Download - Cruz Can't Win
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CAN H E
WIN?
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Executive Summary Ted Cruz has committed his entire life to the Foundational principles that made
America great. From reciting the Constitution to Chambers of Commerce as a teenager; to his time in the Bush Administration; to his powerful victories before the Supreme Court; and finally, as one of the leading conservatives in the Senate, Ted has been a Courageous Conservative.
If Republicans nominate a conservative in 2016, there is a good chance we can win the White House
The Establishment however never seems to learn that moderates dont win
The 2016 Primary will be completely different from past primaries due to changes to the primary calendar and the number of well-funded candidates
Ted Cruzs leadership role on the most important issues that matter to primary voters: Marriage, Religious Freedom, Immigration, Common Core, ObamaCare, Debt and the Second Amendment uniquely position him to build the coalition of votes necessary to win a crowded primary
Cruz has the most complete portfolio of campaign assets
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign almost won.
Romney lost by only 428,000 votes in just five states:
Ohio 103,000
Florida 70,000
Colorado 113,000
New Mexico 76,000
Nevada 66,000
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign almost won.
He was the one man on the planet who could not use ObamaCare as a wedge issue
Romney HAD NO WEDGE OR MAGNET ISSUE to turn out the voters he needed
Social media amateurs
Campaign manager could not harness the power of data analytics for message creation, message targeting, and performance evaluation
NO GROUND GAME Moderates dont attract block-walkers
Terrible performance with Hispanics
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible team almost won Florida.
In 2012, 49% of the states Cuban Voters supported Obama while 47% supported Romney
Bush won 75% and 78% of the Cuban Vote in 2000 and 2004.
Obama carried Florida by only 70,000 votes
There are 1,400,000 Cubans in Florida
Cuban Cruz would have only needed 66% of the Cuban vote in order to have won Florida
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign lost Ohio due to record African-American turnout.
African-American Voter Participation increased 50% with Obama
In 2012 African-Americans made up 15% of Ohio Voters and they went 96% for Obama
In 2004, African-Americans made up 10%
Black population is flat to declining, roughly 12.1% of Ohios total population
Assuming that African-American support for the Democratic candidate had reverted the 2004 levels results in a vote swing of 193,648 Republicans would have won
Hillary will have to drive African-American turnout 25% over 2004 levels to win Ohio
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign managed to lose Virginia.
Since 2000, African-American citizen voting-age population actually shrank from 20% to 18.7% in Virginia by 2012
Likewise, since 2000, the Hispanic share of potential voters also shrank from 3.4% to 2.5% by 2012
Yet Romney managed to generate a turnout rate among non-Hispanic whites (66.4%) that was not only lower than among African-Americans (69.5%), but lower than among Hispanics (71.9%)
If African-American turnout just reverts to 2004 levels (54.8%) and nothing else changes the Republican presidential nominee will win the state in 2016
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign did not win New Mexico because his Vermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics.
46% of state is Hispanic
Romney lost New Mexico, who has a Republican Governor, by 10 points or 81,000 votes
Romney only captured 21% of the Hispanic vote compared with Bush, who got 40% in 2004
Romneys disgraceful performance was hurt further by the fact that New Mexico former Governor, Gary Johnson, ran as a Libertarian garnering 3.5%
Rafael Ted Cruz can achieve George Bush totals giving him 62,000 additional Hispanics, while the Democrats lose 62,000, would more than offset Romneys 81,000 loss margin
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE with a terrible campaign did not win Colorado because his Vermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics.
Hispanics made up 14% in 2012 and expected to make up 15% in 2016
Romney only received 23% of Hispanic vote versus 40% for Bush in 2004
Cruz achieving Bush numbers with Hispanics and turning out Republicans makes Colorado, who just elected a conservative Senator, a very achievable target
Cruz would still need to turn out additional married, white people in order to carry state
Cruz positioned to do well with the Libertarians in the state
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Looking to 2016
242 296
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Hillary 2016 Strategy
MAKE THE RACE ABOUT HISTORY, NOT HER
Hold on to as many African-American voters as she can
Increase turnout amoung single women to offset reduction of African-American vote and potential losses with Hispanics
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Republican Must Dos for 2016
Perform better with Latino voters in Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada - Target George Bushs average of 40% (he got 56% in Florida)
Shrink the gender gap that has increased to 4% favoring women
Turn out white, married people over the age of 40 by focusing on wedge issues and targeting evangelicals
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Republicans win with wedge and magnet that drive their voters to turnout
issues
Reagan 1980: The Economy and National Security
Bush (Atwater South Carolina Conservative) 1988: Willie Horton/Flag Burning *A+
Bush (Baker Establishment Republican) 1992: No Wedge Issue
Bush 2000: Gay Marriage, Restore Honor and Dignity to the White House
Midterms 2010: ObamaCare
Midterms 2014: ObamaCare/Immigration
Every Senator in 2014 ran as a Ted Cruz Republican
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Moderate Candidates are Losers
More Conservative c GW Bush (2000)"
GW Bush (2004)"
Reagan (1980)"
Reagan (1984)"
McCain (2008)"
Romney (2012)"
GHW Bush (1988)"
GHW Bush (1992)"
Ford (1976)"
Dole (1996)"
0" 12" 23" 35" 46" 58"
Rove won for Bush by driving Evangelical turnout Now he loses by doing the opposite = winning campaign Exception was when Bush 41 ran as a hard conservative in 1988 with Atwater and Reagans help
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The Establishment Never Learns
Operate under the Media-created myth that moderates win elections
Give away through candidate selection key wedge and magnet issues that are must-haves in order to drive turnout and win
Successful Wedge Issues in the past have been:
- Willie Horton/flag burning in 1988
- Gay Marriage, Restoring Honor to the White House in 2000
- ObamaCare in 2010 and 2014
In 2012 they chose the one man on the planet who could not take advantage of the most effective wedge issue: ObamaCare
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The Establishment Never Learns
For 2016 they have chosen, Jeb Bush. The one person on the planet that forfeits Republicans on every Hillary wedge issue:
- National Security
- Immigration
- Future Not Past
- Common Core
- Foreign Money
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Ted Cruz is the only leading candidate who
on has a consistent/strong record the top Clinton wedge issues
Money
Immigration and Common Core Very Important
Common Core
Immigration
Future Not Past
National Security
Foreign
CRUZ
BUSH
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
HUCKABEE
NO
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NO
PAUL
NO
RUBIO
NO
WALKER
NO
NO
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White Vote Shrank in 2012
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Evangelicals are not voting
Evan euca I Voters
Number of
# of Evenfelloel Voters % of Eleotorete
#of CVAPEvangelicals # of Evangelical Voters who
sta ed tiome
22.1 million 21% 74.5
million
52.4 million
25.7 million 21%
79.4 million
53.7 million
30.2 mill ion
23% 83.2
million
53 million
29. 7 million 23%
86. 7 million
57 million
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In 2004 Rove drove conservative and religious voter growth to new highs but that
slowed and stopped progress
POPULATION -0.1 .
. ...:
...
...: ../........................
-0.3 .CONSERVATIVES....... .
.
. . .
.: : .. :
-0.4 .
....
.........
.
. .
-0.5
RELIGIOUS.
0
. '96
. .l .: O -0.6
'04 '08 '12
The only time Republicans got more of the popular vote since 1988.
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WHERE WE ARE TODAY
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GOP NOMINATION CONSIDERATION II
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METHODOLOGY
! 739 autodial phone interviews conducted nationwide among likely Republican primary voters
! Conducted May 15-16, 2015
! Margin of error is +/- 3.6%
! Comparative data results pulled from February 2015 polling
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OF NOTE
! This is a baseline study of Republican primary voter attitudes. The Republican field and attitudes of primary voters are dynamic and we fully expect the underlying structure of the electorate to continue evolving in the coming months.
! Successful vote coalitions among the early primary and caucuses may likely only require 20-40% support.
! This survey was conducted by TargetPoint Consulting for its own use and was not conducted on behalf of any candidate or associated organization.
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CANDIDATE AWARENESS AND CONSIDERATION
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Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you would strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is unlikely you would
ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from 1-7 to rate these candidates. If you dont know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9. Those who selected 1-7 for a candidate were
considered Aware, while those who selected 9 were considered Not Aware. Total
February Awareness 1-7 Aware 9 Not Aware
94 JEB BUSH
MIKE HUCKABEE 92
RAND PAUL 89
CHRIS CHRISTIE 89
MARCO RUBIO 85
TED CRUZ 80
- DONALD TRUMP
RICK PERRY
86
RICK SANTORUM 83
SCOTT WALKER 75
BEN CARSON 70
LINDSEY GRAHAM -
BOBBY JINDAL 69
CARLY FIORINA 50
JOHN KASICH 59 57 43
66 35
69 32
70 30
75 25
75 26
81 19
82 19
84 17
84 16
86 14
86 14
90 10
91 9
94 7
CANDIDATE AWARENESS
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Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you would strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is
unlikely you would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from 1-7 to rate these candidates. If you dont know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9.
Mean Scores 1 Certainly Consider 2-3 Consider 4+9 Neutral 5-6 Not Consider 7 Certainly Not Consider
MARCO RUBIO 2.99
SCOTT WALKER 3.01
JEB BUSH 3.57
MIKE HUCKABEE 3.48
TED CRUZ 3.51
BEN CARSON 3.31
RAND PAUL 3.80
RICK PERRY 3.90
3.88 BOBBY JINDAL
RICK SANTORUM 4.08
CHRIS CHRISTIE 4.42
CARLY FIORINA 4.09
JOHN KASICH 4.00
DONALD TRUMP 4.91
LINDSEY GRAHAM 4.63
*Chart order is by total 1-3 consideration.
3 13 45 17 22
5 15 29 16 35
7 15 59 11 9
5 20 52 11 13
6 23 31 18 22
6 26 39 16 13
6 26 46 12 9
6 31 38 15 11
11 34 26 17 13
19 29 37 8 8
15 33 31 10 12
18 32 24 14 12
18 33 21 13 15
24 29 37 5 5
22 39 24 9 7
CANDIDATE CONSIDERATION
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Comparing the total awareness of each candidate to their 1-3 consideration score we see candidates who have higher awareness and popularity overall (Bush, Rubio, Huckabee, Paul, and Cruz) and we see that a group clustered toward the bottom left quadrant that are less unknown.
CONSIDERATION CONVERSION RATE
WELL-KNOWN LESS POPULAR CANDIDATES WELL-KNOWN TOP CHOICES 100 Paul Bush
Huckabee
Cruz
Christie Perry
Santorum
90 Trump Rubio
80 Walker Graham Jindal
Carson 70 Fiorina
60 Kasich
50
40
30
20
10
LESS KNOWN/UNDERPERFORMING POPULAR LOWER-RECOGNITION 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Total Consideration % 1-3
*Announced/Unannounced candidates are listed based on current status at the time of the poll and does not account for candidates with end of May and June planned announcements
*Conversion rate was calculated by dividing the total consideration (1-3) score by total awareness 1-7.
Tota
l Aw
aren
ess %
Rubio
71% Walker
71% Carson
64% Cruz
57% Huckabee
55% Bush
54% Paul
50% Jindal
46% Perry
45% Santorum
40% Kasich
39% Fiorina
38% Christie
34% Trump
24% Graham
23%
Unannounced Candidates
Announced Candidates
HIGHEST CONSIDERATION V. AWARENESS
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Below is the total consideration (1-3) for each candidate from our February poll and our current May poll.
0 0
Rubio Walker Bush Huckabee Cruz Carson Paul Perry Jindal Santorum Christie Fiorina Kasich Trump* Graham*
*not included in February Poll
FEB
RU
ARY
M
AY
16
20
23 22
25
13
33
29
34 33
35
32
43
37
44 43
47
47
48
43
51 50
54
51
58
53
61
54
COMPARED CONSIDERATIONS
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Below is the change in consideration(1-3) for each candidate from our February poll to our May poll.
FIORINA +12
RUBIO +7
CRUZ +5
PAUL +1
CARSON 0
HUCKABEE -1
-1
-1
JINDAL
KASICH
-3
-3
BUSH
SANTORUM
CHRISTIE -4
WALKER -5
PERRY -6
*Lindsey Graham and Donald Trump were not included in February Poll
CHANGE IN CONSIDERATION
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reasonable compromises to get things done, or should
compromise, even if things dont get done in the short-run?
Social Conservative
Mainstream
Get Things principles
44
Could Support Any
Libertarian
Unsure
CANDIDATE PREFERENCES
Generally speaking what type of
candidate do you prefer nominating?
FEBRUARY 29
MAY 28
24 25
20 Tea Party
16
14 15
5
6
8
9
Do you think that the Republican nominee, if elected president, should reach out to Democrats and work to find
they try to lead on strong conservative principles and not
Stand by
Done
56
In our February poll, the party was split on this issue.
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How would you describe your views in the area of social/fiscal issues?
51
41
34 32
17 12
5 3 2 1 Very Cons
Somewhat Cons
Moderate Somewhat Lib
Very Lib
17#
SOC
IAL
FISC
AL
30% of Republican primary voters are both very socially and very fiscally conservative.
70% are both socially conservative and fiscally conservative.
16% are socially moderate or liberal and fiscally conservative.
ISSUE PREFERENCES
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Below is the political breakdown of our designated clusters. The dotted circles represent the clusters from our February polling and the red circles represent where the clusters are now.
Social
Tea Party 17%
Conservatives
19% Moderates Uncommitted
Partisans
Percentage of cluster that chose get things done
Bubble sizes represent relative size of each cluster.
Perc
enta
ge o
f cl
uste
r tha
t is
bot
h ve
ry fi
scal
ly a
nd s
ocia
lly co
nser
vativ
e
Since our February Poll, we no longer
conservatives. Our February group of
We have also seen the equilibrium of
16%
Conservatives see a cluster of mainstream
establishment voters has fragmented into what we show as mainstream
16% moderates and pragmatic partisans.
the party move slightly less Undecided conservative and more pragmatic.
8% Dissatisfied 10%
14% Mainstream
Moderates Pragmatic
UPDATED POLITICAL CLUSTERING
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We looked at each candidates total consideration score (1-3) and subtracted their derived ballot score to show the potential growth of each
candidate. Below are the current and potential ballot results.
Current Derived Ballot Potential Growth
MARCO RUBIO
SCOTT WALKER
TED CRUZ
MIKE HUCKABEE
JEB BUSH
BEN CARSON
RAND PAUL
RICK PERRY
BOBBY JINDAL
RICK SANTORUM
CHRIS CHRISTIE
CARLY FIORINA
JOHN KASICH
DONALD TRUMP
LINDSEY GRAHAM
*Candidates are rank ordered by potential growth.
9 52 9 44 5 43 9 41 11 40 8 39 6 38
35 1 32
30 3 26 0 25
20 18
0 16
POTENTIAL GROWTH
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We looked at the top derived ballot scores based on voter preference for a particular nominee: social conservative, mainstream, tea party, any, or libertarian candidate. Below are each of their top 6
choices and the number of undecided voters based on these nominee types.
Social Conservatives Mainstream Tea Party Could Support Any Libertarian
12 19 14 17 23 HUCKABEE BUSH CRUZ RUBIO PAUL
11 11 11 11 12 BUSH RUBIO WALKER WALKER BUSH
10 9 9 10 7 WALKER HUCKABEE CARSON BUSH WALKER
9 8 7 7 6 CARSON WALKER PAUL CARSON CARSON
9 7 7 6 6 RUBIO CARSON HUCKABEE HUCKABEE CHRISTIE
4 7 5 6 5 CRUZ CHRISTIE RUBIO PAUL RUBIO
32 24 27 34 UNDECIDED 32 UNDECIDED UNDECIDED UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
BALLOT AND NOMINEE TYPE
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TED HAS REAL
GROWTH POTENTIAL
WITH EVANGELICALS
AND LIBERTARIANS.
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THIS PRIMARY IS REALLY DIFFERENT.
Schedule is significantly different than past years favors more conservative candidate
The first 14 states (through Super Tuesday) have 574 delegates (83%) that will come from conservative states
At least six well-funded candidates making it very difficult for Establishment to destroy the conservative challenger
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The Calendar leans
SOUTH DELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY
South North Total
477
69/o
31 /o
216
693
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The Calendar leans
RIGHT DELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY
Conservative
7310
507
Moderate
2710
186
Total
693
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The Calendar leans
CRUZ
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A number of well-financed candidates
Historically, the Establishment Candidate uses his financial resources to destroy the leading challenger who has already been weakened by the other challenger candidates.
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TED IS WELL-POSITIONED
TO WIN THE PRIMARY.
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Cruz has been consistently right on the issues that matter most to primary voting blocs.
Sources: " https://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidates" http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJNBCpoll05042015.pdf " "
http://www.ontheissues.org/Jeb_Bush.htm " http://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htm "
BUSH
HUCKABEE
CRUZ
PAUL
RUBIO
WALKER
EDUCATION / COMMON CORE
IMMIGRATION
SOCIAL / RELIGIOUS ISSUES
STRONG NATIONAL DEFENSE
DEFICIT / GOVT SPENDING
OBAMACARE
SECOND AMENDMENT
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Cruz campaign has the most complete portfolio of Assets
Small Dollar Donors
Large Super PAC
Social Media Followers
Grass Roots Support
Sophisticated Data Analytics
CRUZ
BUSH
?
NO
NO
HUCKABEE
NO
NO
PAUL
NO
RUBIO
WALKER
?
?
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Cruz in best position to run an Obama caliber campaign in 2016
A proven data-driven infrastructure that is a small dollar fundraising and voter ID juggernaut. Eight full-time data scientists on staff.
Raised $10 million from 90,000 donors in the first 100 days of campaign
Campaign managed by great executives not people who can write and produce TV commercials
Creative/Messaging Team led by one of the worlds premier firms hired by the Establishment to rebrand the Party - They want to work with Ted. The creative minds behind the Salvation Army Campaign, Chick-fil-A, Home Depot, Paul Harvey I am a farmer Superbowl ad
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Cruz in best position to run an Obama caliber campaign in 2016
Cruz has set a new standard for social media for Republicans both in the quantity of follower but just as importantly the effectiveness of the interactions.
Has 8 million email addresses
Grassroots organization is nationwide not just Iowa the only candidate even close is Paul
Great communicator that can appeal to young people
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Ted showing great strength in must-win South Carolina
Straw Poll Results
Greenville and Spartanburg victories are most impressive as they are two largest and most populated GOP counties in the state
Greenville
Anderson County
Spartanburg
Aiken
Dorchester
Cruz
28%
27%
32%
36%
30% Bush
5%
1%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Carson
9%
1%
N/A
N/A
16%
Graham
3%
6%
N/A
N/A
4%
Huckabee
3%
9%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Paul
3%
1%
7%
6%
7%
Rubio
8%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Walker
22%
25%
30%
32%
25%
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Enhancing Cruz Brand
A powerful biography comes out in late June
Associated book tour
Richards Group hired along with a team of branding experts
Keep the Promise rolls out a positive campaign in key primary states around the first debate
Real upside potential - Ted is polling very low with Evangelicals as many are unaware of his deep faith
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3 of the Top 10 Donors on Ted Cruz
Top Individual Donors to Conservative Super PACs 2012
Rank Donor Total Given 1 Adelson, Sheldon & Miriam $91,780,000 2 Simmons, Harold $25,665,000 3 Perry, Robert $23,450,000 4 RickeFs, John $13,050,000 5 Mercer, Robert $5,409,354 6 Thiel, Peter $4,735,000 7 Childs, John $4,225,000 8 Perenchio, A Jerrold & Margaret $4,100,000 9 Rowling, Robert $3,635,000 10 McNair, Robert $3,175,000
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To elect a principled conservative, donors cant wait until November or December to decide
Television rates start to skyrocket in December making it impossible for candidates to define themselves and their views so therefore are defined by the Media
By January there is limited space at any price
In September the major news organizations will decide which reporters will cover which candidates the stronger the candidate is with money is the key factor to get the most well-known reporters which translates into earned media
Fundraising success breeds fundraising success
The competition for grassroots leaders is intense and fundraising momentum is a key driver
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CAN H E
WIN?