Current situation and
potential effects of trade
liberalization between EU
and EAEU
Diana Galoyan
EAEU benefits
� First, the EU is the largest trade partner
for Armenia, Russia and Kazakhstan:
more than one half of the Russian
Federation's trade volume is attributable
to the EU; and Russia, in turn, is the
European Union's third largest trade
partner.
� Second, the EU could play the decisive
role in modernizing the countries in the
Eurasian integration project.
EU Benefits
� The EAEU has a large market for theexport of EU manufactured goods andfood products (over 184 mln people)
� The EAEU is a source of cheapresources (oil, gas, coal, lumber, metals,etc.) which is very important for keepingthe EU economy competitive in theglobal market.
� The EAEU has a relatively high-qualifiedlabor force.
Volume Indices of GDP of EAEU
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EAEU
Armenia
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Russia
EAEU trade
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
EU
IntraEAEU
EUEA member state import
structure
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Russia
33,7
57,642,7 41,6
8
21
19,3
19,66,7
35,6
45,3
23,137,7
51,7 56,4
Other
EU
EAEU
EUEA member state Export
structure
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Russia
26
52
10,9
30,2
9,7
28,4
26,6
50,2 13,8
36,2
45,6
21,6
38,9
56 54,1
Other
EU
EAEU
Neighborhood benefits
� The three Baltic states: An increase ofexports to the EAEU by 80%. GPDgrowth by 1.2% to 1.8%.
� Poland: An increase of exports to theEAEU by 70%. GPD growth by 0.5%.
� Ukraine: An increase of overall exportsby 26%. GPD growth by 5%.
� Moldova: real GDP per capita inMoldova would increase by 6.3%
FK coefficient
Country Export FK coefficient of
Armenia
Import FK coefficient of
Armenia
Russia 0.08 0.49
Belarus 0.10 0.50
Kazakhstan 0.07 0.55
EU 0.14 0.50
FK � 1 � 12� Xia∑ � Xia �Xib∑ �Xib
�
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Conclusion
� creation of a free trade zone will allow theEuropean Union to have privileged access toan important export market.
� the abolition of duties under the free tradeagreement between the EU and the EAEU inshort term might not have a positive effect,
� the establishment of EU – EaP – EAEUnegotiation platform might help to findcommon and mutually acceptableapproaches to such issues as technicalregulations, customs procedures and rules oforigin.
Thank you