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CUSTOMER DISCOVERY & MARKET DEVELOPMENT Dan Gilbert Gioia Messinger UCSD April 2016
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“PICTURE A PEBBLE ON A BEACH AS VIEWED FROM THE MOON – YOUR MARKET VISIBILITY IS SMALLER THAN THAT.”
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Investigation Design Launch In Market Ramp
Launch Day Discovery issues understood
Release to production
Market Opportunity – match your capabilities to a benefit
Customer – validate and understand their needs
Channels – reaching your customer
Market Development – developing customer awareness and desire
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
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Market Opportunity
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Investigation Design Launch In Market Ramp
“How will you make money…and how much might you make?”
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Market Opportunity Your opportunity landscape
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
New Market Category Competitive Product Market extension extension grab accessory
Oculus
Nest
HP OfficeJet
Vizio TVs
Phone cases
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Market Opportunity Your opportunity landscape
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
New Market Category Competitive Product Market extension extension grab accessory
Consumer SMB Business
Product Product <->Service Service/App
Impulse purchase Considered purchase
Buy sight Touch Need trial Integration unseen product experience requirements
Use immediately Requires set-up Professional Installation
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Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
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New Market Category Competitive Product Market extension extension grab accessory
Consumer SMB Business
Product Product <->Service Service/App
Impulse purchase Considered purchase
Buy sight Touch Need trial Integration unseen product experience requirements
Use immediately Requires set-up Professional Installation
Market Opportunity Your opportunity landscape
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
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Market Opportunity Discovering your Target Market
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Layout out the potential top down. • Match your capability to broad
growing markets • Understand existing players in that
ecosystem • Articulate a benefit you can provide • Start learning
Forecast the volume bottoms up. • How you will reach your users. • What you can afford
Your forecast ramp
Total market
Market for customer segment(s)
Market share
Units/partner
Partners + $$
Market share/partner
Channel partners addressing market
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Market Opportunity Segmenting your market
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Attitudinal Segmentation Behavioral Segmentation
“At least half of your customers will come from one segment”
Product research focus. How you reach your customers.
How customers think. What customers do.
• I like The Walking Dead • I read Wall Street Journal • I regularly go to FIT club • I shop at HomeDepot • I like to cook
• I feel secure in my home • I love Apple gear • Gen 1 products have issues • I’m skeptical of most claims • I seek value
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Market Opportunity How will you make money?
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
• Standalone hardware • Product + Service • Subscription • Razor/Razor blade • SAAS variants • Freemium • Ad supported • And more….
Types of Business Models Business Model Determines: 1. Investment required. 2. Your success drivers:
• User acquisition • Profitability/customer • Product usage • Service connect rate • Consumable connect rate
3. Pricing strategy 4. Partner dependencies
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Market Opportunity Define your Product or Service
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
The spirit of this process lies in intuition: Develop an intuitive understanding of your targeted user’s need. • What your target customers are doing now? • What are the driving trends for your market? • What does the future look like? • What do you bring to the market? • What are your external dependencies? • How do your capabilities match Target Customer needs?
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Market Opportunity Metrics & Gotchas
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Measure: Watch for: Realistic Performa that outlines the market opportunity defined. Market share Forecast Financial metrics
• Investment not matching a competitor’s investments.
• Unrealistic growth rates. • Team too lean, or too big. • Thinking Marketing/Sales is free. • Not hard enough on what
constitutes an offering someone else would buy.
• Mistaking niche for mainstream
“You can have “time”, “schedule”, or “cost”, but you can’t have all three.”
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Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Investigation Design Launch In Market Ramp
Customer
“Achieve Product/Market fit, and then accelerate”
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Customer Understanding your Customer
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
• Market research Market size, market dynamics, market need.
• Customer discovery Find customers early to test hypothesis.
• Customer validation Is anyone willing to pay/use this?
• Purchase criteria Understand how people buy, why they buy, when they buy and how they think about your product.
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Customer Measuring User Needs
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
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Customer Value Proposition
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
PRODUCT NAME provides PRIMARY B ENEFIT for EXPECTED COST
HP OfficeJet All in One printer provides home color printing, copying, and scanning for $129 (…plus the cost of ink cartridges)
Spotify music services provides free music streaming if you listen to intermittent ads (…unless you pay for monthly subscription)
Amazon web services provides secure and scalable computing infrastructure for very low-cost (…but you must be a very experienced programmer).
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Customer Value Proposition
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Examples of Costs: • Product price • Watching ads • Providing permission • Learning curve • Reputation costs • Integration costs • Training of staff • Migration off old process
PRODUCT NAME provides PRIMARY B ENEFIT for EXPECTED COST
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Customer Assessing the Competition
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Product/Service teardowns
Analysts and trade associations
Ecosystem partners/Suppliers
Call them
Customer interviews
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Customer Positioning
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
PRODUCT NAME is a PRODUCT CATEGORY that helps PRIMARY AUDIENCE reach PRIMARY BENEFIT unlike the COMPETITION that requires SOME FORM OF COST
VUEZONE is a VIDEO CAMERA SYSTEM that helps WORKING MOMS keep an eye on their children at home from anywhere, unlike current WEBCAMS which require messy wires, complex setup and allow PC only viewing. Key Benefits • Peel and stick wirefree cameras • App supporting iOS and Android • Simple setup • Add more cameras easily
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Customer Branding
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
DO ü Treat your Brand as a promise. ü Use a tagline. Brands are a handle given a name. ü Have clear and supportive message points. ü Give your Brand time -- brands are created by customers
over years. ü Trust the value. Measuring brand value is difficult. DON’T • None but the largest brands need sub-brands. • Company name != Brand != mysite.com • Be causal about your brand – can be destroyed in a fortnight.
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Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Nest Cam Wi-Fi video camera
Nest Learning Thermostat
Nest Protect smoke plus carbon monoxide alarm
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Customer Getting customer feedback
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Rule #1: Don’t believe what customers tell you.
Rule #2: Not all research is worth doing.
Rule #3: Research is expensive and hard – think about the analysis before you launch.
Rule #4: Be very careful not to lead your respondents – watch for bias.
Product concept testing Messaging research Beta testing UI and usability Win-loss Competitive compare AB testing Focus groups Surveys 1:1 interviews Industry experts
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Customer Map research to phase
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Investigation Pre-launch In market Primary objective “Understand user
need” “Deliver Value Proposition”
“Product/market fit”
Consumer & SMB 1:1 interviews Focus groups
UI studies Reseller discussions Beta tests
Quantitative surveys Tracking usage
B2B Partner discussions Experts and analysts
Use a development partner Selective trials
Ecosystem involvement
Tools: Mock-ups Posters & powerpoints Tech demos
Plastic models UI mocks Beta units
Customer panels Customer support
Investigation Design Launch In Market Ramp
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Customer Metrics & Gotchas
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Measure: Watch for: NPS – Net Promoter Score that tracks Customer satisfaction Product turn on rate Product usage attrition rate Specific feature usage
• Treating early adopters as mainstream – the ‘chasm’
• Spread across too many segments • Internal bias that ignores customer
feedback • Ignoring customer learning curve/
adoption costs • Treating customer support as a cost
to be minimized.
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Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Investigation Design Launch In Market Ramp
Channels
“You can have ‘too much’ – retailers do not create demand.”
Telemarketing store.mySite.com
Inbound sales
Direct sales force
Specialty resellers
Mass Merchandisers
Affiliates
Amazon
Big box
Manufacturing reps
Distributers Online resellers
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Channels The test of ‘Product category’
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Position in-store requires volume or $$ Product discovery is very difficult online
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Channels Motivating your partners
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Their financials • Product margins • Revenue generated per sqft or shelf space • Paying for their programs: Circulars, Endcaps, onsite ads Their initiatives • Generate additional store traffic • Amazon – A+ pages • Customer value • Exclusivity -- Differentiation against their competitors Their appeal • Contribution to their brand image • In-store experience • Category expertise – Demo days, associate training, information • Deals and discounts
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Channels store.mySite.com
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Now you own: • Traffic generation • On site promotions • Pricing conflicts • Order processing • Site refresh • Returns
“There is no easy money.”
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Channels Metrics & Gotchas
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Measure: Watch for: Units/mo/channel partner Lift/promotion Returns In-stock inventory Consistency of retail environment
• Channel power. • Disrespecting reseller business
model. • Over-hyped channel marketing
programs. • Using price as promotional tactic • Dependency on Internal sales for
new product launches.
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Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Investigation Design Launch In Market Ramp
Market Development
“ It all comes down to customers telling their friends.”
Customer
$ $ $ $
Driving customer referral
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Market Development Focus on customer retention
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
1. Poor product quality - you miss your Brand promise 2. Poor customer support 3. Poorly executed price increases or product rollovers 4. You fall behind the market 5. You don’t show your customer you care
What drives your customers away?
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Market Development Accelerate via ‘Growth Hacking’
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Growth hacking lives at the intersection of marketing, product, and data science. Brian Balfour, VP Growth HubSpot
1. AirBNB leveraged Craig’s List API, letting uses easily dual post their listings. 2. Twitter redid site early-on based after quantifying customer UI interactions. 3. LinkedIn public Profiles greatly increased their user’s online visibility. 4. YouTube share button adds any video to your site via an embed link. 5. Buffer offers site tools allowing easy content sharing by Buffer users. 6. HotMail added to every email a “PS – I Love You” Hotmail link. 7. Dropbox incents friend recruitment via extra storage space. 8. Facebook (and others) offer embeddable FB widgets back to your profile.
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Market Development Court influencers
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
PR: Effective tactic early in lifecycle Increases in value with time Very cost effective Keeps your ear to the “market” rail Extremely flexible – let’s you react to
‘stories’ in your industry Allows you to manage a crisis Influencers: Analysts Bloggers Tech reporters Trade Associations Key ecosystem players VC and Investment community
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Market Development Building brand equity
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Earned media PR Email marketing Site optimization (SEO) Blogs Content marketing Video White papers
Paid media Radio and TV advertising SEM – Google, etc Affiliate - % of sales Tradeshows and Conference New product showcases Event/mall marketing
Channels POP display Circulars End-caps In-aisle display Demo days
Builds long-lasting value. When you stop investing, the impact quickly ends.
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Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Market Development Customer Support
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Measure: Watch for: Cost per customer acquisition Cost per sale PR coverage Influencer growth Conversion rate on store.mysite.com
• Spending too early before product market fit achieved.
• Reaching for the moon –unrealistic expectations for sales ramp.
• Messy product rollovers that ignore gen 1 customers.
• Addressing Customer Reviews solely with empathetic responses (or bribes).
• Unsold units slowing down the next product launch.
• Forgetting that WOM is ultimate driver of business success.
Market Development Metrics & Gotchas
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
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Investigation Design Launch In Market Ramp
Market Opportunity
Customer
Channels
Market Development
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
Repeat...
Customer Discovery & Market Development
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Dan Gilbert Gioia Messinger
“THANK YOU.”
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Ecosystem Enabling capabilities(and dependencies)
Gioia Messinger | Dan Gilbert Customer Discovery and Market Development UCSD
“Few products standalone, and those that do are making a mistake.”
Data services (e.g Google Translate)
Products you enhance (e.g mobile phone)
Standards required WiFi/BlueTooth
Infrastructure players (e.g. IOT…everyone….)
APIs and integrations (e.g. Sales Force API)
Major Players in Market Ecosystem
(e.g Auto markers)
Vendors & Competitors
Certifications & Approved vendor lists