CSME Integration Possibilities- An Oil and Gas Perspective
T. M. T. M. BoopsinghBoopsingh
Sherbourne Sherbourne Conference CentreConference Centre
Barbados, 29th June 2006
Outline
International Energy Overview- Geographic, Economic and Global Realities
A Brief Review of Inputs - Geographic and Regional Overview
- The Trinidad and Tobago Downstream industry
- A Regional demand Analysis
The Way Forward – Regional & National Issues
- The Opportunities
International Energy Overview
Section 1
International Perspectives- The Region in the World
Western Energy Security World Economic Growth
China & India make the new difference
Saudi vs Iraqi Resources US vs European/Japanese Interests Russian Oil and now GAS Other US Needs, Interests & Inputs
Imports, Transportation, Sales, Technology
The Caribbean’s Energy Needs
Bulk vs Supplemental
Urban vs Rural
Primary vs Secondary Energy
Electricity vs Transportation
Medium term vs Long term
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005 © BP 2005
World Energy Growth
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
World excl China Chinamtoe p.a.
Annual growth in world energy consumption
World Energy Demand to 2025
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1980 2000 2005 2015 2025
To
tal
En
erg
y C
on
sum
pti
on
,Q
uad
rill
ion
BT
U
0
2
4
6
8
10
Po
pu
lati
on
To
tal,
B
illi
on
Per
son
s
Total Energy Population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2004; EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
Projected Contributions from "New" Renewable Energy Sources in 2020
ETW "Minimum" ETW "Maximum"Mtoe % of total Mtoe % of total
Modern biomass 243 45 561 42
Solar 109 20 355 26Other (wind, geothermal, small hydro, waste) 187 35 429 32
Total 539 100 1345 100% of Total Primary Energy Consumption 3-4 8 -12
Source: WEC’s ETW 2000.NB. In 1990 new renewables contributed 164 Mtoe (1.9% to total energy demand).
The Coming Age of Natural Gas
Infrastructure issues
Gas Hydrates
Fuel Cells
Sources of Production for the Caribbean
Sections 2a & 2b
The Sources of Energy - Geographically
US Gulf Coast Venezuela* Trinidad and Tobago# - CSME member Colombia Mexico* West Africa# Other, inc. Brazil, Ecuador, Middle East, etc.
* Oil Exporter # Oil & Gas Exporter
Petroleum Products
Oil, Products & LNG
Oil & Petroleum Products
T&T - Existing Gas Based Plants
1 Natural Gas Liquids Processing Facility 4 LNG Trains (2300 MMscfd) 9 Ammonia Plants (4,485 MTPA) 1 Urea Plant (550 MTPA) 5 Methanol Plants (2,960 MTPA) 4 Iron and Steel Mills (2,560 MTPA) 4 Power Generation Plants - Powergen (3) & Inncogen 1 Offshore Platform Fabrication Yard Other
Refinery Cement Manufacture Light Industrial/Commercial Consumers - 96 2 Gas Fired Air Cooling Projects 4000 CNG powered vehicles
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Gas Chemicals 550 600 640 660 660 700 700 950 1050 1200Metals usage 100 110 130 150 155 160 160 160 180 200Electricity 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260LNG 0 0 210 420 450 475 900 1400 1500 2300
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
MM
SCFD
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Natural Gas Sales : 1997-2006
LNG Gas Chemicals Metals usage Electricity
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
MM
SC
FD
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
T&T Natural Gas Sales
Gas Chemicals Metals usage Electricity LNG
4 LNG Trains
Liquefying Natural Gas
TT / Venezuelan Cross-Border Drilling
Pricing Natural Gas in T&T
Net back Pricing based on Product sales prices
– LNG, Methanol, Ammonia,
Alternate Fuel Pricing e.g. Fuel Oil/Crude Oil
Net back Pricing based on Product sales prices - Steel; Aluminium ?
Domestic Pricing - TTEC, Small Manufacturers.
Proposed New Plants in
Trinidad
Alutrint Aluminium Smelter Aluminium Wire, Rods, Wheels, Parts AnsaMcal/Terra UAN Ammonia complex Clico Energy et. al. UAM Ammonia
complex Eastern Caribbean Gas Pipeline Alcoa Smelter New Refinery at Pointe-a-Pierre Westlake Ethylene Complex, etc,
A Demand Analysis
in the Caribbean
Section 2c
Role of Indigenous Resources in Meeting Energy Demand - 2000
Country/Item Hydro in Power Generation %
Oil/Gas Production in Petroleum Demand %
Suriname 74 82
Dominica 50 -
Haiti 47 -
St. Vincent 32 -
Dominican Rep. 8 -
Jamaica 2 -
Cuba 1 31 (55% by 2004)
Barbados - 19
Trinidad & Tobago
- 190 Source: T.A. Byer
Petroleum Product Demand in 2000 (BBls/Day)
– North Caribbean Markets
Product/Country
Gasoline
Distillate
RFO Total Of whichPower-%
Cuba 10,800 43,800 93,100 160,500 37
Jamaica 11,500 10,900 40,150 65,600 41
Haiti 2,400 6,950 310 10,330 13
Dom. Rep.
27,270 52,600 24,800 125,060 31
Puerto Rico
62,950 24,250 60,000 170,000 45
Source: T.A. Byer
Petroleum Product Demand in 2000
(BBls/day)
– Eastern Caribbean Markets
Product/Country
Gasoline
Distillate
RFO Total Of whichPower-%
Guadeloupe
3,150 4,800 3,200 12,400 31
Dominica 300 200 20 600 25
Martinique 2,750 5,700 4,050 13,400 33
St. Lucia 850 1,950 20 2,950 40
St. Vincent
450 650 - 1,200 23
Barbados 1,900 5,750 2,700 10,800 31
Grenada 540 710 - 1,460 30Source: T.A. Byer
Conclusions of Macro-Economic & Petroleum Demand Analysis
Power Sector is the prime activity for displacing liquid fuels – represented by few corporate entities which facilitates implementation
Transport sector fuels – gasoline, Avjet and diesel oil – substitution more difficult.
Source: T.A. Byer
The Eastern Caribbean Pipeline
Final System LayoutTechnical Considerations
Larger markets and less risky service via Eastern segment to Barbados
Western segment’s small diameter (5”) facilitates minimizing impact of geo-technical hazards in servicing Grenada and St Vincent. Not Commercial.
Interconnect point in Martinique to re-distribute to Central & Northern systems
Access to Fort de France markets
More difficult subsea terrain characterizes Northern route to Guadeloupe and Dominica
Central
Eastern
Western
Northern
T&T – Its Role in the Hemisphere
US LNG Imports
Largest world Ammonia and Methanol
exporter
Deep Water Prospects
U.S. LNG ImportsU.S. LNG Imports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
BCFD
Projected Range of Imports
Cambridge Energy Research Associates“New Realities, New Risks: North American Gas and Power Scenarios Through 2020”
Slide 21 of 31
T&T - Its Role in the Region
US LNG Imports
US Ammonia & Methanol Imports
Deep Water Prospects
Location re Venezuela
Caribbean Refining Center
Small and Strategically positioned
Regional Structures and Issues
Section 3
The Way Forward
Long Term – 1. Solar inc. Photo Voltaic
2. Other inc. Conservation, Energy Security, Diversification
Private Capital - The key to prioritization
Medium Term – Natural Gas & Bio-fuelsa) Eastern Caribbean Pipeline
b) LNG for Northern Caribbean
Domestic Demand Management inc. Price Differentiation, Supply Diversification, Affordability, Trade
Cooperation, Conservation
Regional and National Structures
REAP – a critical Institutional product Cooperating within the ACS Using Market related pricing Partnering J/V’s and/with IOC’s Facilitate Refining, Shipping & Trading Establish credible Regulatory Agencies
New downstream
potential
Steel and Steel products Aluminium and its products Gas based Petroleum Products Natural Gas in Cooling CNG in land transportation Ethylene based Plastics
New Trading potential
Alumina and Aluminium products
Forest and wood products
New Petroleum Products
Fertilisers and by-products
Plastics
THE ENDTHE END
Oh to be like this!Oh to be like this!
Thank Thank you for your attention.
ur attention.