![Page 1: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CSUGlobal modeling and climate effects
Jack Kodros, Jeff Pierce, and the CSU team
![Page 2: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Goal
While the data suggest that improving biofuel combustion devices will benefit health,
what is the effect on climate?
![Page 3: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Goal
While the data suggest that improving biofuel combustion devices will benefit health,
what is the effect on climate?
Current project: Uncertainties in aerosol emissions/properties →
Uncertainties in aerosol climate forcings
![Page 4: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Goal
While the data suggest that improving biofuel combustion devices will benefit health,
what is the effect on climate?
Current project: Uncertainties in aerosol emissions/properties →
Uncertainties in aerosol climate forcings
e.g. where do we need help?!
![Page 5: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Biofuel vs. cookstoves
● We focus here on biofuel (mostly) due to current emissions inventories
● Biofuel for as other energy sources (e.g. heating/lighting) is included here
● Coal as cookstove fuel is not included as biofuel– We perform one sensitivity simulation to test this over
Asia
![Page 6: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Biofuel Climate Effects
● GHGs: CO2, CH4, VOCs
● Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?)● Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect
(affect cloud albedo/lifetime/amount) (??)● Black carbon on snow (?)● Aerosol driven circulation changes (???)
??? - level of uncertainty in magnitude
![Page 7: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Biofuel Climate Effects
● GHGs: CO2, CH4, VOCs
● Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?)● Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect
(affect cloud albedo/lifetime/amount) (??)● Black carbon on snow (?)● Aerosol driven circulation changes (???)
??? - level of uncertainty in magnitude
![Page 8: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
GEOS-Chem-TOMAS
● GEOS-Chem version 9.02
– 4 x 5º horizontal resolution
– 47 vertical layers
– GEOS-5 met fields● TOMAS
– Aerosol microphysics
– 15 size sections: 3nm – 10 μm
– Species: sulfate, sea-salt, OA, BC, dust
![Page 9: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
GEOS-Chem-TOMAS
● GEOS-Chem version 9.02
– 4 x 5º horizontal resolution
– 47 vertical layers
– GEOS-5 met fields● TOMAS
– Aerosol microphysics
– 15 size sections: 3nm – 10 μm
– Species: sulfate, sea-salt, OA, BC, dust BASE EMISSIONS DETAILS
● BC and OA emission mass from Bond et al. (2007) (biofuel only) ● Lognormal size distribution with median D
p=100 nm and σ=2.0
![Page 10: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
BC and OA Massincreases due to biofuel
BC Boundary Layer % ChangeGlobal Mean: 30%
OA Boundary Layer % ChangeGlobal Mean: 8%
![Page 11: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Key uncertainties to test
![Page 12: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Key uncertainties to test
● Total mass emissions
![Page 13: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Key uncertainties to test
● Total mass emissions● BC:OA ratio● Hygroscopicity
Chemical properties
![Page 14: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Key uncertainties to test
● Total mass emissions● BC:OA ratio● Hygroscopicity● Emissions median diameter● Emissions modal width
Chemical properties
“Aged” particlesize
![Page 15: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Key uncertainties to test
● Total mass emissions● BC:OA ratio● Hygroscopicity● Emissions median diameter● Emissions modal width● Optics
Chemical properties
“Aged” particlesize
![Page 16: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Key uncertainties to test
● Total mass emissions● BC:OA ratio● Hygroscopicity● Emissions median diameter● Emissions modal width● Optics● Residential coal (not included in base inventory)
Chemical properties
“Aged” particlesize
![Page 17: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Key uncertainties to test
● Total mass emissions● BC:OA ratio● Hygroscopicity● Emissions median diameter● Emissions modal width● Optics● Residential coal (not included in base inventory)● Background SOA● Nucleation
Chemical properties
“Aged” particlesize
Non-biofuel model parameters
![Page 18: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Direct Radiative EffectUncertainties due to optics only
![Page 19: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
DRE – Core-ShellGlobal Mean: +0.007 W m-2
![Page 20: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Assumptions for optics calculations
Internal
Core-Shell (absorptive OA)
Core-Shell
Ext*1.5 (absorptive OA)
Ext*1.5
External
*1.5
*1.5
![Page 21: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
+0.021 [W m
-2]to
-0.008 [W m
-2]
![Page 22: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Cloud Albedo Indirect Effect
![Page 23: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Cloud Albedo Indirect EffectGlobal Mean: -0.006 W m-2
![Page 24: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Increases in primary emissionscause a cooling
Cloud Albedo Indirect EffectGlobal Mean: -0.006 W m-2
![Page 25: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Increases in primary emissionscause a cooling
Cloud Albedo Indirect EffectGlobal Mean: -0.006 W m-2
Aerosol/cloud feedbackscause a warming
![Page 26: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Increases in primary emissionscause a cooling
Cloud Albedo Indirect EffectGlobal Mean: -0.006 W m-2
Aerosol/cloud feedbackscause a warming
Non-Linear!!!
![Page 27: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Sensitivity Simulations
![Page 28: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Glo
bal-m
ean
dire
ct a
nd in
dire
ct e
ffect
s
![Page 29: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Sensitivity to emission mass
Double massemissions
Reduce emissions by 90%
Glo
bal-m
ean
dire
ct a
nd in
dire
ct e
ffect
s
![Page 30: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Sensitivity to emission mass
Double massemissions
Reduce emissions by 90%
Glo
bal-m
ean
dire
ct a
nd in
dire
ct e
ffect
s
Non-linear responses in AIE!
![Page 31: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Sensitivity to BC:OA
BC:OA*2
BC:OA*0.5
Glo
bal-m
ean
dire
ct a
nd in
dire
ct e
ffect
s
![Page 32: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Sensitivity to emission size distribution
Smallerparticles
Largerparticles
Narrowerdistribution Wider
distribution
Glo
bal-m
ean
dire
ct a
nd in
dire
ct e
ffect
s
![Page 33: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Glo
bal-m
ean
dire
ct a
nd in
dire
ct e
ffect
s
![Page 34: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
DRE: -0.02 to +0.06 W m-2
AIE: +0.01 to -0.02 W m-2
Glo
bal-m
ean
dire
ct a
nd in
dire
ct e
ffect
s
![Page 35: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
DRE: -0.02 to +0.06 W m-2
AIE: +0.01 to -0.02 W m-2
Glo
bal-m
ean
dire
ct a
nd in
dire
ct e
ffect
s
Similar magnitudes as GHG forcing from biofuel on 100 yr timescale
![Page 36: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Strong regional effects/uncertainties!
![Page 37: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
If you remember1 thing from this presentation
● Uncertainties in aerosol-climate effects trump signal
● We don't even know the overall sign
![Page 38: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Semi-related rant!
● Uncertainties in aerosol-climate effects trump signal● We don't even know the overall sign● Folks promoting BC controls as means of cooling
climate are overconfident, in my opinion– (Unless can control BC w/o changing OC and size
distributions)
![Page 39: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Semi-related rant!
● Uncertainties in aerosol-climate effects trump signal● We don't even know the overall sign● Folks promoting BC controls as means of cooling
climate are overconfident, in my opinion– (Unless can control BC w/o changing OC and size
distributions)
Improve for health → WinImprove for climate → Uncertain
![Page 40: CSU Global Modeling and Climate EffectsBiofuel Climate Effects GHGs: CO 2, CH4, VOCs Aerosol direct effect (scatter/absorb sunlight) (?) Aerosol indirect and semi-direct effect (affect](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071415/6110670800ddb80b847aa8e0/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Where modelers need help!
● Direct effect:– Total mass emissions
– “Aged” optical properties (mixing, lensing, BrC)
– BC:OC ratio
– “Aged” size distributions
● Indirect effect– Total mass emissions
– “Aged” size distributions