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Coupled and Forced Solutions of MJO: Implication for Prediction
Bin Wang, Xiouhua Fu, Tim LiUniversity of Hawaii
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Are MJO or boreal summer ISO reproducible in forced AGCM simulation (AMIP)?
Atmospheric only model may significantly loss of reproducibility and predictability.
Bifurcation of the coupled and forced solutions due to IC and BC errors.
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Atmospheric Model: ECHAM4.6 T30 (3.75o).Ocean Model: 2.5-layer Intermediate Model, 2ox1o
Coupling: daily, Full, No flux correctionIntegration 16 years (10 years) (CTL and sensitivity)
Regional Hybrid Coupled Model
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Boreal summer ISO (northward propagation over
Indian monsoon region)
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Coherent evolutions among convection, surface winds and SST (Observations)
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Phase Relationships between Rainfall and SST
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Design of four sensitivity experiments
Labels Initial Condition
Boundary Condition
CPL(CTL) ECMWF analysis at January 1, 1988
Direct coupling (Save SST for ECHAMDATM)
ECHAM (BC): Forced
Same as above Truncated SST from CPL
CPL(BC)
Same as above Indirect coupling(Pass truncated SST to atmosphere)
ECHAM (IC)Forced
1-day difference Forced by SST from CPL(I)
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CMAP Rainfall
Coupled
Daily Forced
Mean Forced
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CPL(CTL)
ECHAM (BC) Forced
CPL(BC)
ECHAM (IC)Forced
Fu and Wang 2003
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Regressed Fields from the Control Coupled Run
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Thank You !