![Page 1: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Crop Outlook
Chad Hart
Center for Agricultural and Rural Development
Iowa State UniversityE-mail: [email protected]
July 17, 2008
Iowa Independent Bankers Convention
Okoboji, Iowa
![Page 2: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Historical Corn Prices
Source: CBOT
![Page 3: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Historical Soybean Prices
Source: CBOT
![Page 4: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Factors to Follow
Crop progressMacroeconomic conditionsEnergy prices/Biofuel developmentExport picture/Dollar movementsLivestock adjustmentsSouth American policies and acreage
response
![Page 5: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Crop Progress
Source: USDA, Crop Progress report, July 2008
![Page 6: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
U.S. Corn Supply and Use
Source: USDA, WASDE report, July 2008
![Page 7: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
Source: USDA, WASDE report, July 2008
![Page 8: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Corn Futures Prices
Source: CBOT, 7/15/2008
![Page 9: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Soybean Futures Prices
Source: CBOT, 7/15/2008
![Page 10: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
South American Corn Area
Source: USDA
![Page 11: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
South American Soybean Area
Source: USDA
![Page 12: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Exchange Rate Ratios Since 2007
Source: USDA, ERS
![Page 13: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Exchange Rate Futures Ratios
Source: CME, 7/15/2008
![Page 14: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Historical Crude Oil Prices
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
![Page 15: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Crude Oil Futures Prices
Source: NYMEX, 7/15/2008
![Page 16: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Liquid Fuel Usage
Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030(Million Barrels Oil
Equivalent per Day) (Percent of 2004 Value)
United States 20.7 103% 109% 115% 121% 129%
Canada 2.3 100% 100% 104% 104% 104%
Mexico 2.0 110% 115% 130% 135% 145%
Europe 15.6 99% 99% 100% 101% 101%
Japan 5.4 96% 96% 96% 96% 96%
China 6.4 147% 164% 186% 213% 245%
India 2.5 108% 128% 144% 160% 176%
Africa 2.8 118% 139% 154% 164% 175%
Central and South America 5.4 120% 137% 152% 167% 180%
World 82.5 110% 118% 126% 134% 143%
![Page 17: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Renewable Fuels Standard
Source: Renewable Fuels Association
![Page 18: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Ethanol Production
Source: Renewable Fuels Association
![Page 19: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Historical Ethanol Gross Margins
![Page 20: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Projected Ethanol Gross Margins
![Page 21: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Ethanol vs. Gasoline
Source: CBOT and NYMEX, 7/15/2008
![Page 22: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Biodiesel Sales
Source: National Biodiesel Board
![Page 23: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Iowa Price Ratios Since 2007
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service
![Page 24: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Iowa Price Ratios for 2008
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service
![Page 25: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Soybean Oil Futures
Source: CBOT, 7/15/2008
![Page 26: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Ending Thoughts
Macroeconomic conditions and energy prices are key factors for US agriculture
Tight stock situation combined with crop/weather concerns makes for an active market
Watch demand as livestock and biofuel producers react to price movements
Export outlook tied to dollar movements and South American policy shifts
![Page 27: Crop Outlook Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University E-mail: chart@iastate.edu July 17, 2008 Iowa Independent Bankers](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697bfbe1a28abf838ca28d4/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Thanks for your time!
Any questions?