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The Confluence of Water Resources and
National SecurityWhere, why and how
policy currents converge.
Daene McKinney & Steve Pitman
Transboundary Water Resources
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Water Resources National Security
Water in the landscape (above and
below ground) with current or potential value
to the community and
the environment.
- Western Australia Water and Rivers Commission
Condition of a nation’s safety from threats,
especially threats from
external sources.
- McGraw Hill Online
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Two Perspectives:
Water Resources professionals:
When and how will national security affect water resources?
National Security professionals:
When and how will water affect national security?
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Analysis:
Why, when & how have links developed?
CAUSES
Can we predict future occurrences?
INDICATORS
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River Basin Case Studies Jordan
• Syria, Israel, Jordan Nile
• Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt Indus
• India, Pakistan Tigris-Euphrates
• Turkey, Syria, Iraq
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Jordan Basin Post WWI – Mandates 1948 – State of Israel 1950’s – plans 1960’s – conflicts 1967 – Six Day War PLO attacks 1980’s threats 1990’s treaties 2000’s 2nd Intifadeh
www.glowa-jordan-river.de
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Jordan Basin Politically charged Population 10M+
• double in 30 years Already “water
stressed” Boundary issues Allocation inequities
www.glowa-jordan-river.de
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Nile Basin Interested in 3 of 9
basin countries Egypt
• Lowest riparian• Most dependent• Most powerful• Big US aid recipient
Ethiopia• Contributes most• Uses least• Poorest
Sudan – in betweenwww.thewaterpage.com
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Nile Basin Colonial cash-crop
economies 1929 Treaty Century Storage
Scheme 1959 Treaty Aswan High Dam Cold War politics Civil wars
www.thewaterpage.com
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Indus Basin 1859-1915 - British
build canals for flood control and irrigation
1947 – Partition • India – key headwaters• Pakistan – bulk of canals
and farmland 1948 – India cuts flow,
Pakistani crops fail, Pakistanis call for war
1952-60 – World Bank mediation
Indus Water Treaty
earthtrends.wri.org
www.iucn.org
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Tigris-Euphrates Basin Earliest water conflicts Turkey
• Source of both rivers• GAP - $30B project
Syria very dependent on Euphrates
Iraq totally dependent on both rivers
1975 – Crisis between Iraq and Syria
1990 – Ataturk Dam
earthtrends.wri.org
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AnalysisNational Security-Water Resources Linkage
Common Factors: Arid areas w/ irrigated agriculture Power imbalance (economic/military) Presence of non-water disputes Non-joint development Outside influences*
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CAUSESNational Security-Water Resources Linkage
Jordan Basin• Conflict exists before water disputes• One state alters status by occupying territory
Nile Basin• Lower riparian completely dependent• Powerful country publicly announces link
Indus Basin• Water policy of one state affects interest of
lower riparian Tigris-Euphrates
• Actions fuel unease over future possibilities
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(Old) INDICATORS National Security-Water Resources Linkage
Unilateral development of international river –Postel & Wolf
Change in political boundaries creating new riparians -Wolf
Existing mechanisms unable to cope with changes -Wolf
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Postel & Wolf :
Foreign Policy – September/October 2001
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Previous retrospective indicators1. Unilateral development of a basin2. Change in political boundaries creating new
riparians
New predictive indicators3. Significant non-water-related tensions exist in the
basin 4. At least one basin state’s water resources are
vulnerable or nearly fully utilized
(New) INDICATORS National Security-Water Resources Linkage
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Indicating Linkages Between Water Resources and National Security
At least one indicator from each column implies conditions are present for a water resources-national security policy linkage
Three or four indicators present signifies higher likelihood of policy linkage
Uzbekistan found itself in the position where all four applied, so what did they do?
I. At least one applies:
II. At least one applies:
Unilateral Development Non-Water Tensions
An attempt to unilaterally develop an international river,
often by a regional power. (Postel & Wolf)
Significant non-water-related tensions exist in the basin.
Major Change Scarce/Vulnerable Water
A large or rapid change in the physical setting (such as a new dam or irrigation scheme) or in
the political setting (such as break-up of a country) that
creates new riparians or new international rivers.
(Postel & Wolf)
and
At least one basin state’s water resources are vulnerable or
nearly fully utilized (or both).
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Syr Darya Basin
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Uzbek National Security Policy Related to Water
Water became a National Security Policy issue Decision taken to regarding water resources
• Two new reservoirs built and infrastructure modernized • Invest hard currency• New water management regime• Required relinquish (some) authority
Provided sufficient new storage to capture winter Kyrgyz releases
Uncoupled the basin-wide interconnection between the countries
Provided a secure source of water for economic development