall events (> 100 mm/day)
Rainfall Extremes
Number of rainy days y = -0.1653x + 104.37
R2 = 0.0664
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
12019
71
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Year
Day
s
Number of days with rain >= 100 mmy = 0.4161x + 63.581
R2 = 0.0563
0
20
40
60
80
100
12019
71
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Year
Day
s
Source : S. Baidya ,DHM
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Death Missing Injured
Western Nepal flood
(13-14 August 2014)96 115 32
People
Heavy rainfall of 13-15th August, 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
0
400
800
1200
1600
1-J
un
12-J
un
23-J
un
4-J
ul
15
-Ju
l
26
-Ju
l
6-A
ug
17-A
ug
28-A
ug
8-S
ep
19-S
ep
30-S
ep
Rain
fall
(%
)
Rain
fall
(m
m)
Date
Accum. Normal
Accum. 2014(mm / %)
Surkhet
Characteristics of Winter Precipitation
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88
27
28
29
30
Dadeldhura
Dhangadhi
Jumla
Surkhet
Nepalgunj Dang
Bhairahawa
Pokhara
Simara
Kathmandu
Okhaldhunga
Dhankuta
Biratnagar
Taplejung
Dipayal
Fig.2: Winter normal precipitation (mm)
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
y = 0.0069x + 47.408 y = -1.419x + 2904.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
19
71
19
76
19
81
19
86
19
91
19
96
20
01
20
06
20
11
Ra
infa
ll (
mm
)Year
Winter droughts becoming more frequent
Severe Extreme droughts observed in the recent decade Winter Fog/ cold wave
-3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1.0
SPI in 2006 drought
SPI in 2008 drought
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0
-3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5
SPI in 2009 drought
Winter drought
• Water table decreased
• Wells, tube-wells, natural water
spouts dried
• Water shortage
• Energy crisis declared (up to 16
hours of load-shedding/day)
SPI Value: Drought Category:
2.00 and above Extremely wet
1.50 to 1.99 Very wet
1.00 to 1.49 Moderately wet
-0.99 to 0.99 Near normal
-1.00 to -1.49 Moderately dry
-1.50 to -1.99 Severely dry
-2.00 and less Extremely dry
Source : S. Baidya ,DHM
Climate Activities-DHM
Extreme Rainfall and Air Temperature Monitoring
Daily temperature monitoring and Rainfall monitoring
Monsoon Monitoring
Weekly, Monthly and Seasonal Climate Reports
Year Book publication
Daily Temperature Monitoring at Kathmandu Airport
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)
Day (Month)
Daily Maximum temperature
Nor mal 20 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)
Day (Month)
Daily Minimum temperature
Nor mal 20 12
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1-Ju
n
8-Ju
n
15-J
un
22-J
un
29-J
un
6-Ju
l
13-J
ul
20-J
ul
27-J
ul
3-A
ug
10-A
ug
17-A
ug
24-A
ug
31-A
ug
7-S
ep
14-S
ep
21-S
ep
28-S
ep
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y (°
C)
Day (Month)
Daily Maximum temperature anomaly
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1-Ju
n
8-Ju
n
15-J
un
22-J
un
29-J
un
6-Ju
l
13-J
ul
20-J
ul
27-J
ul
3-A
ug
10-A
ug
17-A
ug
24-A
ug
31-A
ug
7-S
ep
14-S
ep
21-S
ep
28-S
ep
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y (°
C)
Day (Month)
Daily Minimum temperature anomaly
Sourc
e :
DH
M
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1-J
un
12-J
un
23-J
un
4-J
ul
15-J
ul
26-J
ul
6-A
ug
17-A
ug
28-A
ug
8-S
ep
19-S
ep
30-S
ep
Rain
fall
(%
)
Rain
fall
(m
m)
Date
Accum. Normal
Accum. 2014(mm / %)
Janakpur
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1-J
un
12-J
un
23-J
un
4-J
ul
15-J
ul
26-J
ul
6-A
ug
17-A
ug
28-A
ug
8-S
ep
19-S
ep
30-S
ep
Rain
fall
(%
)
Rain
fall
(m
m)
Date
Accum. Normal
Accum. 2014(mm / %)
Kathmandu
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1-J
un
12-J
un
23-J
un
4-J
ul
15-J
ul
26-J
ul
6-A
ug
17-A
ug
28-A
ug
8-S
ep
19-S
ep
30-S
ep
Rain
fall
(%
)
Rain
fall
(m
m)
Date
Accum. Normal
Accum. 2014(mm / %)
Simara
Monsoon 2014 Accumulated Rainfall
Source : DHM
Nearly 87%
Nepal Average Monsoon Rainfall in 2014
Main Objectives
• Increase government capacity to mitigate Climate-related hazards by
improving the accuracy and timeliness of weather and flood forecasts.
• Early Warnings for climate vulnerable communities.
• Developing agricultural management information system services to
help farmers to mitigate climate-related production risks.
Project: Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) ,
Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards (BRCH)
Under PPCR – BRCH project:
• Establishment of 3 Radio sound Stations ( Vertical profile of
Atmosphere).
• Establishment of 100 AWS (15 Agro met) and 74 Hydrological
stations
Establishment of 3 Weather Radar Stations to cover whole Nepal.
Establishment of GIS Lab
• Improvement of Forecasting skills 3 to 5 days
• Improvement of Seasonal forecasting skills.
• Developing agricultural management information system services to
help farmers to mitigate climate-related production risks
-Agro Advisory and weather based Crop insurance for Formers in
25 pilot districts
AMIS Projects Pilot Districts
Proposed agro call center
Proposed SMS services
Proposed web portal
Drought related activities in Nepal
• Winter Drought monitoring -few case study using SPI ( DHM)
• Satellite Remote sensing based Crop Monitoring System (ICIMOD)
• Agro Advisory and weather based Crop insurance for Formers in 25
Pilot districts in Nepal ( PPCR project ( MoAD/DHM /NARC)
• Use of Space Technology for Drought Monitoring and Early
Warning in Nepal – (UNESCAP up coming project )